Monk

As the title is indicative, I wish to figure out how and where is Modern Russia headed, their role in global politics over the next 50yrs and how she will handle her two giant neighbhours who are both vying for Moscow's favours. How is Russia going to handle these things. How is the russian economy going to work out and how are they going to play the great game of geopolitics for the next 50yrs. All analysis is appreciated.

And a specific question to the russian boarders like Garry and Lurker, Are there any of the old strong men from the Brezhnev or Gorbachev era still left in position of power in current Russia. What can you tell me about the current political players in Russia and where they came from.

__________________
"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those others that have been tried from time to time. "

"Although prepared for martyrdom, I preferred that it be postponed."

Sir Winston Churchill

Garry

I am observing what is going on in Russia trying to answer this to myself.

In my view Russia will no longer be a global power... however it will be a regional superpower in Europe, Caucaus, Central Asia & Caspian region and Middle East. In near 20 years Russia will not have any effective policy nor interests in Western hemisphere.... Africa, South Pasific Asia. Instead it will focus on getting maximum power in the areas which are of its interest (see above)...

Russian interests are no longer stem from ideology.... it will be only economic interests.... or anything which influences Russian economy even indirectly. RUSSIA HAS NO IDEOLOGY TO OFFER....

OIL & GAZ reserves and flows will remain its PRIMARY international priority. Russia will try to sabotage creation of new independent links between energy consumers of FSU and Europe with resources of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Russia will try to turn this flow through its territory thus ensuring CONTROL of alternative energy suppliers. Creation of Baku Ceihan was a blow to that.... the underwater Caspian pipeline from Kazakshtan to Baku is even larger blow to Russia policy... Now Russia has to invent something to prevent enlargement fo the route.... Besides that Russia will do its best to take control of pipelines in Ukraine, Poland, Baltics and Georgia as it already did in Belorussia.

Russian politics will see more and more nationalistic pressure from their people. However these people will not want to fight for their nationalistic believes.... unlike US, which cured completelly from Vietnam defeat, most Russians do not believe that they can win anything abroad.... they will not go to fight abroad unless there is a VERY VERY strong sence of danger. Even presence of Russian troops in Tajikistan is greatelly questioned by people - "Why our soldiers should die for stability of foreign independent state?"

Russia will NO LONGER SUBSIDIZE oil/gas deliveries to Former Soviet Union states. Ukraine is just first case.... Moldova, Baltic States and EVEN Belorussia will follow.... Instead of hidden subsidies Russia will be granting FINANCIAL LOANS, which are much more transparent and easier to recover.....

In economy Russia will now encourage revival of high techs.... however no clear and feasible policy is developed to discuss. New super projects are another trend. Russia wants to direct oil revenues for these projects.....


Millitary
Next decade or so Russia will be reforming its army and millitary industry.... the purpose - REDUCE OVERCAPACITY.... and restructure army. Russian army is made of conscripts, build on the Front/Army/Division priciple and is good only for large long conventional wars.... something it WILL NOT encounter (despite some theoritizing in this forum). Russia needs SMALLER ARMY... efficient in regional small/medium scale confliects in regions which most probably BORDER with Russia. However for next decade it will have to keep 1mln soldiers..... Gradually Russia will change priciple of its army to Brigade/regiment principle.... and will assemble armies from Brigades in case of need. MOBILITY is a new fancy slogan...

Russian millitary HARDWARE will be completelly exausted and outdated by 2010 - most tanks/APC/IFV/aircraft/artillery guns/AND EVEN TRUCKS would be 20-25 year old then. Only part of this needs to be replaced.... while most stockpiles of hardware is much beyond the need.... However current industry can not supply limited batches of weapons.... only large volumes of output make it economically efficient. There are still few million people employed in those idle millitary giants.... Russia will need to SHUT DOWN 3/4 of its millitary industry and give volume only to remaining 25% of its industry. The remaining enterprises will have to readjust to a small batch priciple from CONVEYOR like it is now in Europe or USA. However even those modest by soviet scale orders would BOOST remaining millitary companies. By 2015-18 Russia will replace 1/3 of its hardware with newly designed and produced + send remaining old pieces to roast in reserves.....

Russia will focus on breakthrough of specific new types of hardware - NEW FIGHTER,...... new TRAINER, UAVs, LIGHT helicopter/convertor, New SMALL/Medium Class NAVY Destroyers/Corvets, New SAMs, New IBCMs, New Reconnaisance/Targetting Sattelites. It will not put much cash into upgrading Tanks/APCs/IFV/Artillery/MLRS....... The new generation of Russian generals believe that Tanks/APC/IFV conceipt must be reconsidered for a conflicts where massive use of ATGM is expected. The most empasis is now given to AIR DOMINANCE, and coordination/communication of Air Force with Army/NAVY Force.

SovietHonor

Next 50 years, they will be a superpower again. an Industrial powerhouse with much of the world relying on it for energy needs.

The military will be second to none.

2005 ended with a $170 Billion dollar surplus for them. unlike the USA which is pushing the national debt to 8.3 Trillion.

the wild-west 90s are long gone. Now they will pump money into the country.

Although i have a feeling they might go communist again, but without the mistakes of the Soviet era.

Lot of the ministers are former Communist leaders as well.
Putin included. Half are Jews, but when you even mention Gorb he is a piece of ****. Everyone hates him.

TopHatter

And where is the money for that going to come from......?


......DING DING DING! We have a winner! I do believe that surplus ought to last about 3 weeks, by which at the end of that 3 weeks the military might have enough left to....

.....and by country you mean a select few who will benefit from said surplus by a little - hell, let's say it, A LOT of judicious graft and corruption that was learned under the school of....
...YES! Communism for 100 points!
...which unfortunately, corruption and communism (not to mention other words like "police state".....and "gulag"......and "ZERO free speech"....and "food shortages"....) go together like bacon and eggs! Or in this case, vodka and cucumbers!
But how can that happen? This is the New Russia, right?

New Russia? Wrong! For another 100 points, it's actually the old Soviet Union under the Russian tricolor...except for the military aircraft which get the much more asthetically beautiful red star....which frankly and quite seriously, looks much better on the tail of an aircraft.
Except for the West of course, we happen to love the guy for having the cojones to throw in the towel and call it quits while Russia was still standing.

__________________
If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, you are a leader.
~John Quincy Adams

SovietHonor

What are you generalizing and making assumptions?

The money comes from Gas/Oil profits. Putin is a favorite among the military since they finally are getting paid. unlike the 90's.
You are talking from a western perspective. Food shortages were caused by the west, and only in the late 80s where there virtually was no USSR anymore. You think that USA doesn't have the same corruption? Different mentailies, there the corruption is open. Here its pushed under the carpet. At least there finally is somewhat of a crackdown on the republican party for corruption. Vodka and cucumbers? what are you talking about? great generalizations there. You're going to teach me about my own country. Gorb was a dumbass that was tricked by the West. He was corrupt and gave up everything to make some money for himself.

Police state huh, thats why USA admits spying on its own Citizens, and President having the audacity to defend it too.

TopHatter

Generalizing? Sure I'm generalizing, I didn't have time to check the oven where the Soviet Union kept it's financial ledgers.
And assumptions? Hardly. It's called history repeating itself Mr Santayana!

Gosh I hope so. Considering that Volga cars were not exactly Russia's prize export

Hey mad props to the guy for actually paying soldiers for....what? Oh yeah, dedicating and risking their lives for a country so apathetic towards it's defenders that it couldn't/wouldn't pay them...much of anything at all.
Hopefully he'll open up the budget to pay for a new KGB because God know's those soldiers are going to come after his ass when he eventually shuts off the payroll machine once that surplus is nothing but a distant memory.
It worked once, so I'll say it again: Gosh I hope so! Because, - Surprise! - I'm a Westerner.
Ahhhh...excellent idea Comrade. Blame the West for the stunningly asinine failure of the Soviet collectivization, corruption, waste, inefficiency etc rather than point to the obvious reason for the food shortages:
Nobody gave a damn about harvesting the crops until they were rotting in the fields! Then they had to mobilize the fricken ARMY for the love of Lenin to head out into the orchards and crops!
Uh yeah. Don't think so. It was that way looooong before the 80s
Politics and corruption go together like....oh wait, I already used that one.
Fortunately, American corruption - we call it "pork"- doesn't completely BANKRUPT us.
Thanks, I'm rather proud of them myself.
No need, you seem to have your country's future well mapped out.
Different mentalities.

Oh please don't tell me you just compared that overblown flap to Soviet-era thuggery? Last I heard, none of my friends or family were hauled off to Lubyanka for being "counter-revolutionaries" or "enemies of the people"

SovietHonor

Ok Volga cars sucked. Big deal. GM cars suck too, getting kicked out of market by Japs, what does it have to do with politics? What does apathy have to do with the fact the government was broke? Bush gets 2,000 soldiers killed, don't see any soldiers coming after him do you?

Let me ask you a question, did you live in the Soviet Union? Did you live under the collectivation? Did you even experience it? What does blaming have to do with facts? Umm, corruption, same as everywhere else like i told you. During the time of the Soviet-era the total number of Federal workers for the entire country was 140,000. Besides unlike here where the corruption is massive, dealing in the hundreds of millions, it was much less, on a monetary scale.
Do you even understand Communism? Everyone helped each other, we lived in harmony, and people weren't at each others throats. The army was for the people, it helped the people. Started to go bad when Gorb came. Some of his ideas were good, but he approached them the wrong way. USSR never had the murder rates, aboration rates, suicide rates, and all bad things as Russia has now.

that was in the 30s where Sabotage was widespread. many of the former revolutionaries didn't like how Stalin was leading the country, hence they wanted to destroy it. Lot of them operated out of like..London, Paris. Westeren Europe.

SovietHonor

Soviet-era thuggery? Nothing of the sort. Corrupt officals were usally killed. Unlike here where they can get away in court and the such.


If you want "thuggery" i hate to say it but it is now.

Russia is run by bandits, and Bandism is widespread. It is dying down.

TopHatter

Geez man, I can't argue with you there. The American auto industry is such a goat-f-ck right now it reminds me of.....nah, I won't say it.

Does WHY the government was broke mean anything to you?
No, because in this country, our soldiers support George W Bush and the Iraq mission. Hence those incredibly record breaking reenlistment stats.
It's too damn bad the teenagers in this country are such chickenshyts....
And lest you ask, I was prevented from joining the service (the USN) for medical reasons.
Thankfully, no.
Judging by my healthy diet growing up, I'd have to give you a nyet on that one too.
See my lame Russian-language attempt to your question above.

OH DEAR GOD! Who are you fooling?? EVERYONE HELPED EACH OTHER? LIVED IN HARMONY? So then, the stories of people that managed to escape that....place were all 100% bull? Do you know what I understand about Communism? It is a proven FAILED form of government. If it was so damn great, why couldn't it last longer than 70 or 80 years? And please, stop passing the buck onto Gorby or Boris or whoever.
Yes, the country was so much better off under an oppresive police-state....Actually, maybe it was better off come to think of it
Geez, can you blame them? Let's look at the Soviet Union from the time of the Revolution until....well, whenever: The Russian aristocracy shot like dogs by the Bolsheviks, an entire country's private industry hijacked by a bunch of Marxist-Leninist thugs. Murder on a scale that made Hitler look like a pansy....
Um, yeah I can't imagine why they wanted such a cancer to not spread any further...

SovietHonor

Soldiers are always patriots, in any country or any system. The Government was broke because, no leadership, it was torn apart. and LOTS of money was stolen among other things such as historic relics. Stories you hear are prolly from Jews who wanted to leave in the 70s. Its a given that not everyone always like the sytem. Tons of people also don't like it here. So what? I nevered even wanted to ask if you were in the service at all. What about your healthy diet? When statistics point out that 60% of adults in the USA are obese. thats healthy? It was like Shell-shock to see all of the werid diseases or weak children here in the States. All kinds of human problems are found in the USA, and are higher than other parts of the world. In the USSR, the scale was never as high as it is here. Majority of American adults also have mental problems. They do because the work life here is crazy. the pressure to succeed is crazy. It always pisses me off when i see a pregaunt women working here. Do you know that when a women was pregaunt in the USSR she could take 1 year off work and be paid, and given a bonus. It was unimaginable to see a pregaunt women working. Its not a failed government system. Quite successful in China. Perhaps it is hard for you to understand, but people were nicer in the USSR. something which is lacking here. You're going to defend the aristocracy who shot at civilians in 1905? the same aristocracy which had the people under the barrel of a gun? No, they weren't needed. I can agree that the brutality was too much. but nothing else could be expected of a slaved people.


Im expecting a barrage of angry replies

TopHatter

As long as that is true, people can sleep a little easier at night.

It was painful to watch from over here.

Yeah.
The shame of the Revolution, robbing the very country it was trying to change for the better.

Actually, it was people like MiG pilots.
Over here we call them liberals and offer to buy them plane tickets to countries that have the "People's Republic of " prefix

That's true. I was anticipating a smart remark about me not being in the service and that was wrong of me.
Can't argue with that one. Americans are probably the fattest nation on Earth.
That would be our wonderful health-care system. Probably the best medical care in the world and it kills people by being unaffordable without insurance.
Again, I'm not going to argue with that. The United States is not without it's problems. Sometimes massive problems. But it is still here. And I wouldn't choose to live anywhere else in the world.

Except Great Britain. The way their women talk drives me CRAZY!

I'm afraid it is. There are only a few countries left that are still hanging onto to it with their fingernails.
My friend, China is a capitalist country, whatever their "official" goverment claims to be. I deal with the People's Republic every day.

Perhaps it is hard for you to understand, but people were nicer in the USSR. something which is lacking here. No, I'm not defending the Romanovs. They were weak and inept. Their court was hopelessly corrupt.
So...take them to a desolate area and execute them?
But some of those enslaved people turned around and reenslaved their fellows. Either by forced famine, or the threat of the Gulag.

SovietHonor, I received a PM from a decent respectable fellow that we kill this particular debate for now. I agree with him.

Shek

Garry,

Vietnam is still a boogeyman for many in the US, especially on the left wing. Heck, even the last Presidential campaign revolved on a personal level around Vietnam (the faked memos about President Bush's Air National Guard Service and Kerry "reporting for duty" and then getting attacked by the Swift Boat Veterans for the Truth). Within weeks of going into Afghanistan, reporters began asking if Afghanistan had become a quagmire, and the same thing happened within two weeks of OIF.

Now, from a military perspective, I think that Vietnam has finally been cured with OEF and OIF. You can look at ODS as demonstrating the successful reforms post-Vietnam, but you still had a cautious attitude within the military of not wanting to get involved unless we had absolutely overwhelming force available - the planning for both Afghanistan and Iraq still had a component of overestimating the force needed until the SecDef trimmed the plans heavily.

__________________
"So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

SovietHonor

Lol, ya belenko. Eh, traitor every country has them. Like the 90s Ames or Amos, something like that. Was working for the Russians apparently. Kinda, liberals destroyed USSR, but to compare USSR to USA it was based on Liberal ideas. so i guess they were by American standards....Uber-liberals? Having first-hand experience i can't exactly say the best. The tech is the best no doubt. But sometimes the doctors themselves are such idiots. what is it like, 400k are killed every year because of doctor error? How cold-hearted it is that the government doesn't provide healthcare for everyone. USSR did, not sure if Russia does now. Social Security operates with 1% for overhead, yet politicians tell us that we can't afford healthcare for all. but we have enough to bomb Iraq and build $400 million prisons? Well, there was no death penalty in USSR as it was seen as inhumane. longest time in Gulag was average of 15 years. Most of it was in desperate times. I agree thou many people were wrong imprisoned. but how many people have been wrongly killed here by the state with the death penatly?

And now this is my last post, thanks for your understanding.

Shek

Nope. Rolling back democratic reforms and jailing industry leaders doesn't motivate your foreign direct investment bottom line.

Nope. The US will still be on top. Spending 4-10% of the world's largest annual GDP for five decades, with the past three decades being dedicated to an all-volunteer force pretty much guarantees superiority. Russia seems to be moving in the right direction in terms of its personnel policies, but when US defense spending is 35% the size of the entire Russian economy, it's tough to try to play catch up, and there's a lot of catching up to do.

Well, our government bonds are still AAA rated, with foreign investors grabbing them up every chance they get. Of course, they see the structurally sound economy of the world's largest economy and understand that the national debt, while a concern if the US continues deficit spending for decades to come, is not an immediate concern since it represents around 60% or so of our ANNUAL GDP.

As far as the Russian economy goes, it is just over 1/10th the size of the US economy. Better start taking some steroids!

I hope it matches the FDI that's leaving it.