Hypothetical Invasion of Japan,45/46

**sparten** · 13 Jul 05,, 12:30

I was wondering how the planned invasion of Japan in November 1945 would have panned out.?

Assuming that in our senario, the Atomic Option does not exist, the following would have happened.

The Allied Navies were already mostly in the Pacific area since 1944. In addition, the Brits would have their new Colosses Class Carriers, the Americans would have the Carriers historically not deployed e.g USS Antietam, and the New Midway Class Battle Carriers. THe RCN, RAN and RNZNN (if that is right) would also be on station

The IJN at this point was more or less history, so it would not have made much of an impact.

At the time of the historical surrender, Allied Airforces were redeploying to Okinawa. So in addition to the Superfortresses, you have B-17s and Lancasters from Europe. These would have supported the Invasion itself, in addition to normal bombardment missions.

Finally you have land forces redeploying from ETO, as a well as from the Eastern Front.

Presuming the actual invasion plan Operation Downfall, was being followed, how long do you think it would have taken for the Allies. How would hings have gone in other theaters [MAnchuria and Burma].

Remember, in this universe the Atomic option does not exist?

**Officer of Engineers** · 13 Jul 05,, 14:09

Lemay was ready to firebomb Japan back to the stoneage. Considering most houses were paper and wood - not that hard to do.

**Shek** · 13 Jul 05,, 14:52

To understand the worst case scenario of casualties for the invasion of Japan, DOD didn't have to order any new Purple Hearts until 2000, and that was only to replenish depot level stocks.

http://hnn.us/articles/1801.html

**sparten** · 13 Jul 05,, 15:48

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

Lemay was ready to firebomb Japan back to the stoneage. Considering most houses were paper and wood - not that hard to do.

Fine, sir, but how would the invasion itself have gone. My own reading has been that Japanese Resistance would have been fanatical, but would it have been effective?

What about SE Asia,China, where the IJA still had a presence. What about that battle.

**Amled** · 13 Jul 05,, 16:28

Originally Posted by sparten

What about SE Asia,China, where the IJA still had a presence. What about that battle.

The million+ man army Stalin had mobilized in the east should have been able to eliminate their presence in China and Manchuria.
As for SE Asia, the Allies were already rolling them back up to and including Burma.

**sparten** · 13 Jul 05,, 18:01

Actually they had already taken Burma. Many Indian divisions for example had relocated to Okinawa in preparation for invasion.

How would the invasion itself have gone? I have always thought the Japnese would probably have been defeated fairly quickly. Just look at the firepower.

American Army in Europe, US Marines, Pacific Army.
Soviets
British Army, and IMHO the best fighters of all the, Indian Army.
Canadians, Aussies and the rest.

The Allied Airforces, B-17,B-24, Lancasters, Stirlings in addition to B-29.

Almost 50 fleet carriers.

Japan was history, at least IMO

**Bill** · 13 Jul 05,, 18:15

It would've been a bloodbath(and technically, there were two invasions, the first on honshu, the second on Kyushu.) The Japanese had correctly guessed where the allies were to come ashore, and they had by far the greatest network of defenses ever faced waiting to meet us from the moment we landed.

Figure 12-18 months start to finish, with well in excess of 1,000,000 US/Allied casualties, and as many as 20,000,000 japanese.

**sparten** · 13 Jul 05,, 20:13

Originally Posted by M21Sniper

It would've been a bloodbath(and technically, there were two invasions, the first on honshu, the second on Kyushu.) The Japanese had correctly guessed where the allies were to come ashore, and they had by far the greatest network of defenses ever faced waiting to meet us from the moment we landed.

Figure 12-18 months start to finish, with well in excess of 1,000,000 US/Allied casualties, and as many as 20,000,000 japanese.

No airforce, no navy, fanatical resistance, yes, effective no.

**troung** · 13 Jul 05,, 20:48

They still had an air force up to the end of the war...

**Wraith601** · 14 Jul 05,, 05:12

Originally Posted by sparten

No airforce, no navy, fanatical resistance, yes, effective no.

The Japanese still have lare numbers of kamikazes including the Ohka rocket plane hidden throughout the countryside. Lots of them would have gotten up and some would have made it through. It would have been an extremely bloody battle. Anybody know if this was ever novelized or anything?

**sparten** · 14 Jul 05,, 06:03

The Japanese were ready to surrender in July1945. Am invasion would have succeeded within a few days.

Reason shortage of raw materials, no oil hence no avaition fuel.

**Shek** · 14 Jul 05,, 11:55

Originally Posted by troung

They still had an air force up to the end of the war...

They had an air force, but little to no trained pilots and a fast dwindling supply of fuel.

**Officer of Engineers** · 14 Jul 05,, 12:22

The terrain was a great equalizer for the Japanese which forced the Americans to fight a WWI style of combat. However, as the Soviets had shown initially in Siberia against an IJA incursion and then, wiping out the IJA mainforce in Manchuria, when it came to modern mechanized manouver warfare, the Japanese were nothing but speed bumps to be stomped.

**sparten** · 14 Jul 05,, 13:38

Pardon my ignorance, but how is the terrain in Japan?

**FlyingCaddy** · 16 Jul 05,, 07:29

First, I would like to make a few notices. The operations would have been Kyushu first, then Honshu (b/c the latter is the main island) Second the names of both assualts were Olympia for the former and Coronet for the latter.

Now Japan is a very mountainous country, so although in mech warfare the Russians and even the western allies could probably out maneuver them on flat terrain, how would their mechanized tactics face up to an enemy using most of its mountains as forts.

Further we need to remember that the early model B-36s would start to come on line just as the invasion occured, so it is possible that even attacks from state Side could occur.