War on the Korean Peninsula: Present-day

[Doktor]

Interesting discussion. So, it is not who will win, but when SK is financially ready to feed the NK.

That is how it will end up, but that is unlikely to be how it starts.

I seriously doubt that. Any movement forward to jump off points will start off by the Chinese cutting off everything and the South will beat the North to the punch.

[zraver]

How many weeks of fuel does NK have to supply its mechanized divisions and artillery supply logistics?

Figure a minimum of 30 days in strategic reserves, but then almost nothing. North Korea has refinery capacity for 71,000 barrels of oil a day, imports 14,000 barrels a day (or did) and produces just under 130 barrels a day domestically. Plus they have a least some of their truck fleet converted to wood burning gassifiers. Gassified trucks not withstanding, if they lose access to imports they are screwed unless they have a secret synthetic fuels industry.

Both North Korea and South Korea began military exercises this month. South Korea's was design to last 2 month. North Korea's lasted 2 days.

[TopHatter]

Disagree, RoK only needs to stabilize the north in terms of welfare and then normal market forces will do the rest allowing the Korean government to focus on infrastructure. China would rather pay someone else to do it. Occupying North Korea has zero advantages for the PRC.

Germany would probably disagree with that I'm sure

[zraver]

Ok, the North Korean VI and VIII Corps can't stop the exodus.

As already stated, it would be the South Koreans marching north, not the North marching south.

That is how it will end up, but that is unlikely to be how it starts.

[Blademaster]

How many weeks of fuel does NK have to supply its mechanized divisions and artillery supply logistics?

An indication, certainly - not sure if it's testament to anything.

When was the last time we had a battalion level mutiny or have an entire division staff shot?

Sir the PLA isn't actually on the border sealing it off. If the PLA/PAP really try to seal the border against a mass exodus it would be sealed.

Ok, the North Korean VI and VIII Corps can't stop the exodus.

Do some research on HARTS. If the balloon goes up the priority missions for air and arty are going to be keeping the North Korean army from breaking through the DMZ and border areas. Taking out the HARTS would eat up most of the UN air and arty assets leaving little to support ground ops. These sites can not only hit the South Korean capitol with 122,130 and 152mm and MLRS fire but they give the Norks the ability to smother the DMZ area with up to 500 tubes per km.

As already stated, it would be the South Koreans marching north, not the North marching south.

[Mihais]

We'll live and see ;)

[zraver]

I won't bet even on that.There are a few things,which go by the name counterbattery,attack helicopters,guided munitions,drones,IMINT and good old style recon(the sort when you just go there and take a long look at everything).Preventing the destruction of Seoul is likely priority no. 1 for the ROK,since the NORKs can't march South.Even if they try,the first thing that needs to be done is taking out their big guns.

Do some research on HARTS. If the balloon goes up the priority missions for air and arty are going to be keeping the North Korean army from breaking through the DMZ and border areas. Taking out the HARTS would eat up most of the UN air and arty assets leaving little to support ground ops. These sites can not only hit the South Korean capitol with 122,130 and 152mm and MLRS fire but they give the Norks the ability to smother the DMZ area with up to 500 tubes per km.

Knocking out that threat is neither easy nor quick and is in reality the Norks biggest preventative against a UN invasion. They hold the RoK capitol, 10.5 million souls/seouleseans and the RoK economy hostage with those sites.

[DPrime]

Nothing about war is simple and unintended consequences abound left, right, and centre but we're not speaking about us. We're speaking about them, the NKs, and the simple fact is that they are not all that unified.

Mutinies and riots are testament to that.

An indication, certainly - not sure if it's testament to anything.

Of course I see your point, sir, but I think putting ourselves into North Korean shoes, as it were (can they afford shoes?), is not going to result in accurate assessments. We just know so damn little about them... Motivation especially.

And as you said earlier, what we do know might just be propaganda from either side. I wonder if even South Koreans can "think" anything like a North Korean at this point.

I'm enjoying this thread very much though. I like the ideas popping up from everyone. Good brainstorm. :)

[Mihais]

If Kim pops his cork...

He can destroy Seoul in short order, nothing any does can prevent that.

I won't bet even on that.There are a few things,which go by the name counterbattery,attack helicopters,guided munitions,drones,IMINT and good old style recon(the sort when you just go there and take a long look at everything).Preventing the destruction of Seoul is likely priority no. 1 for the ROK,since the NORKs can't march South.Even if they try,the first thing that needs to be done is taking out their big guns.

[zraver]

There is no way for the Chinese to seal the border with North Korea. There are two armies there already and smugglers and illegal immigration is still happening. The leakage can't be contained in that mountainous terrain. That is why the Chinese must attack if Kim pops the cork. It's the only way to keep North Koreans in North Korea.

Sir the PLA isn't actually on the border sealing it off. If the PLA/PAP really try to seal the border against a mass exodus it would be sealed.

[zraver]

Zraver,

plan on 30 years, not 20 years to completely rebuild NK and it would be on the order of several trillion dollars, let's say 4 trillion. SK has to get its economy past the $2T mark in order to get through the rebuilding on its own otherwise China would completely dominate NK.

Disagree, RoK only needs to stabilize the north in terms of welfare and then normal market forces will do the rest allowing the Korean government to focus on infrastructure. China would rather pay someone else to do it. Occupying North Korea has zero advantages for the PRC.