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Germany's strategic error? Barbarossa...

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  • #16
    Germany could have beat Russia until December 11, 1941. Despite the post war myths, the USSR was not an unbeatable colossus. The shortage of everything but blood by the end of 41 and the disruption of supply and production chains meant the USSR was dependent on Lend-Lease aid. Losing 1/4 of their aircraft, 1/10th of their tanks, 50% of their explosives, and almost all their best 4x4 trucks would have crippled the Red Army's offensive capacity. Likewise the diversion of German resources to the West helped even out the playing field in the East. Without a reasonable fear of invasion a large amount of German troops could have been shifted East, Italy would likely have remained in the war in a North African stalemate. In particular the loss of day time fighters to defend Germany now reversed by a one front war coupled with the loss of 1/4 of Soviet combat aircraft would have been a massive reversal over real history. Th real strategic blunder by Hitler was in declaring war on the US. He should have delayed as long as possible, even given up the Battle of the Atlantic if it would have bought him a year. His second biggest blunder was his fear of a volk uprising. He believed the stab in the back and kept production of consumer goods up for too long instead of shifting to a war time economy in 39, 40, 41, or even 42. Germany going full war time in 40 and not having to face in 3 directions at once would have given the troops in the east a lot more material and even fuel to work with.

    BF, gonna disagree with you. It doesn't matter how hard the Soviets trapped at Kiev fought, they were not blocking the way to Moscow, lacked the fuel, ammunition and vehicles to break out in good order and their strategic leadership was still focused on holding places rather than buying time. The diversion away from first Leningrad and then Moscow to chase after less valuable lower hanging fruit was all Hitler, not red army resistance. The Loss of Leningrad and Moscow would have forced a mass withdrawal in the center and north because there was no rail, road or river network to support them once those to places fell. Hard to see a mass counter attack coming out of the Gorky Reaches with no Moscow rail hub. At the very least the loss of all European Russia west of Gorky would have slowed the Soviets down by at last a year. If there is no Lend-Lease and no Moscow rail hub they are done.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

      Actual numbers....158 total with 28 Essex class Fleet carriers, 8 Independence class light carriers & 122 escort carriers (many were for RN/RCN service).

      Now let's do aircraft...the Japanese produced a little over 60,000 aircraft from 1938-45. The US produced over 89,000 aircraft....in 1944 alone.
      If anyone's interested here's a Youtube video that shows/charts US and Japanese naval construction rates across all classes from Day 1 of the Pacific War until its conclusion. (I suggest turning up the viewing speed and turning off the Music)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9ag2x3CS9M
      Last edited by Monash; 04 Nov 20,, 00:58.
      If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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      • #18
        June 25, 1940 the Germans are in the same place as they were in 1918. They now occupy all of France, Russia is still out of the war, British Navy can still blockade the the Germans. The German economy is not heading in the right direction. On the sea German ASW is not even close to the Allies ASW capabilities. Russia could supply fuel. Germany will not be able to import what it needs.

        Going into Russia up until about 1943 the Germans are still making gains. The Russians had collapsed in WW1, faltered in the Russian Civil War, paid an enormous price in Finland. In the beginning of the campaign the Russian losses were catastrophic. The Allies Military and civilian leadership except for FDR considered the Russians finished. The only part of the German Military that was realistic in it's goals and capabilities was the the German logistics Corp. They promised and delivered on a 700 to 800 kilometer thrust and they delivered. Russia is to Germany as China is to Japan, Too large to supply and conquer. To quote Buffalo Bills legendary coach Marv Levy. "The Germans can't win on the road."

        Dr. Robert Cintino gave a great talk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNDhswF1GKk&t=13s

        Also a great book but a tough read The Blitzkrieg Legend: The 1940 Campaign in the West
        Last edited by Dazed; 05 Jan 21,, 02:07. Reason: Left out an important part.

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        • #19
          And as a Pats fan....the corollary is Marv Levy can't win a Super Bowl!
          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
          Mark Twain

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
            And as a Pats fan....the corollary is Marv Levy can't win a Super Bowl!
            A Bills fan will tell you they only lost 4 Super Bowls not 5,

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Dazed View Post

              A Bills fan will tell you they only lost 4 Super Bowls not 5,
              To lose 5 they have to get to 5.....
              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
              Mark Twain

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

                To lose 5 they have to get to 5.....
                The 49ers won their first 5 the last 2 well..

                I am as old as the Pats, First 19 years of life spent in MA. Son of season ticket holders. Never seen a quarterback take a beating like Jim Plunkett. Back to topic/

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Dazed View Post

                  The 49ers won their first 5 the last 2 well..

                  I am as old as the Pats, First 19 years of life spent in MA. Son of season ticket holders. Never seen a quarterback take a beating like Jim Plunkett. Back to topic/
                  I'm older than them!!!!
                  “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                  Mark Twain

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