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  • statquo
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post

    It's a very bad article written by someone without logistical, doctrinal, operational, and military organizational knowledge. Worst, it's written by some without specific China and Chinese military knowledge. I could pick this article apart but I will have to goto length the difference between brigade and regiment. To the layperson, they are the one and the same but to a military man, the expectations and performances between the two are drastically different even though on the surface, they looked the same - 3 battalions.

    But I will say don't rely on this article. It has zero bearing on any military outcome between the RoCA and the China Army.
    I never intended to rely on it for any speculative military outcomes. I simply bolded the points about the potential civilian transport fleet at Chinese disposal in relation to our discussion about the logistics of sea lifting Chinese troops to Taiwan. Are those numbers not accurate to your knowledge?

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  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    It's not a fair fight, the CAF out ranges, out numbers and out guns the RoCAF. Most of the RoCAF fighters are old which means they won't even get close to optimal performance out of them without risking the wings falling off. Taiwan has a limited supply of Patriot and TKIII missiles for missile defense and so is unlikely to try and hit fighters with them.

    However bad the J20 is, to 1980's era day fighter radar it is LO.
    Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
    The Chinese do not need J-20's to fight Taiwan's air force. Their most capable jets at this point are their upgraded F-16V's of which they have only 42 I believe. Their Mirage-2000-5EIs are decent but they only have 46 of those. Plus there was news recently that they were having reliability and maintenance issues with them. So you have to wonder how many are in flying condition. The non-upgraded F-16's aren't of much use against what the PLAAF can throw against them. The PLAAF's main concern will be how to degrade the SAM net rather than the ROCAF.
    People, it's cyclic. This is nothing new. Before the Taiwanese got the F-16s, ML China gathered enough MiG-21s/J7s to seriously overwhelm the RoCAF. Enter George Bush Sr and the sale of F-16s. While the Taiwan Relations Act may not obligate the USN to sail to Taiwan's rescue, it does obligate the US to get rich off of arms sales to Taiwan. I'm not too concern with current balance tip towards China. Washington will eventually right that balance.

    Taiwanese military modernization is decided more in the White House than in Taipei. Taiwanese Defence Budget be damned. If the White House decided to sell Taiwan something, Taipei will find the money somewhere. In fact, I cannot think of one American weapons sale that Taiwan turned down,

    Originally posted by statquo View Post
    In regards to logistics, here's a recent article on it.
    It's a very bad article written by someone without logistical, doctrinal, operational, and military organizational knowledge. Worst, it's written by some without specific China and Chinese military knowledge. I could pick this article apart but I will have to goto length the difference between brigade and regiment. To the layperson, they are the one and the same but to a military man, the expectations and performances between the two are drastically different even though on the surface, they looked the same - 3 battalions.

    But I will say don't rely on this article. It has zero bearing on any military outcome between the RoCA and the China Army.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 06 Oct 21,, 02:13.

    Leave a comment:


  • zraver
    replied
    There are only so many possible outcomes to a war between RoC/PRC
    PRC loss
    Neither side wins
    Both sides win
    RoC loss

    IF the PRC choose war victory for the PRC is any out come that sees the PRC maintain or gain political legitimacy over Formosa. So even a negotiated ceasefire and return to status quo ante bellum is a PRC.

    Both sides lose if RoC declares independence but the PRC returns to a 1950's level of cross strait engagement and conflict preventing the RoC from recovering or developing. I think this would be the most likely and worst outcome. It's what happens if the PRC wins the sea and skies but not the land.

    Both sides win big if there is a negotiated settlement and a formal end to the Chinese Civil War. They both win small if there is a formal end to fighting and some issues are resolved but there is no formal end to the Chinese Civil War.

    The RoC loses if and/or her political freedom and economic viability are lost.

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  • DOR
    replied
    I wonder what the total number of PLA staff officers with combat experience might be …?
    Double digits?

    Leave a comment:


  • Firestorm
    replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    You degrade the same by lifting missiles on to Taiwan. When high value targets get hit because Taiwan is out of Patriot and TKIII missiles you bring in your conventional SEAD assets guided in by AWACs that can now get close enough to provide real time c3 over Taiwan itself.
    And once they have complete air dominance do they even need a ground invasion? How long can Taiwan survive without control of their own airspace with any and all critical infrastructure under threat of air strikes? Their ground troops who are supposed to fight the PLA on the beaches will be in trouble even before any PLAN landing craft comes close. The only thing that is really keeping Taiwan safe is the possibility of US intervention. Otherwise they are pretty much screwed one way or the other.

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  • zraver
    replied
    You degrade the same by lifting missiles on to Taiwan. When high value targets get hit because Taiwan is out of Patriot and TKIII missiles you bring in your conventional SEAD assets guided in by AWACs that can now get close enough to provide real time c3 over Taiwan itself.

    Leave a comment:


  • Firestorm
    replied
    The Chinese do not need J-20's to fight Taiwan's air force. Their most capable jets at this point are their upgraded F-16V's of which they have only 42 I believe. Their Mirage-2000-5EIs are decent but they only have 46 of those. Plus there was news recently that they were having reliability and maintenance issues with them. So you have to wonder how many are in flying condition. The non-upgraded F-16's aren't of much use against what the PLAAF can throw against them. The PLAAF's main concern will be how to degrade the SAM net rather than the ROCAF.

    Leave a comment:


  • statquo
    replied
    To Invade Taiwan, The Chinese Navy Could Mobilize The World’s Biggest Transport Fleet

    The Chinese navy now has access to 1.5 million tons of shipping that could carry an assault force across the Taiwan Strait and initiate an invasion of Taiwan.

    For those of you keeping score at home, that’s a transport fleet equal in displacement to U.S. Military Sealift Command’s own quasi-civilian fleet.

    In other words, a lot of ships.

    To have any chance of conquering Taiwan, China might need to transport as many as 2 million troops across the rough 100 miles of the Taiwan Strait and land them under fire at the island’s 14 potential invasion beaches or 10 major ports.

    That’s a lot of people—far, far more than the People’s Liberation Army Navy can haul in its 11 new amphibious ships, together displacing around 370,000 tons. To transport the bulk of the invasion force, Beijing almost certainly would take up into naval service thousands of civilian ships.

    The National Defense Transportation Law of 2017 mandates that all of China’s transport infrastructure, including ships, be available for military use. Naval engineers have begun modifying key vessels to make them better assault ships—in particular adding heavy-duty ramps that can support the weight of armored vehicles.

    The PLAN is including civilian vessels in more war games in order to get civilian mariners, and the troops they’d transport, comfortable with working together.

    During one four-day exercise in late July, the crew of the 24,000-ton car ferry Bohai Pearl rehearsed loading and unloading vehicles from the 73rd Army Group while under simulated enemy fire. Bohai Pearl can carry as many as 300 vehicles, the state-owned Global Times newspaper reported.

    Since June, no fewer than 10 People’s Liberation Army brigades have conducted maritime transportation exercises, noted Rod Lee, an analyst with the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute.

    To understand just how big a Chinese invasion force might be if the PLAN were to fully exploit the 2017 law and take up every available useful vessel, Thomas Shugart, an analyst with the Center for a New American Security in Washington, D.C., crunched the numbers.

    Shugart tallied roll-on/roll-off ferries that together displace 750,000 tons. Vehicle-carriers add another 425,000 tons. “The combination of this civilian roll-on/roll-off shipping—more than 1.1 million tons of potential vehicle and troop transport ships—is more than three times the tonnage of the Chinese navy’s entire fleet of amphibious assault ships,” Shugart explained.

    Hong Kong RO/ROs would add another 370,000 tons, for a grant total of 1.5 million tons of invasion-ready shipping.

    By comparison, the U.S. Navy’s roughly 30 large amphibious ships together displace 840,000 tons, Shugart explained. And U.S. Military Sealift Command’s 100 or so active transport vessels, crewed by non-military mariners, displace 1.5 million tons.


    In short, the U.S. Navy’s amphib flotilla is more than twice as capacious as the PLAN’s own flotilla is. But the civilian transport fleet at Beijing’s disposal is as big as the quasi-civilian transport fleet at Washington’s disposal.

    That comparison itself has no direct bearing on the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The United States, after all, isn’t planning its own amphibious assault on a heavily armed near neighbor.

    But the comparison does illuminate the substantial capabilities and capacity the Chinese Communist Party can draw on if it ever makes good on its threat to “unify” Taiwan with the mainland.

    China isn’t just talking about attacking Taiwan. It’s gathering ships.
    In regards to logistics, here's a recent article on it.

    Leave a comment:


  • zraver
    replied
    It's not a fair fight, the CAF out ranges, out numbers and out guns the RoCAF. Most of the RoCAF fighters are old which means they won't even get close to optimal performance out of them without risking the wings falling off. Taiwan has a limited supply of Patriot and TKIII missiles for missile defense and so is unlikely to try and hit fighters with them.

    However bad the J20 is, to 1980's era day fighter radar it is LO.

    Leave a comment:


  • zraver
    replied
    Sir, be that as it may, the RoCAF is rocking day fighters with limited radar or BVR capability.

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  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Sir, right now the ROCAF has 4th gen with some 4.5 on order. The PLAAF 5th planes are LO, more akin to a bad f35. Vs 4th gen day fighter aircraft the effect is the same though.
    I was talking about the PLAAF, aka the China Air Force (that's the new PRC nomaclature. It's no longer the PLA, PLAN, or the PLAAF but the China Army, the China Navy, and the China Air Force) although everybody else still uses the same old names, including the Chinese.

    The China Air Force still lacks the metalurgy to make it truly LO and their engines light up the infra red no matter which angle you look it from. It's a fake Rolex.

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  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    I'm hoping we can break some new ground here because this topic has been popping up on this board since 2005 and generally concludes with its too difficult for China. And the people at Hoover recently agreed
    What do you mean since 2005? It's been a topic since 1949 and even before then, Chiang Kei Shek was demanding Taiwan's return from Japan,

    The reason why nothing is new is because of the age old axiom. Amateurs think strategy and tactics. Professionals think logistics. I've been killing the Taiwan scenario each and everytime since 1973 with the same question. The same question I used today. What about the logistics?

    Answer that question first before anything else.

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  • zraver
    replied
    Sir, right now the ROCAF has 4th gen with some 4.5 on order. The PLAAF 5th planes are LO, more akin to a bad f35. Vs 4th gen day fighter aircraft the effect is the same though.

    Leave a comment:


  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    The more I think about it, the more I don't think a blockade will work. There's no way in hell the China Navy can blockade the Eastern side of Taiwan. Get too close to Taiwanese shores and they will be clobbered by Taiwanese defences. Too far away and shipping will slip through and God help you if you tried to intercept shipping intended for Japan.

    There are 4 Taiwanese submarines in service. A brand new one is coming on line with 7 more to follow.

    BTW, Jason, no one I've read believed China has 5th generation aircrafts. They're all 4.5 pretending to be 5th. They may look nice but the Chinese lacked the metalurgy and engine technology to make it all work.

    But let's assume that Japan and the US won't get involved. HOWEVER, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and every freaking SCS country surely would. No, they won't sail to Taiwan's rescue but they would take advantage of China's absence in the SCS. That's because China would have to throw everything she got at Taiwan. Every ship that can do blockade will do blockade and even then, there would be big time leakage.

    This essentially means China just handed some very nice sand castles to Vietnam. And Duarte will be demanding tribute while arresting Chinese fishing ships.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 05 Oct 21,, 20:38.

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  • statquo
    replied
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    You do understand that it would take at least 10 years for China to do try #2.
    No that’s why I asked lol

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