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  • Doktor
    replied
    Originally posted by doppelganger View Post
    The Koreans do not have Islam to deal with. There is frankly no comparison. Political ideologies are small fry in comparison.
    If it was that easy, then you'd had one country from Morocco to Pakistan and then to Indonesia.

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  • doppelganger
    replied
    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    Imagine India trying to re-integrate Pakistan & Bangladesh combined 3 times over. it will be MUCH harder than that.
    The Koreans do not have Islam to deal with. There is frankly no comparison. Political ideologies are small fry in comparison.

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  • Bigfella
    replied
    Originally posted by lemontree View Post
    I dont believe that a united Korea will be an economic doom. People had the same doomed vision about the economics of Germany during unification. But they fared quiet well. The Koreans too will fare well, simple economics of manufacture and trade will iron out the economic disbalance. The investments that the S.Koreans make in international markets will go to N.Korea, so instead of Korean cars and electronic coming from factories in Tamil Nadu, you will have these coming from N.Korea.
    Unfortunately I think Doc is correct on this one. East Germany was considered the 'most advanced' Warsaw Pact country. While its people had been ruled by Communism for 45 years they were well educated, prosperous by communist standards & reasonably informed about West Germany. Infrastructure was at least functional. Even then it still took vast resources to integrate what was a substantially smaller nation.

    North Korea is an entirely different proposition. The population has been starved, cowered & brainwashed for over 60 years. They are under-educated, under fed (there is apparently a height difference between northerners & southerners) and lacking in a lot of the skills needed to be integrated into a modern economy. Infrastructure is in an abominable condition and is simply incapable of supporting a modern nation. Upgrading that alone will cost unimaginavble sums. Industry is one or two generations behind the south and is essentially worthless. Poor agricultural practices has apparently caused an environmental catastrope to the point where the place can't even feed itself at even current low levels. Simply feeding the population & making sure it has sufficient energy will cost a fortune. Germany didn't have to face anything remotely like that.

    When re-unification does happen the Sth will have a supply of cheap labour, but one that ius potentially hostile to the point of being ungovernable. it would only take a relatively small number of fanatics to make the place ungovernable, and the Kims have had generations to produce just that. The south is going to face an awkward problem - at what point after the DPRK collapses will it be safe to properly 'integrate' the North. How many years before it is safe to dismantle the border & allow a completely free flow of people? How soon until it is possible to integrate politically? Imagine India trying to re-integrate Pakistan & Bangladesh combined 3 times over. it will be MUCH harder than that.

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  • Doktor
    replied
    Originally posted by lemontree View Post
    I dont believe that a united Korea will be an economic doom. People had the same doomed vision about the economics of Germany during unification. But they fared quiet well. The Koreans too will fare well, simple economics of manufacture and trade will iron out the economic disbalance. The investments that the S.Koreans make in international markets will go to N.Korea, so instead of Korean cars and electronic coming from factories in Tamil Nadu, you will have these coming from N.Korea.
    Captain,

    Comparing Germany with Korea sounds kind of wrong to me.

    Unification happened in a period followed by good economy on the continent and in general. Unified Germany had EU funds.

    Both Germanies had similar type of production - cars, precision mech, chemicals... meaning west got trained labor in the east. On top of it East Germans were not hungry.

    And I am almost 100% sure most of the car plants are still in the West Germany.

    I am kind of sure it wont be a doom, but it will take a lot of time, sweat and money to make it work.

    Leave a comment:


  • lemontree
    replied
    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
    I think it is with the greatest desire of Japan that Seoul takes over North Korea. Then Seoul would be too busy contending with NKs for several decades and by that time, WWII would be memories.
    I dont believe that a united Korea will be an economic doom. People had the same doomed vision about the economics of Germany during unification. But they fared quiet well. The Koreans too will fare well, simple economics of manufacture and trade will iron out the economic disbalance. The investments that the S.Koreans make in international markets will go to N.Korea, so instead of Korean cars and electronic coming from factories in Tamil Nadu, you will have these coming from N.Korea.

    Leave a comment:


  • Skywatcher
    replied
    Originally posted by Mihais View Post
    Fortunately,the mandatory reference to Sun Tzu was at the end,so it did not prevented me reading the article.

    I was wondering about Porky.He studied in Switzerland.How comes he's still an unknown quantity?
    For Pete's sake,it's likely the entire NORK section of every foreign intel agency was tapping everything he did.And I doubt his security team could have prevented much of the combined collection effort.
    He hasn't been aboard in a while, and kids from 18-24 years of age are still quite malleable, so going back home to the Kim Dynasty Cult would probably wreck havoc with his psychology, I imagine.

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  • Mihais
    replied
    Fortunately,the mandatory reference to Sun Tzu was at the end,so it did not prevented me reading the article.

    I was wondering about Porky.He studied in Switzerland.How comes he's still an unknown quantity?
    For Pete's sake,it's likely the entire NORK section of every foreign intel agency was tapping everything he did.And I doubt his security team could have prevented much of the combined collection effort.

    Leave a comment:


  • xinhui
    replied
    Another well-connected Chinese military expert, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of discussing Chinese defense policy, said China believed the U.S. presence in Korea acted as a necessary restraint on troublesome Pyongyang, hence the lack of criticism from Beijing.



    China's anger at North Korea overcomes worry over U.S. stealth flights
    China's anger at North Korea overcomes worry over U.S. stealth flights | Reuters



    By Ben Blanchard

    BEIJING | Mon Apr 1, 2013 5:09pm EDT

    (Reuters) - A show of force by U.S. stealth jets over the Korean Peninsula after talk of war by Pyongyang has caused only minor concern in China, a measure of Beijing's belief that the North is to blame for the tensions and that hostilities are not imminent.

    The presence of U.S. forces in places like South Korea and Japan has long worried Beijing, feeding its fears that it is being surrounded and "contained" by Washington and its allies, especially following the U.S. strategic pivot to Asia.

    The flying of B-2 and F-22 stealth jets in joint exercises with South Korea, bringing U.S. military might virtually to China's doorstep, has barely generated a response from Beijing except for a generic call for calm and restraint.


    Last month's announcement that the United States would strengthen its anti-missile defenses due to the North's threats also elicited only relatively mild criticism from China.

    "All these new actions from the U.S. side are not targeted at China," said Ni Lexiong, a military expert at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.

    "There is no possible threat to China."

    Another well-connected Chinese military expert, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of discussing Chinese defense policy, said China believed the U.S. presence in Korea acted as a necessary restraint on troublesome Pyongyang, hence the lack of criticism from Beijing.

    Chinese internet sites are resounding with criticism not of the United States but of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who is derided as "Fatty Kim" or "Fatty The Third", in reference to his father and grandfather, both previous rulers of the pariah state.

    Blame is mostly being put on Kim for leading his country to disaster and the region close to war.

    "Fatty Kim, while you are playing games, your people are starving to death," wrote one user on the popular Twitter-like microblogging site Sina Weibo, blaming Kim for the chronic food insecurity that years of sanctions and economic mismanagement have bought to North Korea.

    But speaking too strongly against North Korea in China can have consequences. South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper said on Monday that an editor at China's Study Times had been suspended for arguing in the Financial Times that China abandon North Korea.

    FRENEMY

    Russia, China's giant neighbor to the north and west, also appears to be setting aside its rivalry with the United States When it comes to issues with North Korea.

    Moscow has warned that heightened military activity on the Korean Peninsula was slipping into a vicious cycle, but senior Russian Foreign Ministry official Grigory Logvinov told the RIA news agency on Saturday: "At least at this point, we see that the statements (of Washington) are rather restrained. The position of the American side is a bit reassuring".

    China has long been accustomed to living with its unpredictable "frenemy" neighbor, a country valued as a bulwark against the United States and feared as a source of dangerous instability.

    An online survey begun over the weekend by influential Chinese tabloid the Global Times found that more than 80 percent of respondents did not believe the current situation on the Korean Peninsula was serious.

    "It's not the first time North Korea has used such strong language. They often say this. I think they are probably playing a game. It's to do with what sort of person Kim Jong-un is, and his young age," said Jia Qingguo, an international relations professor at the elite Peking University.

    "I really don't think they will resort to using their weapons. The possibility is very small."

    Retired Major General Luo Yuan, one of China's most outspoken military figures, expressed a degree of sympathy with North Korea in a blog last week, writing that the country was only trying to push the international community to properly guarantee its security and wanted normal ties with Washington.

    War was unlikely, Luo added.

    "Once the joint U.S.-South Korean exercises have finished and with birthday celebrations for (late founder of North Korea) Kim Il-sung imminent, the temperature will gradually cool and get back to the status quo of no war, no unification," he wrote.

    Nevertheless, there has been some criticism in China directed at the United States.

    One Chinese military expert, Li Jie, who works for a Chinese navy research institution, told the website of Communist Party mouthpiece the People's Daily that the B-2 sortie was actually aimed more at China that North Korea.

    "The ultimate strategic aim is to contain and blockade China, to distract China's attention and slow its development. What the U.S. is most worried about is the further development of China's economy and military strength," Li said.

    The opinion does not seem widely shared, though deciphering the perceptions of China's military top brass is usually difficult.

    The People's Liberation Army has, instead of issuing any statements about the Korean peninsula, has in recent days focused its attention on new orders to restrict the use of military license plates on cars, part of a graft crackdown.

    "The Chinese people know how to shadow box and know even better about Sun Zi's Art of War, so it (the military) won't make public that which need not be known," the official China New Service said in a commentary about the Korean tensions.

    (Additional reporting by Sally Huang; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Great way to get your oil cut off and your bribes to your secret police out of their hands.

    Leave a comment:


  • Parihaka
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Crude oil is not on the UN sanctions list and all of Feb would tell us that this was enacted before the UN sanctions and before the nuclear test.

    The Chinese made a big hoopla detailing the official sanctions and implementing them. They did not do so on this occasion. REUTERS did a little spy work on their own. Now, it may have been a "tip" from someone to check into it and the data has been falsified.

    But one thing we do know. No one is gassing up North Korean trucks and tanks.
    So it's just as likely these current temper tantrums are designed to influence the Chinese as the Americans?

    Leave a comment:


  • Blademaster
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Captain,

    2) Whoever wins in North Korea (and it ain't going to be North Korea) gets to pay for 25 million illiterate peasant beggars. The Chinese would laughing all the way to the bank watching Seoul go bankrupt. Put it this way, how would you like Pakistan to surrender to India provided India takes over her social services?

    I think it is with the greatest desire of Japan that Seoul takes over North Korea. Then Seoul would be too busy contending with NKs for several decades and by that time, WWII would be memories.

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    I'm going to refer that one to the Colonel. He knows a damned site more about thses things than either of us & he seems convinced.
    Crude oil is not on the UN sanctions list and all of Feb would tell us that this was enacted before the UN sanctions and before the nuclear test.

    The Chinese made a big hoopla detailing the official sanctions and implementing them. They did not do so on this occasion. REUTERS did a little spy work on their own. Now, it may have been a "tip" from someone to check into it and the data has been falsified.

    But one thing we do know. No one is gassing up North Korean trucks and tanks.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bigfella
    replied
    Originally posted by lemontree View Post
    To Bigfella


    ...And how do we know that their oil supply has been cut off!!...the news release was from the official Chinese information system. They (the Chinese) want the world to know that they are doing their bit...., but the question is, are they? Do we have any reliable news/media sources in N Korea that can authenticate this independently - NO.
    I'm going to refer that one to the Colonel. He knows a damned site more about thses things than either of us & he seems convinced.

    China has only two options w.r.t NK - blind support or abandon them.

    Granted, that NK leadership are psycho maniacs, but NK economy is in shambles and 85% of Chinese imports sustain the NK economy. The Chinese will have a bigger headache if they abandon NK.

    The Chinese armed forces have already increased their activity on the border with NK so any SK-US activity will involve the Chinese too. What happens when hostilities break out? China will not abandon its buffer zone of NK.
    From what I have read China appears to be coming to the conclusion that its 'border zone' is a great deal more trouble than it is worth. Far from keeping US forces away from China it is actually giving the US all the excuses it needs to beef up anti-missile defences & military forces in North Asia.

    Nth Korea is a very expensive pet that is in the habit of soiling the carpet and generally making a nuisance of itself. There is also the issue of defectors & potential refugees. All in all a pain in the arse and for not very much gain. I seriously doubt China is preparing to shed even a drop of blood to save the Kims. A friendly dictatorship with a sane, manageable leadership is probably the prefernce, but that isn't on offer right now.

    The ROK is peaceful, prosperous & in real terms probably has better relations with China than the DPRK. The ROK as a neighbour offers the prospect of making money rather than sinking it into a bottomless pit. As the colonel pointed out, the task of reconstruction will consume the ROK for decades, blunting any potential threat from the ROK. Ultimately China might prefer to foot the ROK with the cleanup bill than have to pay itself.

    Ultimately none of us knows what Beijing is thinking, but I'm betting that those Chinese armies don't have the slightest interest in engaging the ROK or US. If they are there for that reason China won't be subtle about telling the US.

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  • Doktor
    replied
    I recall Russians had drills on Georgian border few weeks before 5 days war.

    Added: Interesting how everyone around NK have drills ;)

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by DonBelt View Post
    I read this today: China mobilizing troops, jets near Korea | Washington Free Beacon
    Until I read this it sounded like most pundits (for what its worth) were in agreement that DPRK had worn out it's welcome with China. So how to read this? Is it just prudent precautions on China's part to move up additional military units to the NorK border? Might they be considering moving in to depose Lil'Kim before the RoK and US forces do? Or is it possible they intend to defend the DPRK or prevent American and ROK forces from approaching the frontier?
    Andy posted pics of that brigade with dates in question. It was an exercise. Nothing more. Nothing less.

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