China invades Taiwan

[statquo]

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Wonder if we could speak to the recent exercises that the Chinese performed in response to Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. We talked earlier in this thread about the possibilities of a Chinese blockade of the island in the event of an invasion. Commentators have stated that these exercises were a rehearsal for a blockade of Taiwan. Has it changed anyone's position on the possibility of a future successful Chinese blockade?

[Gun Grape]

On Tuesday, the Chinese coast guard attacked a 2 ship convoy on its way to resupply a Philippine outpost in the Spratly's.

Deterred them with water hoses. ( Not Philippine military vessels either) Not the first time they have interfered, won't be the last. The Philippine's had agreed to remove the ship at Thomas shoals before the Pres of China visited a while back. The Shoals are not in Philippine National Waters, and the International Court denied their claim.

This stuff with the Spratleys goes back over 100 years, but didn't become important till oil and minerals were found. Now everyone has rushed to lay claim to one or more islands.

Its a long and interesting story. And the US is to blame for part of the mess going back to the end of the Spanish American War.

[zraver]

On Tuesday, the Chinese coast guard attacked a 2 ship convoy on its way to resupply a Philippine outpost in the Spratly's.

[Gun Grape]

Bringing air convoys in would require a massive effort by USAF/ USN fighters to keep the shoulders of the air corridor pushed out far enough to keep the Chinese fighters out of missile range.

Not at all. Park a SAG North and South of the island. Declare a AEZ over the area while "Humanitarian ops" are ongoing.

[Gun Grape]

That's roughly 26 gallons of fuel per truck per round trip. Plus the fuel needed for the plane to make the return flight. Yeah it's not as far over land, but it's thousands of miles from a friendly port.

731 km/454 miles to Okinawa. Naha International Airport. They can also use Kadena and Futema

J-10 with PL-12 has an effective intercept range of 1000km.

Bringing air convoys in would require a massive effort by USAF/ USN fighters to keep the shoulders of the air corridor pushed out far enough to keep the Chinese fighters out of missile range.

PL-12 has an operational range of 70-100km.Dont care what platform you shoot it from

[zraver]

Except the Red Ball express ran 250miles and the widest part of Taiwan is 90 miles

That's roughly 26 gallons of fuel per truck per round trip. Plus the fuel needed for the plane to make the return flight. Yeah it's not as far over land, but it's thousands of miles from a friendly port.

MOG rates of airfields the Chinese can fly from, fuel load of planes to allow them to mass, distance to tgt area and ToS once there. One way ticket.They have to go Feet Dry to be in range of the east coast airports

J-10 with PL-12 has an effective intercept range of 1000km.

Bringing air convoys in would require a massive effort by USAF/ USN fighters to keep the shoulders of the air corridor pushed out far enough to keep the Chinese fighters out of missile range.

[Officer of Engineers]

Not really. You can supply a city by air, not a populous country. Planes cannot carry enough weight for an affordable cost per mile of bulk foodstuffs to feed the population or fuel and raw materials in and exports out to keep the economy going. That's if you can find enough cargo planes. Taiwan imports billions of dollars a year in US agricultural products. Taiwan her self can only provide 30% of her people's peace time caloric intake. Rationing might double that but you are still short more than a third of the need. Ask Vietnam, Imperial Germany and Imperial Japan what happens when sea control is lost by a nation that is not self sufficient in food.

Leaving the air lanes open could actually an offensive weapon by China. Leave a way out for the rich and elites. When they take the bait and run, morale will collapse amongst those not able to leave. We just saw that in Afghanistan.

Air control is only really useful as it pertains to keeping merchant ships away.

Forget the food stuff. Ship Taiwan a bunch of torpedo reloads and the sea blockade disappears overnight. You guys are better than this. Don't play to the Chinese advantages (ie how to break the blockade without going to war with China), play to their disadvantages (Chinese ASW absolutely sucks) and since the China Navy cannot operate close to Taiwanese shores, else being swamped by coastal defences, that leaves a hell of a lot of open water with zero choke points for RoCN submarines to run amok.

[Officer of Engineers]

There is a counter to what I said.

CCP has done it before. Southern Mongolia, Xianjiang & Tibet. All military takeovers.

Taiwan is just another renegade province but with a difference, these guys are armed.

In theory, not a walkover like they had in the past. Even in the 50s not a walkover.

So there is going to be destruction and then rebuilding.

Am thinking deterrence.

If Taiwan loses it then whatever logistics will be taken care of.

The application of overwhelming force is not just a deterrent, it is a damned war winning strategy. Taiwan has it. The Mainland don't.

[Gun Grape]

Maybe, but all of Taiwan's biggest cities exist within range of the HQ-9 (S-300PMU clone). So planes will have to land on the east side of the Island. Less airfield capacity, and bigger fuel requirements to move goods from the East to West coasts. Becomes a modern version of the problems faced by the Red Ball Express.

Except the Red Ball express ran 250miles and the widest part of Taiwan is 90 miles

Then there might be a modern version of convoy PQ17. The planes would almost certainly have to come in with an massive escort lest Chinese fighters with PL-12 missiles get within 100km and start knocking them down. To keep a 100km missile away from them you would need to set up a cordon that is heaviest N and S of the Island leaving the center for mainly RoC SAM's and local fighters. But if any PLAAF fighters got through to launch missiles.... The PLAAF might well be willing to risk a lot of fighters to murder an air convoy to drive insurance rates up to impossibly high so that DHL, Fed EX etc decide to stay home (except for planes bought with government assistance).

MOG rates of airfields the Chinese can fly from, fuel load of planes to allow them to mass, distance to tgt area and ToS once there. One way ticket.They have to go Feet Dry to be in range of the east coast airports

[zraver]

Z, you can provide sufficient foodstuffs from keeping the island from starving. Forget about any thought of saving the economy. It is pure survival only. And I am doubtful it will only be Taiwanese aircraft flying. And it doesn't need to be US. It can be DHL, FedEx and many other commercial freight carriers.

Maybe, but all of Taiwan's biggest cities exist within range of the HQ-9 (S-300PMU clone). So planes will have to land on the east side of the Island. Less airfield capacity, and bigger fuel requirements to move goods from the East to West coasts. Becomes a modern version of the problems faced by the Red Ball Express.

Then there might be a modern version of convoy PQ17. The planes would almost certainly have to come in with an massive escort lest Chinese fighters with PL-12 missiles get within 100km and start knocking them down. To keep a 100km missile away from them you would need to set up a cordon that is heaviest N and S of the Island leaving the center for mainly RoC SAM's and local fighters. But if any PLAAF fighters got through to launch missiles.... The PLAAF might well be willing to risk a lot of fighters to murder an air convoy to drive insurance rates up to impossibly high so that DHL, Fed EX etc decide to stay home (except for planes bought with government assistance).

Hopefully the RoC has enough stored food and fuel to give the USN the time it needs to beat back the PLAN and PLAAF. Would suck to win a Midway style battle on a June 4, when Taipei vice Corregidor fell a month earlier...

[Albany Rifles]

If a relatively prosperous population used to a certain standard of living is suddenly reduced to bare-survival level existence dependent on an air-bridge to feed their kids, their morale will not last long. Especially knowing that they can get back to normal (or close to it) by acceding to Chinese demands.

Totally agree...it would be a stop gap at best. And I am not saying it is a preferred method or outcome.

Was this after the Nov 2003 incident when a DHL jet was hit by an SA-14 on takeoff from Baghdad and almost went down?

Yup, sure was! It's also when FedEx and UPS said....we ain't going there!!!

[Firestorm]

BITD we had to ship about 900 computers & peripherals to US Forces at Baghdad International. The only shipper we could use was DHL...which was the only carrier willing to risk the flight.

It was cheaper to send 3,000 computer sets all over the country, Europe and the Pacific than that single 900 shipment!

Insurance rates are a bitch!

Was this after the Nov 2003 incident when a DHL jet was hit by an SA-14 on takeoff from Baghdad and almost went down?

[Firestorm]

Z, you can provide sufficient foodstuffs from keeping the island from starving. Forget about any thought of saving the economy. It is pure survival only. And I am doubtful it will only be Taiwanese aircraft flying. And it doesn't need to be US. It can be DHL, FedEx and many other commercial freight carriers.

If a relatively prosperous population used to a certain standard of living is suddenly reduced to bare-survival level existence dependent on an air-bridge to feed their kids, their morale will not last long. Especially knowing that they can get back to normal (or close to it) by acceding to Chinese demands.

[Albany Rifles]

...At some "elevated" insurance rates!

BITD we had to ship about 900 computers & peripherals to US Forces at Baghdad International. The only shipper we could use was DHL...which was the only carrier willing to risk the flight.

It was cheaper to send 3,000 computer sets all over the country, Europe and the Pacific than that single 900 shipment!

Insurance rates are a bitch!

[DOR]

Z, you can provide sufficient foodstuffs from keeping the island from starving. Forget about any thought of saving the economy. It is pure survival only. And I am doubtful it will only be Taiwanese aircraft flying. And it doesn't need to be US. It can be DHL, FedEx and many other commercial freight carriers.

...At some "elevated" insurance rates!