China invades Taiwan

[Officer of Engineers]

J20 pilot claims he was unopposed over the Taiwan Straits

https://eurasiantimes.com/chinas-j-2...an-undetected/

This will lead to stupid being done.

[Officer of Engineers]

Well before Nixon's visit, no one was going to strike a defense arrangement with Taiwan (except R&D with Israel or South Africa).

So what? Neither Seoul, Tokyo, nor Taipei saw the need of a united front then. They don't now.

Japan, Taiwan, and Korea all supported the US in Vietnam, the latter more openly than the others.

Yes, they supported the UNITED STATES, not each other.

As for the Japanese navy cruising through Taiwan-claimed waters, why twist China's tail like that?
In the 1980s/90s, Japanese companies were just beginning to invest in China, and Deng Xiaoping was playing nice with the (northern) neighbors, for the most part.

You're ignoring the fact it was Taipei who said no. Taipei does not want Japanese help.

[DOR]

And attitude is precisely the point. The three most powerful American allies in East Asia do not have an alliance with each other and it ain't because the Americans ain't trying. In the 1980s/1990s, the US got Japan to agree to support American efforts, not Taiwanese efforts, but American efforts in protecting Taiwan. Taipei said thanks but no thanks and still refuse to have any Japanese warships in their waters.

Well before Nixon's visit, no one was going to strike a defense arrangement with Taiwan (except R&D with Israel or South Africa).

Japan, Taiwan, and Korea all supported the US in Vietnam, the latter more openly than the others.

As for the Japanese navy cruising through Taiwan-claimed waters, why twist China's tail like that?
In the 1980s/90s, Japanese companies were just beginning to invest in China, and Deng Xiaoping was playing nice with the (northern) neighbors, for the most part.

[Officer of Engineers]

No argument there.
But, the topic was Taiwanese attitude toward Japan, wasn't it?
By the way, do you know of any Asian nation that trains to fight with Taiwan?

And attitude is precisely the point. The three most powerful American allies in East Asia do not have an alliance with each other and it ain't because the Americans ain't trying. In the 1980s/1990s, the US got Japan to agree to support American efforts, not Taiwanese efforts, but American efforts in protecting Taiwan. Taipei said thanks but no thanks and still refuse to have any Japanese warships in their waters.

[DOR]

Again. Train as you fight. Fight as you train. The Japanese do not train to fight in Taiwanese waters nor with Taiwanese ships in any way. When push comes to shove, all Japan can do is to get out of the way.

The ONLY country who can intervene is the US and in that case, it is the Taiwanese who would have to get out of the way.

No argument there.
But, the topic was Taiwanese attitude toward Japan, wasn't it?
By the way, do you know of any Asian nation that trains to fight with Taiwan?

[Officer of Engineers]

When push comes to shove, Taiwan and Japan have a lot more in common vis-a-vis China than you'd think

Again. Train as you fight. Fight as you train. The Japanese do not train to fight in Taiwanese waters nor with Taiwanese ships in any way. When push comes to shove, all Japan can do is to get out of the way.

The ONLY country who can intervene is the US and in that case, it is the Taiwanese who would have to get out of the way.

[DOR]

Doesn't change the fact that Taipei does not want Japanese help in Taiwanese defence to the point that they told the Japanese to stay out of Chinese waters (including those controlled by the ML).

In Taiwanese domestic politics, the claim to off-shore islands vs. Japan is very different from the claim to off-shore islands vs. the PRC. The Diaoyutai / Senkaku issue is a very small segment of Taiwan-Japanese relations, and really has very little to do with the threat -- to either / both -- from the PRC. When push comes to shove, Taiwan and Japan have a lot more in common vis-a-vis China than you'd think.

[Officer of Engineers]

I agree the force ratios don't favor the Mainland but it's not that lopsided anymore -- both due to increase in Mainland capes and reduction in Taiwanese capes.

Try as I might, I cannot picture anything else but continued lopsideness. I mean the best the PLAAF ever come up with was a 40 plane sortie in an ex and that was a simple take off, assemble in air, and land. We, and the Taiwanese, call it a Tuesday.

plus there's the battlefield geometry, obviously you're not gonna get 400K ROCA sitting just outside the beaches close to Taipei.

If we're going that route, it's even more lopsided. The best landing ex the PLA ever managed was regt. Regforce, not res, armies (as in 3 corps) are waiting on the beaches.

PLA also gets first mover advantage via PLARF. it is an unknown how ROCA/ROCAF/ROCN will react.

But we know how the PLAAF and PLARF will act. Either they shoot their entire wad in a day (do recall we did 1000+ sorties per day for 30 days in the Kuwait War) or they do piecemeal ala Russia/UKR. Neither of which is sufficient fire.

in peacetime, no. in wartime, I would bet Taipei would be screaming for anyone to help out, Martians and SWSNBN included.

of course, on a "just do your own thing" basis, because Taipei and Tokyo don't have integrated war plans.

Train as you fight. Fight as you train. The best the Japanese can do in that situation is to get the hell out of the way. Blue-on-blue is too great a risk.

[astralis]

At best, despite what Eric says, it' still a max of 30K Mainland troops vs 400K pissed off Taiwanese

I agree the force ratios don't favor the Mainland but it's not that lopsided anymore -- both due to increase in Mainland capes and reduction in Taiwanese capes.

plus there's the battlefield geometry, obviously you're not gonna get 400K ROCA sitting just outside the beaches close to Taipei.

PLA also gets first mover advantage via PLARF. it is an unknown how ROCA/ROCAF/ROCN will react.

the US assumed UkrAF was gonna be toast in the initial Russian air force strikes, but it turned out UkrAF dispersal plus poor Russian kill chain allowed significantly survivability.

... and that 30K can be reduced by simple tricks (sunk freighters, Czech hedgehogs, minefields, and field fortifications).

completely concur.

plus of course even if the PLA gets off the beach, they gotta fight across limited and very very built up axis of advance into a huge metropolitan area. the C2 and logistics of that is an insane nightmare.

Doesn't change the fact that Taipei does not want Japanese help in Taiwanese defence to the point that they told the Japanese to stay out of Chinese waters (including those controlled by the ML).

in peacetime, no. in wartime, I would bet Taipei would be screaming for anyone to help out, Martians and SWSNBN included.

of course, on a "just do your own thing" basis, because Taipei and Tokyo don't have integrated war plans.

[Officer of Engineers]

That sounds a lot more like the Koreans than the Taiwanese.
The Taiwanese I know have a lot of respect and admiration for the Japanese.

Doesn't change the fact that Taipei does not want Japanese help in Taiwanese defence to the point that they told the Japanese to stay out of Chinese waters (including those controlled by the ML).

[DOR]

Oh God, Washington, take a hint. The Taiwanese hate the Japanese more than they fear the Chinese. And again, sink a damn freighter before the beaches and the Chinese are kept off shore.

That sounds a lot more like the Koreans than the Taiwanese.
The Taiwanese I know have a lot of respect and admiration for the Japanese.

[Officer of Engineers]

But lots of others for smaller scale landings. Most countries I'd say you were correct. But Using Ukraine as a template? The 'Great Leader' involved isn't particularity concerned about casualties. Initially at least, so long as ground is taken.

So a bunch of unsupported light inf bns vs entire mech div, if not corps. Chopped liver comes to mind.

[Monash]

There's only 3 beaches suitable for mass landing.

But lots of others for smaller scale landings. Most countries I'd say you were correct. But Using Ukraine as a template? The 'Great Leader' involved isn't particularity concerned about casualties. Initially at least, so long as ground is taken.

[Officer of Engineers]

That's an awful lot of tonnage to sink, Taiwan is a big island with lots of potentially exploitable landing zones, more so on the West coast than the East but even so? Block ships will protect the entrances to ports yes, but all of the beaches?

There's only 3 beaches suitable for mass landing. The PLA might be able to do multiple bn level helo insert/jumps but that essentially means light inf vs entrenched troops with a heavy mech res coming forth.

At best, despite what Eric says, it' still a max of 30K Mainland troops vs 400K pissed off Taiwanese ... and that 30K can be reduced by simple tricks (sunk freighters, Czech hedgehogs, minefields, and field fortifications).

[Monash]

Oh God, Washington, take a hint. The Taiwanese hate the Japanese more than they fear the Chinese. And again, sink a damn freighter before the beaches and the Chinese are kept off shore.

That's an awful lot of tonnage to sink, Taiwan is a big island with lots of potentially exploitable landing zones, more so on the West coast than the East but even so? Block ships will protect the entrances to ports yes, but all of the beaches?