Thread: What if - Spain joined the Axis in 1939.

Originally Posted by 1979

That is correct,however
the FD class is comparable to american LL locomotives,
they had around 3000 of those.

3000 isn't that many given the needs of the Red Army to get stuff shipped to it from across the Urals, and the needs of Soviet industry to recieve materials from the LL ports. Consider that the US had engines in service with 6x the tractive ability 2-10-10-2, 4-8-8-4 and 4-6-6-4.

Originally Posted by zraver

3000 isn't that many given the needs of the Red Army to get stuff shipped to it from across the Urals, and the needs of Soviet industry to recieve materials from the LL ports. Consider that the US had engines in service with 6x the tractive ability 2-10-10-2, 4-8-8-4 and 4-6-6-4.

I'm not aware that such locomotives were delivered under LL,however that's besides the point.

1,623,083 tones delivered under the second protocol trough pacific ports
works out a average of 135.257 long tons/month or 150 trains/month

on the red army needs ...I'm not sure.
are we discussing a force the size of august storm ?

Originally Posted by 1979

I'm not aware that such locomotives were delivered under LL,however that's besides the point.

I don't know that any that big were delivered but some big locomotives were delivered.

1,623,083 tones delivered under the second protocol trough pacific ports
works out a average of 135.257 long tons/month or 150 trains/month

5-10 trains a day depending on how they ran them, much of the line was a single line so traffic had to flow in the same direction. Also some of the line is unusable at least temporarily from fall to spring until the frost heaves can be repaired and stop occuring.

on the red army needs ...I'm not sure.
are we discussing a force the size of august storm ?

Pretty much, at least in terms of manpower. The 45 Soviet divisions w/500 tanks and 500 aircraft in the Far East were fine defensively, but by 42-43 Japanese strength in Manchuria is over 20 Divisions w/1000 tanks, 5000 artillery pieces and 1200 aircraft and the IJA also has a large (and expanding) body of troops and aircraft in China that can be shifted.

The Soviet's will likely need to feild at least 1:1 in tanks if 500 of them are T-34's, 2:1 in artillery, 3:1 in aircraft and 3:1 in men in the 42-43 time frame. And then be able to support a force that size driving to and taking/blocking Korea and the Chinese coast faster than the Japanese can fall back on interior lines. Otherwise all Stalin gains is territory, not a penal army. In real history the Red Army used an even larger margin than this, had extensive preparation time, extensive practice at deep penetration, abundant airborne forces, vastly more logisitical support against a much weaker enemy.

the japanese number of arty includes mortars ?

Originally Posted by 1979

the japanese number of arty includes mortars ?

Not sure, but probably. But the smallest Japanese Mortar in wide use durign WWII was the 81mm type 97. It was actually bigger than the Japanese 70mm infantry gun which could act as direct fire support, howitzer support or as an AT gun. Japanese infantry battlaions had 2 70mm guns each. I don't know about mortar complament. The Japanese also had 2 types of 90mm and 2 type of 150mm mortars and a 240mm mortar.

other Japanese artillery was fairly mundane- 75mm feild (3 types), 75mm mountain (2 types), 75mm cavalry (1 type), 105mm howitzer (1 type), 105mm cannon (3 types), 155mm cannon (1 type) and 150mm howitzer (3 types). Plus a single 240mm railway gun in Manchuria. The Japanese also used a 203mm and 400mm Rocket but not in salvos like the the US Callipoe, German Nebelwerfer or Soviet Katyusha.

OK, since this thread original question is long dead can it be merged with "Could Germany..." or just be closed?

Of course not.In derailing the thread we trust.

I am a heretic :D

Oh, I forgot to mention the Japanese had 1 type of self propelled 150mm artillery.

My turn.

1) There were 6 Chinese Armies in the field that the Japanese never managed to destroy. 2 CCP and 4 KMT Armies. Namely, because those Chinese armies never accepted battle.

This is important. The Japanese Offerred Battle ... but they never forced Battle. Translation: The Japanese never offerred battle where the Chinese cannot tolerate the losses. Especially when both Mao and Chiang accepted the strategic view that the Japanese were destined to loose.

2) In this particular scenario, I am leaving the Soviets out of actual combat aside from supplying the Chinese. (I will argue latter on that it is a supply that they can well afford)

3) The IJA is a positional army. It was not and never has been an maneuver army. Jason, your arguements about Japanese AT tank guns and MBTs are mout. There has NOT been one incidence NOR even one single writing that the Japanese appreciated maneuver warfare. This was a WWI army. Pitting WWII firepower to a WWI army does not make it a WWII army. The IJA was and is a WWI army. It will live and die against the Chinese as a WWI army but we both know that it will die as a WWI army against a WWII Soviet army no matter what that Soviet army is armed with.

4) The CCP Red Army is a Horse Artillery Army. In fact, let me state this extremely clearer. The IJA was a railway army. They control reaches in China within the support of the railways ... which is why the CCP can control the North, the KMT the interior, and the Japanese the Coastline.

This explains a hell of a lot. The IJA never managed to take out either the KMT nor the CCP because they were beyond the reach of the railways.

Also, this would tell you how vulnerable the IJA is to a Soviet thrust.

There was a reason why August Storm suceeded so fast. And it was not due to weaponry.

So, why do I think that China was eventually going to evict Japan?

Several reasons, akin to the IEDs that is now discouraging the Americans from staying in Afghanistan, Japan was suffering losses from slit throats that was not sustainable from facing a 4 million man armies that were out of her reach.

Japan never reached Xinjiang, the home of the CCP and she would never reached Xinjiang. Trying to do so would allow the Soviets to kill the entire IJA in China in one easy stike.

Japan could never reach Tibet, the KMT side of the Burma Road. Trying to do so would ... well, trying to do so would confront Chinese armies commanded by Gen Stillwell and we all know how well the IJA came out on that end.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

2) In this particular scenario, I am leaving the Soviets out of actual combat aside from supplying the Chinese. (I will argue latter on that it is a supply that they can well afford)

I Think it was in Stalin interest for Japan to bleed, not lose in china.

Originally Posted by 1979

I Think it was in Stalin interest for Japan to bleed, not lose in china.

The end result of such a case is for Japan to leave China. No nation can afford to bleed forever.

Dang it sir, had a huge reply types and accidentally nuked it.

Originally Posted by zraver

other Japanese artillery was fairly mundane- 75mm feild (3 types), 75mm mountain (2 types), 75mm cavalry (1 type), 105mm howitzer (1 type), 105mm cannon (3 types), 155mm cannon (1 type) and 150mm howitzer (3 types). Plus a single 240mm railway gun in Manchuria. The Japanese also used a 203mm and 400mm Rocket but not in salvos like the the US Callipoe, German Nebelwerfer or Soviet Katyusha.

I looked up Japanese 75 mm pieces, Type 90 looks impressive but was produced in too small numbers.