troung

5 May, 2005
The Specter of Russian-Made Fighter Jets in Venezuela
By Stratfor

Venezuela reportedly is looking to purchase Su-27 Flanker fighters from Russia instead of the less-capable Mig-29SMT Fulcrums it previously considered. This development would constitute a provocative move by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez -- one that would have serious implications in Latin America and beyond.

Analysis

Around the recently held Latin American Arms Show LAAD at Rio, Venezuela has expressed interest in acquiring two squadrons of Su-27 Flanker air-superiority fighters from Russia, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported May 4. The Venezuelans apparently are interested in the base model Su-27SK, which has been out of production in Russia since Sukhoi Corp. began producing the Su-30 variants for the export market. If a contract for the reported $250 million deal is signed, the aircraft -- 20 to 24 fighters -- would be transferred to the Venezuelan air force (FAV) from the Russian air force inventory.

Venezuela's interest in the Su-27 is significant in that acquiring the aircraft would make the FAV the most potent air force in South America and the Caribbean. The Flanker has a much longer range than the Mig-29SMT Fulcrum -- which Caracas also is considering purchasing from Russia -- meaning it can operate much further from Venezuelan air space. With a combat radius of nearly 1,000 miles, a Caracas-based Su-27 could participate in dogfights over Colombia, Cuba, most of Central America and the entire Caribbean Sea. Caracas' efforts to acquire advanced weaponry will alter the security environment in Latin America -- and give the United States more to ponder as it figures out how to deal with Venezuela.

Whether the FAV chooses the MiG-29s, the Su-27s or both, the new fighters will replace its aging F-16s, which the United States provided in the early 1980s. The F-16s, which the FAV deploys in two squadrons based at El Libertador air base in Maracay, spend most of their time on the ground because of low serviceability. The U.S. government stopped supplying the FAV with spare parts for its F-16s in 2001 after the Chavez government suspended military relations with Washington. Although the FAV has managed to keep some F-16s in the air despite maintenance difficulties resulting from the embargo -- a point of pride for the FAV -- the jets' long-term serviceability is in doubt.

In February, Caracas purchased 10 Mi-17 and Mi-26 helicopters and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles in a deal worth $120 million. Unlike these purchases, primarily intended to support border and internal security requirements, Su-27s would have implications far beyond Venezuela's borders.

The Su-27 is a long-range, advanced fighter capable of deploying powerful weapons. With even two squadrons of such jets, the FAV could dominate the air forces of neighboring countries. In other words, it would become the most powerful air force in Latin America, far surpassing the capabilities of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Brazil.

Colombia always has eyed Venezuela with suspicion, but bilateral relations have deteriorated since Chavez came to power. Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez has struck a nonchalant pose publicly, claiming he is not worried about the regional security implications of Chavez's arms-buying spree. Colombian media, however, recently disclosed an internal Defense Ministry memorandum that confirms Uribe is quite concerned about the Venezuelan arms build up. The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush also has voiced its concerns repeatedly in Latin America, Madrid and Moscow.

Caracas initially had expressed interest in purchasing the MiG-29SMT Fulcrum, which has a range of 465 miles if external fuel tanks are not attached. The external tanks, which have a negative impact on the fighter's performance, also take up space on the aircraft that could be used for weapons. The Su-27's range on internal fuel alone is almost twice that of the MiG-29. With no need to carry cumbersome external tanks, the Flanker can participate in aerial combat with all of its external stores stations available for missiles.

Meanwhile, in even considering the sale, Russia has a "weapon" with which to exert geopolitical pressure on the United States. In response to recent U.S. inroads along Russia's periphery, Moscow might be deciding to muddy the waters elsewhere for the United States -- and Venezuela, as a sore spot for Washington already, is a good launching pad. Certainly, forcing the United States to channel its resources from Central Asia and the Caucasus in order to counter Russian-caused problems elsewhere would relieve Moscow of some U.S. pressure.

Russia had once hinted at supplying Tu-22M Backfire bombers to China, but later backed off the sale. More recently, Moscow agreed to supply Syria with the Strelets surface-to-air missile system, despite objections from the United States and Israel. Of course, the Su-27 deal could be called off, or scaled back like the Chinese Backfire deals have been, but the political implications of the sale of Su-27s to a regime that is openly hostile to Washington would keep Washington off balance without a fighter going to Venezuela.

Relations between Caracas and Washington have deteriorated markedly since Chavez came to power, especially as Venezuela moved closer to Cuba, aligning its military planning with Havana's. In fact, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently said she considers relations between Washington and Caracas beyond hope of improving. With the United States beginning to refocus its attention to issues outside the Middle East, Chavez believes his country could be targeted for U.S. intervention.

Long-range, heavily armed Su-27s in the FAV's possession, however, would complicate any U.S. military intervention in the region. Air superiority -- gaining and maintaining total control of the air over the battlefield -- is essential to U.S. military planning. In any U.S. operation against Venezuela, the formidable defensive obstacle presented by squadrons of Su-27s would have to be overcome before air superiority could be achieved. Moreover, the Su-27's long range would force U.S. air and naval units to operate further from Venezuelan skies.

If Chavez can acquire surplus Russian air force Su-27s for less than the cost of new MiG-29s, he certainly would get more bang for his buck, which would help ease the fiscal strain of his rearmament program. Combined with a huge militia reserve armed with new Kalashnikov and older FAL rifles, the Su-27 would provide another layer of defense between Chavez and Washington.

The specter of Chavez's air force operating the Su-27 would give Washington -- and its allies in the region -- plenty to think about.

Source

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A lot of scare mongering.

Those would replace the Mirage 50EVs and VF-5A/Bs not the F-16A/B B-15s.

TopHatter

Yes it is, but it begs the question: what the hell does he want with all that hardware??

__________________
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~John Quincy Adams

troung

Well I could cite self defense which is why most nations buy weapons. And lots of South American nations are buying new toys so not like one wants to be left behind. Both Brazil and I think Colombia have F-X fighter tenders for new jets.

But there is the posutering issue as well. He wants to look big. These nations were faced with COIN issues during the 1960s yet many picked up Mirage fighters.

And there is the finger in the eye thing. He bought those AK-103/AK-104s despite the fact his army actually uses the 5.56mm (FNC) and 7.62mm (FAL/MAG) NATO. They were supposed to get the FNC as the service rifle (in use with elite units) but out of the blue bought the AK-103/AK-104 which don't use the same round.

He is buying Mi-17s even though the FAV wanted the UH-60.

Rumor has it that he has had to actually fire some generals to get what he wants like with the MiG-29M thing.

I went over some of it in another thread.

We should not push to a coup but simply wait him out. They are still a democracy.

TopHatter

Well OK, defense needs are well good and fine. I can also understand him thumbing his nose at the United States and buying Russian gear instead.
(Let's hope he got a diamond-plating maintanence and support package cast in stone)
But isn't procuring Su-27 Flankers going a bit overboard?

BenRoethig

That's the million dollar question. Flankers would give them the most powerful airforce in latin America. If he were to turn agressive he'd have a distinct advantage in air cover.

__________________
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troung

Of course it is but it just looks the part. Chavez himself is simply overboard. An excessive plane for an excessive man.

Colombia's most modern fighter is the Kfir C-7 and Brazil's is the F-5BR. So yeah its a excellent plane to look big with. Granted this could make Brazil make up their mind finally on the F-X program and more then likely buy the Mirage 2000-5BR. And Colombia could also push through the F-16 sale they thought about. But it would not start an arms race as South America has had one for years.

But to play the part one needs the toys, and the Flanker helps him play the big man. Granted they cost a lot to fly...

At least the Su-27SK is better for the overboard weapon then Norigeas (?) large oversized machete to wave around....

Franco Lolan

Flankers are way too much of an alteration of BOP in region.
US better start getting contingency plans in order and plan coupes.
Chavez is a strategic threat to American security.
Time to invoke Monroe Doctrine once more.

troung

Before the F-X program in Brazil got put on hold it was down to the Su-35 and Mirage 2000-5BR. In fact the Su-35 is on paper a better plane then the Su-27SK.

Chile is getting CFT equipped F-16C/Ds. Peru has both MiG-29SEs and Mirage 2000EP/DPs.

The worst thing we could do is to cause a coup. The last one didn't help at all. That would bring back all types of memories of us causing coups down there. Plus we are pushing democracy, it will not look good to rip one down no matter how shady it is.

Wait him out as simple as that.

dave angel

there seems to to undue concern that chavez is buying the 'most powerful airforce in latin america'.

when did an air force spend money to become the second most powerful air force in its region?

dalem

Ask Canada.

-dale

BenRoethig

I wouldn't go that far, but I'd feel a bit better if we bought a few Block 60 Falcons for the PR ANG.

BenRoethig

Canada has 10% of the population we do.

dalem

I'm not pissing on Canada. A question was asked and I answered with a valid example.

-dale

troung

No point.

Those are Su-27SKs and if they end up being armed like the other Su-27SKs around then a squadron of F-16A/B ADFs with AIM-120s and an AWACs could take care of them. But that's forgetting he is not planing to attack us.

This is all so he can wag his thing and act like a big man. Plus it has good sales appeal over there and the last thing we want to do is prove him right again. Just sit back and watch him run his nation into the ground.

Plus Block 60s cost a lot....

Franco Lolan

Interest is:
1)oil
2) tied to oil, him being a nexus through which geopolitical goals of others are played off: namely, the PRC. China has been doing TONS of work in Venezuela.
3) he's not democratic

I agreee with the no coupe policy; however, I sure hope the US is working on the problem.