China invades Taiwan

[Double Edge]

The more I think about it, the more I don't think a blockade will work. There's no way in hell the China Navy can blockade the Eastern side of Taiwan. Get too close to Taiwanese shores and they will be clobbered by Taiwanese defences. Too far away and shipping will slip through and God help you if you tried to intercept shipping intended for Japan.

There are 4 Taiwanese submarines in service. A brand new one is coming on line with 7 more to follow.

BTW, Jason, no one I've read believed China has 5th generation aircrafts. They're all 4.5 pretending to be 5th. They may look nice but the Chinese lacked the metalurgy and engine technology to make it all work.

But let's assume that Japan and the US won't get involved. HOWEVER, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and every freaking SCS country surely would. No, they won't sail to Taiwan's rescue but they would take advantage of China's absence in the SCS. That's because China would have to throw everything she got at Taiwan. Every ship that can do blockade will do blockade and even then, there would be big time leakage.

This essentially means China just handed some very nice sand castles to Vietnam. And Duarte will be demanding tribute while arresting Chinese fishing ships.

The basic problem with taking Taiwan by force is big brother wants you back in the old family home and is threatening to blow up your new house and kill your kids ?

Makes no sense whatsoever

Any threats to use force can only be posturing.

Let's say China does use force. They expend huge resources to mount the invasion. If the Taiwanese roll over soon after then it was worth it.

If they do not then there will be a fight. Taiwan's war plans according to Colonel Shen do not account for any US help because there is no clear commitment.

Taiwan for all intents and purposes is alone. No US or Japan coming to the rescue.

So Taiwan gets attacked and there is further loss which then has to be rebuilt later.

This is not a VFM solution. Is shock & awe part of the Chinese DNA ? Sounds so American.

It will be a pyrrhic victory. CCP wins but the Chinese people as a whole lose.

Now there is a hole in the first island chain wall which can lead to more greatness.



Taking Taiwan primarily depends on Taiwan. Nothing more. Whatever logistics problems you foresee can and will be overcome.

Calculating Taiwan won't put up a fight or much of a fight.

Assessing Taiwan's will to fight.

Figure that out and the attempt to take Taiwan can begin tomorrow.

[zraver]

The article is also super vague. 10 brigades doesn't mean much. A bunch of tanks driving on and off ships looks scary but is pointless. However a joint exercise by say 2 naval infantry, 1 airborne infantry, 1 armor, 1 engineer, 1 artillery, 1 air defense, 1 aviation and 1 logistics brigade all training together on beach assaults actually says something useful. The article doesn't tell us.

As an example, when Cheney announced the US was moving VII Corps and her heavy divisions from Europe to KSA. Saddam should have paid attention. That single announcement made it very clear the US was going to war.

[Officer of Engineers]

OOE says 10 years.

No, I'm stating that there will be a ten year gap between try #1 (which currently will fail) and try #2.

Best way for CCP to take Taiwan is to pull a Taliban which in effect was a Mao on the KMT

Ain't going to happen. The difference back then was Mao offerred rice. Chiang offerred corruption. Easy choice. Today, Beijing offers the image of a glorified unified China. Taipei offers 5% growth and points out a decline of standards of living if reunited with China. The choice is status quo.

How do you figure the logistics of that

Easiest way to take a castle. A donkey loaded with gold. Until Beijing can offer growth to Taiwan, any talk about invasion is just talk. If all Beijing offers is the poor house, bet on the Taiwanese fighting.

Go on then. This should be useful in other theatres as well.

Jason got the essentials down pretty pat. I will go further into the Chinese example.

In the 1990s, China embarked on a re-org called brigadization. At the time, outside observers were ignorant of the extend of the re-org. Brigadization was essentially taking a half of a divisions combat service and combat support assets and giving it to a single regiment. However, the bde is expected to assume the div's taskings. Essentially, a re-enforced regt (regt+) is expected to do the job of a div. (Can we see the problem right off the bat?)

It gets worst than this. The PLA Army, at the time, was expecting to use technology to leap frog the West model of (Bde-Div-Corps) to a brand new unseen model, Bn-Bde-Army. It was a freaking disaster. With technology, battalion is supposed to replace regt, Bde is supposed to replace div. Cannot be done. A single battlion, no matter how well enriched with technology cannot do the job of 3 battalions, let alone a regiment which is more than 3 battalions since it has eyes over 3 battalions. The same with Bde that cannot do the job of a division.

What's worst. Army HQ istead of overseeing 3 divisions is now overseeing 9 Bdes. The Chinese were overwhelming their C3 with intel and command overload.

None of this worked. How did we, outsiders knew? China's best armies retain their regt-div-army structure. The ONLY place we see brigades is where divisions ain't warrented, ie low population centres and desert commands.

Why statquo's article is BS, they're regiments, not brigades carrying out the exercises. Div command retained operational status. But what really jumped out was the reference of the 73rd Army Groiup. There's no sucuh thing. It's Eastern Command Area and the 73rd Group Army, ie the author knows shit about Chinese command structures.

A brigade as you said is independent in the PLA. Incidentally PLA does not have a brigadier rank, a brigade would come under Senior Colonel for them.

Brigades are commanded by MGens, ie div commanders. It's a career ender. Brigade commands do not lend to div commands which is a necessary for Army command.

[Double Edge]

In the US Army a brigade/ Brigade Combat Team (BCT) is often but not exclusively a combined arms formation that may or may not be part of a divisional structure.

A regiment is always a pure formation (only infantry or only armor etc) for historical and admin purposes. It may only have a single battalion on active duty, or even have all of it's colors furled. Regardless it is not a combat or tactical formation.

Unless it's an armored cavalry regiment which is really a demi-division/reenforced brigade

If I understand it right in the USMC, regiments serve as the primary sub-divisional unit for tactical control and brigades are administrative/ operational. The regiment is a pure formation until support assets are added and then it becomes a combined arms Regimental Combat Team (RCT) which is the primary maneuver unit of the Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB)

Soviet/Russian and China(?) A brigade is an independent maneuver or combat element not attached to a divisional structure. Regiments function as the main combat elements inside of the divisional structure and they are not pure but are organically combined arms unless they are specialist troops like air defense or artillery.

Thanks

Since June, no fewer than 10 People’s Liberation Army brigades have conducted maritime transportation exercises, noted Rod Lee, an analyst with the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute.

That's the only mention of brigades in the article. What do you find incorrect about it ?

A brigade as you said is independent in the PLA. Incidentally PLA does not have a brigadier rank, a brigade would come under Senior Colonel for them.

[Double Edge]

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday he had spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping about Taiwan and they agreed to abide by the Taiwan agreement.

Biden appeared to be referring to Washington's long-standing "one-China policy" under which it officially recognises Beijing rather than Taipei, and the Taiwan Relations Act, which makes clear that the U.S. decision to establish diplomatic ties with Beijing instead of Taiwan rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means.

I like the way this was phrased

it puts the pressure on China to back off or lose the one China policy.

[zraver]

Go on then. This should be useful in other theatres as well.

In the US Army a brigade/ Brigade Combat Team (BCT) is often but not exclusively a combined arms formation that may or may not be part of a divisional structure.

A regiment is always a pure formation (only infantry or only armor etc) for historical and admin purposes. It may only have a single battalion on active duty, or even have all of it's colors furled. Regardless it is not a combat or tactical formation.

Unless it's an armored cavalry regiment which is really a demi-division/reenforced brigade

If I understand it right in the USMC, regiments serve as the primary sub-divisional unit for tactical control and brigades are administrative/ operational. The regiment is a pure formation until support assets are added and then it becomes a combined arms Regimental Combat Team (RCT) which is the primary maneuver unit of the Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB)

Soviet/Russian and China(?) A brigade is an independent maneuver or combat element not attached to a divisional structure. Regiments function as the main combat elements inside of the divisional structure and they are not pure but are organically combined arms unless they are specialist troops like air defense or artillery.

[Double Edge]

Well then whoever it is in Washington who decides on Taiwan's military modernization has been either sleeping on the job or perhaps sending an intentional message that Washington may not be as interested in defending Taiwan as they might think. Taiwan's F-16's should have been upgraded to Block 50 standards ages ago. F-16A's are outclassed by just about any BVR capable Chinese jet and the PLAAF literally has several hundred of those now. There is a deal now to upgrade all of their F-16's but it has only recently got off the ground. Lets all hope that the PRC does not strike before the upgrade is complete.

Put that down to how long the CCP has managed to fool the west that it is only interested in peaceful rise.

Many quislings and wall street traitors who would subvert their govt just to make a buck.

You can go as far back as Carter recognising China with this one.

[Double Edge]

I could pick this article apart but I will have to goto length the difference between brigade and regiment. To the layperson, they are the one and the same but to a military man, the expectations and performances between the two are drastically different even though on the surface, they looked the same - 3 battalions.

Go on then. This should be useful in other theatres as well.

[Double Edge]

What do you mean since 2005? It's been a topic since 1949 and even before then, Chiang Kei Shek was demanding Taiwan's return from Japan,

The reason why nothing is new is because of the age old axiom. Amateurs think strategy and tactics. Professionals think logistics. I've been killing the Taiwan scenario each and everytime since 1973 with the same question. The same question I used today. What about the logistics?

Answer that question first before anything else.

Best way for CCP to take Taiwan is to pull a Taliban which in effect was a Mao on the KMT

Persuade the Taiwanese not to fight

The Taiwanese have to believe they are completely alone and nobody will do anything.

How do you figure the logistics of that

[zraver]

Right now Taiwan has The Great Silicon Wall around the island. Once semiconductors start mass production elsewhere China can think about invading. Until then nothing short of a declaration of independence will light off the missiles.

[Double Edge]

You do understand that it would take at least 10 years for China to do try #2.

No that’s why I asked lol

The answer to this question depends on who you ask.

OOE says 10 years. Taiwanese Colonel Shen Meng Shi also thinks there is time.

Admiral Davidson (previous INDOPACOM commander) said within the next five years

The America opposition (Sen. Tom Cotton) reckons just after the winter Olympics in 2022 like how Russia went into Ukraine after the Sochi Olympics .

The Taiwanese defense minister said recently by 2025

Captain James Fanell thinks China has the ability to launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan now.

and so on....



Let's say China has the ability to do it now. What is missing is the will ?

Capability isn't the point. Will is what it takes. The will to suffer horrendous casualties and weather out whatever else the world does to China. And there are an array of measures without the US having to go kinetic. eg. cut off China's access to dollars.

CCP leader asks how long to get control of Taiwan ?

PLA commanders confer and reply....3 months....6 months.....<shrug>

long pause....



So long as this remains the best PLA answer then Taiwan remains as is.

Taiwan can further beef up coastal defenses. Cruise missiles. More sea mines. There was a project to develop autonomous undersea drones using AI but that project got canned by the US Congress.

What will it take for China to shorten that assessment ? They can develop all the weapons they want but without the will they remain show pieces. Good for posturing and nothing more.

Kinda like the dog and pony show the CCP is putting up now in the lead up to Taiwan day

There's people like CFR head, Richard Haas advocating the US enter into a formal defense treaty with Taiwan.

No more strategic ambiguity. Strategic clarity instead.

That debate is still going on.

Strategic ambiguity keeps both sides happy and is the lowest cost option.

[DOR]

China's closest airbase to Taiwan is probably Longtian (which they have been recently expanding btw along with some others). It is ~200km from Taipei. Less than that from Hsinchu. Even if most Chinese aircraft take off from other bases which are farther away the distances involved would not seem to require aerial refueling, especially near contested airspace. They will be sending Flankers and H-6K's not J-7's and J-8II's. The new H-6 versions might launch cruise missiles from well inside Fujian.

Good estimate, but the two Taiwan places are closer than you think: 218km to Hsinchu (from Fuzhou), 233km to Taipei.

[Officer of Engineers]

And what about all their missiles - ballistic and cruise?

2000 SSMs, ~650 ALCMs. Don't know about the naval component since they're CMC assets, ie may or may not be reserved for nuclear delivery.

Still, we did 2000 sorties per day during the Kuwait War and 900 cruise missile strikes on Baghdad the first day of the Iraq War and in both times, we still had to punch through the Republican Guard. The PRC simply do not have the munitions for 2000 air/missile strike packages per day for 30 days.

They have what 9 airbases? Even if they keep all their aircraft safe in hardened shelters the Chinese can still crater the runways with missile strikes

Quick drying cement. You want to know why we hit air bases over and over again? The first time is to damage the air base to render it inoperational. The subsequent times is to come back to kill the engineers repairing the airbase. A one time strike is not going to disable an airbase, especially if your CEP is 50 metres+.

Again, none of this is without risk and will not go perfectly. The PLAAF will lose aircraft for sure. But they have plenty to spare and I believe the PRC would be willing to take far more losses taking Taiwan than they might in other conflicts.

No airplane has ever taken or held ground. Even after all the damage we've done to the Iraqis during the Kuwait War and the Iraq War, we still had to punch through their front lines. The China AF will do far, far, far less damage to the RoCA (not the RoCAF) than we did to the Iraqis.

Another thing, the China AF doesn't have B-52s, they ain't going to do any carpet bombing which means a hell of a lot less damage to Taiwan. After the initial expenitutres, the China AF and the SRF would be reduced to annoyance hits designed to instill terror rather than counter-force strikes.

[Firestorm]

That's the other elephant in room. Even if you restrict yourself to Western Taiwan then. It would soon become apparent that the China Air Force would run out of bombs long before they run out of targets with a miniscue effect on the RoCA combat effectiveness. The China AF simply do not have the bombs to bomb the RoCA into surrender, let alone into destruction.

And what about all their missiles - ballistic and cruise? Are you counting them? Also, easy availability of PGM's of various types has reduced the number of munitions they will have to expend per target. Taiwan isn't a big place. They have what 9 airbases? Even if they keep all their aircraft safe in hardened shelters the Chinese can still crater the runways with missile strikes. Followed by SEAD missions to target the AD radars while the RoCAF crews are busy repairing the runways so their aircraft can take off. And then overwhelm the RoCAF with fighter sweeps after they have lost most of their SAM cover.

Again, none of this is without risk and will not go perfectly. The PLAAF will lose aircraft for sure. But they have plenty to spare and I believe the PRC would be willing to take far more losses taking Taiwan than they might in other conflicts.

[Officer of Engineers]

True but western Taiwan appears to be a lot more target rich especially if the Chinese are trying to break their will to keep fighting while waiting for US intervention. Lots of highly developed urban areas and juicy civilian infrastructure to attack there.

That's the other elephant in room. Even if you restrict yourself to Western Taiwan then. It would soon become apparent that the China Air Force would run out of bombs long before they run out of targets with a miniscue effect on the RoCA combat effectiveness. The China AF simply do not have the bombs to bomb the RoCA into surrender, let alone into destruction.