China invades Taiwan

[Officer of Engineers]

The problem with this scenario is that the Chinese surrenders all initiatives to the Americans. The Americans can decide how, when, and if they will move. The Chinese can only wait for that decision. Not a good move.

[Dazed]

No army in history has swam 1 km, let alone 100 km.

What if the PRC engages in a selective blockade? US reacts submarine and naval surface warfare, USAF/USN air strikes. Blockade also closes the PRC ports. No commercial air or sea service to Taiwan as it is a war zone.

ROK Japan, PI are like NATO in the 1973 war. They want no part of it and don't allow US to conduct operations from their soil.

PRC uses air strikes and SSMs just useful enough to destroy a lot of stuff and people.

Everybody closes their airspace to the PRC. PRC will have the most expensive, longest transit and least capable lift in the belt and road system.

Will the US and the people/leadership of Taiwan wait it out and survive?

[Bigfella]

No army in history has swam 1 km, let alone 100 km.

Quite.

There is a reason there are so few large amphibious invasions in the modern era and why anything much wider than a river crossing has required US navy involvement (the Falklands being on a much smaller scale that what China needs to do). Very difficult to cross 100km of sea of someone is trying to stop you.

[Officer of Engineers]

No army in history has swam 1 km, let alone 100 km.

[santosh10]

i was talking about how we need the 'people', the men, who will fight any war. India, Russia has the military men which they mean for it. if we go to sea china, its all China. how far Taiwan from mainland china, within 100 km.
weaponries matters but its the people who fight any war. what war US has fought? is it Afghan or Iraq, Syria or Libia? even Vietnam war was a meaning of having people on ground. India, Russia, even Pakistan has people in their border, similarly mainland China. who will fight war in Taiwan? its all china
US can't resist China there, Taiwan will sooner or later is set to be part of China. its location within 100km of China too, its certainly there is no resistance to China, what i find.....

[Officer of Engineers]

India and Russia can sail into the South China Seas as does the US and Western Allies. It's called Freedom of Navigation. To fight in the SCS, however, requires dominance of the Seas and thus far, 13 American carriers and their respective Carrier Groups, not to mention the world's quietest submarine fleet and the best ASW bar none on the planet have no equals.

For example, damage control. Check on Chinese carriers where are their fire suppression systems. Where the Chinese have fire extinguishers, the Americans have fire fighting pipes and pressured hoses. Damage control is not an afterthought. It's a design priority on all American warships. The Chinese? They don't have the experience and, thus, damage control is done after the installation of weapons.

[santosh10]

sir, India, Russia or even Pakistan can fight in sea china, how US will fight? is this this Afghan or Iraq or Syria-Libia, its worse than Vietnam experience of US. war fought on ground, and there is no resistance to China there.....

[Officer of Engineers]

China would do this, if it may happen then it would happen. Taiwan has fate to be part of China, sooner or later.
USA will continue weaken and stronger China will finally take over Taiwan

Please provide the evidence that the military gap between China and the US is getting smaller, ie US continues to weaken and China getting stronger. There are 10 pages of data in this very thread that states otherwise.

[santosh10]

China would do this, if it may happen then it would happen. Taiwan has fate to be part of China, sooner or later.
USA will continue weaken and stronger China will finally take over Taiwan

[Officer of Engineers]

Train as you fight. Fight as you train.

Thus far, there is zero indications that the Americans expect Japan or South Korea to put full stop in their defence efforts to protect Taiwan.

[Dazed]

If the ROK and Japan sit out the conflict. Does that mean that no US assets, US bases and US personal from those countries be used by the US in the conflict? I am thinking October 1973, except for Portugal no NATO country allowed a transport or support tanker to operate from their soil destined for Israel. Is Guam going to be the US closest airfield?

When the PRC held their exercises in August 2022 flying into China was not a direct line proposition. If the shooting starts the airspace over Taiwan, for transport category aircraft is going to be a very hazardous. I don't think any civil aviation is going to be flying to China. While there is CRAF they are going to be crewed by civilians somewhere along the line. Asking a civilian flight crew to go into harms way in contested airspace maybe asking too much?

Does the PRC only have to execute a selective naval blockade and a selective no fly area to cut off Taiwan? I know the PRC will be cutting itself off as well in any conflict. The Belt and Road wouldn't make up for the loss off air and shipping.

[Officer of Engineers]

kill the invasion fleet/ROROs first, then transition to blinding.

That is fighting the exact war China wants. Our planes will fight their planes in the sky while their home bases are safe while our carriers are not. I don't even want them to have the ability to find our carriers. As soon as that fleet sails east, they should be blinded right off the bat so they don't know where the hits are coming from. I don't even want them to be able to co-ordinate air strike groups

[astralis]

Aside from assuming AShBMs would ever work without a test, attacks on ML China is out of bounds - on what freaking planet? This resulted in 2 carriers lost and at least 290 aircrafts. In other words, fight the kind of war China wants to fight. Well, how about fighting our kind of war instead. Kill the Chinese C4ISR.

kill the invasion fleet/ROROs first, then transition to blinding.

in fact, the PLAN will probably push out first to quasi-blockade Taiwan and act as a meat shield so that USAF/USN are delayed from intervention. so after initial invasion is knocked back, the USN/USAF would need to take out the PLAN, then finally be in a position to hit mainland to wipe air defense/C4ISR.

Taiwan and Japan would probably be in a better position to hit PRC C4ISR nodes via their own long-range strike, but god knows there's a shit ton of targets.

[Officer of Engineers]

CSIS wargame this out and I cannot believe a USMCR Colonel wrote this crock

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazona...hFolxC_gZQuSOQ

Aside from assuming AShBMs would ever work without a test, attacks on ML China is out of bounds - on what freaking planet? This resulted in 2 carriers lost and at least 290 aircrafts. In other words, fight the kind of war China wants to fight. Well, how about fighting our kind of war instead. Kill the Chinese C4ISR.

[Officer of Engineers]

Am I the only one left on the planet who refused to believe that AShBM can hit squat without a freaking test?