China invades Taiwan

[statquo]

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Wonder if we could speak to the recent exercises that the Chinese performed in response to Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. We talked earlier in this thread about the possibilities of a Chinese blockade of the island in the event of an invasion. Commentators have stated that these exercises were a rehearsal for a blockade of Taiwan. Has it changed anyone's position on the possibility of a future successful Chinese blockade?

[Officer of Engineers]

Chinese ASW still sucks!

[astralis]

yeah, blockade alone is not a viable threat. gives the US significant time and space to marshal forces and then pick the place to break the PLA Navy.

[DOR]

Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan
National Defense University Press, Washington DC

Both the U.S. and Chinese militaries are increasingly focused on a possible confrontation over Taiwan. China regards the island as an integral part of its territory and is building military capabilities to deter Taiwan independence and to compel Taiwan to accept unification. These efforts have shifted the military balance in China’s favor and heightened the risk of war. At the same time, the United States insists that China and Taiwan resolve their dispute peacefully and is strengthening its military capabilities in the Western Pacific to deter a possible Chinese attack.

Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan explores the political and military context of cross-strait relations, with a focus on understanding the Chinese decision calculus about using force, the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army would bring to the fight, and what Taiwan can do to defend itself. Based on original research by leading international experts, Crossing the Strait explores China’s military options and the PLA’s ability to execute them. The authors use a range of Chinese sources to assess the PLA’s improved amphibious, airborne, logistics, sealift, command and control, and urban warfare capabilities and how they might be employed in a military conflict. The authors conclude that the PLA has made significant improvements and can already execute several military campaigns, but still lacks critical airlift, sealift, logistics, and other capabilities necessary to invade and occupy Taiwan. Under the guidance of current Central Military Commission Chairman Xi Jinping, the PLA is working hard to address these shortcomings.

Crossing the Strait also considers what Taiwan, the United States, and other parties can do to prepare a more effective defense. Taiwan has increasingly focused on acquiring asymmetric and innovative military systems to blunt Chinese aggression. Yet contributors to the volume suggest that current efforts are insufficient: Taiwan needs to do more to prepare for the full range of contingencies it might face from the People’s Liberation Army. A Taiwan with the right strategy, training, and force investments can pose a formidable wartime challenge and thus improve deterrence. Given the high stakes, the volume should be of interest to policymakers and practitioners alike.

https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Publication...ng-the-Strait/

[tbm3fan]

You know a sane person would simply hold a referendum asking the Taiwanese do you want, or do you not want to reunite with mainland China. I'm pretty sure we can guess what the answer will be by a huge margin. The professional Taiwanese I know are vehemently anti-reunite. Now is Xi a sane person?

[DOR]

You know a sane person would simply hold a referendum asking the Taiwanese do you want, or do you not want to reunite with mainland China. I'm pretty sure we can guess what the answer will be by a huge margin. The professional Taiwanese I know are vehemently anti-reunite. Now is Xi a sane person?

They tried that in Hong Kong, and the people who suggested it ended up in jail.

[Dazed]

You know a sane person would simply hold a referendum asking the Taiwanese do you want, or do you not want to reunite with mainland China. I'm pretty sure we can guess what the answer will be by a huge margin. The professional Taiwanese I know are vehemently anti-reunite. Now is Xi a sane person?

Before Nixon went to China and the ROC was China when you said China. Chiang Kai-Shek through delusion and the fact Mao was doing his best to destroy the PRC, never thought of the two as being separate nations. I talk to citizens of the ROC often. I would say about 54 percent go with the independence without declaring it. Geopolitical don't say, don't tell.

[Monash]

They tried that in Hong Kong, and the people who suggested it ended up in jail.

Yes but there is direct land link between China and Hong Kong, which to all intents and purposes meant China could just about do anything it wanted in Hong Kong, any time it wanted once it decided it was really necessary. Ain't no such thing between China and Taiwan. Just like with Britain and NAZI Germany, a few miles of ocean make a world of difference to how easy it is to impose your will on someone.

That said holding such a referendum and then acting on it would 'pull the trigger' in Beijing. It would be decision making time. Invade, yes or no? No going back either way.

[Officer of Engineers]

According to Beijing, even prepping for a referemdum is akin to prep work towards Formal Independence. It is Casis Beli.

[tbm3fan]

Then I guess 28 million people will need to be sent to re-education camps to properly indoctrinate (wash) them...

PS: maybe I should have said 28 million sheep

[Officer of Engineers]

It's still a 400K RoCA vs a 30K China Army invasion force. My bet has been and will continue to be on the Taiwanese for the foreseeable future.

[astralis]

these days, I think a safer assumption is roughly 80-120K ROCA vs 60K PLA, with the PLA holding air superiority and able to call on PLARF.

[Officer of Engineers]

these days, I think a safer assumption is roughly 80-120K ROCA vs 60K PLA, with the PLA holding air superiority and able to call on PLARF.

Think you can drop the air superiority after the China AF just hired 30 exRAF pilots as consultants for training. 30 pilots? That's a hell of a lot of knowledge the Chinese are missing.

[DOR]

Multiply that PLA edge by the number of PLAAF pilots with actual combat experience.

[Firestorm]

Multiply that PLA edge by the number of PLAAF pilots with actual combat experience.

Isn't that equally true on the Taiwanese side?