What if 1973 Israel was dropped back to June 1940?

**astralis** · 13 Oct 10,, 15:48

an interesting discussion/thought experiment i'm having on an e-mail list (SM Stirling list) involves dropping 1973 israel (on the eve of the yom-kippur war) into early june 1940, just as germany was taking down france.

what could/would the israelis do? what would be its impact against the germans, the russians, the brits, the french (no Allies yet), the US?

i'd like to hear some WAB opinion before i go further into a few conclusions as to what the israelis could and could not do at the time.

**Pakmiran** · 13 Oct 10,, 15:57

Gah, did they have F-16's yet? Cause there's that picture of Israeli planes doing a flight over Auschwitz in modern times. I imagine they'd be doing something quite similar, only loaded for bear.

**astralis** · 13 Oct 10,, 16:03

no, production only started in 1976. one thing to consider is that israel has fairly short "legs" (range) in this period.

**bigross86** · 13 Oct 10,, 16:05

Israel had F-4 Phantoms and A-4 Skyhawks, as well as French Mirages and Israeli Kfir jets.

Astralis, is Israel under the same threat, i.e., are Syria and Egypt going to invade in 24 hours anyway?

Does Israel retain it's modern warfare capabilities while the rest of the world remains in 1940, or is all of Israel's technological advantages also reduced to 1940's era? In some instances like the Battle of Latakia, that could make a very large difference.

Something that needs looking at, in 1973 Israel was right up against the Suez Canal, and could have done a lot to interdict German shipping in the canal, therefore perhaps affecting some of the warfare in Africa. The North African campaign started June 10, 1940, right at the date you said Israel gets launched back into. This could give Monty a large base of support in Israel, and offer him the entire Sinai desert for training, maneuvering, or what have you. Remember that despite the British Mandate in Palestine, the Jews still volunteered and fought for the Brits in WWII with some measure of success.

**astralis** · 13 Oct 10,, 16:11

BR,

in this scenario israel is transplanted back with all its 1973 technology and with its 1973 borders.

everything else remains 1940, including syria and egypt, which IIRC exist as french/british "protectorates".

there's also the question of persuading the british you're the good guys. also, what to do about the impending holocaust? it's also hard to say "nuke everything german" because israel's only got so many nukes and so much range.

**Mihais** · 13 Oct 10,, 16:33

There will be no Holocaust.Just a mass deportation or voluntary moves.Wit the tech of 1973 Israel is a hyperpower.It can get control of the entire MidEast in weeks.One should not expect them to sit idle.

**astralis** · 13 Oct 10,, 16:43

mihais,

There will be no Holocaust

depends on israeli actions. ironically, if israel just ups and nukes germany in 1940 there's the very real chance of turning every german into a determined nazi, speeding up the holocaust.

also, while israel can get control of pretty much the entire ME, in the 1940s it's not crucial to either side's war effort. however, seizing a few choice oil fields and eliminating the wahabis can pretty much guarantee israel's continued hyperpowerdom for a long time to come.

**bigross86** · 13 Oct 10,, 16:56

If the Egyptian attack is going to take place anyway, then first of all, this means that Israel is going to need to devote tanks and aircraft to repel the attacks, but not as many, due to the disparity in strength and technology.

Convincing the Brits should not be a problem. There was a Jewish Brigade formed in 1944, when the Brits needed the manpower. If they see the power that Israel has (in essence, Israel is the regional power, if not superpower), the Brits would want to court Israel, especially since they wouldn't want a country with jet fighters and advanced MBT's against them.

You have to wonder, how well would an M46/M60 or a Centurion stand up against a Tiger or Panzer.

As for the impending Holocaust, once you've convinced the British that you're on their side, you use British fields for your aircraft. Israel has 707 tanker support, and even without missiles, just using 20mm cannon and RADAR you still have a very distinct aerial advantage. Once they've helped win the BoB, you use British airfields to attack German targets.

**astralis** · 13 Oct 10,, 17:28

BR,

good comments.

If the Egyptian attack is going to take place anyway, then first of all, this means that Israel is going to need to devote tanks and aircraft to repel the attacks, but not as many, due to the disparity in strength and technology.

no egyptian attack; egypt is a british protectorate. ie JUST israel has moved to the brave new world of 1940.

Convincing the Brits should not be a problem.

i think so too. israel would have to refrain from nuking berlin the second it gets, though-- 1940 is not the same as 1945, and a small attack on coventry was seen as a horror to humanity.

You have to wonder, how well would an M46/M60 or a Centurion stand up against a Tiger or Panzer.

yeah, it'd be a great sight, wouldn't it? but if i were israel i wouldn't do it; i'm not sure if israel had the manufacturing capability to produce more of the same from scratch. every weapon you lose in combat is one irretrievably lost. much better yet to give a few older tanks to the brits or the americans; did israel have M48s still warehoused back then? a m48 could STILL dust a tiger or panther with little problem, if not utterly crush it the way a centurion would. the technology wouldn't be hard to adapt and the brits/americans would have thousands rolling out in short time.

same with jets, give the americans or brits the blueprint for a F-86 saber and bye bye luftwaffle.

As for the impending Holocaust, once you've convinced the British that you're on their side, you use British fields for your aircraft.

the problem is how to get all the jews out of the greater german reich then. the death camps hadn't started in earnest yet, and they're spread all over germany. hitler could deny, too, that he was ever gonna massacre them all ("these lies are from a DIFFERENT future!"). and i suspect the british wouldn't care much, saving the jews were always a secondary priority in the war to defeating the jerries. the americans thought the same too, but to a lesser extent.

my own plan would be to nuke wilhelmshaven, the big port of the german navy. that takes away the main british fear of a landing, AND warns the german army that it too could be annihilated if they didn't take action against the nazis. it also doesn't kill a horrendous amount of people, hardening the germans.

then i'd warn the germans to 1. get rid of the nazis, 2. go back to 1933 borders, 3. let all the jews go, or else one german city is going to disappear every week/month. it's a bluff, but it worked well for the americans in 1945 (and it's not as big a bluff).

the irony is that the world is still going to suck for the israelis-- you'll have a much more sane and weakened germany, but one that'll probably be very hostile to israel for a long, long time. there's going to be much worse arms proliferation this time around as america won't set policy for a largely flattened world.

absent israel deciding to "do something" about the russians, the russians are going to be a LOT stronger. wonder what the japanese are going to do, especially once they find out how their lovely Pacific War went in our time line. the israelis are going to have to play a superpower role, but the problem is her population is too small (even with the mass influx of european jews) to make her a real superpower in the long-term. and her technological advantage shrinks with every passing year. israel's got maybe 5, at most 10-15 years to pretty much dictate what it wants in the world before the other powers are strong enough to push back. so, what would this Greater Israel look like?

**Mihais** · 13 Oct 10,, 17:47

You're all assuming that Israel will be on the Franco-British side.But who guarantees that these 2 will like an Israeli domination of the MidEast and the power to intervene decisively in Europe.The whole balance of power will be different and the conflict of interests between European powers might be superceded by the rivalry/mistrust with Israel.
Israeli use of its power(or just the threat) might fuel a shift of the entire continent along German ideology.Britain itself might be interested in eliminating the threat to its empire.Remember that the dominant power in the Mid East(the Suea especially)also rules India and the Far East.

**Wooglin** · 13 Oct 10,, 18:02

Originally Posted by astralis

BR,

in this scenario israel is transplanted back with all its 1973 technology and with its 1973 borders.

everything else remains 1940, including syria and egypt, which IIRC exist as french/british "protectorates".

there's also the question of persuading the british you're the good guys. also, what to do about the impending holocaust? it's also hard to say "nuke everything german" because israel's only got so many nukes and so much range.

Invade Saudi Arabia

**bigross86** · 13 Oct 10,, 18:09

That's exactly what I was thinking. Instead of focusing on Europe, go East. Capture enough of the oil fields in Iraq/Iran/Saudi/UAE, etc... you can pretty much dictate who does what. Sure, the US has reserves in Alaska and Texas, and in Europe there are oil fields in Czechoslovakia (I think), but if you control enough of the oil, you rule everything.

The Japanese were pissed off because the US stopped selling them oil. Circumvent the US. The IJN would have no realistic way of attacking Israel, and even a WWII carrier would still be vulnerable to an LGB salvo or two from a couple F-4's.

Astralis, short correction, Israel didn't have F-86's.

**Mihais** · 13 Oct 10,, 18:32

Thanks God,we had no such thing as oil

btw,IIRC the oilfields in KSA became a big hoopla only after the war.So in 1940 you'd invade and control(more or less) a lot of sand.

**astralis** · 13 Oct 10,, 18:37

BR,

That's exactly what I was thinking. Instead of focusing on Europe, go East. Capture enough of the oil fields in Iraq/Iran/Saudi/UAE, etc... you can pretty much dictate who does what.

not sure why it has to be one or another. going east in the 1940 timeframe requires pretty minimal resources. although i'd negotiate with the british vice just gobbling everything up (the easier path), because the way israel goes about it matters -a lot- to how she will be treated post-war.

ie iraq and saudi arabia and iran can be seized very easily from the british, but do so and that guarantees british emnity after the war is over, as well as american emnity (especially after they find out the extent of the oil fields from reading the "history"). the russians will probably try to gun for israel in iran, too. not a problem for israel in 1940 but wait 20-30 years when the technology is largely caught up, and israel's gonna have problems.

better to do an easy trade, ie "give us 50/50 oil rights to iraq/saudi arabia, we'll give you a few m48s to build on, plus we'll help make sure you're not ingloriously kicked out of the ME as was the case in on our timeline". besides, israel and british goals would actually be somewhat aligned-- neither wants to see the rise of arab nationalism, especially nazi-sympathetic arab nationalism. the UK might actually think it's getting a good deal in the process because they don't know (yet) the extent of oil in the ME.

finally, ME oil only started figuring on the world stage by the early-mid 60s.

Astralis, short correction, Israel didn't have F-86's.

sure, but they oughta have blueprints or an old '50s jet stashed away somewhere.

**astralis** · 13 Oct 10,, 18:41

by the way, BR,

how do you think israelis, especially israelis of your father's generation, would handle all this? would all this ME land turn into a "Greater Israel" or would they be protectorates? if it were israel of today i'd say the latter, but i'm not sure if this would be true for 1973 israel.

the funny thing is that were this to happen, all the anti-semites of the world would probably be screeching at the top of their lungs, "see, we told you so! jews control the world's oil supply, and they massacre people with their ungodly jew science!" especially if israeli nukes started flying...