China invades Taiwan

[Firestorm]

You degrade the same by lifting missiles on to Taiwan. When high value targets get hit because Taiwan is out of Patriot and TKIII missiles you bring in your conventional SEAD assets guided in by AWACs that can now get close enough to provide real time c3 over Taiwan itself.

And once they have complete air dominance do they even need a ground invasion? How long can Taiwan survive without control of their own airspace with any and all critical infrastructure under threat of air strikes? Their ground troops who are supposed to fight the PLA on the beaches will be in trouble even before any PLAN landing craft comes close. The only thing that is really keeping Taiwan safe is the possibility of US intervention. Otherwise they are pretty much screwed one way or the other.

[zraver]

You degrade the same by lifting missiles on to Taiwan. When high value targets get hit because Taiwan is out of Patriot and TKIII missiles you bring in your conventional SEAD assets guided in by AWACs that can now get close enough to provide real time c3 over Taiwan itself.

[Firestorm]

The Chinese do not need J-20's to fight Taiwan's air force. Their most capable jets at this point are their upgraded F-16V's of which they have only 42 I believe. Their Mirage-2000-5EIs are decent but they only have 46 of those. Plus there was news recently that they were having reliability and maintenance issues with them. So you have to wonder how many are in flying condition. The non-upgraded F-16's aren't of much use against what the PLAAF can throw against them. The PLAAF's main concern will be how to degrade the SAM net rather than the ROCAF.

[statquo]

To Invade Taiwan, The Chinese Navy Could Mobilize The World’s Biggest Transport Fleet

The Chinese navy now has access to 1.5 million tons of shipping that could carry an assault force across the Taiwan Strait and initiate an invasion of Taiwan.

For those of you keeping score at home, that’s a transport fleet equal in displacement to U.S. Military Sealift Command’s own quasi-civilian fleet.

In other words, a lot of ships.

To have any chance of conquering Taiwan, China might need to transport as many as 2 million troops across the rough 100 miles of the Taiwan Strait and land them under fire at the island’s 14 potential invasion beaches or 10 major ports.

That’s a lot of people—far, far more than the People’s Liberation Army Navy can haul in its 11 new amphibious ships, together displacing around 370,000 tons. To transport the bulk of the invasion force, Beijing almost certainly would take up into naval service thousands of civilian ships.

The National Defense Transportation Law of 2017 mandates that all of China’s transport infrastructure, including ships, be available for military use. Naval engineers have begun modifying key vessels to make them better assault ships—in particular adding heavy-duty ramps that can support the weight of armored vehicles.

The PLAN is including civilian vessels in more war games in order to get civilian mariners, and the troops they’d transport, comfortable with working together.

During one four-day exercise in late July, the crew of the 24,000-ton car ferry Bohai Pearl rehearsed loading and unloading vehicles from the 73rd Army Group while under simulated enemy fire. Bohai Pearl can carry as many as 300 vehicles, the state-owned Global Times newspaper reported.

Since June, no fewer than 10 People’s Liberation Army brigades have conducted maritime transportation exercises, noted Rod Lee, an analyst with the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute.

To understand just how big a Chinese invasion force might be if the PLAN were to fully exploit the 2017 law and take up every available useful vessel, Thomas Shugart, an analyst with the Center for a New American Security in Washington, D.C., crunched the numbers.

Shugart tallied roll-on/roll-off ferries that together displace 750,000 tons. Vehicle-carriers add another 425,000 tons. “The combination of this civilian roll-on/roll-off shipping—more than 1.1 million tons of potential vehicle and troop transport ships—is more than three times the tonnage of the Chinese navy’s entire fleet of amphibious assault ships,” Shugart explained.

Hong Kong RO/ROs would add another 370,000 tons, for a grant total of 1.5 million tons of invasion-ready shipping.

By comparison, the U.S. Navy’s roughly 30 large amphibious ships together displace 840,000 tons, Shugart explained. And U.S. Military Sealift Command’s 100 or so active transport vessels, crewed by non-military mariners, displace 1.5 million tons.

In short, the U.S. Navy’s amphib flotilla is more than twice as capacious as the PLAN’s own flotilla is. But the civilian transport fleet at Beijing’s disposal is as big as the quasi-civilian transport fleet at Washington’s disposal.

That comparison itself has no direct bearing on the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The United States, after all, isn’t planning its own amphibious assault on a heavily armed near neighbor.

But the comparison does illuminate the substantial capabilities and capacity the Chinese Communist Party can draw on if it ever makes good on its threat to “unify” Taiwan with the mainland.

China isn’t just talking about attacking Taiwan. It’s gathering ships.

In regards to logistics, here's a recent article on it.

[zraver]

It's not a fair fight, the CAF out ranges, out numbers and out guns the RoCAF. Most of the RoCAF fighters are old which means they won't even get close to optimal performance out of them without risking the wings falling off. Taiwan has a limited supply of Patriot and TKIII missiles for missile defense and so is unlikely to try and hit fighters with them.

However bad the J20 is, to 1980's era day fighter radar it is LO.

[zraver]

Sir, be that as it may, the RoCAF is rocking day fighters with limited radar or BVR capability.

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, right now the ROCAF has 4th gen with some 4.5 on order. The PLAAF 5th planes are LO, more akin to a bad f35. Vs 4th gen day fighter aircraft the effect is the same though.

I was talking about the PLAAF, aka the China Air Force (that's the new PRC nomaclature. It's no longer the PLA, PLAN, or the PLAAF but the China Army, the China Navy, and the China Air Force) although everybody else still uses the same old names, including the Chinese.

The China Air Force still lacks the metalurgy to make it truly LO and their engines light up the infra red no matter which angle you look it from. It's a fake Rolex.

[Officer of Engineers]

I'm hoping we can break some new ground here because this topic has been popping up on this board since 2005 and generally concludes with its too difficult for China. And the people at Hoover recently agreed

What do you mean since 2005? It's been a topic since 1949 and even before then, Chiang Kei Shek was demanding Taiwan's return from Japan,

The reason why nothing is new is because of the age old axiom. Amateurs think strategy and tactics. Professionals think logistics. I've been killing the Taiwan scenario each and everytime since 1973 with the same question. The same question I used today. What about the logistics?

Answer that question first before anything else.

[zraver]

Sir, right now the ROCAF has 4th gen with some 4.5 on order. The PLAAF 5th planes are LO, more akin to a bad f35. Vs 4th gen day fighter aircraft the effect is the same though.

[Officer of Engineers]

The more I think about it, the more I don't think a blockade will work. There's no way in hell the China Navy can blockade the Eastern side of Taiwan. Get too close to Taiwanese shores and they will be clobbered by Taiwanese defences. Too far away and shipping will slip through and God help you if you tried to intercept shipping intended for Japan.

There are 4 Taiwanese submarines in service. A brand new one is coming on line with 7 more to follow.

BTW, Jason, no one I've read believed China has 5th generation aircrafts. They're all 4.5 pretending to be 5th. They may look nice but the Chinese lacked the metalurgy and engine technology to make it all work.

But let's assume that Japan and the US won't get involved. HOWEVER, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and every freaking SCS country surely would. No, they won't sail to Taiwan's rescue but they would take advantage of China's absence in the SCS. That's because China would have to throw everything she got at Taiwan. Every ship that can do blockade will do blockade and even then, there would be big time leakage.

This essentially means China just handed some very nice sand castles to Vietnam. And Duarte will be demanding tribute while arresting Chinese fishing ships.

[statquo]

You do understand that it would take at least 10 years for China to do try #2.

No that’s why I asked lol

[zraver]

I'm hoping we can break some new ground here because this topic has been popping up on this board since 2005 and generally concludes with its too difficult for China. And the people at Hoover recently agreed

The technological ground is shifting under Taiwan's feet. The RoC let or has been forced to let its military stagnate. They have no navy or air force to speak of. I am not sure how many TKIII systems are deployed to back up older SAM/ADA systems, she has no modern armor or artillery. Her biggest defensive asset has been she was the worlds go to for semiconductors and so everyone had a vested interest in not interrupting that flow of goods. Covid has apparently started a race to move away from Foxcon domination which will in a few years remove the Great Silicon Wall protecting the Island. Once that is gone, the last defensive ring is how much are China and Japan on the outs? If China can be sure that the US and Japan won't jump in then Taiwan is fully isolated. I mention Japan because the JMSDF is the only navy in the region that is a peer competitor to the PLAN. a US/Japan alliance is the only one that currently overmatches the PLAN. Keeping Japan out of any war is critical to being able to concentrate the PRC's naval and air forces. Japan and Taiwan both know this and have been pursuing closer ties. Japan may even become a source of military hardware in the future now that Japan can export weapons (speculation on my part). A defensive alliance even informally between Taiwan and Japan may actually be a way to force the US to jump in. We will defend Japan and our bases there.

By herself Taiwan is in trouble. System for system the mainland Chinese have the edge, and the numbers advantage and the gap for both is growing wider. Once the F-16V's start delivery the gap won't be widening as fast, but the PRC is deploying 5th gen aircraft and AI systems that are in a different league from 4.5 gen aircraft. PLA/PLAAF/PLAN units still have logistics problems, morale problems, organizational and doctrine problems but those will smoothout over time as they gain experience and incorporate AI. If war came today, the PRC would quickly own the skies over Taiwan and control the seas around it. They may not be able to sustain a landing, but the RoC could not break a Mainland Chinese blockade or force a peace. Taiwan has no way at striking back at the PRC in any meaningful way. Taiwan's only hope of a forced peace on terms favorable to the RoC is outside (US) intervention.

[Double Edge]

That's what I was wondering in my OP when I said it would be a gamble by the Chinese. Is it worth the gamble to find out if the US will intervene?

As zraver said, it would have to be a quick victory by the Chinese before any type of economic backlash or military support by the US could be mobilized. But is a quick victory even possible? As the Colonel added, there is relative consensus that Taiwan could fight off initial Chinese invasion forces. Could they hold on long enough for US help to arrive?

Is the PLAN big enough to effectively blockade the island and Taiwan strait?

The question no one wants to contemplate is whether the US is prepared to allow Taiwan to fall ? Is there a plan B. Or do we all just roll over and accept the new reality.

US credibility in the region will take a big hit. But the basic facts will remain as is. There are powers that can resist and will have to do so more thereafter.

The Taiwanese to date have never conducted any public awareness drills for a China invasion scenario. Either they believe it will never happen or if it does the US will intervene at some point.

They don't exercise with any other neighbour. Just with the US and its done in a discrete manner.

Their training suggests they will have to defend on their own for at least a couple of months.

If the Taiwanese believe they are alone they will put up a better fight and prevent a bigger conflagration. Which all would prefer to avoid.

Does anyone want to gander what US public opinion would be if the Chinese invades Taiwan? Would the public even want to confront the Chinese in defense of Taiwan?

A good question that to date is up in the air. There has to be a better public appreciation of what will come after Taiwan falls.

How well can US leaders present the case. I would not put much stock in US public's desire to confront the CCP barring other belligerent actions by China.

Here Mike Pilsbury's answer was almost flippant. Can the US offer Taiwan more than reunification with their own people ?

No! the US cannot. US can only offer an American standard of living (!)

What happened in the 50s during the Taiwan straits crisis ? US sent a couple of carriers. There were threats to China from Ike. Taiwanese managed to hold out.

The backdrop was the cold war and 'Red' China had to be stopped. That fear isn't quite so palpable in the west these days is it. But it is in Asia.

I'm hoping we can break some new ground here because this topic has been popping up on this board since 2005 and generally concludes with its too difficult for China. And the people at Hoover recently agreed

[Officer of Engineers]

You do understand that it would take at least 10 years for China to do try #2.

[statquo]

I think this is the right assumption to take. There is nothing out there that says the US will automatically intervene in this particular situation. Just a whole load of rhetoric.

Mike Pilsbury was not certain and neither were the folks at Hoover. So It is not correct to assume that the US will intervene in this situation.

At least not for 2-3 months. The Taiwanese will have to tough it out that long. After that is up for debate.

There is a scenario where the US will have to intervene and that is if Japan acts in self defense.

Otherwise the US stays put.

This strategic ambiguity. Will they, won't they...by design preserves stability until China calls the bluff.

That's what I was wondering in my OP when I said it would be a gamble by the Chinese. Is it worth the gamble to find out if the US will intervene?

As zraver said, it would have to be a quick victory by the Chinese before any type of economic backlash or military support by the US could be mobilized. But is a quick victory even possible? As the Colonel added, there is relative consensus that Taiwan could fight off initial Chinese invasion forces. Could they hold on long enough for US help to arrive?

Is the PLAN big enough to effectively blockade the island and Taiwan strait?

Does anyone want to gander what US public opinion would be if the Chinese invades Taiwan? Would the public even want to confront the Chinese in defense of Taiwan?