Thread: Cold War: Breach of the Fulda Gap Scenario

Clancy's RED STORM RISING probably got the initial air war correct from the allied side. NATO would do everything possible in the initial hours of a Soviet assault to drop the Oder and Vistula bridges.

Each ground echelon commander from company up to army group had areas of influence and areas of interest defined in both space and time. Area of influence was further defined by the maximum range of your organic weapons (to include indirect fires and army aviation). Area of interest was defined by the maximum range of your detection capabilities. Seeing deep into your area of interest determined your ability to act decisively within your area of influence.

OTOH, I don't sense concurrence on what era is engaged. By even 1990, Soviet forces would face decisive overmatch both technically and tactically from the operational level downward. It'd been a non-starter simply given that era of equipment and relative levels of training.

In fact, by even 1985 the window had largely closed on a Soviet conventional assault of western Europe.

Originally Posted by S2

In fact, by even 1985 the window had largely closed on a Soviet conventional assault of western Europe.

Hell, by 1985, the Soviets had changed their battle plans. What they saw scared them. 50+ NATO divisions packed tight into the East-West German border with no defence-in-depth and a stated first nuclear use doctrine. Their battle plan was to retreat to the Polish-German border luring NATO into East Germany before beginning a massive counter-attack.

The actual war would look pretty stupid with both sides sitting on their side of border waiting for the other to attack - a you first strategy.

The US Navy would be fighting to keep the Atlantic sea bridge open. Lots of Soviet subs to deal with. Also the 6th Fleet is fighting in the Med against Black Seas fleet if it tries to sortie. US and British subs are launching Tomahawks and trying to sink all Soviet boomers and attack subs. Carriers are keeping the Backfires off of the merchant ships.

the German second corps looks a bit over-tasked, if push comes to shove they would be fighting outnumbered 3 to 1 from the get go.
what exactly was expected from them ?

They're on the defensive with built up defences and fall back positions and standard attacker-to-defence ratio is 3 to 1, so the fight is about even.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

Hell, by 1985, the Soviets had changed their battle plans. What they saw scared them. 50+ NATO divisions packed tight into the East-West German border with no defence-in-depth and a stated first nuclear use doctrine. Their battle plan was to retreat to the Polish-German border luring NATO into East Germany before beginning a massive counter-attack.

The actual war would look pretty stupid with both sides sitting on their side of border waiting for the other to attack - a you first strategy.

Then it means that the Soviets and NATO are waiting for who wins on the North Atlantic ocean front. I surmise that the best bet is to take over Iceland and cut off all sea reinforcements and isolate Britain and mainland Europe from America. Once that happens, I am sure both parties would go back to the table and negotiate to a ceasefire with some concessions. If the Soviets doesn't manage to get Iceland, then the Soviets would be on a defensive posture and ceding the offensive momentum to NATO.

Originally Posted by 1979

the German second corps looks a bit over-tasked, if push comes to shove they would be fighting outnumbered 3 to 1 from the get go.

II (GE) Corps would have been reinforced in the West by II (FR) Corps, as well as VerfTrKdo 45. About six divisions total hunkering down behind a man-made river defense line.

Originally Posted by kato

II (GE) Corps would have been reinforced in the West by II (FR) Corps, as well as VerfTrKdo 45. About six divisions total hunkering down behind a man-made river defense line.

which is where ? iirc the isn't any major river obstacle all the way to Nuremberg.

79

the Oder has ~ 50 bridges (1/3 of them rail ), if the scenario is 1970 i would simply nuke them , is a lot harder to rebuild them when wearing NBC suits.

A bridge isn't worth 50 million lives, a nuclear release is a nuclear release.

[quote]

Originally Posted by Doktor

Bridges connect two banks of one river. If Soviets can't go or will be delayed, so will be NATO in counteroffensive.

NATO didn't want to drive into and through Poland, non-starter.

I seriously doubt any commander would start such an operation without stocking enough supplies and troops to survive the delay from possible cutout.

Dok, below is why they say ameutuers study tactics and professionals study logistics.

In the 1970's the average Soviet tank division (TD) had 2300 major equipment items and 8,000 men and the motor rifle division (MRD) 2400 major items and 10,000 men. However due to call up periods most Soviet divisions would never be more than 75% trained and many were chronically short on manpower, probably deliberate. Most of the manpower shortages were in CSS and SS units which creates problems when the red wine flows for true.

Soviet div arty regiment :18 x152mm, 36x 122mm, 4x FROG launchers (16 total missiles), 6x BM-21, 12x BM-24 and 12x BM-14 MLRS total major item count 210. The rocket artillery (non-FROG) has 20 5mt cargo trucks with 5mt trailers for 100 tons of organic supply)

Divisional supplies on hand per doctrine 3-5 days of fuel and 2.5 days of ammo on the attack or 2 on the defensive. POL and ammunition stocks were kept pre-loaded on trucks. each tank division had 328,000 gallons of fuel on hand (508,000 with on board fuel. A motor rifle division had 297,000 gallons on hand (451,000 gallons with on board fuel). The tank division has 1375mt on ammunition loaded on trucks, the MRD has 1060mt.

Soviet Div AT 18x 100mm ATG with 70 total major items

Soviet regimental artillery 18x 120m mortar, 6x 122mm howitzer
Regimental AAA (infantry) 8x zsu-23-4 and 6x zpu-4
Regimental AAA (tank) 8x zsu-23-4, 4x zsu-57-2
Tank regiment 271-336 major items
Motor rifle regiment 309 to 345 major items
artillery regiment 207 major items
FROG battalion 26 major items
Engineer battalion 135 major items
AAA regiment 162 major items
recon battalion 60 major items
MLRS battalion 150 major items
Division motor transport 460+ major items

Do the math... Just the stuff already in Germany equals2400 vehicles with roughly 470,000 gallons of fuel and 1150 tons of ammo x 18 organic divisions and half a dozen divisions worth of supporting assets plus massive tac air forces. The ground forces alone need 11,280,000 gallons of fuel every 4 days. That is 35,000 tons of fuel every 4 days. In the same period they will also need 55,000 tons of ammunition if heavily engaged and 9000 tons of other supplies. Thats 99,000 tons of supplies every 4 days. Plus to keep manpower levels up you have to be shoving troops into the meet grinder- lets say 1 divisions a day. Each division needs 24000 tons of rail capacity to move its major items and organic supplies plus seating for 8-10,000 people. The 1000 or so aircraft in Germany need 2300 tons of fuel and 4600 tons of ammo per sortie so if they are doing 3 sorties a day they need 6900 tons of fuel and 13800 tons of ammunition per day. The combined total is over 270,000 tons of cargo every 4 days.

All of this has to be supplied and moved. If you push it all forward before the war you have two choices- great big dumps where a golden bb can cripple your entire war effort or lots of smaller dumps that dilute combat power and add friction. rail supply is the only way.

to give you an idea of scale...

The Soviet forces TOE

Note- typical army level support is an engineer brigade, SAM brigade, artillery brigade, SSM brigade, rocket regiment, pontoon regiment, recon battalion and spetsnaz battalion.

In Germany (GSFG)

12x TD, 7x MRD (with 20+ TD and 33+ MRD plus 10+ other divisions and 10= divisions worth of assets that can be sent)

8th GA- 2x TD 2x MRD, tank brigade, AT regiment plus support

1st GTA- 2x TD 1x MRD,

3rd shock- 4x TD

2nd GTA 1x TD, 3x MRD

20th GTA 3x TD, 1x MRD, tank brigade, AT regiment


WGF theater assets- artillery division, 2x SSM brigades, engineer brigade, 2x SAM brigade, SAM regiment, spetsnaz brigade, railway brigade, pontoon regiment.

WGF air assets- 24 fighter regiments, 16 fighter bomber regiments, 2 recon regiments

In Poland (NGF)

20th GTA 1x TD 1x MRD plus support,

NGF air assets- 3 fighter regiments, 6 fighter bomber regiments

In Czechoslovakia

4th GA 2x TD, 3x MRD, AT regiment plus support

CGF assets- 2x SSM bgd, 1x super heavy artillery bgd, engineer brigade, SAM brigade, SAM regiment,

CGF air assets 3x fighter bomber regiments

In Hungary (SGF)

9th GA- 2x TD, 2x MRD, AT regiment

SGF assets- super heavy artillery brigade, 2x SSM brigade, engineer brigade, SAM brigade.

SGF air assets- 3 fighter regiments, 3 fighter-bomber regiments, 1 recon regiment.

Lenningrad MD (NWTVD) (to Germany)

6th CAA- 1x cat A MRD, 4x cat B MRD

Vyborg Corps- 3x cat C MRD

Archangel Corps- 3x cat C MRD, cat A artillery division, cat B artillery division, cat A airborne division, spetsnaz naval brigade, cat A naval infantry brigade

NWTVD air assets- 3 fighter regiments, 3 fighter bomber regiments.

Baltic MD (to Germany)

11th GA- 2x cat B TD, 1x cat B MRD, 1x cat C MRD

14th CAA- 1x cat b tank division, 4x cat C MRD, airborne division, 2x artillery division, naval infantry brigade, spetsnaz naval brigade

Baltic MD air assets- 6 fighter regiments, 3 fighter bomber regiments, recon regiment

Belarus MD (to Germany)

5th GTA- 1x cat A TD, 3x cat B TD, 1x cat B MRD

7th GTA- 4x cat B TD, 1x cat B MRD

28th CAA- 2x cat b TD, 1x cat A MRD, 1x cat B MRD

1st unified corps- airborne division, 1x cat A artillery division, 1x cat b artillery division, 3x cat A tank brigades, motor rifle regiment, artillery brigade, AAA regiment

BRMD air assets- 6 fighter regiments, 3 fighter bomber regiments

Moscow Military District-

1st GTA- 1x cat B TD, 3x cat A MRD

2nd GA- 1x cat B TD, 1x cat A MRD, 2x cat C MRD, airborne division, 1x cat A artillery division, 1x cat b artillery division

MMD air assets- 3 fighter regiments, 3 fighter bomber regiments, 10 bomber regiments

and I am tired and don't feel like writing out the Carpathian, Kiev, Volga, Odessa, and Urals military districts

I still have can't see if the SU starts this what would be the objectives? The gap alone, Germany, W. Europe? The farther they plan to go, the more troops in East Germany and Czechoslovakia will be placed.

Western answer- to conqueror the free peoples of Europe.
Soviet answer- to crush the imperialist dogs and liberate the proletariat
Russian answer- to kill them before they kill us.

If it is Fulda gap alone, I believe 3000 conventional missiles plus few MOABs would do the trick. Then what?

You believe based on what?... 3000 missiles... SCUDS? max damage 12000m^2 or 12km^2 with no overlap and a perfectly square blast... lmao The Fulda gap is 116 km^2

Originally Posted by Blademaster

Then it means that the Soviets and NATO are waiting for who wins on the North Atlantic ocean front. I surmise that the best bet is to take over Iceland and cut off all sea reinforcements and isolate Britain and mainland Europe from America. Once that happens, I am sure both parties would go back to the table and negotiate to a ceasefire with some concessions. If the Soviets doesn't manage to get Iceland, then the Soviets would be on a defensive posture and ceding the offensive momentum to NATO.

Close but no, neither side is waiting, the winner will be the one who can cut the others lines and keep their own open and either prevent or achieve a breakthrough with the forces they have and get.

Originally Posted by 1979

which is where ? iirc the isn't any major river obstacle all the way to Nuremberg.

The continuous river obstacle for II (GE) Corps is the Rhine-Main-Danube canal in the North, the Danube due east to Passau, and the Inn and Saalach rivers along the Austrian border. The canal between Nuremberg (north of there: parallel to Regnitz river) and Dietfurt (from there: Altmühl river to Danube connection at Kelheim) was specifically built with defense purposes in mind.

The entire area east of this line was a planned overrun area, and the two brigades stationed in that forward area (10th & 11th) without their heavy assets attached were intended as delay forces so the three brigade-level units stationed behind the obstacle could occupy their positions in order to allow for the buildup of the rest of II (GE) Corps behind them.

Nuremberg was the hinge between II (GE) Corps and VII (US/GE) Corps AoRs btw.

Z,

Originally Posted by zraver

NATO didn't want to drive into and through Poland, non-starter.

OK, so it will be the WP who will start it. Just wanted to make it clear.

Dok, below is why they say ameutuers study tactics and professionals study logistics.

In the 1970's the average Soviet tank division (TD) had 2300 major equipment items and 8,000 men and the motor rifle division (MRD) 2400 major items and 10,000 men. However due to call up periods most Soviet divisions would never be more than 75% trained and many were chronically short on manpower, probably deliberate. Most of the manpower shortages were in CSS and SS units which creates problems when the red wine flows for true.

Soviet div arty regiment :18 x152mm, 36x 122mm, 4x FROG launchers (16 total missiles), 6x BM-21, 12x BM-24 and 12x BM-14 MLRS total major item count 210. The rocket artillery (non-FROG) has 20 5mt cargo trucks with 5mt trailers for 100 tons of organic supply)

Divisional supplies on hand per doctrine 3-5 days of fuel and 2.5 days of ammo on the attack or 2 on the defensive. POL and ammunition stocks were kept pre-loaded on trucks. each tank division had 328,000 gallons of fuel on hand (508,000 with on board fuel. A motor rifle division had 297,000 gallons on hand (451,000 gallons with on board fuel). The tank division has 1375mt on ammunition loaded on trucks, the MRD has 1060mt.

Soviet Div AT 18x 100mm ATG with 70 total major items

Soviet regimental artillery 18x 120m mortar, 6x 122mm howitzer
Regimental AAA (infantry) 8x zsu-23-4 and 6x zpu-4
Regimental AAA (tank) 8x zsu-23-4, 4x zsu-57-2
Tank regiment 271-336 major items
Motor rifle regiment 309 to 345 major items
artillery regiment 207 major items
FROG battalion 26 major items
Engineer battalion 135 major items
AAA regiment 162 major items
recon battalion 60 major items
MLRS battalion 150 major items
Division motor transport 460+ major items

Do the math... Just the stuff already in Germany equals2400 vehicles with roughly 470,000 gallons of fuel and 1150 tons of ammo x 18 organic divisions and half a dozen divisions worth of supporting assets plus massive tac air forces. The ground forces alone need 11,280,000 gallons of fuel every 4 days. That is 35,000 tons of fuel every 4 days. In the same period they will also need 55,000 tons of ammunition if heavily engaged and 9000 tons of other supplies. Thats 99,000 tons of supplies every 4 days. Plus to keep manpower levels up you have to be shoving troops into the meet grinder- lets say 1 divisions a day. Each division needs 24000 tons of rail capacity to move its major items and organic supplies plus seating for 8-10,000 people. The 1000 or so aircraft in Germany need 2300 tons of fuel and 4600 tons of ammo per sortie so if they are doing 3 sorties a day they need 6900 tons of fuel and 13800 tons of ammunition per day. The combined total is over 270,000 tons of cargo every 4 days.

All of this has to be supplied and moved. If you push it all forward before the war you have two choices- great big dumps where a golden bb can cripple your entire war effort or lots of smaller dumps that dilute combat power and add friction. rail supply is the only way.

to give you an idea of scale...

The Soviet forces TOE

Note- typical army level support is an engineer brigade, SAM brigade, artillery brigade, SSM brigade, rocket regiment, pontoon regiment, recon battalion and spetsnaz battalion.

In Germany (GSFG)

12x TD, 7x MRD (with 20+ TD and 33+ MRD plus 10+ other divisions and 10= divisions worth of assets that can be sent)

8th GA- 2x TD 2x MRD, tank brigade, AT regiment plus support

1st GTA- 2x TD 1x MRD,

3rd shock- 4x TD

2nd GTA 1x TD, 3x MRD

20th GTA 3x TD, 1x MRD, tank brigade, AT regiment


WGF theater assets- artillery division, 2x SSM brigades, engineer brigade, 2x SAM brigade, SAM regiment, spetsnaz brigade, railway brigade, pontoon regiment.

WGF air assets- 24 fighter regiments, 16 fighter bomber regiments, 2 recon regiments

In Poland (NGF)

20th GTA 1x TD 1x MRD plus support,

NGF air assets- 3 fighter regiments, 6 fighter bomber regiments

In Czechoslovakia

4th GA 2x TD, 3x MRD, AT regiment plus support

CGF assets- 2x SSM bgd, 1x super heavy artillery bgd, engineer brigade, SAM brigade, SAM regiment,

CGF air assets 3x fighter bomber regiments

In Hungary (SGF)

9th GA- 2x TD, 2x MRD, AT regiment

SGF assets- super heavy artillery brigade, 2x SSM brigade, engineer brigade, SAM brigade.

SGF air assets- 3 fighter regiments, 3 fighter-bomber regiments, 1 recon regiment.

Lenningrad MD (NWTVD) (to Germany)

6th CAA- 1x cat A MRD, 4x cat B MRD

Vyborg Corps- 3x cat C MRD

Archangel Corps- 3x cat C MRD, cat A artillery division, cat B artillery division, cat A airborne division, spetsnaz naval brigade, cat A naval infantry brigade

NWTVD air assets- 3 fighter regiments, 3 fighter bomber regiments.

Baltic MD (to Germany)

11th GA- 2x cat B TD, 1x cat B MRD, 1x cat C MRD

14th CAA- 1x cat b tank division, 4x cat C MRD, airborne division, 2x artillery division, naval infantry brigade, spetsnaz naval brigade

Baltic MD air assets- 6 fighter regiments, 3 fighter bomber regiments, recon regiment

Belarus MD (to Germany)

5th GTA- 1x cat A TD, 3x cat B TD, 1x cat B MRD

7th GTA- 4x cat B TD, 1x cat B MRD

28th CAA- 2x cat b TD, 1x cat A MRD, 1x cat B MRD

1st unified corps- airborne division, 1x cat A artillery division, 1x cat b artillery division, 3x cat A tank brigades, motor rifle regiment, artillery brigade, AAA regiment

BRMD air assets- 6 fighter regiments, 3 fighter bomber regiments

Moscow Military District-

1st GTA- 1x cat B TD, 3x cat A MRD

2nd GA- 1x cat B TD, 1x cat A MRD, 2x cat C MRD, airborne division, 1x cat A artillery division, 1x cat b artillery division

MMD air assets- 3 fighter regiments, 3 fighter bomber regiments, 10 bomber regiments

and I am tired and don't feel like writing out the Carpathian, Kiev, Volga, Odessa, and Urals military districts

Thanks for your detailed answer, I'll need some time to convert and digest all those numbers.

Western answer- to conqueror the free peoples of Europe.
Soviet answer- to crush the imperialist dogs and liberate the proletariat
Russian answer- to kill them before they kill us.

I am no expert, nor I pretend I am, however if you believe WP can't stock that, I believe WP generals had the same issue. Based on what I can scratch from your numbers, a civilian amateur like me goes to the following question: Why on Earth NATO stationed so many troops there, 60% wouldn't be enough of deterrence, especially armed with nukes?

According to your statement NATO wont kill the Russians simply as they have to go through EG and Poland first, and they are not going there, right?

You believe based on what?... 3000 missiles... SCUDS? max damage 12000m^2 or 12km^2 with no overlap and a perfectly square blast... lmao The Fulda gap is 116 km^2

3000 was a figure of top of the head, make them 10 or 20,000 if you feel better, Soviets had those. Fulda gap can be 116km2, but you don't have 1 soldier stationed on ever m2. The idea is to oversaturate the bases.

Originally Posted by Doktor

Z,

OK, so it will be the WP who will start it. Just wanted to make it clear.


Thanks for your detailed answer, I'll need some time to convert and digest all those numbers.

Those numbers are only part of the story BTW. In 1975 NATO is a joke. The US army is in shambles and using obsolete equipment and the allies the Us supplies are using even older kit. Only the UK modernized on time. Because the US Amy is in shambles the best reserves in NATO are French and no one knows if they will fight for Germany.

The only bright spots are in the air the F-111 with laser guided bombs and TV guided missiles offers a way to do in a raid with a few planes what took multiple raids using hundreds of aircraft in WWII. Bridge dropping deep in Eastern Europe is the only way that NATO can possibly win. The West German government has forced NATO to fight forward so the normal freedom of movement the high level of mechanization would provide is wasted. There is a real threat as well that any Soviet breakthroughs will lead to rapid envelopment. This is especially true in the North where the terrain favors mobile warfare.

I am no expert, nor I pretend I am, however if you believe WP can't stock that, I believe WP generals had the same issue. Based on what I can scratch from your numbers, a civilian amateur like me goes to the following question: Why on Earth NATO stationed so many troops there, 60% wouldn't be enough of deterrence, especially armed with nukes?

see above, NATO could have won defensively with fewer troops if they had military freedom, they didn't. West Germany wasn't a big enough battle space to start with and political decisions made NATO plan to fight the war at the frontier. Defending forward risks rapid envelopment of units before they ever get to fire a shot.

According to your statement NATO wont kill the Russians simply as they have to go through EG and Poland first, and they are not going there, right?

Huh?

Air Land Battle in the context of NATO v WP seeks to fight a battle of limited annihilation. If NATO can last longer than the GSFG, get at least some US reforger or French help and cut the rail lines in Eastern Germany and Poland the war might be able to won defensively. However, there are still going to be huge numbers of dead. cutting the rail lines in the Soviet rear shapes the ground battle NATO actually has to fight, instead of 100 divisions worth of enemy, the contest is against 30-50 divisions. Only having to face 1/3 to 1/2 of your enemies combat power is a big advantage.

Even if not stopped altogether, the idea is to separate the echelons of Soviet forces into manageable and digestable entities. This is achieved by disrupting the tempo of attack by impeding the flow of follow-on forces to the front. Defeat in detail is the result. Reducing the opposing force absolutely from 100 to 30-50 divisions cannot be guaranteed. Altering the tempo so that units perhaps arrive late and piecemeal carries a higher probability.