China invades Taiwan

[zraver]

I'm hoping we can break some new ground here because this topic has been popping up on this board since 2005 and generally concludes with its too difficult for China. And the people at Hoover recently agreed

The technological ground is shifting under Taiwan's feet. The RoC let or has been forced to let its military stagnate. They have no navy or air force to speak of. I am not sure how many TKIII systems are deployed to back up older SAM/ADA systems, she has no modern armor or artillery. Her biggest defensive asset has been she was the worlds go to for semiconductors and so everyone had a vested interest in not interrupting that flow of goods. Covid has apparently started a race to move away from Foxcon domination which will in a few years remove the Great Silicon Wall protecting the Island. Once that is gone, the last defensive ring is how much are China and Japan on the outs? If China can be sure that the US and Japan won't jump in then Taiwan is fully isolated. I mention Japan because the JMSDF is the only navy in the region that is a peer competitor to the PLAN. a US/Japan alliance is the only one that currently overmatches the PLAN. Keeping Japan out of any war is critical to being able to concentrate the PRC's naval and air forces. Japan and Taiwan both know this and have been pursuing closer ties. Japan may even become a source of military hardware in the future now that Japan can export weapons (speculation on my part). A defensive alliance even informally between Taiwan and Japan may actually be a way to force the US to jump in. We will defend Japan and our bases there.

By herself Taiwan is in trouble. System for system the mainland Chinese have the edge, and the numbers advantage and the gap for both is growing wider. Once the F-16V's start delivery the gap won't be widening as fast, but the PRC is deploying 5th gen aircraft and AI systems that are in a different league from 4.5 gen aircraft. PLA/PLAAF/PLAN units still have logistics problems, morale problems, organizational and doctrine problems but those will smoothout over time as they gain experience and incorporate AI. If war came today, the PRC would quickly own the skies over Taiwan and control the seas around it. They may not be able to sustain a landing, but the RoC could not break a Mainland Chinese blockade or force a peace. Taiwan has no way at striking back at the PRC in any meaningful way. Taiwan's only hope of a forced peace on terms favorable to the RoC is outside (US) intervention.

[Double Edge]

That's what I was wondering in my OP when I said it would be a gamble by the Chinese. Is it worth the gamble to find out if the US will intervene?

As zraver said, it would have to be a quick victory by the Chinese before any type of economic backlash or military support by the US could be mobilized. But is a quick victory even possible? As the Colonel added, there is relative consensus that Taiwan could fight off initial Chinese invasion forces. Could they hold on long enough for US help to arrive?

Is the PLAN big enough to effectively blockade the island and Taiwan strait?

The question no one wants to contemplate is whether the US is prepared to allow Taiwan to fall ? Is there a plan B. Or do we all just roll over and accept the new reality.

US credibility in the region will take a big hit. But the basic facts will remain as is. There are powers that can resist and will have to do so more thereafter.

The Taiwanese to date have never conducted any public awareness drills for a China invasion scenario. Either they believe it will never happen or if it does the US will intervene at some point.

They don't exercise with any other neighbour. Just with the US and its done in a discrete manner.

Their training suggests they will have to defend on their own for at least a couple of months.

If the Taiwanese believe they are alone they will put up a better fight and prevent a bigger conflagration. Which all would prefer to avoid.

Does anyone want to gander what US public opinion would be if the Chinese invades Taiwan? Would the public even want to confront the Chinese in defense of Taiwan?

A good question that to date is up in the air. There has to be a better public appreciation of what will come after Taiwan falls.

How well can US leaders present the case. I would not put much stock in US public's desire to confront the CCP barring other belligerent actions by China.

Here Mike Pilsbury's answer was almost flippant. Can the US offer Taiwan more than reunification with their own people ?

No! the US cannot. US can only offer an American standard of living (!)

What happened in the 50s during the Taiwan straits crisis ? US sent a couple of carriers. There were threats to China from Ike. Taiwanese managed to hold out.

The backdrop was the cold war and 'Red' China had to be stopped. That fear isn't quite so palpable in the west these days is it. But it is in Asia.

I'm hoping we can break some new ground here because this topic has been popping up on this board since 2005 and generally concludes with its too difficult for China. And the people at Hoover recently agreed

[Officer of Engineers]

You do understand that it would take at least 10 years for China to do try #2.

[statquo]

I think this is the right assumption to take. There is nothing out there that says the US will automatically intervene in this particular situation. Just a whole load of rhetoric.

Mike Pilsbury was not certain and neither were the folks at Hoover. So It is not correct to assume that the US will intervene in this situation.

At least not for 2-3 months. The Taiwanese will have to tough it out that long. After that is up for debate.

There is a scenario where the US will have to intervene and that is if Japan acts in self defense.

Otherwise the US stays put.

This strategic ambiguity. Will they, won't they...by design preserves stability until China calls the bluff.

That's what I was wondering in my OP when I said it would be a gamble by the Chinese. Is it worth the gamble to find out if the US will intervene?

As zraver said, it would have to be a quick victory by the Chinese before any type of economic backlash or military support by the US could be mobilized. But is a quick victory even possible? As the Colonel added, there is relative consensus that Taiwan could fight off initial Chinese invasion forces. Could they hold on long enough for US help to arrive?

Is the PLAN big enough to effectively blockade the island and Taiwan strait?

Does anyone want to gander what US public opinion would be if the Chinese invades Taiwan? Would the public even want to confront the Chinese in defense of Taiwan?

[Double Edge]

Assuming no US interference, the consensus is that there is no possible way for China to win the first invasion of Taiwan. The best possible scenario is 3 beachheads of 10,000 Chinese troops each, each being pushed by back into the sea by 100,000 Taiwanese troops for each bridgehead.

It's the 2nd and 3rd invasions of Taiwan that is the headaches and heartaches. China can rebuild their invasion forces. Taiwan would be spent.

I think this is the right assumption to take. There is nothing out there that says the US will automatically intervene in this particular situation. Just a whole load of rhetoric.

Mike Pilsbury was not certain and neither were the folks at Hoover. So It is not correct to assume that the US will intervene in this situation.

At least not for 2-3 months. The Taiwanese will have to tough it out that long. After that is up for debate.

There is a scenario where the US will have to intervene and that is if Japan acts in self defense.

Otherwise the US stays put.

This strategic ambiguity. Will they, won't they...by design preserves stability until China calls the bluff.

[zraver]

That's what makes Evergrande so bad domestically in China. Realestate is how most Chinese invested. It's gonna hit the seniors hard, but will ripple down. Most Chinese couples are expecting to inherit up to 6 properties in what was expected to be one of the largest wealth transfers in history. If real estate craters a lot of dreams are going to be dashed.

As for airtime, I'd be willing to be it's getting play. Distractions are only good if they distract

[Monash]

Software advances may make their catching up easier.

I think the number of aircraft in Taiwan ADIZ is a deliberately attempt by Xi to distract away from high energy prices, shuttered plants and the impending collapse of Evergrande.

I guess the key question is how much 'airtime' the current sorties into Taiwanese airspace and other related military activities is getting domestically. That's generally a good barometer of what the Chinese Government does and does not want the public discussing.

For the rest? China has reached its long expected demographic 'flip' point point. Making this even worse is the fact that combined with this it also no national aged care pension or health care systems in place meaning an entire generation of aging Chinese will only have their own savings and that of their children to rely on. And as you mentioned on top of that a massive corporate bad debt bubble. And while the US and most western countries also have large sovereign debt issues China's has massive domestic debt problems both corporate and local government. Most of which is owned locally.

So the problem is that that barring an almost indefinite run of good luck XI and whoever succeeds him looks like being stuck in 'distraction mode' more or less indefinitely (and distraction only has a limited shelf life as a political tactic once the ^&#* really hits the fan). So unfortunately for the world it looks like times have just become 'interesting'.

[zraver]

Software advances may make their catching up easier.

I think the number of aircraft in Taiwan ADIZ is a deliberately attempt by Xi to distract away from high energy prices, shuttered plants and the impending collapse of Evergrande.

[Officer of Engineers]

China may also go for a bombardment and blockade strategy. Wreck everything worth wrecking and impose a blockade.

If so, they've got a long way to go. We ran 2000 sorties a day during the Kuwait War, 400 during the Kosovo War, and 1000+ during the Iraq War. I've seen nothing, not even during their exercises, that suggests that they can manage that kind of battlespace. The best they did was 100 planes and that included transports. Put 500 planes into the air, and at least a third will have to land because they ran out of fuel before they can organize themselves into a strike package.

[zraver]

Still lacking the logistics tail to support an invasion. After siezing initial bridgeheads (and that's iffy at this moment considering Taiwan has plans to sink frieghters in the lines of approach), China has enough lift to land a division per day or to re-supply a corps per day but not both. Still, yuou're talking only 3 beaches that can support a landing and you can be sure that they will be mined. There are already bunkers up the ying-yang. And the Chinese can only land 30,000 troops on the first day. In the mean time, the RoCA can throw 270,000 men the first day and if having time to call up reserves, 500,000. Numbers ain't there.

I don't disagree. But if a real independence movement gains traction the PRC is not going to sit idly by. Given the technological overmatch is growing, China may think with enough aircraft she can duplicate American performance in Iraq in during Desert Storm or OIF. Or at least have enough overmatch to make it an even up contest.

China may also go for a bombardment and blockade strategy. Wreck everything worth wrecking and impose a blockade. Though I only see that if for some reason the RoC starts racking up significant numbers of meaningful recognitions.

[Officer of Engineers]

Theoretically, China has the combat power to do it.

Still lacking the logistics tail to support an invasion. After siezing initial bridgeheads (and that's iffy at this moment considering Taiwan has plans to sink frieghters in the lines of approach), China has enough lift to land a division per day or to re-supply a corps per day but not both. Still, yuou're talking only 3 beaches that can support a landing and you can be sure that they will be mined. There are already bunkers up the ying-yang. And the Chinese can only land 30,000 troops on the first day. In the mean time, the RoCA can throw 270,000 men the first day and if having time to call up reserves, 500,000. Numbers ain't there.

The Taiwanese Kracken is still their submarines. They could conceivably be sacraficed to sink the logistics fleet.

Still, China could rebuild her invasion force several times over. Taiwan's invasion defence is a one-time event.

[zraver]

Assuming this doesn’t happen next week — months of build-up and an effort to get Taiwan to surrender without a fight — there is a lot of time to both prepare a military response and to gather a Coalition of theConcerned to pledge a boycott of Chinese goods, tourism (two-way), and capital transactions.

It would be the stuff of dissertations to figure out if the economic impact would be fast enough, and thorough enough, to deter the invasion.

China has been trying to become the indispensable nation of production to forestall that very effort...

The conflict if it occurs is likely to be rather quicker. Some event: an ADIZ confrontation, a recession, an incident etc will stoke nationalist flames in Taiwan. A politician will say it's time for RoC to be a separate state from the PRC. The PRC will saber rattle but Taiwan won't back down. Unlike past such incidents now China might think she can enforce her will. She will try to impose her will instead of letting tensions die back down and start a rapid of escalation.

Theoretically, China has the combat power to do it. She has the missiles, ships and aircraft the equal of anything Taiwan has but much more numerous. Taiwan's only real hope if war does come is the US deciding that defending Taiwan is worth the risk and cost to the international order.

If the US decides to fight it's aircraft and subs first.Well both sides will sanction each other first, then subs and planes.

[DOR]

Assuming this doesn’t happen next week — months of build-up and an effort to get Taiwan to surrender without a fight — there is a lot of time to both prepare a military response and to gather a Coalition of theConcerned to pledge a boycott of Chinese goods, tourism (two-way), and capital transactions.

It would be the stuff of dissertations to figure out if the economic impact would be fast enough, and thorough enough, to deter the invasion.

[Officer of Engineers]

Assuming no US interference, the consensus is that there is no possible way for China to win the first invasion of Taiwan. The best possible scenario is 3 beachheads of 10,000 Chinese troops each, each being pushed by back into the sea by 100,000 Taiwanese troops for each bridgehead.

It's the 2nd and 3rd invasions of Taiwan that is the headaches and heartaches. China can rebuild their invasion forces. Taiwan would be spent.

[zraver]

B-52's using alcm's wrecking Chinese beachheads. B--2's hitting Hainan Island and mainland Chinese airfield s. US SSN's going after PLAN ships. Carriers and marines will have to wait. Either Guam is gonna get smacked hard or we won't have a let's fight China sized force ready to go.

China will do everything it can to keep Japan, RoK and India side lined. DPRK and Pakistan will saber rattle. China may even try to get Iran and Russia to do the same. A ton of countries that depend on Chinese manufacturing or shipping will be screaming for peace at any cost. The UN will blame the US. The EU and NATO will sit it out. Global Financial and energy markets will collapse. So will trade if the war drags on and/or mercies can't sail or get sunk if they do.

The risk if pollution and potentially leaky reactors from dunked warships will see the global environmental movement go nuclear in their race.

Time is China's big enemy. If the US decides to fight, China has to win quick before the USN can surge a big enough fleet to dominate the Taiwan straits. Endless round the clock air strikes from sub and sir launch cruise missiles will degrade China's defensive firepower over time.