Communist German/Soviet Pact against Allies in 1939

**Mihais** · 02 Apr 12,, 21:44

Here a thing,from real history,somewhat less known.When Germany invaded Poland it all went as everybody knows in the beggining.Poland had a large merchant fleet and a lil' geographical feature called Romanian Bridgehead.There's a rail from Constanta to S-E Poland and in this area many depots,regeneration assets etc... were located in peacetime.There's a logic in this.It's the most secure region in front of a German attack.So the merchant fleet brings Western supplies to Romania,than to S-E Poland and the result is that Germany suffers the fate of 1918.In theory and before the war.What the Germans did at the start of the campaign certainly sucked big time,but for the Poles the situation was not hopeless even with the loss of Warsaw and the industrial base.They had reserves,they had defensible terrain,they had the possibility to be ressuplied and the hope of a French offensive to ease the pressure.What really turned things upside down was the Soviet offense.That fvucked Rydz-Smigly's mind and he ordered the evacuation of everything able to move into Hungary and Romania.But before that happened,the Polish army engaged the Soviets a few times.Vastly outnumbered,and with barely reconstituted units they wiped the floor with the Red Army wherever they met them.So the evacuation may have been premature,but given the circumstances somewhat understandable.

Also,as you know,a lot of German tanks,particularly PzI&II were lost during the Polish campaign.

The point of the argument is to show that absent Wehrmacht level competence a campaign by commie Germany vs. Poland is likely to turn into a slugfest.Absent the conquest of Czechoslovakia(and the addition of Czech tanks&artillery),the need to guard the western border and the correlation of forces gets ugly for the red Germans.

Then there is the probable Italian expeditionary force,likely to include in the first wave the Alpini Corp,Ariete and Littorio divisions,which were good units.There is the possibility that Hungary(~15 divisions)joins the Allies as well as the 30 Romanian ones.

So even the Soviets can be halted.The Germans can even be beaten,depending on how good the Czech and Polish Generals are(or more rightly,how bad the commie Germans are).And France,elgium and Netherlands are still to move,while UK sips tea in the meantime.But if they clear the Baltic,BEF can land at Danzig,Denmark or play other funny games with the Germans.

**1979** · 02 Apr 12,, 22:53

Originally Posted by Mihais

They had reserves,they had defensible terrain,they had the possibility to be ressuplied and the hope of a French offensive to ease the pressure.

nope ,the possibly of resupply fell at the same time as Lvov (all rails towards Romania pased trough that city or Tarnopol but that one fell even sooner )

**Mihais** · 02 Apr 12,, 23:02

May I ask to whom said railroad junctions fell?

**1979** · 03 Apr 12,, 06:59

Originally Posted by Mihais

May I ask to whom said railroad junctions fell?

they fell to the soviets but for argument sake lets assume that the Germans are still busy in Czechoslovakia and Poland manage to keep the door from slamming shut .
what kind of supplies could the Wallies send?

**zraver** · 03 Apr 12,, 18:01

Originally Posted by 1979

they fell to the soviets but for argument sake lets assume that the Germans are still busy in Czechoslovakia and Poland manage to keep the door from slamming shut .
what kind of supplies could the Wallies send?

More H39 and R35 tanks. France also has 44 H35 (older version of the H39) in depot storage, M.S 406 fighters, artillery, ammunition etc. France doesn't have enar the excess capacity of the US, but she can send some stuff.

Tank in particular would be the biggest benefit. Whether WWII (real) Pz I and II or this scenarios modified T-26's and BT tanks the French tanks were superior in every way. The German advantage of a 3 man turret wasn't present in the pz 1 and II's or the Soviet designs.

Italy could send M 11/39's not a very good tank, but better than a tankette. Italy could also supply tankettes and biplane fighters as well as bombers.

The problem is the Soviet invasion is likely to be larger than it was historically. With an obvious need to move troops to Germany to take on the imperialist West the GUSR blitz of Poland for all the tanks and dive bombers and spectacle is likely as not a diversion to pull troops away from the Soviet border. Despite claism to the contrary the Poles did not wipe the floor with the Soviets but were steadily pushed back and Poland took more casualties than the Soviets did. With an invasion of close to 40 divisions worth of troops the Soviets hit Poland with nearly twice the Poles establishment strength.

Poland is effectively doomed. Even with lower performing officers things like the fact all the German tanks are cannon armed and the hammer and anvil nature of the double invasion leave no doubt as to the out come. The Czechs on the hand are a different matter. They to have plentiful cannon armed tanks. If not for the Austrian flank they could hold out for ever. But Austria flanks them and once Poland falls they are surrounded on 3 sides by the Germans who now have Soviet support on the former Polish border.

Romania and Hungary are very much in doubt, a quick fall of Poland will likely make the Romanian and Hungarian governments extremely flexible to the new order as it did in 1939. Bulgaria is already a Russian ally in spirit and with Germany and the Soviets on the same side Bulgaria will happily join with them which creates a Greek front or potentially does.

**Mihais** · 03 Apr 12,, 18:59

And that's the key problem:time.Without the Blitzkrieg(Guderian is no more) Poland can hold a longer time.

The 20 Czech divisions can keep at least 15 German divisions tied.That still makes possible Czech reinforcements into Poland proper.
Also Romania had a mutual defense pact with Poland that wasn't activated at Poland's request historically.If the Soviets move in strength from the start as is in this scenario the pact will be activated.So you can count 40-50 Soviet divisions and brigades out.If Mussolini is active in Hungary pre-war,it is likely the Hungarians are also in an Italian inspired Anti-Commie pact.Hungary was in any case very sympathetic to Poland.If that happens Yugoslavia can be persuaded to allow Italian troops to pass East.Btw,the Anschluss is a tricky thing with a commie Germany.

So,what we're very likely to have is this.~40 Polish divisions &Bde's fighting initially against 35-40 German divisions and 60-70 Soviet.Czech,Hungarian and Italian mobile units can be in theater relatively fast,the rest a bit later.Against Soviet army of 1939,Poland can hold for a longer period than historically the case.And after 6 weeks,the French,Dutch and Belgians are likely to do something in the West to draw the Germans.And,even if Polish ground is taken,Polish army can still keep an area,likely near Slovak and Hungarian borders.The Soviets and the Germans will still be tied,even if they manage to join and they still have to attack against defenses in the mountains.Let's say they spend 3 months in Poland.Winter just came.

There is another aspect,regarding politics.You won't have the surprise offered by the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.You'll have mobilization in due time.

**1979** · 03 Apr 12,, 19:21

I find it odd that you consider the french tanks superior in every way, they score particularly bad in terms of mobility and firepower.

**Mihais** · 03 Apr 12,, 19:30

T-26 is the criteria here,if I read Z right.

**1979** · 03 Apr 12,, 19:44

Romania rearmed the r-35 tanks with soviet 45 mm guns , the canon was that bad.
both t-26 and r-35 are what the British called" infantry tanks " ie slow.

**Mihais** · 03 Apr 12,, 20:27

Yep,but nevertheless both were fairly adequate for the time in question,1939.Obviously the war will take a long time and the developments,upgrades etc...are hard to predict.Soviet have an intact industrial base,so may produce a larger number of T34's when they eventually finalize the design.On the other hand you have the Czech industrial base,the French and the rest adapting to T28 and T34,not Pz4,Panther etc... Germans tried to supplant quality for quantity,now you have allies having to adapt to T34 in large numbers.The posibilities are endless.

**zraver** · 03 Apr 12,, 23:32

Originally Posted by 1979

I find it odd that you consider the french tanks superior in every way, they score particularly bad in terms of mobility and firepower.

Uhm no they don't, not compared to the T-26. The un-up armored T-26 had a max off road speed of 9mph and armor maxing at 15mm. The 45mm gun was good, it could punch a pz II at over 1000m. Soviet optics were at best mediocre and Soviet maintenance crews were thin on the ground due to a lack of a technical base which also limited field innovations.

The French R-39 had 3x the armor and the SA-18 37mm gun while not an AT gun could defeat the armor of the T-26 and BT series. In 1939 the Char B1bis was superior to anything else in the world but the few KV tanks. It har armor all but immune to German and Soviet guns, its own gun could defeat them at range. France had over 150 of them in service in 1939.

**zraver** · 03 Apr 12,, 23:54

Originally Posted by Mihais

And that's the key problem:time.Without the Blitzkrieg(Guderian is no more) Poland can hold a longer time.[/qute]

The lack of Guderian doesn't automatically mean the lack of blitzkrieg which was as much a function of need as a product of inspiration.

The 20 Czech divisions can keep at least 15 German divisions tied.That still makes possible Czech reinforcements into Poland proper.

The czechs are tied up guarding the Austrian border, no mini-maginot there.

Also Romania had a mutual defense pact with Poland that wasn't activated at Poland's request historically.If the Soviets move in strength from the start as is in this scenario the pact will be activated.So you can count 40-50 Soviet divisions and brigades out.

How do you figure since those Soviet division hit Poland, not the Czechs who do not have a border with the Soviet Union.

If Mussolini is active in Hungary pre-war,it is likely the Hungarians are also in an Italian inspired Anti-Commie pact.Hungary was in any case very sympathetic to Poland.

Hungary is by far the best bet for an active ally in the East, Romania and Bulgaria are not and the Yugoslavs are at best a maybe. They are close to the French but have major issues with Italy.

If that happens Yugoslavia can be persuaded to allow Italian troops to pass East.Btw,the Anschluss is a tricky thing with a commie Germany.

Yugoslavia will not let Italian troops pass through. Italy and Yugoslavia were near to war over Albania. If Italy sends troops it will be via Greece and then Romania.

So,what we're very likely to have is this.~40 Polish divisions &Bde's fighting initially against 35-40 German divisions and 60-70

Poland can put about 33 divisions worth of troops in the field to face 19 German mobile units and and a Soviet force of around 50 divisions.

The Czechs have 30ish divisions which will tie up an equal number of German units but if Poland Collapses, Czech troop density goes down just as the forces arrayed against it go up. Even sending the tank units to Poland won't save Poland, although they may save part of the Polish army.

Germany has about a dozen field divisions and its fortress troops to face France relying on French timidity and slow mobilization. France wont move without the BEF regardless so pre-war commie German sub building offers some real ways to slow this down.

Soviet.Czech,Hungarian and Italian mobile units can be in theater relatively fast,the rest a bit later.Against Soviet army of 1939,Poland can hold for a longer period than historically the case.And after 6 weeks,the French,Dutch and Belgians are likely to do something in the West to draw the Germans.And,even if Polish ground is taken,Polish army can still keep an area,likely near Slovak and Hungarian borders.The Soviets and the Germans will still be tied,even if they manage to join and they still have to attack against defenses in the mountains.Let's say they spend 3 months in Poland.Winter just came.

Hungarians are out unless Czechs want to hand over Ruthenia. Hell Hungary may play its own game to gain back Ruthenia and if Romania jumps in Transylvania

There is another aspect,regarding politics.You won't have the surprise offered by the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.You'll have mobilization in due time.

Balanced by the utter chaos of French communists acting as a 5th column and throwing general strikes.

**1979** · 06 Apr 12,, 20:27

Originally Posted by zraver

Uhm no they don't, not compared to the T-26. The un-up armored T-26 had a max off road speed of 9mph and armor maxing at 15mm. The 45mm gun was good, it could punch a pz II at over 1000m. Soviet optics were at best mediocre and Soviet maintenance crews were thin on the ground due to a lack of a technical base which also limited field innovations.

The French R-39 had 3x the armor and the SA-18 37mm gun while not an AT gun could defeat the armor of the T-26 and BT series. In 1939 the Char B1bis was superior to anything else in the world but the few KV tanks. It har armor all but immune to German and Soviet guns, its own gun could defeat them at range. France had over 150 of them in service in 1939.

and 7.5 mph for r-35 , so while it scores better in protection it's mobility and firepower it's not superior .
wrt to b-1 bis, the t-28 model 1939 tank has a gun capable of dealing with the b-1.

**1979** · 07 Apr 12,, 08:47

Originally Posted by Mihais

And that's the key problem:time.Without the Blitzkrieg(Guderian is no more) Poland can hold a longer time.

the tank divisions were split among army corps in poland and not given
any independent operational objectives as opposed to the french campaign.

Originally Posted by Mihais

Also Romania had a mutual defense pact with Poland that wasn't activated at Poland's request historically.If the Soviets move in strength from the start as is in this scenario the pact will be activated.So you can count 40-50 Soviet divisions and brigades out.

Romania's leadership at that time lacked to guts the put up a fight for our lands, but now it would do it over POLAND ?

**1979** · 07 Apr 12,, 09:56

Originally Posted by zraver

So a GUSR army of 60 divisions plus fortress troops (1/3ish the size of the USSR) is reasonable. Although Stalin is likely to limit reserve formations to prevent a German surge. This gives the German communists the single biggest military in Western Europe, big enough to beat any two comers in fact, but not big enough to threaten Moscow's control.

The size limit imposed by Moscow is one reason the communist may go down roughly similar lines as the historical WWII German military with its focus on panzers and mechanized divisions. So 7 big panzer divisions, 3 light panzer divisions, 5 motorized divisions, 1 mountain division and 3 cavalry divisions plus 39 infantry divisions and 2 fortress divisions. This gives Germany 1 one division lead in mobile assets, although the German tanks are concentrated unlike the allies. The allied advantage is infantry, but facing Germany on three sides no one power is bigger. Plus the Czechs, who before the fall of Austria could likely have fended off Germany forever have now been outflanked.

I agree with the overall number but not with the force composition .
the equipment that went into the additional 40 inf divisions Germany had in real timeline is enough to fully mechanize another 12 inf div and add more firepower to the existing ones.
my take :
10 panzer, 20 motorized, 4 mountain, 26 infantry (all from first welle ).

there were plans after the fall of France to keep a peace army of:
20 panzer, 10 motorized, 6 mountain, 26 infantry, 23 corps HQ, 10 army HQ,
But there were canceled in July 1940.