If Syrian and Iraqi Kurds seek a state Turkey will invade which poses huge problems for the US and Iran.Think about it this way the country goes into an uprising spiral the army is still holding up and the Alawites push for an exit plan. Ergo complete fracture and independence of the Alawite state as it was under the French. Most of good military equipment is shifted and natural border is set up at the mountains. In addition other minorities are given the same option. Druze etc...
Assad goes along with it by becoming king of the new state... and Syria fractures loosing sea access and going into full scale civil war. There is some ethnic push from one area to another similar to Turkey/Greece post 1900s.
Intervention occurs by Turkey into Northern Areas and SHTF, with Kurds in Al-Hasakah Governorate declaring a state as well after being armed by Alawites prior to the fracture. Post fracture they would attempt to join with Iraqi Kurdistan which sends reinforcements to enforce the new border.
Anything else I am not thinking about is welcome. Please contribute how else this could come about and what else could go wrong.