What if Nixon Succeeded

**Deltacamelately** · 07 Feb 13,, 10:24

Gentlemen, many of my course mates have discussed this and its indeed an intriguing scenario.

What if Nixon was successful in convincing/coercing the Chinese to open the southern theatre with India in 1971, atleast 15 days before East Pakistan collapsed? How would that shape the course of the war? Would Bangladesh still come into existence?

I would like your individual analysis on this.

Regards,

**Officer of Engineers** · 07 Feb 13,, 14:05

Originally Posted by Deltacamelately

Gentlemen, many of my course mates have discussed this and its indeed an intriguing scenario.

What if Nixon was successful in convincing/coercing the Chinese to open the southern theatre with India in 1971, atleast 15 days before East Pakistan collapsed? How would that shape the course of the war? Would Bangladesh still come into existence?

I would like your individual analysis on this.

Regards,

An open invitation to the Soviet 58th Army into Lop Nor.

**Mihais** · 07 Feb 13,, 14:28

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

An open invitation to the Soviet 58th Army into Lop Nor.

Sir,aren't VDV divisions and Soviet AF in India enough?To heck with PakAF,the Russians,can level their air bases before they notice there's a war around.

**Officer of Engineers** · 07 Feb 13,, 14:32

In 1971-1973, the Soviets were on a hair trigger to march in Lop Nor. It would take time for both armies to re-orient themselves to the Indian Front. Heck, it would take the Chinese 38th and 39th Group Armies two weeks just to get there. So, without a major re-orientation, the Soviets would be poised to take Lop Nor against a weakened Chinese defence.

**Mihais** · 07 Feb 13,, 14:40

But would they still want to move the 38&39 GA's knowing they'll face Soviet troops in India?The VDV is the strategic reserve and they had contingency plans for such a deployment.Does not affect Soviet troops in Far East or Central Asia,much.

**Doktor** · 07 Feb 13,, 14:41

Chinese and Pakistan in war with India, where one are US ally and the others will intervene on US push - where does this place the USN?

**Officer of Engineers** · 07 Feb 13,, 14:45

Originally Posted by Mihais

But would they still want to move the 38&39 GA's knowing they'll face Soviet troops in India?The VDV is the strategic reserve and they had contingency plans for such a deployment.Does not affect Soviet troops in Far East or Central Asia,much.

The 38 and 39GAs are the only formations of note. Any other army would face defeat.

**Mihais** · 07 Feb 13,, 14:54

So the real choice for the Chinese is if they lose Lop Nor to the 58th or die in India at the hands of the 100's series of Guards Abn Div's(plus the Indians and the Soviet AF).

**Officer of Engineers** · 07 Feb 13,, 14:57

Or both. Lop Nor without the 38 and 39 is a real tempting target for an army on a hair trigger.

**Firestorm** · 07 Feb 13,, 15:04

I don't think the Soviets would send their troops and aircraft to India. They don't really need to. Their purpose is served by opening a second front against the Chinese (which is much easier since the Soviets already have their troops there), which would force the Chinese to withdraw from the southern theater. If they are able to capture Chinese territory in the bargain, that is a bonus. The Chinese knew this, so Nixon's attempt never really had a chance.

The Major's question becomes more interesting if we assume that the Soviets aren't in the picture and concentrate on the southern theater. What would the Chinese do? Would they send their troops into East Pakistan to reinforce Niazi? The IAF did a number on East Pak airfields within two days of the war starting. So the Chinese would have had to rely on their own airfields for air support. Or would the Chinese start another front in Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh forcing the IA into an untenable three-front war.?

**Mihais** · 07 Feb 13,, 15:10

Originally Posted by Firestorm

I don't think the Soviets would send their troops and aircraft to India. They don't really need to. Their purpose is served by opening a second front against the Chinese (which is much easier since the Soviets already have their troops there), which would force the Chinese to withdraw from the southern theater. If they are able to capture Chinese territory in the bargain, that is a bonus. The Chinese knew this, so Nixon's attempt never really had a chance.

Soviet Abn's were put on alert.Officers were informed about a possible deployment to India.
If the ex-Soviet Abn. Major who told me that lied,so do I.The man was fresh from the officers school at the time.

**Firestorm** · 07 Feb 13,, 15:11

Originally Posted by Mihais

Soviet Abn's were put on alert.Officers were informed about a possible deployment to India.
If the ex-Soviet Abn. Major who told me that lied,so do I.The man was fresh from the officers school at the time.

Well I wasn't aware of this of course. It is surprising. Anyway, I edited my post to include a different scenario.

**Skywatcher** · 07 Feb 13,, 15:58

What could Nixon give Mao that would persuade the PLA to march south?

**DOR** · 07 Feb 13,, 18:13

Originally Posted by Skywatcher

What could Nixon give Mao that would persuade the PLA to march south?

More to the point, why in the world would the US want China in a shooting war with India? There is no strategic national interest served by such action.

However, I recognize that this is a "what if" scenario, not an alternative history.

**Firestorm** · 07 Feb 13,, 19:24

Originally Posted by DOR

More to the point, why in the world would the US want China in a shooting war with India? There is no strategic national interest served by such action.

However, I recognize that this is a "what if" scenario, not an alternative history.

This is 1971 we are talking about. US's interest was in preventing the breakup of their ally Pakistan into two parts. Nixon wanted to push China into attacking India so that India would lose the war and Pakistan would stay intact.