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  • Tennetc
    replied
    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    Tennetc,Of course, it isn't nearly that easy. China doesn't want to be seen to publically ditch a long term ally at a time when it is expanding its global presence.
    you are right here.that was why I talked about the sino-NK treaty, but as the OOE has stated, if there is conflict of interest, china may not uphold the treaty.

    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    That is why I am interested in what China can reasonably do here. Taking actions that hurt the people of the DPRK might have an impact on the leadership, but how much hurt do you need to impose?The Kims have let millions die before. Besides, the ensuing mess might draw China into something it wants to avoid. I'm not really sure anybody involved has worked out a way to remove the DPRK leadership that doesn't involve a lot of dead bodies. If those bodies were only Nth Korean somebody might make a move, but there are going to be eihter dead CHinses, dead Sth Koreans or both to add to the pile. I can't help thinking everybody is going to just bumble along here, tinkering at the margins when possible, but without any clear idea of what to do.
    you are right,it does seem everybody is not willing or don't what to do about NK

    China has tried before to tell NK's leaders to copy china's opening up policy,if they had listened, there may have been a way out, but it seems they will not listened.Now it seems we are left with either change a leader who will listen or help SK unite with NK. Needless to say both of this is very hard to do and china may not be willing to use so much resource to do it.

    In a ideal world, the best way will be for the US,SK,China and to some extend russia and japan to truely work together(not like now, where all nations will only look out for its own inetrest and don't trust each other much) to force unification using both outside influenced coup and military actions.The major conflict of interest here is:

    1) Who pays the NK-SK reunification fee
    2) Who will initially be resposible for taking care of and bringing the N koreans to the 21st century
    3) For China, how much influence left after reunification
    4) For USA, how much influence left after reunification

    Also for china public willingness may not be too big a problem, but if USA has to send troops public willingness maybe a problem, for SK, public willingness is bigger problem.

    Also,for the refugee problem,I believe if enough money and preparation time is given, it may be able to be controlled.The key is to keep the refugees in NK land, that means food must be able to get inside NK as soon as possible, and by this I don't mean setting up refugee camps inside NK, I mean the food has to get to people's home.To do this the NK leadership and loyal force must be decisively and quickly killed and major fighting done as fast as posible.I believe the combined strengh of US,SK,China can pull this off is true co-operation is there.

    The SK military has trained with US military so co-operation is no problem there, as for china, since chinese and US military ways are diferent ,co-operation may be harder,but they can use the method of each force take care of different sectors and responsibilty, that means not even US air support in chinese area of responsibilty, if US is responsible for initial bombing, no chinese airplane allowed in area etc.This way military co-operation is possible

    Of course because Nations will always look out for their interest in the real world, this will not happen unless NK does something so bad that US,SK and China's interests will together be hurt(eg NK makes a real working nuke, NK attack SK etc),and even then co-operation will still be shaky conflict of interest filled, thus results will not be as desired.

    So,yes, as of now, I too think there is nothing china or anyone else can do.

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  • Bigfella
    replied
    Tennetc,

    The problem for the DPRK is that China's leadership appears to be coming to the conclusion that having an expanded RoK as a neighbour is a better idea than having the DPRK as a dependent. There really is little upside to having to pay for the ongoing expstence of the DPRK & a lot of upside to having a stable, peaceful & prosperous RoK as a neighbour. China would go from sinking money into a bottomless pit to support a dangerous & well armed religious cult masquerading as a nation to having dramatically expanded trade links with a successful economy.

    Of course, it isn't nearly that easy. China doesn't want to be seen to publically ditch a long term ally at a time when it is expanding its global presence. There is also no clear 'endgame' that is not an unholy mess for everbody. As the COlonel points out, China could shut down the DPRK more or less completely by easter....but that would be a disaster.

    That is why I am interested in what China can reasonably do here. Taking actions that hurt the people of the DPRK might have an impact on the leadership, but how much hurt do you need to impose? The Kims have let millions die before. Besides, the ensuing mess might draw China into something it wants to avoid. I'm not really sure anybody involved has worked out a way to remove the DPRK leadership that doesn't involve a lot of dead bodies. If those bodies were only Nth Korean somebody might make a move, but there are going to be eihter dead CHinses, dead Sth Koreans or both to add to the pile. I can't help thinking everybody is going to just bumble along here, tinkering at the margins when possible, but without any clear idea of what to do.

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  • Tennetc
    replied
    Also, better relations with SK may be desired by china to help act as counter force against Japan.

    btw may I ask, with SK and Japan both being US allies and SK still having territorial issue with china, any chance of SK siding with china in a sino-japan dispute if china aids SK with NK?

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  • Tennetc
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The Sino-Soviet Treaty didn't stop the border clashes resulting in the border war of 1970s.
    That is a good point.

    After some thougth, I realized one thing, china has now move on from concentrating on ideology and is now concentrating on development(making money).There maybe is a chance china will move unilaterally against NK if it helps with china's development:

    Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea'

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Tennetc View Post
    I don't know about the chinese govs true position, but in chinese news, NK is never portrayed as rogue.
    No, they're just portrayed as a bunch of illiterate peasants.

    Originally posted by Tennetc View Post
    Also to this day China still has not canceled the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty.I remember in 1979, the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance ended before china attacked vietnam(a soviet ally).
    The Sino-Soviet Treaty didn't stop the border clashes resulting in the border war of 1970s.

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  • Tennetc
    replied
    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    Thats what I'm wondering - how far will China take it & what is it likely to do that will actually force the DRPK leadership to change course.
    I don't know about the chinese govs true position, but in chinese news, NK is never portrayed as rogue. Also to this day China still has not canceled the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty.I remember in 1979, the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance ended before china attacked vietnam(a soviet ally).So in my opinion,the unless we see this treaty canceled,I don't think China will do anything unilaterally against NK. China will response only agianst NK actions, the more bad NK actions have agianst China, the more severe the response, including war.We see this to be true now:

    NK test nuke---china suspend some aid and move some military units to NK borders

    NK test nuke 2nd time---china condeme NK in public

    Nk test nuke 3rd time---china allow more UN sanction

    If you think I am wrong, pls feel free to correct me

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  • Bigfella
    replied
    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    But otherwise it'll be business as usual?
    Thats what I'm wondering - how far will China take it & what is it likely to do that will actually force the DRPK leadership to change course.

    Leave a comment:


  • USSWisconsin
    replied
    Yes, its from last year - but under the same Kim, it seems to add to the answer to "what's so special about NK?"

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/vide...a-flames-video

    Threats about "Seoul in flames " from their "cruel" towed artillery...
    Last edited by USSWisconsin; 22 Mar 13,, 00:26.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by DPrime View Post
    1. Would not China's main, long-term priority be maintaining a "buffer state" between its territory and South Korea (i.e. US military)? I would think this is more important to them than North Koreans coming across their borders, but maybe I'm missing something here...
    China, in the 80s and mid 90s, was actually envisioning a united Korea under Seoul and had began meetings with Seoul on seeking understanding of US forces in Korea. Kim Jung Il never forgave China for what he believed to be betrayal.

    Originally posted by DPrime View Post
    2. Would not most refugees aim for South Korea instead? Other than the "party faithful", of course.
    If we're talking a self inflicted implosion, refugees would go where it is easiest to get food. Half would goto China, the other half south. If we're talking about war, it's always in the opposite direction of the fighting.

    Originally posted by DPrime View Post
    In a related vein, is there any possibility whatsoever that China would retaliate against US/Western action in North Korea? In a nutshell, is North Korea (whether they want to keep North Koreans out or maintain a buffer state, or whatever other reason they may have) worth going to war with the US, an important economic... well, if not "partner", then entity, I suppose you could call it. And that's only going to increase as time goes on.
    China is not going to war for North Korea.

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  • Doktor
    replied
    Unless you kill two of your superiors and just cross the border.

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  • 1979
    replied
    Originally posted by DPrime View Post
    2. Would not most refugees aim for South Korea instead? Other than the "party faithful", of course.
    They do aim for south korea, however the DMZ is actually very militarized , you can step on a mine or get shot , whereas in the north you can bribe the border guards .

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  • Red Team
    replied
    DPrime,

    1. IMV the buffer state relationship between North Korea and China has been gradually declining because of greatly improved political and economic relations between Seoul and Beijing. Unlike the relationship with North Korea, China would potentially have more to gain from a long term economic standpoint (e.g., increased trade in high-end goods) if the Koreas were to be reunified under the ROK. However, this also presents the potential for a major US military presence right at China's doorstep. It all really depends if they willing to take the gamble that the latter will not happen. In which case, if the Chinese are more worried about maintaining a buffer, then North Korea may very well be the latest prospect for the newest province of the People's Republic.

    2. Refugees would likely migrate to whatever border happens to be closer or more importantly, open.

    Lastly, any military action between China and the US would significantly jeopardize the current global trade environment and would only serve to unnecessarily drain the resources of both sides. Never mind the potential for a nuclear weapons exchange if things got desperate.

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  • DPrime
    replied
    I keep hearing about Chinese fears of North Korean refugees. I must admit it's an angle I was completely unfamiliar with, but on that note, I have a couple of questions...

    1. Would not China's main, long-term priority be maintaining a "buffer state" between its territory and South Korea (i.e. US military)? I would think this is more important to them than North Koreans coming across their borders, but maybe I'm missing something here...

    2. Would not most refugees aim for South Korea instead? Other than the "party faithful", of course.

    In a related vein, is there any possibility whatsoever that China would retaliate against US/Western action in North Korea? In a nutshell, is North Korea (whether they want to keep North Koreans out or maintain a buffer state, or whatever other reason they may have) worth going to war with the US, an important economic... well, if not "partner", then entity, I suppose you could call it. And that's only going to increase as time goes on.

    For the matter (and I know I'm getting well off course now), is anything (e.g. Taiwan) worth a war between China and the US, from either country's perspective? Our economic interests are getting more and more intertwined... Seems like both sides have much more to lose than anything they could possibly gain. (Though I suppose one could make that argument for any war, to some degree.)

    Of course I'm speaking about realistic possibilities, here. If China were to pull a Pearl Harbour on us, that would be worth retaliating, of course, but that would be very unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future. :)
    Last edited by DPrime; 21 Mar 13,, 18:09.

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  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I'm seeing the Chinese are at the end of the rope with baby Kim. They don't respect him and are about to give him a lesson on who's boss. Translation: they ain't going to ship him his Mercedes that he ordered.
    But otherwise it'll be business as usual?

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    Which leads to the interesting question - what does that mean in concrete terms? Chna can turn the screws at whatever speed it chooses, but just what is it prepared to do & just what result might it bring? Will be curious to watch.
    I'm seeing the Chinese are at the end of the rope with baby Kim. They don't respect him and are about to give him a lesson on who's boss. Translation: they ain't going to ship him his Mercedes that he ordered.

    They've already stopped his arms trade. North Korea have been shipping advice and blueprints. Actual rockets are off the market.

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