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War on the Korean Peninsula: Present-day

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Yes.

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  • YellowFever
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Three Generals his father put in place to help guide him has disappeared from the face of the earth.
    Colonel, are these the generals you're talking about?



    2012-12-16 17:15

    Disappearance of generals


    By Andrei Lankov

    The picture is still probably fresh in our readers’ memory: Pyongyang, December 2011. A large black hearse with the coffin of the recently departed Marshall Kim Jong-il slowly moves through the streets of the North Korean capital. Eight people are walking alongside side it ― four uniformed military commanders on the left and four top civilian bureaucrats on the right, with Kim Jong-un (yet to be seen wearing a military uniform) at the head of the civilian line.

    Well what has happened to these eight people over the last year? Their fate is quite remarkable: all the military officers have lost their positions, while all the civilians remain in place. This is important, not least because one of the few changes which could be observed in North Korea over the last year was a slow, but significant shift of power away from the military and back to the party-state.

    Let’s have a close look at the generals who held the highest military positions in the land as of late last year. Only one of them is known to be alive, his standing has diminished dramatically. His name is Kim Yong-chun, at the time of the funeral he was the first deputy defence minister ― second-in-command of the North Korean military. As one would expect, he was placed second in the line of four generals next to the hearse.

    Kim Yong Chun lost his job in April ― allegedly because of bad health. He has not disappeared from public view, though he is now responsible for civil defence nationwide. This is not a complete disgrace for the man, but is clearly nonetheless a significant demotion.

    The other three have fared much worse. At the funeral, the most prominent role was reserved for Ri Yong-ho, then chief of North Korea’s general staff. On July 17, the North Korean public learnt that a special Politburo session relieved Ri of his troublesome duties. Nothing has been heard about him since then _ but if persistent rumours are to be believed his name is spoken of most unfavourably behind the scenes and in indoctrination sessions. It is not impossible that the old general is now under arrest, and it is all but certain that he has completely fallen from grace.

    The third among the four generals was Kim Chong-kak, who at the time of the funeral was the first deputy head of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) General Political Office. His job was in essence to be the top liaison between the party and military. He was briefly promoted in April, but in November he also lost his position and has not been seen since.

    The last man is U Tong-chik, the first deputy minister of state security ― i.e. the real head of North Korea’s secret police, intelligence and counterespionage service (quite a scary job, I would say). U was also fired in April and since then nothing has been heard about him.

    We have witnessed the sudden dismissal of all four people who were just one year ago publically presented as the top military leaders of the country. This is a big deal, but purges of the military itself have gone much further than just the apex of its hierarchy. Many North Korean generals of lesser standing, including corps commanders, have also been dismissed. It also seems that a few weeks ago, North Korea acquired a new minister of defence, Gen. Kim Kyok-sik, whose appointment has not been made public so far.

    So in spite of all the lip-service paid to the ''military-first” policy, the military has been marginalised and the centre stage has come to be dominated by lifelong party functionaries and technocrats. Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Jang Seong-thaek, seems to be the most influential member of this emerging group. Predictably, he also participated in the funeral, he walked just behind Kim Jong-un himself.

    People often present these purges as the struggle between moderate civilians and hard-line generals. There is little doubt that across the globe, the military tends to gravitate towards hard-line policies. Generals often believe that in this world there are few problems which cannot be solved by an artillery barrage or, better still, a precision missile strike. Nonetheless, we cannot know whether this is the case in North Korea. We know precious little about the actual political views, inclinations, and values of North Korea’s top officials ― military and civilian alike.

    So it is therefore possible that what we see is merely a power struggle between two interest groups who differ little in their actual approach to political questions. Sometimes a power struggle is just a struggle for power. At any rate, the removal of top military commanders has yet to have any visible impact on North Korean government policy.

    Professor Andrei Lankov was born in St. Petersburg, Russia, and now teaches at Kookmin University in Seoul. You can reach him at anlankov@yahoo.com.

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  • citanon
    replied
    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    Sounds like Kim Jong Un is trying to keep the other generals who made those generals disappear from doing the same thing to him. The ironic thing is that he is helping those people to put him away because the more bellicose he talks the more pressure China will put on those people and once he makes a mistake, he is gone. The best way to overthrow a dictator or tyrant is to first target his lieutenants or able advisers. Once the dictator or tyrant is left without competent advisers, he has nobody to save him from his mistakes.
    I'm not sure if it's the other generals that made the three disappear, or Kim himself. Either way something something has gone awry. Maybe the recent troubles could help keep the army occupied with defending against the US instead of removing Kim the fatter.

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  • Blademaster
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Three Generals his father put in place to help guide him has disappeared from the face of the earth.
    Sounds like Kim Jong Un is trying to keep the other generals who made those generals disappear from doing the same thing to him. The ironic thing is that he is helping those people to put him away because the more bellicose he talks the more pressure China will put on those people and once he makes a mistake, he is gone. The best way to overthrow a dictator or tyrant is to first target his lieutenants or able advisers. Once the dictator or tyrant is left without competent advisors, he has nobody to save him from his mistakes.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    Is there any chance his generals to overthrow him?
    Three Generals his father put in place to help guide him has disappeared from the face of the earth.

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  • Doktor
    replied
    Is there any chance his generals to overthrow him?

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
    Well, you're always going to have crazy idiots, like people who think Taiwan should unify with Japan, the UK should conquer Ireland as a first step in restoring the British Empire, Texas should secede, and that sort of garden variety nuthouse-ness. The question is, do the crazies have any influence?
    Yeah, Kim Jong Un

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  • Skywatcher
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    How funny it is that people are still under the illusion that North Korea has a chance in hell of conquering the south ... but then, there are still South Korean university students who wants the North to conquer the South.
    Well, you're always going to have crazy idiots, like people who think Taiwan should unify with Japan, the UK should conquer Ireland as a first step in restoring the British Empire, Texas should secede, and that sort of garden variety nuthouse-ness. The question is, do the crazies have any influence?

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  • chanjyj
    replied
    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    Clearly one of the missions of ROK artillery & other ROK/US assets will be to keep the guns & missiles in their holes until the ground forces arrive. If you can't stick your head out of your hardened shelter to shoot that achieves the same immediate goal as killing you. Obviously it isn't going to be possible to get every tube & missile, but a lot can be suppressed without immediately taking them out
    In this scenario they would have to strike first. Assuming that is not the case, I don't see how Seoul can be protected adequately.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    How funny it is that people are still under the illusion that North Korea has a chance in hell of conquering the south ... but then, there are still South Korean university students who wants the North to conquer the South.

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  • Bigfella
    replied
    Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Dago, a lot of those can and would be hit by TLAMs from USN and JNSDF ships as well as SLAMs, etc. Oh and the 155mm Excalibur GPS round will also defeat a lot of bunkers.

    But so will the ROK engineers as they attack northward.
    Clearly one of the missions of ROK artillery & other ROK/US assets will be to keep the guns & missiles in their holes until the ground forces arrive. If you can't stick your head out of your hardened shelter to shoot that achieves the same immediate goal as killing you. Obviously it isn't going to be possible to get every tube & missile, but a lot can be suppressed without immediately taking them out

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  • Albany Rifles
    replied
    Dago, a lot of those can and would be hit by TLAMs from USN and JNSDF ships as well as SLAMs, etc. Oh and the 155mm Excalibur GPS round will also defeat a lot of bunkers.

    But so will the ROK engineers as they attack northward.

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  • Dago
    replied
    Originally posted by Stitch View Post
    Oops! Wrong ordnance . . . I should've said CBU-105 WCMD's.
    What about those MLRS batteries South Korea possesses? Those M26 rockets landing nearby with 644 M77's munitions? 12 Rockets on one M270, that is about 7,728 cluster munitions. Steel rain? Than you also have SADARM rounds, that are smart munitions that search for armor. The submunitions can be used in rockets as well. South Korea has 58 of these M270. They also have the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System. Yet most of these are quite ineffective for hardened sites. You need larger payload like larger smart bombs. And we'll, that is alot of targeting of hard sites. More targets than Iraq.
    Last edited by Dago; 30 Mar 13,, 08:26.

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  • Stitch
    replied
    Originally posted by Stitch View Post
    Yeah, just salvo your AIM-120D's and see what happens . . .
    Oops! Wrong ordnance . . . I should've said CBU-105 WCMD's.

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  • Bigfella
    replied
    Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    And probably the biggest erection he has ever had in his life!


    Meanwhile there an MLRS battery commander smiles and takes a swig of coffee from his mug just before he gives the command to fire.
    Sounds like Chogy wants to spoil your fun & hit them before they can line up all nice - typical pilot!

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