Russia Offers Georgia A Stick And A Carrot

Ray · 04-25-2008, 04:46 AM

Quote:

RUSSIA OFFERS GEORGIA A STICK AND A CARROT

By Pavel Felgenhauer

Thursday, April 24, 2008

On Sunday, April 20, an unarmed Georgian reconnaissance drone was shot down over the territory Abkhazia. The Georgian authorities alleged that a Russian Air Force MiG-29 fighter had downed the drone. The jet, according to Georgian radar data, took off from an airbase near Gudauta in Abkhazia and, after destroying the drone, flew north over the border and the Caucasian mountains into Russian territory. The Georgians released a video they say was recorded and transmitted by the camera of the drone just before it was hit by an air-to-air missile. The video shows a distinct silhouette of a twin-tailed fighter with no visible markings firing a missile.

The Russian military have vigorously denied any involvement and have called the Georgian accusations "fantasies," while maintaining that the Abkhaz military shot down the drone. The Abkhaz Deputy Defense Minister Garry Kupala told journalists that an Abkhaz Air Force L-39 jet had flown the mission, not a Russian MiG-29. Kupala said that the collected debris of the drone indicated that it was an Israeli-made Hermes-450. Last month a similar drone was shot down over Abkhazia (RIA-Novosti, Interfax, NEWSru.com :: ñàìûå áûñòðûå íîâîñòè. Ôîòî è âèäåî äíÿ. Ëåíòà íîâîñòåé â Ðîññèè è â ìèðå., April 21, 22).

The L-39 Albatros is an old two-seater Czech-made trainer jet used by the Russian Air Force to teach cadets basic flying skills. The fighter in the Georgian video does not resemble an L-39, which has a distinctive silhouette with a single tail. The L-39 is an unarmed plane but can carry two small bombs under its wings and may be used as a light bomber. The L-39 has no on-board radar or any equipment to fire air-to-air missiles. A successful interception by an L-39 of a small drone in the skies over Abkhazia is not a plausible story.

In the war in 1992-1993 in Abkhazia, Chechen separatists as well as the Russian military supported the Abkhaz against the Georgians. The Abkhaz leaders at the time claimed that the late Chechen separatist leader Dzohar Dudayev gave them several L-39s from the stock of a former Russian flying school in Hankala near Grozny. The jets were used to bomb Georgian positions. The Abkhaz showed this Jamestown correspondent a stretch of a highway south of Gudauta that they used as an improvised airstrip. In fact, Russian military aircraft from the Gudauta airbase attacked the Georgians. In 1994 at that airbase, a Russian pilot related a story of how he had flown sorties to bomb the Georgians and how the crews masked the red stars of their Air Force plane identifications before take-off.

The same may have happened last Sunday. Last year Georgia accused Russia of a helicopter gunship attack in March in the Kodori Gorge and of another attack by a Russian jet with an air-to-ground missile in August near South Ossetia. In both cases the Russian military strenuously denied any involvement. The Russian authorities have declared that Russian forces have abandoned the Gudauta airbase, but no foreign observers have been allowed to verify this claim.

At a press conference in Moscow last October the Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh told journalists that reconnaissance drones were regularly flying over Abkhazia, and he threatened to have them shot down (ITAR-TASS, October 5, 2007). Until this week, Georgia did not openly disclose that it had drones. Last November in Tbilisi, Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili told Jamestown that Georgia had acquired Israeli-made drones. A day later President Mikheil Saakashvili refused to comment. Now Saakashvili has announced that Georgia has some 40 Israeli-made drones that are used to monitor Abkhaz troop movements. Saakashvili declared that Russia had secretly expanded military aid to Abkhazia and had deployed military aircraft in the region. On April 21 Saakashvili phoned President Vladimir Putin, but the talks do not seem to have reduced tension (New York Times, April 22).

Last week Putin issued an executive order (poruchenyie), authorizing the "improvement of relations" between Russian government agencies and the authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This decision has been seen in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and in Russia as an important step toward eventual official recognition of the separatist regimes, while in Georgia it was denounced as "creeping annexation" (NEWSru.com :: ñàìûå áûñòðûå íîâîñòè. Ôîòî è âèäåî äíÿ. Ëåíòà íîâîñòåé â Ðîññèè è â ìèðå., April 16; EDM, April 18). At the same time, Moscow has been partially dismantling sanctions it imposed on Georgia in 2006. Direct passenger flights have resumed between Moscow and Tbilisi, as well as postal services and money transfers. Russian officials have indicated that in the future Georgian wine and mineral water imports maybe allowed.

Moscow's overall strategy seems to be aimed at changing Georgian pro-Western policies by a combination of pressure and offers of perks. Russia has demonstrated that it can shoot down planes, bomb from time to time and openly support separatists and there is nothing much the West or the Georgians can do. But if the Georgians "come to their senses" (odumayutsia) and refuse to join NATO, they will be rewarded. At present, the Kremlin does not seem to intend to actually annex Abkhazia or South Ossetia. A future clash in the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia or in South Ossetia may escalate at any time into an all-out war even though no one seems to want it.
RUSSIA OFFERS GEORGIA A STICK AND A CARROT - Eurasia Daily Monitor

Georgia, Ukraine and Kosovo are areas that will be interesting to watch as the giants battle it out with their proxies!

Ray · 04-29-2008, 03:54 AM

Quote:

Tensions Rise Sharply Over Abkhazia

28 April 2008By Nikolaus von Twickel and Matt Siegel / Staff Writers

Tensions between Moscow and Tbilisi escalated over the weekend amid reports that Russian military reinforcements were being deployed in Georgia's breakaway republic of Abkhazia and local residents were being forced to swap their ID cards for Russian passports.

Russian-led peacekeeping forces in the region denied a report Friday by Georgia's Rustavi 2 television that it had video evidence that divisions of the Maikop brigade had been sent to the Ochamchira region, which is mostly populated by ethnic Georgians.

Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Diordiev, an aide to the commander of the peacekeeping forces, criticized the report as an attempt to "keep tension high and prolong provocations against the Russian peacekeepers," Interfax reported.

But Georgia's minister for reintegration, Temur Iakobashvili, said Sunday that isolated cases of Georgian citizens being forced to exchange their ID cards for Russian passports had been confirmed. He urged caution and said his government wanted a full report from the local United Nations observer mission.

"There is some evidence that this type of thing is happening," he said by telephone from Tbilisi. "On what scale, it's hard to say."

The reports of troop movements came just one day after Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili called for the expulsion of Russian peacekeepers. "Russia's presence, the presence of the Russian contingent in the conflict zone, is becoming a risk factor," Saakashvili told a meeting with foreign ambassadors broadcast on national television.

Relations between the two countries have been strained after Georgia accused the Russian military of shooting down an unmanned spy plane over Abkhazia, a charge denied by Moscow.

The accusations and escalating rhetoric continued to spill over from both sides last weekend. Valery Kenyaikin, an official from the Russian Foreign Ministry said Russia would take "all possible measures" to protect its citizens in Abkhazia if fighting broke out," provoking an outcry from Georgia.

The United States reiterated its support for Georgia and criticized Russia's overall policy toward breakaway republics. "We hope Russia will retract this statement as well as the steps it recently announced to strengthen its ties with Georgia's separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia," State Department spokeswoman Joanne Moore said, The Associated Press reported.

Iakobashvili, who told The Moscow Times in February that Georgia would respond to any Russian recognition of the republics militarily, denied that his government was planning any armed response after the news report and urged diplomacy. "Instead of trying to handle the cases one by one, we should change the general attitude there and have a system where this kind of things will not happen," he said. "We are not going to employ a reactive policy but to change the situation on the ground in a way that human rights will be respected."

The Moscow Times - Tensions Rise Sharply Over Abkhazia

This is indeed becoming a place of intense conflict of interests and thus a flashpoint.

With Russian presence and it being increased, there is little hope that the Georgian govt can ever exercise her writ and neither NATO nor the US will intervene since it would lead to war.

Economic sanctions will also not be applied on Russia since Russia has the magic oil that feeds the industry and homes in Europe.

Will it become another of world unsolved issues?

Is there any solutions?

Firral · 04-29-2008, 06:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray

This is indeed becoming a place of intense conflict of interests and thus a flashpoint.

With Russian presence and it being increased, there is little hope that the Georgian govt can ever exercise her writ and neither NATO nor the US will intervene since it would lead to war.

Economic sanctions will also not be applied on Russia since Russia has the magic oil that feeds the industry and homes in Europe.

Will it become another of world unsolved issues?

Is there any solutions?

Age of this conflict of 500 years!

From the most ancient times the territory of today's South Ossetia was occupied with ancestors the osset - the Iranian group of tribes Scythians Sarmatians Alans of an ethnic file. The Earth South Ossetia never was a part of any Georgian state, being a part of the powerful breeding union North-Caucasian irans, carried out during the Middle Ages through this region the policy in Transcaucasia. Repeatedly East-Georgian tsars tried to take hold of force territory of South Ossetia and to establish here the military-political control. Claims of the East-Georgian feudal lords for domination in South Ossetia were based only on the right of a sword and had no under itself any legitimate basis, being realized only in the form of the extortionate attacks, settlements accompanied by destruction and stealing of cattle. Nevertheless, South Ossetia kept real independence of the Georgian governors.

The present грузино-ossetic conflict has begun in 1989. Its direct reason became occurrence and fast growth of national movement in Georgia, and coming to power of president Zviada Gamsahurdia which has put forward the slogan " Georgia for the Georgian ". On November, 23rd, 1989 nationalist groupings tried to hold meeting in Tskhinvali: from all Georgia here it has been strapped nearby 50000 person. The column has been stopped at entrance to city and after two day of opposition has turned back. In January-April, 1991 government Gamsahurdia to South Ossetia directs the military formations belonged various Georgian political parties and groupings. The fierce military actions with the armed groups the osset have begun. Constraining influence on development of the conflict firstly rendered only presence at South Ossetia two brigades of the Soviet armies - engineering and helicopter. Simultaneously as a result of the conflict and ethnic pressure three groups of refugees were formed. The significant number the osset ran from South Ossetia on territory of Northern Ossetia (subsequently, after an establishment of an armistice, the most part from them has come back home). The second group of refugees - about hundred thousand (on ossetic data) the osset, compelled to run from the internal areas of Georgia which are not a part of South Ossetia. They have lodged in territory both Southern, and Northern Ossetia. At last, to Georgia the part of the Georgian population of South Ossetia has been compelled to run, - though number this group noticeably conceded to ossetic refugees. The republic South Ossetia has been proclaimed on September, 20th, 1990. After transition of the conflict in the armed stage the Certificate about state independence RSO (Republic South Ossetia) on May, 29th, 1992 has been accepted. In January, 1992, in parallel with overthrow of mode Zviada Gamsahurdia in Tbilisi, in territory of South Ossetia the referendum about its status, with questions has been lead, whether supports people independence or () reunion with Northern Ossetia in structure of Russia. On its results South Ossetia has been declared independent. In the spring of 1992 military actions in South Ossetia have renewed. To the middle of June, 1992 the Georgian groups closely have approached to capital JUO of Tskhinvali. After the ultimatum of the Russian management (down to threats of bombardment of Tbilisi) the chapter of the State Council of Georgia Edward Shevardnadze and leaders of South Ossetia have begun negotiations and have signed on June, 24th, 1992 the agreement on principles of settlement Georgia - Ossetia of the conflict. On July, 9th the peace-making forces consisting of the Russian, Georgian and ossetic battalions (last is financed the Ministry of Emergency Measures by the Russian Federation) have been entered into a zone of the conflict. Armed conflicts have stopped, 18-month's war in South Ossetia has come to the end. During the conflict are killed and were missing more than 1000 person, it is wounded from above 2500.

Stan187 · 04-29-2008, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firral

Claims of the East-Georgian feudal lords for domination in South Ossetia were based only on the right of a sword and had no under itself any legitimate basis

Is that not how just about every claim to land throught history has been? The legitimacy of claims is extremely subjective.

rj1 · 04-29-2008, 13:18 PM

I start a thread over in International Defense Topics and then I find this same topic being raised in "Western Alliance". No one involved here is in the Western Alliance!

Anyway, that thread will probably get deleted, so here's my original comment.

Quote:

Russia says Georgia is preparing to mount an offensive against the Georgian breakaway unrecognized country of Abkhazia soon. In response the Russians are sending more "peacekeepers".

Georgia denies this and says Russia is the provocative one.

BBC NEWS | Europe | Georgia 'plans war in Abkhazia'

Here's a BBC article from a couple days ago where U.S. Secretary of State Rice backs Georgia's sovereignty on breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

BBC NEWS | Europe | US reassures Georgia over Russia

However, if you scroll down the article there is also a 30-second video provided by the Georgian Air Force that shows a video of one of their aircraft drones getting shot down by they claim a Russian aircraft. Pretty cool to watch. Russians deny responsibility and blame the Abkhaz rebels for the shootdown, who claimed responsibility, but I don't think the Abkhaz have that kind of money for a fighter aircraft.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last week said Russia would seek closer ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, primarily social and economic links, angering Georgia obviously. This is widely seen as a Russian response to Kosovan independence.

Where there's smoke, there's fire usually. My money's on the Russians if anything occurs.

aktarian · 04-29-2008, 14:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray

This is indeed becoming a place of intense conflict of interests and thus a flashpoint.

With Russian presence and it being increased, there is little hope that the Georgian govt can ever exercise her writ and neither NATO nor the US will intervene since it would lead to war.

Economic sanctions will also not be applied on Russia since Russia has the magic oil that feeds the industry and homes in Europe.

Will it become another of world unsolved issues?

Is there any solutions?

And why shouldn't Abhazia and South Ossetia become independant states? Kosovo did......

Firral · 04-29-2008, 16:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aktarian

And why shouldn't Abhazia and South Ossetia become independant states? Kosovo did......

Because Kosovo - pro-American "country", and South Ossetia and Abkhazia - proRussian. Probably it is the answer?
Russia was against branch of Kosovo as it is illegal (in the international law). However the USA have supported Kosovo.
Now, Russia does not speak about branch, but to speak about an autonomy. But the USA against as they have a Georgian ally - " our dictator " Saakashvili.
It is available double standards.

PS: At me a question: Europeans and Americans are ready to be at war for nationalist Saakashvili? It is necessary to you?
You are really ready to accept Georgia in NATO, in fact Saakashvili has told, that it will attach (will grasp) Abkhazia and South Ossetia if it will support NATO.

rj1 · 04-29-2008, 16:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firral

Because Kosovo - pro-American "country", and South Ossetia and Abkhazia - proRussian. Probably it is the answer?
Russia was against branch of Kosovo as it is illegal (in the international law). However the USA have supported Kosovo.
Now, Russia does not speak about branch, but to speak about an autonomy. But the USA against as they have a Georgian ally - " our dictator " Saakashvili.
It is available double standards.

PS: At me a question: Europeans and Americans are ready to be at war for nationalist Saakashvili? It is necessary to you?
You are really ready to accept Georgia in NATO, in fact Saakashvili has told, that it will attach (will grasp) Abkhazia and South Ossetia if it will support NATO.

Well, if that did happen, it would be the first time that NATO will ever fulfill its purpose: to act together in war against the Russians.

Firral · 04-29-2008, 20:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rj1

Well, if that did happen, it would be the first time that NATO will ever fulfill its purpose: to act together in war against the Russians.

And it is necessary to you? You have not enough coffins from Iraq and Afghanistan? You want that your soldiers died for the sake of crazy ideas of the Georgian nationalists?

PS: Strange, but your politicians try to assure all world, that the purposes at NATO it is absolutely others.

**Officer of Engineers** · 04-29-2008, 20:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rj1

Well, if that did happen, it would be the first time that NATO will ever fulfill its purpose: to act together in war against the Russians.

It won't happen. We have not seen any pictures of babies dying yet.

Oscar · 04-29-2008, 20:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rj1

Well, if that did happen, it would be the first time that NATO will ever fulfill its purpose: to act together in war against the Russians.

We didn't budge for Chechenia, and it was far more bloody and Russia was far weaker, so why would we intervene now? Georgia in NATO is just a bad idea and it will only bring more tensions because the big fishes (EU and US) would be in Russia's backyard.

LetsTalk · 04-29-2008, 23:03 PM

Abhazia

Firral, I do not agree with how Kosovo was handled, and I believe that we need to get out of Iraq, not all Americans believe that it was the right thing to do.

With that I need to call you and Russia on what I find very hypocritical. And your latest actions are nothing but bullying, a smaller neighbor.

For starters Georgians are a much larger ethic population in Abhazia, than Abkhaz or Russians, and in that manner larger than both populations combined. Another telling sign is the population of Russian, Armenians, and Greeks (I understand that many of them left for Greece) in the region, after the war.

Abkhazia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Year Total___Georgians__Abkhaz__Russians_Armenians_Gree ks
1926 186,004___67,494___55,918__12,553___25,677___14,04 5
1939 311,885___91,967___56,197__60,201___49,705___34,62 1
1959 404,738__158,221___61,193__86,715___64,425____9,10 1
1970 486,959__199,596___77,276__92,889___74,850___13,11 4
1979 486,082__213,322___83,087__79,730___73,350___13,64 2
1989 525,061__239,872___93,267__74,913___76,541___14,664 - Prior to the war
2003 215,972___45,953___94,606__23,420___44,870____1,486 - After war population

And here is were hypocrisy comes in: Chechens account for 93.5% of Chechnya. With that said, I believe that Chechen rebels behaved as terrorist and criminals during the Chechen war.

Chechnya - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

LetsTalk · 04-29-2008, 23:18 PM

Firral, I agree with you that Ossetia (Alania) deserves independence, but not just south Ossetia but north Ossetia also, which is part of Russia currently. Ossetians account for 66.2% of South Ossetia, and 62.7% of North Ossetia were the great majority of Ossetians live.

North Ossetia-Alania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
South Ossetia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

LetsTalk · 04-29-2008, 23:43 PM

Russians also helped create the mess in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, were Armenians account for 76.4% of the population. They had no business being part of Azerbaijan.

Nagorno-Karabakh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Some quotes from WIKI:

"Armenians have lived in the Karabakh region since Roman times. "
"The present-day conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has its roots in the decisions made by Joseph Stalin and the Caucasian Bureau (Kavburo) during the Sovietization of Transcaucasia. "
"Armenia and Georgia were also taken over by the Bolsheviks who, in order to attract public support, promised they would allot Karabakh to Armenia, along with Nakhchivan and Zangezur (the strip of land separating Nakhchivan from Azerbaijan proper). However, the Soviet Union also had far-reaching plans concerning Turkey, hoping that it would, with a little help from them, develop along Communist lines. Needing to placate Turkey, the Soviet Union agreed to a division under which Zangezur would fall under the control of Armenia, while Karabakh and Nakhchivan would be under the control of Azerbaijan."

LetsTalk · 04-29-2008, 23:50 PM

Firral, in summary, I find your post hypocritical, when Russia is full of minorities, and many of those minorities are geographical majorities where they live. So before Russia gets involved in other conflicts, against x-soviet union states, and creates tiny Russian-puppet nations, it should look at its own borders first.

04-29-2008, 23:03 PM	#12 (permalink)
LetsTalk Contributor Join Date: 03-15-08 Location: Illinois Posts: 426 Country:	Abhazia Abhazia Firral, I do not agree with how Kosovo was handled, and I believe that we need to get out of Iraq, not all Americans believe that it was the right thing to do. With that I need to call you and Russia on what I find very hypocritical. And your latest actions are nothing but bullying, a smaller neighbor. For starters Georgians are a much larger ethic population in Abhazia, than Abkhaz or Russians, and in that manner larger than both populations combined. Another telling sign is the population of Russian, Armenians, and Greeks (I understand that many of them left for Greece) in the region, after the war. Abkhazia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Year Total___Georgians__Abkhaz__Russians_Armenians_Gree ks 1926 186,004___67,494___55,918__12,553___25,677___14,04 5 1939 311,885___91,967___56,197__60,201___49,705___34,62 1 1959 404,738__158,221___61,193__86,715___64,425____9,10 1 1970 486,959__199,596___77,276__92,889___74,850___13,11 4 1979 486,082__213,322___83,087__79,730___73,350___13,64 2 1989 525,061__239,872___93,267__74,913___76,541___14,664 - Prior to the war 2003 215,972___45,953___94,606__23,420___44,870____1,486 - After war population And here is were hypocrisy comes in: Chechens account for 93.5% of Chechnya. With that said, I believe that Chechen rebels behaved as terrorist and criminals during the Chechen war. Chechnya - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

04-29-2008, 23:18 PM	#13 (permalink)
LetsTalk Contributor Join Date: 03-15-08 Location: Illinois Posts: 426 Country:	Ossetia South and NORTH Firral, I agree with you that Ossetia (Alania) deserves independence, but not just south Ossetia but north Ossetia also, which is part of Russia currently. Ossetians account for 66.2% of South Ossetia, and 62.7% of North Ossetia were the great majority of Ossetians live. North Ossetia-Alania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia South Ossetia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

04-29-2008, 23:43 PM	#14 (permalink)
LetsTalk Contributor Join Date: 03-15-08 Location: Illinois Posts: 426 Country:	Nagorno-Karabakh Russians also helped create the mess in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, were Armenians account for 76.4% of the population. They had no business being part of Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Some quotes from WIKI: "Armenians have lived in the Karabakh region since Roman times. " "The present-day conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has its roots in the decisions made by Joseph Stalin and the Caucasian Bureau (Kavburo) during the Sovietization of Transcaucasia. " "Armenia and Georgia were also taken over by the Bolsheviks who, in order to attract public support, promised they would allot Karabakh to Armenia, along with Nakhchivan and Zangezur (the strip of land separating Nakhchivan from Azerbaijan proper). However, the Soviet Union also had far-reaching plans concerning Turkey, hoping that it would, with a little help from them, develop along Communist lines. Needing to placate Turkey, the Soviet Union agreed to a division under which Zangezur would fall under the control of Armenia, while Karabakh and Nakhchivan would be under the control of Azerbaijan."

04-29-2008, 23:50 PM	#15 (permalink)
LetsTalk Contributor Join Date: 03-15-08 Location: Illinois Posts: 426 Country:	In summary Firral, in summary, I find your post hypocritical, when Russia is full of minorities, and many of those minorities are geographical majorities where they live. So before Russia gets involved in other conflicts, against x-soviet union states, and creates tiny Russian-puppet nations, it should look at its own borders first.

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