Thread: The Hawaii Invasion Hypothesis

As for the reason why the invasion wasn't in the Japanese options.

I think zraver makes very valids points when signaling the IJA vs the IJN respective influence, and the fact that a Japan who thought it was the center of the world couldn't bring itself to realize how important was its conflict vs the US. Much more so than anything that happened in what they considered their backwater: China.

Anyway, I suppose to know for sure one would have to unearth the IJN deliberations records to see if it was in the cards at some point. I've been thinking about this issue in the last hours (and frankly, I'm a bit saturated with having LOCs and shiping lanes across the Pacific in my mind, which I don't really understand to start with).

It has occurred to me that maybe another factor was that the Japanese simply didn't realize what they had within their reach. Specifically, the devastating effect of a surprise attack on airfields, and the resulting air superiority they would have enjoyed; so if I'm not wrong that might be one of the reasons they didn't even contemplate an invasion. They copied Taranto too literally. They assumed the air fight would not be settled in their favor and an invasion was impossible, my bet is that they didn't even think about it, when in fact it seems very much doable.



As I don't have access to the Japanese IJN archives, and anyway, I don't read Japanese, I suppose I'll never know for sure. I can live with that, the only drawback being everytime I try to watch the 3 hour long "Tora, Tora, Tora!" I'll be unable to concentrate in the action, and would instead entertain grandiose plans of conquest across the Pacific .

Originally Posted by zraver

Not only will the Japanese have their scout planes out, the cruisers will not be separated from the fleet like at Midway, but the IJN's sub doctrine called for fleet support so a line of Japans subs would be pushed out to look for the carriers and between the islands and the US West Coast.

Submarines are rather slow especially when traveling submerged (about 8 knots) and the area of operation is very large, Saratoga has received a lucky shoot during 1942 but a planed hit it`s something else.
Cruisers are also needed to give AAA cover to the landing force , witch is not as fast as the carriers and would have difficulties keeping up with them especially during air operations.

Originally Posted by Castellano

It would have to be a very lucky strike for the planes to catch the Japanese at the precise moment they are in the beaches, now wouldn't it.
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Are u sure about that ?

Originally Posted by bugs

Are u sure about that ?

Positive.

By the time your carriers show up we have seen that is all over for the US forces in the islands, all essential objectives have been taken. Even if they have not completed the conquest, you won't find no Japanese in the beaches. In fact, the pilots are unlikely to fly over the islands at all.

You could argue that the Japanese couldn't know where are the carriers for certain beforehand, but here is the decisive factor: whichever way you cut it, whether the IJN catches the USN carriers in the harbor, or outside the harbor, they know for certain that they'll be able to deploy a security belt around their invading troops for long enough so they can take the airfields & harbors. They can afford to loose some ships to a foolish USN counter-attack, sure. So what? They would still deny contact between US planes and invading troops.

The invasion cannot be challenged 2 weeks later by the US. Forget it. And it would probably result in a disaster for US carriers in exchange for...almost nothing.

Because what is the US going to do about the invasion which is the whole point? Send ships full of troops to waters infested with IJN submarines?

Bad move.

Originally Posted by zraver

Yes they did 6 fleet carriers 3 light carriers, 1 super dreadnought, 5 battleships, 4 battle cruisers (renamed as battleships) and 49 cruisers of various types and 35 submarines.

Is that their entire fleet or just the ones that can be deployed to the eastern pacific? I thought that force has to be split up because of other obligations in south west pacific.

Originally Posted by zraver

Not really a point of debate is it?

I think it is even for the campaign at Hawaii. The longer it drags out, the less fuel and ammo those carrier planes have. Eventually there will be no air cover and no ground support for the IJA troops in Oahu. They might even run out of ammo for the troops on the ground.

Originally Posted by zraver

Japan got beat in a mechanized war, not really a factor in considering war with America. Japan had to this point never lost a naval battle, and they were still winning in China. They also considered themselves heirs to the Royal Navy and thought like the RN they could beat any foe.

Agreed. Their mistake was thinking tactically, not strategically. They underestimated American resolve and the incredible war production, which was never before seen in the world.

Originally Posted by gunnut

Part of the Japanese air power during the Philippines campaign was based in Taiwan. Western observers were shocked to find out the range of the Zeroes. There would be no Japanese base near Hawaii. Everything they needed and wanted to use would have to be carried.

Well, this time around they almost annihilated US air force in Hawaii in two sorties without the need of land bases. They were one wave short of being completely unchallenged for at least the next two weeks.

Did the IJN have underway replenishment techniques mastered in 1941? The tankers and supply ships would need to transfer enough fuel and ammo to the carriers if they wanted to maintain air operations over Hawaii.

No idea. But if they did the Singapore bike thing, I suppose they can figure out a system to maintain their carriers' operations.
Thing is, doesn't seem an impossible obstacle

Originally Posted by Castellano

Positive.
By the time your carriers show up we have seen that is all over for the US forces in the islands, all essential objectives have been taken. Even if they have not completed the conquest, you won't find no Japanese in the beaches. In fact, the pilots are unlikely to fly over the islands at all.
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In fact they had...
link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Enterprise_(CV-6)

Originally Posted by Castellano

Well, this time around they almost annihilated US air force in Hawaii in two sorties without the need of land bases. They were one wave short of being completely unchallenged for at least the next two weeks.



No idea. But if they did the Singapore bike thing, I suppose they can figure out a system to maintain their carriers' operations.
Thing is, doesn't seem an impossible obstacle

Agreed. It's not an impossible task. Just difficult and unlikely.

Originally Posted by bugs

In fact they had...
link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Enterprise_(CV-6)

The Enterprise wouldn't have been able to challenge the landings by itself, would it?

Lexington dive bombers are just two hours away ...

bugs, this is the 2 carrier counter attack scenario. They'll be chopped to pieces.

Originally Posted by Castellano

The Enterprise wouldn't have been able to challenge the landings by itself, would it?

Certainly it would be able to challenge, but not prevent. Halsey would be faced with a dilemma. His first instinct would be to attack with whatever forces he had (Enterprise and Lexington). But the prudent move would be to wait for reinforcements from the mainland (Saratoga). Even if Halsey didn't destroy the Japanese fleet, it might have been sufficient to damage it, with the Japanese fleet being so far away from its home base and repair facilities.

Damage the Japanese Fleet, force parts of it to retire from the battlefield, and give US forces on Oahu a fighting chance to survive long enough for Atlantic fleet reinforcements to arrive in the form of Wasp, Hornet, Yorktown, and maybe even North Carolina and Washington (both of which were in the middle of shakedown).

Also, I lived on Oahu for a a while, and while the US forces might not have been well prepared, Oahu offers some excellent natural defensive terrain, ie nearly impentrable mountain ranges and isolated valleys. Given enough food and ammunition, a defensive force could hold out for a while.

Well in my opinion the INJ would not risk a landing until the two American carriers are located and attacked .
But if they do ( with all the risk involved ) they would need to keep half of the fighters to protect the 6 carriers. At Midway the lack of air cover proved fatal .

Originally Posted by Johnny W

Damage the Japanese Fleet, force parts of it to retire from the battlefield, and give US forces on Oahu a fighting chance to survive long enough for Atlantic fleet reinforcements to arrive in the form of Wasp, Hornet, Yorktown, and maybe even North Carolina and Washington (both of which were in the middle of shakedown).

The US forces on Oahu don't stand a fighting chance for long without reinforcements from outside, something the USN cannot provide. It cannot risk sending convoys of men, not against such Task Force with subs all over the place. You risk the carriers for a dubious prize.

PD: lucky you, Hawaii must be incredible.