China invades Taiwan

[DOR]

China's closest airbase to Taiwan is probably Longtian (which they have been recently expanding btw along with some others). It is ~200km from Taipei. Less than that from Hsinchu. Even if most Chinese aircraft take off from other bases which are farther away the distances involved would not seem to require aerial refueling, especially near contested airspace. They will be sending Flankers and H-6K's not J-7's and J-8II's. The new H-6 versions might launch cruise missiles from well inside Fujian.

Good estimate, but the two Taiwan places are closer than you think: 218km to Hsinchu (from Fuzhou), 233km to Taipei.

[Officer of Engineers]

And what about all their missiles - ballistic and cruise?

2000 SSMs, ~650 ALCMs. Don't know about the naval component since they're CMC assets, ie may or may not be reserved for nuclear delivery.

Still, we did 2000 sorties per day during the Kuwait War and 900 cruise missile strikes on Baghdad the first day of the Iraq War and in both times, we still had to punch through the Republican Guard. The PRC simply do not have the munitions for 2000 air/missile strike packages per day for 30 days.

They have what 9 airbases? Even if they keep all their aircraft safe in hardened shelters the Chinese can still crater the runways with missile strikes

Quick drying cement. You want to know why we hit air bases over and over again? The first time is to damage the air base to render it inoperational. The subsequent times is to come back to kill the engineers repairing the airbase. A one time strike is not going to disable an airbase, especially if your CEP is 50 metres+.

Again, none of this is without risk and will not go perfectly. The PLAAF will lose aircraft for sure. But they have plenty to spare and I believe the PRC would be willing to take far more losses taking Taiwan than they might in other conflicts.

No airplane has ever taken or held ground. Even after all the damage we've done to the Iraqis during the Kuwait War and the Iraq War, we still had to punch through their front lines. The China AF will do far, far, far less damage to the RoCA (not the RoCAF) than we did to the Iraqis.

Another thing, the China AF doesn't have B-52s, they ain't going to do any carpet bombing which means a hell of a lot less damage to Taiwan. After the initial expenitutres, the China AF and the SRF would be reduced to annoyance hits designed to instill terror rather than counter-force strikes.

[Firestorm]

That's the other elephant in room. Even if you restrict yourself to Western Taiwan then. It would soon become apparent that the China Air Force would run out of bombs long before they run out of targets with a miniscue effect on the RoCA combat effectiveness. The China AF simply do not have the bombs to bomb the RoCA into surrender, let alone into destruction.

And what about all their missiles - ballistic and cruise? Are you counting them? Also, easy availability of PGM's of various types has reduced the number of munitions they will have to expend per target. Taiwan isn't a big place. They have what 9 airbases? Even if they keep all their aircraft safe in hardened shelters the Chinese can still crater the runways with missile strikes. Followed by SEAD missions to target the AD radars while the RoCAF crews are busy repairing the runways so their aircraft can take off. And then overwhelm the RoCAF with fighter sweeps after they have lost most of their SAM cover.

Again, none of this is without risk and will not go perfectly. The PLAAF will lose aircraft for sure. But they have plenty to spare and I believe the PRC would be willing to take far more losses taking Taiwan than they might in other conflicts.

[Officer of Engineers]

True but western Taiwan appears to be a lot more target rich especially if the Chinese are trying to break their will to keep fighting while waiting for US intervention. Lots of highly developed urban areas and juicy civilian infrastructure to attack there.

That's the other elephant in room. Even if you restrict yourself to Western Taiwan then. It would soon become apparent that the China Air Force would run out of bombs long before they run out of targets with a miniscue effect on the RoCA combat effectiveness. The China AF simply do not have the bombs to bomb the RoCA into surrender, let alone into destruction.

[Firestorm]

You do know there are vital targets on the Eastern side of Taiwan. You also have to allocate for ACM, AD evasion, and loiter times. In any case, RoCAF fighters can stay in the air a hell of a lot longer than China AF.

True but western Taiwan appears to be a lot more target rich especially if the Chinese are trying to break their will to keep fighting while waiting for US intervention. Lots of highly developed urban areas and juicy civilian infrastructure to attack there. Nor will air strikes be the opening move anyway. They will probably be preceded by cruise missile strikes, both ground and air launched targeting the AD assets and air bases. The Taiwanese will expend a considerable part of their SAM inventory shooting down CJ-10's before any PLAAF fighters even arrive. And while their AF will be in much better shape once all their existing F-16's are upgraded and the new ones arrive they are in deep doodoo if something happens right now. They bought a grand total of 200 AMRAAMs back in 2000 but the US didn't even let them test fire a single one till this year. And that was from one of the newly upgraded F-16V's. The older ones don't even appear to be BVR capable. Chinese Flankers clones armed with PL-12's will have them for breakfast. I am not saying it will be a complete cakewalk and the PLAAF will have losses for sure but they can replace those much more easily than the RoCAF. Unless the USN arrives quickly and in strength, it will be all over. There will be loud voices within Taiwan calling for reunification if the losses start mounting to unacceptable levels.

[zraver]

No, it is not. An AI is no replacement for institutional knowledge nor training. Again take the theortical 500 pane strike package. You have to launch air fuelers to keep those who took off first in the air so that they have enough fuel to go altogether. While an AI can calculate which plane can refuel first, it cannot calculate human fuck ups such as the lack of constant training to properly refuel. If one single plane took too long to refuel, it throws the AI's plans out the window. Never mind the fact that the Chinese have zero concepts of reducing the strike packages and target loads. You can't ask the AI to do something that the Chinese don't know how to do.

Of course, no one has yet to point out that the RoCAF would be throwing everything they've got at those air gas pumps.

Sir, I said it's not a substitute. It does however make catching up easier because every task that can be automated leaves more time and or more man hours to devote to training and building instatutional memory required for core competencies.

[Officer of Engineers]

You do know there are vital targets on the Eastern side of Taiwan. You also have to allocate for ACM, AD evasion, and loiter times. In any case, RoCAF fighters can stay in the air a hell of a lot longer than China AF.

From Package Q Strike - Wikipedia

The Package Q Airstrike was the largest airstrike of the Persian Gulf War and the largest strike of F-16s in military history. Many aircraft including the F-117 were used to attack targets in Baghdad, which was the most heavily defended area of Iraq. The same target was hit several times by F-117s, and the last package consisted of seventeen F-111F on the 19th day of the war.

The main target of the strike was the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center near Baghdad, which was the site of the Osirak Nuclear Reactor that was attacked by the Iranian Air Force in 1980 and again by the Israeli Air Force in 1981, along with many other military sites across the city. Two aircraft were shot down, with two pilots becoming POWs. The mission goal was not met, with the reactors of the research facility only slightly damaged, although many of the secondary targets were hit. F-117 aircraft re-attacked the facility later causing significant damage.^[4]

The attack was the largest of the war and represented an attempt to strike Iraqi defenses a serious blow. The raid illustrated how a number of small incidents or stresses, none by themselves necessarily serious, could contribute to an unsatisfactory outcome,^[5] which eventually convinced USAF commanders to call off further airstrikes against downtown Baghdad by conventional (non-stealth) aircraft.^[2]

...

On the afternoon of 19 January, all the aircraft took off from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. From there, they all met with tankers in Saudi Arabia, near the border of Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Link-up and refueling with the tankers ran into problems. There was bad weather along the tanker tracks, and the tankers approached the release point too early. Consequently, they throttled back to minimum speed, which in turn seriously affected the accompanying fighters. The F-16s were soon close to stalling out, and some had to light afterburners just to stay airborne; four fighters coming off the last tanker fell so far behind that their mission commander ordered them to return to base.

[Firestorm]

China's closest airbase to Taiwan is probably Longtian (which they have been recently expanding btw along with some others). It is ~200km from Taipei. Less than that from Hsinchu. Even if most Chinese aircraft take off from other bases which are farther away the distances involved would not seem to require aerial refueling, especially near contested airspace. They will be sending Flankers and H-6K's not J-7's and J-8II's. The new H-6 versions might launch cruise missiles from well inside Fujian.

[Officer of Engineers]

Yup, but software and AI will make catching up easier. Its not a substitute for skill, morale and institutional memory, but a computer can take over, is one less thing a person has to learn to do. It makes the individual (aided by the computer) more effective, reduces manning costs and allows more time spent on mastering core functions.

No, it is not. An AI is no replacement for institutional knowledge nor training. Again take the theortical 500 pane strike package. You have to launch air fuelers to keep those who took off first in the air so that they have enough fuel to go altogether. While an AI can calculate which plane can refuel first, it cannot calculate human fuck ups such as the lack of constant training to properly refuel. If one single plane took too long to refuel, it throws the AI's plans out the window. Never mind the fact that the Chinese have zero concepts of reducing the strike packages and target loads. You can't ask the AI to do something that the Chinese don't know how to do.

Of course, no one has yet to point out that the RoCAF would be throwing everything they've got at those air gas pumps.

[zraver]

I know you realize that but want to highlight that for all.

Yup, but software and AI will make catching up easier. Its not a substitute for skill, morale and institutional memory, but a computer can take over, is one less thing a person has to learn to do. It makes the individual (aided by the computer) more effective, reduces manning costs and allows more time spent on mastering core functions.

[Albany Rifles]

Software advances may make their catching up easier.

Software upgrade is useless without training on it, personnel integrating results into tactics, techniques & procedures (TTPs) and integrating into daily ops.

For instance aerial tanking is a brutally difficult to execute and plan...it took decades to refine. And doing it long term exacerbates things.

If you want to see how challenged a NATO ally was 40 years ago read this.

https://vulcantothesky.org/articles/...on-black-buck/

Now we are not talking the same number and range but for the PLAAF this is quite a challenge.

Also, when have the PLA/AN ever conducted a large scale invasion over a contested shore.

I know they have been training but I just want al to realize software is not a handwave fix...I know you realize that but want to highlight that for all.

[statquo]

Taiwan defence minister pushes new arms spending, says China tensions worst in four decades

TAIPEI, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Military tensions with China are at their worst in more than 40 years, Taiwan's defence minister said on Wednesday, promoting a new arms spending package to lawmakers days after record numbers of Chinese aircraft flew into the island's air defence zone.

Tensions have hit a new high between Taipei and Beijing, which claims the democratic island as its own territory, and Chinese military aircraft have repeatedly flown through Taiwan's air defence identification zone, though no shots have been fired and the planes have stayed away from mainland Taiwan.

Over a four day period beginning last Friday, Taiwan reported close to 150 Chinese air force aircraft entered its air defence zone, part of a pattern of what Taipei calls Beijing's continued harassment of the island. Just one incursion was reported on Tuesday.

Asked by a lawmaker on the current military tensions with China at the parliament, Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said the situation was "the most serious" in more than 40 years since he joined the military, adding there was a risk of a "misfire" across the sensitive Taiwan Strait.

"For me as a military man, the urgency is right in front of me," he told a parliamentary committee reviewing an extra military spending plan worth T$240 billion ($8.6 billion) over the next five years for home-made weapons including missiles and warships.

However, while Taiwan has complained repeatedly about China's planes harrying them, the situation is far less dramatic than the crisis ahead of the 1996 presidential election, the last time the two were on the brink of war.

Then, China carried out missile tests in waters close to Taiwan hoping to prevent people voting for Lee Teng-hui, who China suspected of harbouring pro-independence views. Lee won convincingly.

China says Taiwan should be taken by force if necessary. Taiwan says it is an independent country and will defend its freedoms and democracy, blaming China for the tensions.

Chiu said China already has the ability to invade Taiwan and it will be capable of mounting a "full scale" invasion by 2025.

"By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration."

The United States, Taiwan's main military supplier, has confirmed its "rock-solid" commitment to Taiwan and also criticised China. Beijing blames Washington's policies of supporting Taiwan with arms sales and sending warships through the Taiwan Strait for raising tensions.

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday he had spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping about Taiwan and they agreed to abide by the Taiwan agreement.

Biden appeared to be referring to Washington's long-standing "one-China policy" under which it officially recognises Beijing rather than Taipei, and the Taiwan Relations Act, which makes clear that the U.S. decision to establish diplomatic ties with Beijing instead of Taiwan rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means.

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Pretty much what has been discussed here.

[Officer of Engineers]

Well then whoever it is in Washington who decides on Taiwan's military modernization has been either sleeping on the job or perhaps sending an intentional message that Washington may not be as interested in defending Taiwan as they might think. Taiwan's F-16's should have been upgraded to Block 50 standards ages ago. F-16A's are outclassed by just about any BVR capable Chinese jet and the PLAAF literally has several hundred of those now. There is a deal now to upgrade all of their F-16's but it has only recently got off the ground. Lets all hope that the PRC does not strike before the upgrade is complete.

Hate to tell you this. When it comes to building I-Phones or F-16s, I-Phones win each and everytime.

[Firestorm]

People, it's cyclic. This is nothing new. Before the Taiwanese got the F-16s, ML China gathered enough MiG-21s/J7s to seriously overwhelm the RoCAF. Enter George Bush Sr and the sale of F-16s. While the Taiwan Relations Act may not obligate the USN to sail to Taiwan's rescue, it does obligate the US to get rich off of arms sales to Taiwan. I'm not too concern with current balance tip towards China. Washington will eventually right that balance.

Taiwanese military modernization is decided more in the White House than in Taipei. Taiwanese Defence Budget be damned. If the White House decided to sell Taiwan something, Taipei will find the money somewhere. In fact, I cannot think of one American weapons sale that Taiwan turned down,

Well then whoever it is in Washington who decides on Taiwan's military modernization has been either sleeping on the job or perhaps sending an intentional message that Washington may not be as interested in defending Taiwan as they might think. Taiwan's F-16's should have been upgraded to Block 50 standards ages ago. F-16A's are outclassed by just about any BVR capable Chinese jet and the PLAAF literally has several hundred of those now. There is a deal now to upgrade all of their F-16's but it has only recently got off the ground. Lets all hope that the PRC does not strike before the upgrade is complete.

[Officer of Engineers]

It's of zero consequences for two main reasons.

1) Those ships need docks. What the Germans do right after D-Day? Blew up the docks. Even after the Canadians took the Schelt, the Allies spent weeks repairing the docks before they can use them. The Allies brought over makeshift docks to the Normandy Beaches in order to facilitate their advances inland. You can bet that if (and a big if) the China Army manages a beachhead, Taiwanese ports would see some very big booms.

2) The only thing that scares the Chinese COMMUNIST Party more than Taiwanese Independence is massive unemployment. Chinese workers can't vote. That leaves the only way to air their grieveances against the CCP is to riot. And rioting workers threatens the CCP far more than an independent Taiwan can. If those ships are used to support a Taiwanese invasion, they can't be used to ship goods. If goods can't be shipped, than factory workers are out of a job. To intentionally cause massive unemployment, Taiwan be damned, is the one thing the CCP cannot do.