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War in Space, Space to Earth War, Moon to Earth War

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  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    So, for space exploration to be successful, the investors have to go along on the initial voyage, as colonists?
    I don't think so.
    I'm a little surprised at this response, DOR. I expect this kind of knee-jerk, simplistic, putting words in my mouth, sort of thing from a Trump follower, not you.

    As OOE said:

    Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    You didn't ask about space exploration. You asked about old Lief.

    The title of this thread is war in space. Is there anything out there worth going to war over.

    How many investors are you are going to get with zero return for a money sink hole?

    Leave a comment:


  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    So, for space exploration to be successful,
    You didn't ask about space exploration. You asked about old Lief.

    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    the investors have to go along on the initial voyage, as colonists?
    The title of this thread is war in space. Is there anything out there worth going to war over.

    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    I don't think so.
    How many investors are you are going to get with zero return for a money sink hole?

    Leave a comment:


  • DOR
    replied
    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    As OoE said, a colony. The same reason for pretty much all of the voyages of discovery in that era: Resources and Lebensraum.
    So, for space exploration to be successful, the investors have to go along on the initial voyage, as colonists?
    I don't think so.

    Leave a comment:


  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    What was the ROI on Lief Erikson's first visit to your neck of the woods?
    As OoE said, a colony. The same reason for pretty much all of the voyages of discovery in that era: Resources and Lebensraum.

    Leave a comment:


  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    What was the ROI on Lief Erikson's first visit to your neck of the woods?
    A colony.

    Leave a comment:


  • DOR
    replied
    Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    But by its very nature, this has to be huge and a grand operation. To deliver the ROVER to Mars took over a $billion and all we got back are nice pictures and some measurements
    What was the ROI on Lief Erikson's first visit to your neck of the woods?

    Leave a comment:


  • tantalus
    replied
    This is probably the equivalent of 1989 and the invention of the World Wide Web. A platform to innovate upon and difficult to predict the outcomes. Spacex have dramatically altered the cost of going to space through reusable rockets and now the second space era begins and it will be privately driven and market driven. As we well know, thats a powerful mechanism once applied to a space, pun intended.

    There may very well be an explosion in Earth orbit applications which will dramatically increase economic activity in space.

    The big question is the moon and the big unknowns are next gen tech that alters the calculus in ways we cant forsee. Perhaps helium 3 will be the key resource to fusion energy as many have predicted. There are good reasons to expect there is far more helium 3 on the moon for us to mine. That could single handely create a self sufficient lunar colony that the earth depends on. They may be able to produce rocket fuel from lunar ice and export it to orbit at far cheaper prices than on earth due to their lower gravitiational mass and mine rare minerals in lunar impact craters that have been left undisurbed or move asteroids to the moon orbit. They can make concrete as lunar soil has the right ingredients ans create large buildings to support tourism. Not to mention low gravity manufacturing and environmentally polluting industries if we ever externalise economic costs properly on earth and ESG investing reaches logical consclusions. Over time an economically dependent moon could thrive and lay the groundwork for a broader space faring society.

    I would suspect that space war would be signficant impacted by cyber and earth based communication disrpution. It would be largely dominated by economic considerations and asymmetric realities, meaning small remote piloted or autnomous devices that are cheaper to build would damage large expensive and vulnerable infrastruture that is fixed or predictble orbits. This could allow terrorist organisations or smaller nations to have disproportionate impacts.
    Last edited by tantalus; 15 Aug 20,, 12:23.

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  • Monash
    replied
    Originally posted by Wonderful Plans View Post
    You're not considering what big industry and big corporate has already done and is already doing on scales greater than ancient Egypt. In the U.S.A. the government has to compete with big business to stay #1 and if it weren't for the military sector they would be badly beaten. If it can be done and a plan well modeled and the technology is possible and the money is there then there you go, they'll push through the plans as hard and fast as they can. It's trillions and trillions of dollars. Some asteroids have the potential to contain more of a single resource than all of the minable Earth.
    The trouble with Space Industry under that scenario all that is that its classic 'boot strapping'. There's no reason to mine minerals in space unless you have the demand for a large amount of space infrastructure to begin with and no mining of those minerals without the infrastructure.

    In fact at the moment I can see only one space based industry that is likely to be both potentially viable and which could also (eventually) generate enough demand that spaced based mining/manufacturing becomes economical. And that is space tourism.

    First though the cost per kilogram for launch has to continue falling. There will never be enough demand for 'bums on seats' while only millionaires and above can afford a seat on one of the new launch platforms. But if you can get it down to something approaching a first class airline ticket then there would be enough global demand that 'vacations' in orbital habs would become a big ticket item. More people in orbit = bigger habs with demand for more facilities. THEN demand for space mining and manufacturing becomes practical. And once it kicks off all the other options for space based industry become viable as well.

    As for a pure 'space' war? Could happen but IMO at least for the foreseeable future seems extremely unlikely. Not only would it be horrendously expensive, it would be hard/next to impossible to hide. To many people watching and no way to easily hide. So who attacked who first in a classic style military operation (vs say sabotage) is going to become public knowledge pretty quickly. Any sudden eruption of war in space would have to be linked to some kind of major conflict here on Earth, whereupon we all have bigger problems than who destroyed what moon base.
    Last edited by Monash; 16 Jun 20,, 06:28.

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  • Wonderful Plans
    replied
    Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Are you reading what you wrote? So you're telling me that it is cheaper to goto an asteroid that we don't know what it has, tens of light minutes out into space, than to mine the stuff on earth? In short, we have to spend over a $billion just to send one single drill, never mind a return vehicle, to an asteroid. Even Californium at $25mil per gram, we make that stuff here on earth. About the only stuff more expensive is anti-matter at $62TRILLION per gram but we're not going to find that on an asteroid. So, if you do the math, even an entire asteroid 10 miles across of pure diamond won't be worth the investment to get it.
    Mining is environmentally destructive and space is limited. Also, resources are more abundant on lifeless asteroids and lifeless moons because they lack continental subduction and organic matter. All that dirt is gone and the resources sit closer to the surface in higher abundance because there was less mixing. Some moons half the size of earths moon contain triple the water content of the whole earth, same situation with other elements like nickel and iron and carbons. The extremities of space temperatures also keeps some rare natural earth gases in a crystaline frozen state, giving opportunity to mine higher volumes with less time and energy.

    There were several articles that I read about this a year or two ago published by the leading science journals. What makes space mining so attractive is the possibility of resources thousands of times as abundant as that of mines on earth. This would make companies tens of trillions.

    But with a possibility of a hostile warlike human prescence that could make space mining impossible for private corporations, the hostile environment could force corporations to become their own sovereign nations in order to create their own impenetrable defenses.
    Last edited by Wonderful Plans; 07 Mar 20,, 22:36.

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  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by Wonderful Plans View Post
    Of course this sort of thing would be expensive. But regardless of however many billions of dollars the price tag would total, all that money would amount to far less in physical volume and weight that the crafts and equipment would possess than if the same amount were spent on an Earth-bound operation.

    A lot of that money would go into the launch.
    Are you reading what you wrote? So you're telling me that it is cheaper to goto an asteroid that we don't know what it has, tens of light minutes out into space, than to mine the stuff on earth? In short, we have to spend over a $billion just to send one single drill, never mind a return vehicle, to an asteroid. Even Californium at $25mil per gram, we make that stuff here on earth. About the only stuff more expensive is anti-matter at $62TRILLION per gram but we're not going to find that on an asteroid. So, if you do the math, even an entire asteroid 10 miles across of pure diamond won't be worth the investment to get it.

    Leave a comment:


  • Wonderful Plans
    replied
    Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    But by its very nature, this has to be huge and a grand operation. To deliver the ROVER to Mars took over a $billion and all we got back are nice pictures and some measurements
    Of course this sort of thing would be expensive. But regardless of however many billions of dollars the price tag would total, all that money would amount to far less in physical volume and weight that the crafts and equipment would possess than if the same amount were spent on an Earth-bound operation.

    A lot of that money would go into the launch.

    Leave a comment:


  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by Wonderful Plans View Post
    Just like any other business you wouldn't start off with a huge and grand operation. This would all happen over years of time.
    But by its very nature, this has to be huge and a grand operation. To deliver the ROVER to Mars took over a $billion and all we got back are nice pictures and some measurements

    Leave a comment:


  • Wonderful Plans
    replied
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    His point is how do you make things in space. You seem to think that can be solved. I'm not so convinced.

    It would take a massive investment to build the infrastructure. What will be the impetus to do that ?

    Let's say we get past this then the question of finding those minerals comes up

    Do we know what is out there and where it is ? no, we have to go prospecting

    Let's say we find a rock that has what we want. How then do we guide it to its destination to process it

    Nudge it towards the moon and then let it impact at some designated point ?

    We go back to the initial question ? why do it in the first place

    Unless what we want is no longer available here and we have no other choice.

    When is that likely to be the case ? i don't know.
    How do you make things in space?
    Theorum says that you would start with a small operation launched from Earth. The mining equipment of the operation would be remote controlled from the safety of either a space craft or a land base on a separate asteroid or the Moon. Starting slow, the resource would be returned to Earth to sell and reinvest back into the mining operation. This would grow the operation to whatever size needed to satisfy the owner, setting up operation in a hollowed out asteroid or on the Moon, where climate controlled production facilities would process the resources that can be used to build more craft. Just like any other business you wouldn't start off with a huge and grand operation. This would all happen over years of time.

    All of the technology exists to make this happen.
    Last edited by Wonderful Plans; 04 Mar 20,, 02:54.

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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Originally posted by Wonderful Plans View Post
    You're not considering what big industry and big corporate has already done and is already doing on scales greater than ancient Egypt. In the U.S.A. the government has to compete with big business to stay #1 and if it weren't for the military sector they would be badly beaten. If it can be done and a plan well modeled and the technology is possible and the money is there then there you go, they'll push through the plans as hard and fast as they can. It's trillions and trillions of dollars. Some asteroids have the potential to contain more of a single resource than all of the minable Earth.
    His point is how do you make things in space. You seem to think that can be solved. I'm not so convinced.

    It would take a massive investment to build the infrastructure. What will be the impetus to do that ?

    Let's say we get past this then the question of finding those minerals comes up

    Do we know what is out there and where it is ? no, we have to go prospecting

    Let's say we find a rock that has what we want. How then do we guide it to its destination to process it

    Nudge it towards the moon and then let it impact at some designated point ?

    We go back to the initial question ? why do it in the first place

    Unless what we want is no longer available here and we have no other choice.

    When is that likely to be the case ? i don't know.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Feb 20,, 21:19.

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  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by Wonderful Plans View Post
    Once fuel and equipment building materials are found on particularly feasible asteroids all those prices will plummet because the bulk of everything can be found in zero gravity. (Iron, hydrogen, silicates)
    Major problem. They're not all on the same rock. And last I check, there's only one rock with enough water and oxygen to make it economically feasible to do industrial production.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 13 Feb 20,, 21:09.

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