China invades Taiwan

[Officer of Engineers]

The problem with this scenario is that the Chinese surrenders all initiatives to the Americans. The Americans can decide how, when, and if they will move. The Chinese can only wait for that decision. Not a good move.

[Monash]

Yes, from the perspective of the Chinese any scenario involving a selective blockade equates to them being 'a little bit pregnant' i.e. it has to be one or the other. Either China imposes a total air and sea blockade on Taiwan and follows up with an invasion asap in the hopes of achieving their war aims before the US and it's Pacific allies can react or they don't do anything at all. Any half way measures just gives the US time to prepare and initiate action on their own terms, at a time and place and in a manner of their choosing. And that would be a disaster for China, same as it would for anyone else engaged in a war.

[Dazed]

Yes, from the perspective of the Chinese any scenario involving a selective blockade equates to them being 'a little bit pregnant' i.e. it has to be one or the other.

The US blockade of Cuba was selective. Taiwan is a third the size of Cuba. That might still be to large for China to seal off all incoming traffic. So partial blockade.

And that would be a disaster for China, same as it would for anyone else engaged in a war.

While the US experienced malaise, economic stagnation but continued along after Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. China might very well survive a botched war with Taiwan. US will still trade with China.

[Officer of Engineers]

The US blockade of Cuba was selective.

The blockade was never capable of removing Soviet nukes already in Cuba. The blockade brought about a political solution, not a military one. On the Taiwan issue, the military solution is the only one that gives Beijing what it wants, unification.

While the US experienced malaise, economic stagnation but continued along after Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. China might very well survive a botched war with Taiwan. US will still trade with China.

Doesn't mean we won't goto war with China. At the very least, fight a proxy war against China.

[santosh10]

Taiwan foreign minister warns of conflict with China in 2027

Comments indicate extent to which Taiwan is trying to bolster western support before possible invasion

Taiwan’s foreign minister has said he is preparing for the possibility of a conflict with China in 2027.

Speaking on LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr, Joseph Wu said: “We are taking the Chinese military threat very seriously … I think 2027 is the year that we need to be serious about.”

US intelligence believes that Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has ordered the country’s military to be ready by 2027 to annex Taiwan. China regards Taiwan, a democratic and self-governing island, as a renegade province that must be reunited with the mainland. Since he came to power in 2012, Xi has stressed that the Taiwan issue “cannot be passed on from generation to generation”.

On Friday, China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, said both sides of the Taiwan strait belonged to China, and that “those who play with fire on Taiwan will eventually get themselves burned”.

Some US officials believe a conflict may come sooner. In January, Gen Mike Minihan, a former deputy commander for US Indo-Pacific command, said his “gut” told him to expect a conflict in 2025.

On Tuesday, Adm John Aquilino, the head of US Indo-Pacific command, told the armed services committee in Congress that “everybody is guessing” when it comes to predicting timelines for a conflict.

Yun Sun, the director of the China programme at the Stimson Center, a US thinktank, said: “Military capabilities are the necessary but not sufficient condition for China to launch an attack. Military readiness does not suggest that China will take the move.”

Sun noted that Chinese authorities had never publicly set a 2027 target. She said: “I don’t think Xi is planning to invade Taiwan in 2027, unless Taiwan declared independence by that time.”

Nonetheless, Wu’s comments on Thursday indicate the extent to which Taiwan is trying to bolster support from the west ahead of a possible invasion. In the interview with Marr, Wu emphasised the risks to the UK posed by a conflict, saying that “even though the UK is looking at China as an economic opportunity in the long run”, an attack on Taiwan would affect the UK “in a very serious manner”.

“Therefore we need to look at a comprehensive way in for the UK, Taiwan and other countries to come together”.

In particular, Wu stressed the extent to which the UK – and the rest of the world – is dependent on the semiconductors produced in Taiwan, which makes more than 90% of the most advanced computer chips. “If there’s any disruption to the supply chain or to the shipping lanes, I think it’s going to have a serious impact upon the rest of the world,” Wu said.

In an interview with the Guardian on Tuesday, the UK’s foreign minister, James Cleverly, said the UK must not “just pull the shutters down” on its relationship with China. But lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic are becoming increasingly concerned about the threat China poses to regional and global security.

Wu drew an analogy between China and Russia, saying the world had failed to take Russia’s aggressive postures seriously in the past. He said: “We did not stop Russia from taking over Crimea. And the Russians were emboldened to go ahead and initiate a war against Ukraine.

“We did not stop China from imposing national security law in Hong Kong. And people were asking: is Taiwan going to be next? Now Taiwan is feeling all this pressure.”

[Dazed]

How China Hides Trillions From America

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54-YmBGMSyY

Tells how China is protects its currency from sanctions, rise in value, and crashing. Other countries also hide reserves.

[DOR]

How China Hides Trillions From America

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54-YmBGMSyY

Tells how China is protects its currency from sanctions, rise in value, and crashing. Other countries also hide reserves.

So, it turns out the big scare of the past few years -- that China's debt is unsustainable, and the economy implodes -- is just fake news, and actually the country is far, far richer than anyone imagined.
Xi Jinping approves of this idea!

[Dazed]

So, it turns out the big scare of the past few years -- that China's debt is unsustainable, and the economy implodes -- is just fake news, and actually the country is far, far richer than anyone imagined.
Xi Jinping approves of this idea!

China has been around for 3500 years. I don't think they will implode. In that 3500 years some of the deadliest wars in history have been Chinese Civil Wars. Yet China still abides.

I have been to China twice a month for the last 23 years, The progress is impressive. Much what is built is not maintained.

logistically what takes the rest of the world a hour and a half in China takes nearly three hours and more bodies,

In 2010 Li Keqiang a Chinese economist who served as the premier of the People's Republic of China from 2013 to 2023 is quoted as saying

" GDP figures are “man-made” and therefore unreliable"

.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...6B527D20101206

China is saying it is facing economic head winds. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/b...na-gdp-q2.html

While the US and China never truly decouple. Trade will continue between the two. China as a manufacturer is becoming expensive and prone to mercurial regulations. Great for Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.

[DOR]

China has been around for 3500 years. I don't think they will implode. In that 3500 years some of the deadliest wars in history have been Chinese Civil Wars. Yet China still abides.

I have been to China twice a month for the last 23 years, The progress is impressive. Much what is built is not maintained.

logistically what takes the rest of the world a hour and a half in China takes nearly three hours and more bodies,

In 2010 Li Keqiang a Chinese economist who served as the premier of the People's Republic of China from 2013 to 2023 is quoted as saying

" GDP figures are “man-made” and therefore unreliable"

.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...6B527D20101206

China is saying it is facing economic head winds. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/b...na-gdp-q2.html

While the US and China never truly decouple. Trade will continue between the two. China as a manufacturer is becoming expensive and prone to mercurial regulations. Great for Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.

You're preaching to the wrong choir; the source is that old reliable YouTube ...

[Officer of Engineers]

China has been around for 3500 years. I don't think they will implode. In that 3500 years some of the deadliest wars in history have been Chinese Civil Wars. Yet China still abides.

That is blatantly false. You can tell the cultural differences between each Chinese dynasty. The Han is completely different from the Yuan. In fact, the China we associate today began with a non-Chinese dynasty - the Mongol Yuan Dynasty. Modern Day China began in 1949 and we can tell the absolute difference in everyday Chinese lives between the Qing Dynasty and modern day China. For every Chinese internet user, they have to know the English alphabet in order to use the Chinese keyboard.

As much as DOR and I disagree on the methodology on approaching Chinese history, the result is the same. China is not immune to collapse. She collapsed before and she will collapse again.

[santosh10]

As Taiwan prepares for anti-invasion exercises, China sends dozens of warplanes toward the island

TAIPEI: China sent dozens of warplanes, including fighter jets and bombers, toward Taiwan, the island's defence ministry said Saturday, marking a forceful display days before the democracy plans to hold military exercises aimed at defending itself against a possible invasion.

Taiwan is due to hold its annual Han Kuang exercise next week, during which its military will hold combat readiness drills for preventing an invasion. It will also conduct the annual Wan'an exercises aimed at preparing civilians for natural disasters and practicing evacuations in case of an air raid.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army sent 37 aircraft and seven navy vessels around Taiwan between 6 a.m. Friday and 6am Saturday, the ministry said in a statement.


Among them were J-10 and J-16 fighters and H-6 bombers, and 22 of the detected warplanes crossed the midline of the Taiwan Strait — an unofficial boundary that had been considered a buffer between the island and mainland — or entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone near its southern part, the statement said.
Taiwan and China split in 1949 following a civil war that ended with the ruling Communist Party in control of the mainland. The island has never been part of the People's Republic of China, but Beijing says it must unite with the mainland.

in Taiwan by stepping up the number of military planes sent toward the island.
China held huge military drills in response to former United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August. It fired missiles over the island in a significant escalation that disrupted trade lanes in the Taiwan Strait and forced airplanes to reroute flights.
In April, the PLA also held large-scale combat readiness drills in the air and sea around the island in response to Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen meeting with current US house speaker Kevin McCarthy.
As Taiwan prepares for anti-invasion exercises, China sends dozens of warplanes toward the island - Times of India (indiatimes.com)

[Dazed]

That is blatantly false. You can tell the cultural differences between each Chinese dynasty. The Han is completely different from the Yuan. In fact, the China we associate today began with a non-Chinese dynasty - the Mongol Yuan Dynasty. Modern Day China began in 1949 and we can tell the absolute difference in everyday Chinese lives between the Qing Dynasty and modern day China. For every Chinese internet user, they have to know the English alphabet in order to use the Chinese keyboard.

As much as DOR and I disagree on the methodology on approaching Chinese history, the result is the same. China is not immune to collapse. She collapsed before and she will collapse again.

I don't dispute nor did I suggest otherwise. All that you mentioned is true and yet there is a sovereign nation named China. That was my point,

I don't think China will be ruled by the CCP forever. How do you contain a bank run of a billion people? China's borders have changed. Manchuria, Tibet, the American Concession. There is a good chance China Paradox may replace the term Argentine Paradox. I think there will be a country with a lot of people called China despite collapse

[Bigfella]

For anyone interested this is a 50 minute interview with Mark Cancian, who was one of those involved in wargaming invasion scenarios in 2022, leading to the report released about a year ago. No new information, but he does explain their reasoning & assumptions that led to predicting a likely Chinese defeat.

[statquo]

Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwan

- Council of Foreign Relations

[DOR]

The latest issue of China Leadership Monitor


Digest: Spring 2024 Issue 79

Welcome to the China Leadership Monitor's Spring 2024 Digest, which provides article summaries for those who have not yet explored our most recent issue.

• Joel Wuthnow in Getting to World Class: Can China’s Military Persevere?
• Zongyuan Zoe Liu in China’s Attempts to Reduce Its Strategic Vulnerabilities to Financial Sanctions
• Syaru Shirley Lin, Caroline Fried, and Siwei Huang in What Taiwan’s 2024 Election Means for China, the US, and the Future of Taiwan
• Minxin Pei in Piercing the Veil of Secrecy: The Surveillance Role of China’s MSS and MPS
• Guoguang Wu in Xi Jinping’s Self-Defeating Governance: Policy Implications and Power Politics with the Rise of Military-Industrial Leaders

https://www.prcleader.org/post/diges...-2024-issue-79