War on the Korean Peninsula: Present-day

[Tennetc]

The Sino-Soviet Treaty didn't stop the border clashes resulting in the border war of 1970s.

That is a good point.

After some thougth, I realized one thing, china has now move on from concentrating on ideology and is now concentrating on development(making money).There maybe is a chance china will move unilaterally against NK if it helps with china's development:

Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea'

[Tennetc]

Also, better relations with SK may be desired by china to help act as counter force against Japan.

btw may I ask, with SK and Japan both being US allies and SK still having territorial issue with china, any chance of SK siding with china in a sino-japan dispute if china aids SK with NK?

[Bigfella]

Tennetc,

The problem for the DPRK is that China's leadership appears to be coming to the conclusion that having an expanded RoK as a neighbour is a better idea than having the DPRK as a dependent. There really is little upside to having to pay for the ongoing expstence of the DPRK & a lot of upside to having a stable, peaceful & prosperous RoK as a neighbour. China would go from sinking money into a bottomless pit to support a dangerous & well armed religious cult masquerading as a nation to having dramatically expanded trade links with a successful economy.

Of course, it isn't nearly that easy. China doesn't want to be seen to publically ditch a long term ally at a time when it is expanding its global presence. There is also no clear 'endgame' that is not an unholy mess for everbody. As the COlonel points out, China could shut down the DPRK more or less completely by easter....but that would be a disaster.

That is why I am interested in what China can reasonably do here. Taking actions that hurt the people of the DPRK might have an impact on the leadership, but how much hurt do you need to impose? The Kims have let millions die before. Besides, the ensuing mess might draw China into something it wants to avoid. I'm not really sure anybody involved has worked out a way to remove the DPRK leadership that doesn't involve a lot of dead bodies. If those bodies were only Nth Korean somebody might make a move, but there are going to be eihter dead CHinses, dead Sth Koreans or both to add to the pile. I can't help thinking everybody is going to just bumble along here, tinkering at the margins when possible, but without any clear idea of what to do.

[Tennetc]

Tennetc,Of course, it isn't nearly that easy. China doesn't want to be seen to publically ditch a long term ally at a time when it is expanding its global presence.

you are right here.that was why I talked about the sino-NK treaty, but as the OOE has stated, if there is conflict of interest, china may not uphold the treaty.

That is why I am interested in what China can reasonably do here. Taking actions that hurt the people of the DPRK might have an impact on the leadership, but how much hurt do you need to impose?The Kims have let millions die before. Besides, the ensuing mess might draw China into something it wants to avoid. I'm not really sure anybody involved has worked out a way to remove the DPRK leadership that doesn't involve a lot of dead bodies. If those bodies were only Nth Korean somebody might make a move, but there are going to be eihter dead CHinses, dead Sth Koreans or both to add to the pile. I can't help thinking everybody is going to just bumble along here, tinkering at the margins when possible, but without any clear idea of what to do.

you are right,it does seem everybody is not willing or don't what to do about NK

China has tried before to tell NK's leaders to copy china's opening up policy,if they had listened, there may have been a way out, but it seems they will not listened.Now it seems we are left with either change a leader who will listen or help SK unite with NK. Needless to say both of this is very hard to do and china may not be willing to use so much resource to do it.

In a ideal world, the best way will be for the US,SK,China and to some extend russia and japan to truely work together(not like now, where all nations will only look out for its own inetrest and don't trust each other much) to force unification using both outside influenced coup and military actions.The major conflict of interest here is:

1) Who pays the NK-SK reunification fee
2) Who will initially be resposible for taking care of and bringing the N koreans to the 21st century
3) For China, how much influence left after reunification
4) For USA, how much influence left after reunification

Also for china public willingness may not be too big a problem, but if USA has to send troops public willingness maybe a problem, for SK, public willingness is bigger problem.

Also,for the refugee problem,I believe if enough money and preparation time is given, it may be able to be controlled.The key is to keep the refugees in NK land, that means food must be able to get inside NK as soon as possible, and by this I don't mean setting up refugee camps inside NK, I mean the food has to get to people's home.To do this the NK leadership and loyal force must be decisively and quickly killed and major fighting done as fast as posible.I believe the combined strengh of US,SK,China can pull this off is true co-operation is there.

The SK military has trained with US military so co-operation is no problem there, as for china, since chinese and US military ways are diferent ,co-operation may be harder,but they can use the method of each force take care of different sectors and responsibilty, that means not even US air support in chinese area of responsibilty, if US is responsible for initial bombing, no chinese airplane allowed in area etc.This way military co-operation is possible

Of course because Nations will always look out for their interest in the real world, this will not happen unless NK does something so bad that US,SK and China's interests will together be hurt(eg NK makes a real working nuke, NK attack SK etc),and even then co-operation will still be shaky conflict of interest filled, thus results will not be as desired.

So,yes, as of now, I too think there is nothing china or anyone else can do.

[Bigfella]

you are right here.that was why I talked about the sino-NK treaty, but as the OOE has stated, if there is conflict of interest, china may not uphold the treaty.

China would at least need the appearance of a very good reason just to drop such an ally. Of course, that could be one big event or an accrual of smaller events over time. Certainly could be done - the DPRK is certainly dumb enough to give China an excuse....or at least dumb enough to let China manipulate it into giving one if it chooses to.

you are right,it does seem everybody is not willing or don't what to do about NK

The DPRK has made itself a problem wihtout an easy solution - to some extent this might be seen as a 'success' on the part of the Kims. Keeping power is what really matters to them.

China has tried before to tell NK's leaders to copy china's opening up policy,if they had listened, there may have been a way out, but it seems they will not listened.Now it seems we are left with either change a leader who will listen or help SK unite with NK. Needless to say both of this is very hard to do and china may not be willing to use so much resource to do it.

Nobody wants to pay that bill.

In a ideal world, the best way will be for the US,SK,China and to some extend russia and japan to truely work together(not like now, where all nations will only look out for its own inetrest and don't trust each other much) to force unification using both outside influenced coup and military actions.

In a world that ideal the DPRK would have already reformed itself. ;)

1) Who pays the NK-SK reunification fee
2) Who will initially be resposible for taking care of and bringing the N koreans to the 21st century

If there is reunification the RoK will probably get help from others. If China takes over I'm not so sure.

3) For China, how much influence left after reunification
4) For USA, how much influence left after reunification

It looks like China cares less & less about that - 'influence' over the DPRK isn't worth much. I'm honestly not sure the US cares much about 'influence' in the RoK either. Given Korea's history of being caught between its more powerful neighbours I would expect it to remain a strong US ally, though that may not mean US troops.

Also,for the refugee problem,I believe if enough money and preparation time is given, it may be able to be controlled.The key is to keep the refugees in NK land, that means food must be able to get inside NK as soon as possible, and by this I don't mean setting up refugee camps inside NK, I mean the food has to get to people's home.To do this the NK leadership and loyal force must be decisively and quickly killed and major fighting done as fast as posible.I believe the combined strengh of US,SK,China can pull this off is true co-operation is there.

All fine in theory, not sure how easy it will be in practice.

The SK military has trained with US military so co-operation is no problem there, as for china, since chinese and US military ways are diferent ,co-operation may be harder,but they can use the method of each force take care of different sectors and responsibilty, that means not even US air support in chinese area of responsibilty, if US is responsible for initial bombing, no chinese airplane allowed in area etc.This way military co-operation is possible

I don't forsee China formally co-operating with anyone militarily to take down the DPRK. I think I mentioned in another post the possibility that China might use a DPRK/RoK war as a pretext to take down the Kims, but the most 'co-operaton' there would be to avoid shooting each other by accident.

[doppelganger]

What is the scene between North and South Korea as against what we have between India and Pakistan? I mean on a people to people level? Do the two sides love each other and want reunification? Like East and West Germany?

[Tennetc]

it looks like China cares less & less about that - 'influence' over the DPRK isn't worth much. I'm honestly not sure the US cares much about 'influence' in the RoK either. Given Korea's history of being caught between its more powerful neighbours I would expect it to remain a strong US ally, though that may not mean US troops.

What I meant was influence on a united korea.China may not care for influence over a united korea, but would be wary if the united korea is firmly in the US camp, so in any event that may lead to a united korea, china will try all ways to try and keep some influence over there, same for USA, she will try to keep the united korea a US ally to counter china. Of couse the united kora hershelf will want more independence so, it is going to be interesting.

[Tennetc]

What is the scene between North and South Korea as against what we have between India and Pakistan? I mean on a people to people level? Do the two sides love each other and want reunification? Like East and West Germany?

From what I know, old people in SK still care about the families in NK, the young people don't care much,they may not hate the NK common people, but old or young, they are not willing to give up their good life now to help NK's people come to the 21st century.

The NK people's view towards SK's people is harder to know because real news from there is hard to get, but I suspect the young totally brain-washed one truely hate the S koreans

[doppelganger]

but old or young, they are not willing to give up their good life now to help NK's people come to the 21st century.

Thanks Tennetc. Sort of like what West Germans felt towards East Germans when the wall came down?

I think the good part in both cases was that there was no religious hatred involved. That tears brothers up worse than strangers in terms of enmity.

[Officer of Engineers]

Actually now that I recall, the Chinese actually wanted US troops to stay in a united Korea. It's the only thing stopping a united Korea from going to war against Japan.

[Parihaka]

In my mind the key is for the Chinese to buy off the KPA. New toys and training, bilateral exercises etc. A few fat pensions, a reasonable time spent poo throwing and the latest Kim gets shuffled off to a life of contemplation in a monastery and a 'colonial administrator' gets put in his place. Start lots of joint venture factories paying slave labour rates which are still 10 times better than what the NK population currently gets, make sure everyone gets fed and you have the model both the PRC and RoK used to lift both their countries. 20 years from now the two countries sit down and talk about some sort of Hong Kong type solution.
As for the KPA, by this time what's left of them will be rotating through the rest of China, just as the Romans did with their foreign battalions.

[Blademaster]

In my mind the key is for the Chinese to buy off the KPA. New toys and training, bilateral exercises etc. A few fat pensions, a reasonable time spent poo throwing and the latest Kim gets shuffled off to a life of contemplation in a monastery and a 'colonial administrator' gets put in his place. Start lots of joint venture factories paying slave labour rates which are still 10 times better than what the NK population currently gets, make sure everyone gets fed and you have the model both the PRC and RoK used to lift both their countries. 20 years from now the two countries sit down and talk about some sort of Hong Kong type solution.
As for the KPA, by this time what's left of them will be rotating through the rest of China, just as the Romans did with their foreign battalions.

And SK is ok with this? I mean I can understand disliking the NKs but letting NK completely go the way of Chinese is a stupid move long term. If I was SK, it would be in my long term best interest to get NK unified with SK and under SK's system.

[Parihaka]

And SK is ok with this? I mean I can understand disliking the NKs but letting NK completely go the way of Chinese is a stupid move long term. If I was SK, it would be in my long term best interest to get NK unified with SK and under SK's system.

But to balance that they'd have to cover huge costs that would make the incorporation of East Germany seem like childs play. I'm not suggesting that China take over, i'm suggesting that China has to make the first move in disposing of the Kims, then who takes over long term becomes a discussion between China and SK. I mean it can't be worse for anyone than it currently is....

[Officer of Engineers]

But to balance that they'd have to cover huge costs that would make the incorporation of East Germany seem like childs play. I'm not suggesting that China take over, i'm suggesting that China has to make the first move in disposing of the Kims, then who takes over long term becomes a discussion between China and SK. I mean it can't be worse for anyone than it currently is....

Of course it can. Imagine a North Korea's Deng Xia Peng determined to win back the South.

[Blademaster]

There are times where you have to bite the bullet. In this case, letting the China completely subvert NK into another province of China is a very bad move and worse long term. If I were SK, I would secretly hope that Kim Jong Un holds out for another decade while my economy gets into $2T range and start saving some money to inject into NK once NK collapses and SK takes over.

I do not agree with China's or OOE's thinking that an unified Korea would turn its attention towards Japan. Why? Because SK would be so busy rehabilitating NK for 20 or 30 years and by that time, any memories of WWII are long dead since the surviving members are now dead or don't remember and the next generation may only remember their parents' grievances but did not have the experience that their parents had so their desire for revenge is significantly lessened over time. By the time, an unified Korea is ready to turn its attention to anywhere, the geopolitical reality would have change making those fears that Beijing and Washington have groundless.