Thread: Post WWI scenario with Central Powers victory?

Originally Posted by Ironduke

One of my favorite books

Of course, there are endless scenarios as to how the Central Powers would end up winning the war.

For example, the United States stays out of the war and cuts off trade with all belligerent parties. Any thoughts on how this would play out?

The US intervention into the war was not all that decisive. Had the US cut all trade with the UK - it would have seriously weakened the UK. It wouldnt have changed the fact that the UK still had a naval stranglehold on Germany and was still capable of moving resources by sea through the Empire.

Britain and France managed to break the "Spring Offensive". Without US troops - would they have? Probably (although not to underplay US heroism a Belleau Wood for example).

The difference would be that the allies would not be able to replace their manpower losses with American troops so both sides would be in the same situation.

Most likely result - the war ends in a negociated peace late 1918/19. Germany comes to the table after internal revolts/revolutions. Return to status quo of 1914 borders in France. Austria-Hungary collapses anyway, as does the Ottoman Empire.

No Treaty of Versailles - and probably no WWII either...

Originally Posted by Goatboy

I don't see a victorious Austria-Hungary collapsing actually. I see revolts in some areas perhaps. Neither do I see the Ottoman empire collapsing. The Ottoman empire would certainly gain territory at the expense of Southern Russia, and why wouldn't they? many of these areas are Turkic. The Brest-Litovsk treaty of course wouldn't be voided by allied victory in the west, so Russia would have shrunk, and become more homogeneous in it's ethnicity.

German colonies would be returned, and France would lose some of hers to Germany.

You misunderstand... no one would really be victorious - certainly not Austria-Hugary. AH was already tearing itself apart pre-war, the costs of the war would only have hastened this - especially with the "disease from the east" communism.

You obviously dont understand that the Ottoman Empire had been destroyed (more or less) by Allenby et al in the Mid East, they had been crushed already in Palestine and Syria and Iraq. If you think that being part of the Central Powers would have gained them an ounce at the negociating table after the war - even with a European stalemate - then you greatly overestimate the willingness of Germany to prop up a failed ally.

The periphal powers would have failed - they were always empires on borrowed time and the war simply hastened their demise...

Originally Posted by PubFather

You misunderstand... no one would really be victorious - certainly not Austria-Hugary. AH was already tearing itself apart pre-war, the costs of the war would only have hastened this - especially with the "disease from the east" communism.

You obviously dont understand that the Ottoman Empire had been destroyed (more or less) by Allenby et al in the Mid East, they had been crushed already in Palestine and Syria and Iraq. If you think that being part of the Central Powers would have gained them an ounce at the negociating table after the war - even with a European stalemate - then you greatly overestimate the willingness of Germany to prop up a failed ally.

Huh? IronDuke already set the premise of this thread which is: "Would anybody care to speculate what the world would look like if the Central Powers had defeated the Allies in WWI? Keep in mind, purely hypothetical."
So we've already established a victorious Central powers victory in this case, not a stalement. Of course what "kind" of victory it would be is definitely open to discussion, such as the obvious: France and Russia are defeated on land, but England is certainly territorially intact -- I'm thinking England wouldn't be prepared to make any concessions, pay any indemnity, etc.

So I think yes, the victorious Ottoman and AH empires had plenty of pull in negotiations and why wouldn't they? Would a victorious Germany let defeated France pour troops into Palestine? Would a victorious Germany abandon its allies AFTER their combined efforts defeated the Entente? Of course not. There's no way Austria-Hungary would have fallen apart in 1918 anyway, Later perhaps, but not right away.

Originally Posted by PubFather

The periphal powers would have failed - they were always empires on borrowed time and the war simply hastened their demise...

The Soviet Union was a huge multi-ethnic empire and weathered defeat -- (i.e. didn't split up into all it's little pieces) so what's so different about a victorious Austria-Hungary, (an entity which had existed for several hundred years -- im including Hapsburg administration of Austria here ) pulling through despite insurrection? What makes Austria-Hungary more difficult to hold together than all the many ethnicities in imperial Russia?

Originally Posted by Goatboy

Huh? IronDuke already set the premise of this thread which is: "Would anybody care to speculate what the world would look like if the Central Powers had defeated the Allies in WWI? Keep in mind, purely hypothetical."
So we've already established a victorious Central powers victory in this case, not a stalement. Of course what "kind" of victory it would be is definitely open to discussion, such as the obvious: France and Russia are defeated on land, but England is certainly territorially intact -- I'm thinking England wouldn't be prepared to make any concessions, pay any indemnity, etc.

I was actually responding to IronDuke's later suggestion of continued American neutrality leading to a Central Power victory.

Any victory for the Germans would have come at the start - so we would then need to think along the lines of the Schlieffen Plan actually working - and therefore France is largely defeated by the end of 1914 ala the Franco-Prussian war.

So I think yes, the victorious Ottoman and AH empires had plenty of pull in negotiations and why wouldn't they? Would a victorious Germany let defeated France pour troops into Palestine? Would a victorious Germany abandon its allies AFTER their combined efforts defeated the Entente? Of course not. There's no way Austria-Hungary would have fallen apart in 1918 anyway, Later perhaps, but not right away.

With an early victory - in 1914/15 possibly correct, but not in the circumstances I was talking about in my post.

The Soviet Union was a huge multi-ethnic empire and weathered defeat -- (i.e. didn't split up into all it's little pieces) so what's so different about a victorious Austria-Hungary, (an entity which had existed for several hundred years -- im including Hapsburg administration of Austria here ) pulling through despite insurrection? What makes Austria-Hungary more difficult to hold together than all the many ethnicities in imperial Russia?

Bad example. The Russian Empire did indeed fragment during the civil wars that followed WWI. It was pulled back together after a long period of hostility, huge casualities and then controlled by one of the most repressive regimes in the history of the world. Such as regime could have held Austria-Hungary together - but this was not on the horizon in 1914/15. The same holds true for the "sick man of Europe", the Ottoman Empire. With an early and successful close to the war - they would have persisted longer.

However, what I was talking about was a war ending circa 1918/19.

With regards to the "peace terms" of such a conflict ending in 1914/15 - I would imagine some limited French territorial losses, mostly colonial. Britain would not consider itself to be defeated and so would more likely negociate a ceasefire, leading to a peace treaty - rather than a full blown surrender.
Russia would probably face a watered down version of Brest-Litovsk - depending on how great the German advances had been after the defeat of France. Russia would - in all likelyhood - have come to table after the defeat of France.

Longterm - the stage would have been set for quite a different WWII. There would have been less pressure for disarmament, certainly in the UK and probably in Russia also (France, would likely be restricted from full rearmament for some years after the war). The arms races - naval and otherwise would have continued. Proxy wars in the Mid East and Balkaans also seem likely.
The other possibility is greater British-German cooperation - especially if Russia did suffer a communist revolution, or perhaps its own version of facism.
Russia was still the real bete noir for Germany, and a strong Russia threatened the British Empire far more than than Germany.