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War on the Korean Peninsula: Present-day

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  • Blademaster
    replied
    Originally posted by doppelganger View Post
    Just looking around other than the Israeli chick thread and thought I'd try my hand at some serious matter as well.

    I never understood this thing about North Korea and the world so thought I'd just risk sounding foolish and blurt it out here.

    What IS the world's problem with North Korea?

    I mean, with Pakistan I can understand. It is a rogue country fingering everyone, and is nuclear as well.

    But North Korea is not a terrorist country. Sure they are nuclear and maybe not legally either. But who are they fingering? I don't think they export terror anywhere. I don't think they are militarily a serious threat to any of the big countries being discussed here (China, USA, Japan, South Korea). As the experts here agree, if they were ever to get too frisky, South Korea could finish them off, leave alone China.

    So what is the real problem? That they are a communist country? I'm sure we have all moved on from the cold war era right?

    So why not just leave them alone and let them sink or swim on their own?
    Japan and South Korea would beg to disagree with you.

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  • doppelganger
    replied
    Just looking around other than the Israeli chick thread and thought I'd try my hand at some serious matter as well.

    I never understood this thing about North Korea and the world so thought I'd just risk sounding foolish and blurt it out here.

    What IS the world's problem with North Korea?

    I mean, with Pakistan I can understand. It is a rogue country fingering everyone, and is nuclear as well.

    But North Korea is not a terrorist country. Sure they are nuclear and maybe not legally either. But who are they fingering? I don't think they export terror anywhere. I don't think they are militarily a serious threat to any of the big countries being discussed here (China, USA, Japan, South Korea). As the experts here agree, if they were ever to get too frisky, South Korea could finish them off, leave alone China.

    So what is the real problem? That they are a communist country? I'm sure we have all moved on from the cold war era right?

    So why not just leave them alone and let them sink or swim on their own?
    Last edited by doppelganger; 16 Mar 13,, 07:25.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Really, really big molatovs.

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  • Blademaster
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    As long as it took the South to breach the DMZ ... which is somewhat easier than going south. The whole thing is that the North has always geared to invade the south. Except for the FEBA, their rear is geared to move troops forward into the attack, not to impede an enemy advance. As such, roads that help troops move south can also help troops move north.

    Once the South breached the DMZ, then it's another Pusan Breakout and those NORK gunners would be running for their lives.
    When the fuel runs out, the gunners' only option would be to surrender because they cannot run fast enough to escape bloodthirsty SKs after lighting up Seoul or retreat into redoubts or caves and fight it out to the last man. How loaded are the SKs in thermobaric and bunk buster weapons?

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    How long would it take SK to pick off the 17,000 plus artillery guns that NKs have?
    As long as it took the South to breach the DMZ ... which is somewhat easier than going south. The whole thing is that the North has always geared to invade the south. Except for the FEBA, their rear is geared to move troops forward into the attack, not to impede an enemy advance. As such, roads that help troops move south can also help troops move north.

    Once the South breached the DMZ, then it's another Pusan Breakout and those NORK gunners would be running for their lives.

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  • Blademaster
    replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Figure a minimum of 30 days in strategic reserves, but then almost nothing. North Korea has refinery capacity for 71,000 barrels of oil a day, imports 14,000 barrels a day (or did) and produces just under 130 barrels a day domestically. Plus they have a least some of their truck fleet converted to wood burning gassifiers. Gassified trucks not withstanding, if they lose access to imports they are screwed unless they have a secret synthetic fuels industry.
    That's it. There's absolutely no way that the NK can hold out against SKs for more than 2 weeks. It would be Dunkirk for NKs because in Dunkirk, the French were fighting until fuel ran out before German's fuel ran out.

    I don't care how many soldiers or equipment NKs have, without fuel, those artillery equipment are just sitting ducks for counterfire.

    How long would it take SK to pick off the 17,000 plus artillery guns that NKs have?

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    History would suggest otherwise. Populations always rebound after a big die off.

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  • Blademaster
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The main Chinese goal is to keep North Koreans out of China and the best way to do that is to keep Kim in power. He has the security apparatus to maintain enough order so that there is no mass exodus. However, if that apparatus is to collapse by Kim's own stupid bellicose and forced Seoul to destroy it, then, the only Chinese option is to invade and drive to the 38th, destroying everything that even stinks of Kim, and thus force the refugees south.
    I am taking a long view on this. What is the birth rate of NKs? Is the population of NK shrinking? Perhaps that is the strategy of China. To make the population of NK wither to a few millions through famine, starvation, and whatnot so the expense of taking care of the NK population would be vastly smaller.

    Are the statistics on Wiki page correct or flubbed and inflated?
    Last edited by Blademaster; 16 Mar 13,, 05:04.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    Sir, wouldn't the NK border and the entire area around those HARTS be one giant shit-storm of area-denial weapons and equipment?
    It would take forever and a day for the ROK's to reach them. In the meantime, Seoul is turned into that sea of fire that Kim and his gang are constantly promising.
    You mean Engineers?

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  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    As already stated, it would be the South Koreans marching north, not the North marching south.
    Sir, wouldn't the NK border and the entire area around those HARTS be one giant shit-storm of area-denial weapons and equipment?
    It would take forever and a day for the ROK's to reach them. In the meantime, Seoul is turned into that sea of fire that Kim and his gang are constantly promising.

    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Baby Kim is really putting that hope to the test. Sooner or later, someone is going slap him for his temper tantrums.
    I agree. After the Cheonan sinking and the Yeonpyeong bombardment, the ROK's are hit back big time if the North decides to start shooting again.
    Last edited by TopHatter; 16 Mar 13,, 01:40.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Hopefully we never find out.
    Baby Kim is really putting that hope to the test. Sooner or later, someone is going slap him for his temper tantrums.

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  • zraver
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The main Chinese goal is to keep North Koreans out of China and the best way to do that is to keep Kim in power. He has the security apparatus to maintain enough order so that there is no mass exodus. However, if that apparatus is to collapse by Kim's own stupid bellicose and forced Seoul to destroy it, then, the only Chinese option is to invade and drive to the 38th, destroying everything that even stinks of Kim, and thus force the refugees south.
    Hopefully we never find out.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Sir, we have different reads on it. I am approaching it from a more Bismarkian realpolitik perspective focused on what i think are longer termed PRC goals. I say that if war comes China want's the RoK to win, but only after bleeding so much that promises of Chinese aid can buy US troops exiting the Asian mainland.
    The main Chinese goal is to keep North Koreans out of China and the best way to do that is to keep Kim in power. He has the security apparatus to maintain enough order so that there is no mass exodus. However, if that apparatus is to collapse by Kim's own stupid bellicose and forced Seoul to destroy it, then, the only Chinese option is to invade and drive to the 38th, destroying everything that even stinks of Kim, and thus force the refugees south.

    Leave a comment:


  • zraver
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I seriously doubt that. Any movement forward to jump off points will start off by the Chinese cutting off everything and the South will beat the North to the punch.
    Sir, we have different reads on it. I am approaching it from a more Bismarkian realpolitik perspective focused on what i think are longer termed PRC goals. I say that if war comes China want's the RoK to win, but only after bleeding so much that promises of Chinese aid can buy US troops exiting the Asian mainland.

    Leave a comment:


  • Stitch
    replied
    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    Interesting discussion. So, it is not who will win, but when SK is financially ready to feed the NK.
    Along those lines, I think the example of the US invading Iraq back in 2003, but not having any "the day after the war stops" plans would be instructive; i.e.: don't invade another country unless you're planning on cleaning the mess up when you're done. I know "nation building" is NOT what the US Army is trained to do, but there should've been some sort of a "day after" plan to deal with what was left of Iraq after 2003.

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