philipjd

Usually these questions are 'Could Germany have won' or 'Could the Japanese have won' so I thought I'd try something different.....

If you were either Tojo or Hitler, what would you have need to do in order to achieve your objectives either without war with the US or forcing the US out of the war?

Thoughta appreciated.

cheers
Phil

ZFBoxcar

Nothing short of nuclear weapons and a delivery system for firing them at the US would have made them consider dropping out. As this was completely impossible, theres noway the US would have just left the war, and the thought of a Japanese or a German invasion of North America is laughable. The Japanese army was only a slightly more advanced version of a WWI army and it was all engaged in China. The Germans had 80% of their forces fighting the USSR and the other 20% trying to hold back the Western Allies. As for keeping the US out of the war...hmm. Make FDR lose the election. Other than that there isn't much I can think of. The Japanese would have been starved for oil supplies because of the US embargo, so if they hadn't launched their attack, they would have been slowly ripped apart by the people's of Asia and maybe, eventually, a concerted effort by the British Empire and the Soviets. There really was no winning strategy for Togo or Hitler involving the US remaining neutral, considering the lend lease program and the embargo against Japan.

Kipruss

Pearl Harbour (the movie) is playing on TV as I type and that must have seemed like a good idea to the Japanese at the time. Perhaps if the aircraft carriers had been caught???

EPA

If Sea lion the invasion by the germans into britan would have been a succsess. the Germans would have to go against the states. It was in Mein Kampf II If the Japs would have Beat us at Midway that would have really made a mess for the Americans in the Pacific i mean that would be it for our carriers. The Yorktown, Enterprize i think the Hornet. But all of out carriers in that time were. Uss Enterprize, Hornet, Lexington, Saratoga, Wasp, and the Yorktown. We did lose the Yorktown. But The japs lose a few too these are the japs carriers of that time. Akagi, Hiryu, Kaga, Rjuho, Tsuruisaki, Shokaku, Soryu, Zuikaku and what id the japs invaded hawii. The Germans pounding at the East coast and The Japs at the pacific.

bonehead

Aside from a handfull of uboats, germany had nothing to pound on the east coast with. Germany's best bet was to occupy England. This would have made an allied invasion of europe much more difficult. The united states had far more industrial might than Germany and Japan combined. There was also very little Germany or Japan could do about it. The loss of american carriers in the pacific could have been replaced. The war would have been longer, but the result would have been the same.
If Germany had attacked Russia in 1939 and made Russia surrender before attacking western europe, Germany may have been too strong to invade in the 1940's. If England was forced out as well, America may have thought differently about invading europe. Japan was doomed from the start. Pearl harbor would have been avenged at any cost.

Officer of Engineers

You should stop basing your theories on computer games.

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Chimo

TopHatter

Agreed. Once Japan made a "cowardly stabbed-us-in-the-back" sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, virtually all isolationism and pacifism in the United States melted away like a snowball in hell. There was not a thing in the world, short of an atomic attack (already pointed out) that could have stopped the United States from turning Home Islands into the parking lot that it became by 1945.
There could have been drastic setbacks, and the public was certainly appalled at the casualties at Betio and other islands, but by and large, it was going to be a fight to the death.
Ironically however, if the Japanese had not surrendered when they did, it's possible that Operation Downfall would have shared the spotlight with a typhoon. (Having just been through 4 hurricanes, I can assure you that they suck big time)

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Anon

"Pearl Harbour (the movie) is playing on TV as I type and that must have seemed like a good idea to the Japanese at the time. Perhaps if the aircraft carriers had been caught???"

Bingo.

The US carriers go down at Pearl, and the entire war in Pacific is written completely differently...at least until 1943. Had the US lost at Midway in 42, the entire US west coast would've been naked to a Japanese invasion.

Anon

Operation Downfall would've cost the Japanese anywhere between 10 and 25 million dead(along with a million plus estimated US/Allied dead).

They're better off having been nuked than to have had to face Downfall.

Anon

"The Japanese army was only a slightly more advanced version of a WWI army and it was all engaged in China."

While poorly armed by US standards, Japanese infantry and Marine forces were TREMENDOUSLY highly motivated, and generally well led.
They were also spread throughout the Pacific in huge numbers....they were NOT all in China as you state.

Thank god for the AVG though. Without the Tigers all of Asia could've been lost to the Japanese.

ZFBoxcar

I wasn't referring their motivation or leadership, only the technical aspects. And you're right, they were all over Asia, but were not the majority of their forces in China?

Anon

"but were not the majority of their forces in China?"

Perhaps, but there were still over a million of the "screaming yellow bastards" all over the pacific islands that the Marines and Army had to root out and kill one cave and bunker at a time.

Officer of Engineers

The Pacific War was mainly fought by the IJN. 75% of the IJA and 50% of the air force was in China. The Pacific Islands themselves tend to lend to a WWI type combat. There was virtually no manouver room. And the hilly terrain was a natural trench line.

lwarmonger

Germany's best chance to win was to beat the Soviet Union. If Germany could have defeated the Soviet Union during 1941-1943, then it is difficult to see how America could have launched a successful invasion of Europe with Germany's moblile forces not tied down elsewhere and their industrial capacity largely devoted to turning out aircraft (to beat Britian). Germany was quite far ahead of anyone else in terms of jet fighters and rockets, so had they defeated the SU, they would have most likely started turning out jet fighters in larger numbers (to end the American/British bombing raids). That would have negated America's nuclear advantage, as we would have had no means of delivering our atomic weapons. While I could not see a successful invasion of Britain by Germany during WWII even if they had beaten the Soviets, FDR's options would have been few at that point, and a negotiated peace the most probable outcome.

Japan was never any threat to the US mainland (they had a hard time supplying their forces in China, even if their army had been a match for our armor, supplying an invasion force on US soil would have been impossible), and once they attacked the United States they were finished.

TopHatter

Agreed. Also ironically, I read that the American introduction of various pharmaceuticals and certain sanitary practices lead to a huge jump in the Japanese life expectancy (I am NOT referring to personal cleanliness. The Japanese are probably the cleanest race on Earth)