Kosovo to declare independence

**Ironduke** · 10-09-2007, 14:52 PM

Quote:

Kosovo will not wait to go it alone

Kosovo will declare its independence almost immediately if there is no deal reached with Serbia before a December deadline, Kosovo's leaders said in London on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Agim Ceku said: "This will happen in a couple of days if the deadline runs out."

The Kosovan leaders want supporting countries, of which Britain is one, to offer pre-arranged recognition at once.

Mr Ceku was in London with the Kosovan President Fatmir Sejdiu to meet the British Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, and other officials.

Without an agreement, a region that saw Nato wage war on Serbia to make its forces leave Kosovo in 1999, would not find the settled political way forward that international diplomacy has been seeking.

It could precipitate another crisis between Russia and the West, with the United States and at least some European Union states recognising Kosovo as an independent country.

Source: BBC NEWS | Europe | Kosovo will not wait to go it alone

Ray · 10-09-2007, 16:50 PM

It will also be the start of another international beggar bowl and basket case nation!

Expat Canuck · 10-09-2007, 22:27 PM

We could use more of those..........

Ray · 11-26-2007, 22:46 PM

Quote:

Kosovo: Armed for independence

2007-11-23 With both outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units armed and patrolling the borders in Kosovo and Macedonia ahead of the official end of internationally mediated talks on Kosovo's status on 10 December, renewed conflict seems inevitable.

Frustrated with the stalemate over the status of Serbia's province of Kosovo, outlawed ethnic Albanian and Serbian paramilitary units have begun patrolling the area "defending borders" - not only in Kosovo, but in Macedonia as well, confirming fears of a renewal of armed conflict.

With the latest round of negotiations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbia having failed and independence prolonged due never-ending disputes among western countries and Russia, it seems that Kosovo and Macedonian war veterans view another armed conflict as the best and perhaps only solution.

In mid-October, the outlawed Albanian National Army (ANA) began openly patrolling towns in northern Kosovo on the Serbia border, establishing checkpoints on Kosovo's important highways, inspecting passing vehicles. They claim that patrolling the provincial towns and roads represent a preventive measure to thwart a potential Serb incursion into the area.

Meanwhile, Kosovo Serb minority representatives say that the ANA is planning attacks on their enclaves in the province. The Serb National Council (SNV) of Northern Kosovo said it had information that the ANA was planning an attack on the Serb part of the divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica.

A quick reaction to these claims came from the recently founded "Tsar Lazar's Guard," a group that also, according to Kosovo media, has organized patrols in Serbia, near the Kosovo border. Media quoted local residents as saying that they had seen groups of uniformed and armed men in the area.

In May, the Movement of Veterans of Serbia (PVS) - a minor extremist party with a single seat in the Serbian parliament - organized the Tsar Lazar's Guard paramilitary unit, comprised of war veterans from across Serbia who fought in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in the 1990s. The unit is said to have 5,000 troops. Symbolically, the group was named after a Serbian noble who fought and died at the Battle of Kosovo in1389.

Dozens of veterans pledged their allegiance to the unit in the Serbian city of Krusevac, promising to fight to the death to prevent Kosovo from being handed over to ethnic Albanians.

The international community has listed both the ANA and Tsar Lazar's Guard as terrorist groups.

So far, there have been no reports that two units have clashed. However, they blame each other for provocations in the form of launching border patrols. The ANA says it is certain that Serbia will invade Kosovo again, and this time they will be prepared, while Tsar Lazar's Guard" is calling for protection of the Serbian minority there.

Kosovo has been under UN administration since 1999, following a NATO bombing campaign that drove out Serb forces accused of ethnic cleansing. Several rounds of UN-sponsored talks in Vienna since February 2006 achieved little result, with the Serbian and Kosovo delegations refusing to budge from their original positions.

Some 100,000 Serbs live in separate areas guarded by NATO peacekeepers in the restive province. Serbian officials estimate that about 200,000 Serbs have left their homes over the past seven years and settled in Serbia proper and throughout the Europe.

Propensity for violence

The UN and NATO see the ANA as a loosely organized terrorist group comprised of people who have shown in the past their propensity for brutal violence that does not have the backing of the majority of local people.

Serbian and Kosovo media speculate that the ANA now has over 12,000 members, including intellectuals, students, farmers and former fighters all frustrated with provincial "leadership's soft approach regarding independence talks."

The group grew out of the insurgent Macedonian ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA), whose former commanders are now members of the Macedonian parliament, and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA,) whose commanders are now ruling Kosovo. Neither Kosovo nor Macedonian ethnic Albanian leaders openly support the ANA's goals and have distanced themselves from the groups.

The ANA, formed after the 2001 peace framework in Macedonia, calls for the unification of ethnic Albanian areas of the Western Balkans, including the western part of Macedonia and southern Serbia, and currently operates in Kosovo and Macedonia.

Only the Serbian Defense Ministry responded to the ANA's claims, saying that the Serbian Army would respond "at the speed of lightning" to any attempts of violence in the country's south.

The NLA, whose political leaders have been damned as traitors by the ANA, launched a rebellion against Macedonian forces in January 2001, demanding greater rights for the republic's 25 percent ethnic Albanian minority.

But the group, who controlled a swathe of territory along Macedonia's northern and western borders with Kosovo and Albania, laid down its weapons, gave up secession and signed a peace agreement with the Macedonian government.

After the deal was inked, NATO in August 2001 sent in some 3,500 troops to conduct operation "Essential Harvest," with the goal of disarming the NLA and destroying its weapons. During the 30-day mission, NATO troops, with logistical support from Macedonian forces, confiscated more than 3,800 rifles, mortars, howitzers and a tank from ethnic Albanian rebels.

However, the signing of the peace agreement did not satisfy some radical ethnic Albanians, who continued with a small-scale armed rebellion. Since late 2001, the ANA has claimed responsibility for at least a dozen attacks on government infrastructure, including courts, the transportation network and former interior minister Ljube Boskoski, who is currently on trial for war crimes against Albanians committed in 2001.

The clashes between Macedonian security forces and the ANA have intensified since August, when ethnic Albanians attacked a police station and police patrols near the border with Kosovo, the stronghold of Albanian guerrillas during the 2001 conflict.

Then in early November, Macedonian security forces launched operation "Mountain Storm," clashing with ANA militants, though Macedonian officials said that the operation was carried out against alleged armed Albanian criminals, not insurgents.

After the operation, a until now unknown Kosovo-based "Political Advisory Body of the Kosovo Liberation Army" issued a statement taking responsibility for the shootout, claiming that its members were forced to "protect endangered Albanian nationals in the Serbia-Macedonia region."

Police said eight gunmen were killed and 12 others arrested, while an impressive amount of weapons were seized. KFOR, NATO's 16,000-strong force in Kosovo, has increased its troop level on the Kosovo side of the border since the start of the Macedonian operation.

However, ethnic Albanian Macedonian lawmaker Rafiz Aliti, former NLA commander and an official from the opposition Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) party, told parliament earlier this month that not only Macedonian security forces were involved in the clashes, but some paramilitary units as well. He said that villagers witnessed that some involved in operation "Mountain Storm" were speaking Serbian and had uniforms that some recognized as those worn by Tsar Lazar's Guard.

Insurgency inevitable

Whichever decision is made regarding Kosovo's status, whether the province is granted independence or not, the authorities will have difficulty preventing ethnic insurgency. In interviews with western media outlets, unnamed diplomats involved in the status process admit that some level of armed conflict is inevitable, but hope that KFOR will manage to control it.

If independence is granted, there is a fear that Serbian paramilitary forces could intervene under the guise of protecting the Serb minority. On the other hand, Albanians will settle for nothing less then full independence, and their frustration will be taken out on the Serb minority and the international community if their demands are not met.

Tsar Lazar's Guard has threatened to attack UN and NATO forces and buildings in Kosovo if the province is granted independence from Serbia. At the same time, the ANA has already claimed responsibility for several attacks against Macedonian government institutions since 2002 and attacks on UN and Serb enclaves in Kosovo, and anything short of independence will likely result in more attacks.

On 21 November, commander of Tsar Lazar's Guard, Hadzi Andrej Milic, sent invitations to Serbian lawmakers to go to the war. He informed Serbian lawmakers that "members of the unit would gather on November 28th at Merdare, the administrative border crossing to Kosovo, to set up their headquarters in order to symbolically start the new war for the liberation of Kosovo."

Bosnian media reported that in early November, the Guard held a line-up ceremony in the eastern Bosnian city of Rogatica, near the Serbian border, with 200 Bosnian Serbs joining the unit, prepared to go to Kosovo for a new war.

Meanwhile, world powers seem to be unable to find a sort of compromise that would not result in violence.

Granting Kosovo independence, which seemed to the EU and the US a much easier task a couple of years ago, has been jeopardized by Russia, Serbia's long-time ally, which had refrained earlier on from interfering in the status talks.

However, in June, Russia used its veto rights to prevent the adoption of a UN Security Council resolution granting Kosovo gradual independence, assuring Belgrade that nothing would happen without their approval.

It is clear now that Kosovo's status has become yet another instrument in a diplomatic war between Russia and the west. Russia, with its ties to the Serbia, remains the main strategic foreign investor in the country.

Meanwhile, on 7 November, in a surprise move, the EU initialed a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) - the first step for western Balkan nations toward EU accession - with Serbia. It was a move viewed by most keen observers as an attempt to appease Serbian authorities regarding Kosovo.

"This marks a real turning point for Serbia…now Serbia has to go the last mile and achieve full cooperation," EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters.

However, in early 2006, the EU froze SAA talks with Serbia after authorities there failed to arrest top war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic, the former Bosnian Serb general charged for the worst atrocities in Bosnia's 1992-1995 war, believed to be hiding in Serbia.

The animosity between the EU and Russia has now moved to the streets of Kosovo – a situation best illustrated during Kosovo's 17 November parliamentary elections, which the Kosovo Serbs boycotted.

In the city of Kosovska Mitrovica, divided along ethnic Albanian and Serb lines by the river line, it was a very busy day. The Serbs, boycotting the elections, held a market day in which vendors sold shirts and stickers printed with the likenesses of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ratko Mladic. On the other side of the river, posters bore the photograph of a smiling US President George W Bush.

The winner of the election was Hasim Taci, former leader of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK). His Democratic Party of Kosovo (DPK) won 35 percent of the votes, followed by President Fatmir Seidiu's Democratic Alliance of Kosovo (DAK) with 22 percent.

After the results were published, Taci promised to declare independence unilaterally on or shortly after 10 December, when the ongoing, internationally mediated negotiations on the province's final status are due to end.

For additional information on Kosovo, Serbia and Macedonia, and to order a Special Report on the region, contact ISA Executive Director Anes Alic in Sarajevo.

ISA Portal - Kosovo: Armed for independence

Just ripe for some more bloodshed and confusion to be brought in the world order!

All this is a fallout of the supremacy game between Russia and the West and it is but a replay of European history with the Balkans as the pawn!

With a bit of Islam thrown it, the cauldron is near boiling!

Feanor · 11-26-2007, 22:50 PM

Should've left Milosevic alone. At least he would've kept Islam at bay.

gunnut · 11-26-2007, 23:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor

Should've left Milosevic alone. At least he would've kept Islam at bay.

In hind sight, we probably were a bit too harsh on ol' Sloby.

Feanor · 11-26-2007, 23:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gunnut

In hind sight, we probably were a bit too harsh on ol' Sloby.

Jokes aside he was ideal. He was a dictator that had little affiliations with Western Europe. He was a hard line Serbian nationalist backed by Russia. He was violently anti-Islamic. He could've done every dirty and unpleasant thing to keep Islam in the Balkans at bay, and Europeans hands would've been clean. And they could blame Russia too while they were at it. Instead they had to go in a remove him, murdering quite a few civilians while at it, and instead destroy his country entirely, all the way down to Montenegro gaining independence in a fraudulent and corrupted vote only a couple of years ago. I don't see anything intelligent about it.

Ray · 11-27-2007, 00:33 AM

Quote:

An unhealthy state

In blaming the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina for reform failures, the international community seeks to exclude its own role from scrutiny

Ian Bancroft

November 26, 2007 12:30 PM | Printable version

In an article for the International Herald Tribune last year, Christian Schwarz-Schilling, the fifth high representative of Bosnia and Herzegovina, wrote that "it is my task as Bosnia's last high representative to oversee the transition from today's quasi-protectorate to local ownership". Yet in a speech before the UN security council on November 15, his successor, Miroslav Lajčák, stressed that discussion over the closure of the office of the high representative "is a long way off". In a little over 18 months, Bosnia and Herzegovina's position as a quasi-protectorate has been reiterated and reinforced. Justifications for this retreat have been found not in the existence of inter-ethnic tension or security concerns, but through the articulation of a political crisis that supposedly threatens the future existence of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

During a press conference on October 19, Lajčák announced - without having consulted domestic politicians - measures designed to streamline the functioning of the state institutions by changing the voting procedures used by the parliament and council of ministers.

Coming only a week after the failure of the country's politicians to reach agreement over police reform, this initiative has been widely interpreted as one of reproachment for alleged "obstructionism"; though the steering board of the Peace Implementation Council eagerly stated on October 31 that "the only objective of the measures is to streamline the decision-making process in the council of ministers and the parliament".

A day after the PIC had publicly endorsed Lajčák's actions, though with severe reservations expressed by the Russian delegation as to their timing, the chairman of the council of ministers, Nikola Spiric, resigned with the unequivocal assertion that "Bosnia and Herzegovina is absurd. If the international community always supports the high representative and not the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then it doesn't matter if I am the head of that state, or Bart Simpson".

As the tripartite presidency struggles to find a replacement, the need for new parliamentary elections becomes ever more apparent, providing a further hurdle to Bosnia and Herzegovina's reform process. Members of the main Bosnian Serb party, the Party of Independent Social Democrats, have threatened to resign en masse from their government posts if the high representative's decision is not reconsidered. Throughout the Republika Srpska, some 10,000 Bosnian Serbs took part in protests and over 300,000 have signed a petition against the recent measures, illustrating the strength and depth of public opposition.

Though Lajčák immediately dismissed this resulting political crisis as artificial, the amendments proposed and soon to be imposed go to the heart of two of the most contentious and important debates within Bosnia and Herzegovina - the role of the international community and the protection of group rights as enshrined in the consensual model of decision-making prescribed by Dayton.

By changing the way the ethnically-based quorum is calculated, Lajčák's decision removes the requirement of consensus amongst Bosnia and Herzegovina's three constituent nations - Bosniacs, Bosnian Croats and Bosnian Serbs - potentially allowing for one of the constituent nations to be outvoted by the other two. By insisting that he will impose the reforms if they are not adopted by December 1, Lajčák has further stifled the development of representative elected bodies and a democratic culture. Issues of this importance and magnitude need to be dealt with through full and frank discussion amongst Bosnia and Herzegovina's political elites and citizens, not through stated technical-bureaucratic initiatives. As the departed Spiric observed, Bosnia and Herzegovina "is unfortunately not a sovereign state".

In the light of recent failures over police and constitutional reform, this intentional confrontation has been engineered by the high representative's office to bolster its own position vis-à-vis domestic actors and to galvanise international opinion about the necessity of its preservation. This political crisis has been generated not by a conflict between Bosnia and Herzegovina's domestic political actors, but by the actions of the high representative, with damaging implications for social and political cohesion.

Earlier this month, the deputy high representative, Raffi Gregorian, told a joint committee of the Senate and House of Representatives in Washington that if such reforms weren't supported, Bosnia and Herzegovina's "'very survival could be determined in the next few months if not the next few weeks". Meanwhile, the commander of Eufor, the EU's peacekeeping force in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hans-Jochen Witthauer, reassured nobody by saying that "'we can again intervene in case a new war breaks out". There are already signs that these accumulated statements are fuelling inflation, as a sense of instability and crisis breeds panic buying that is driving up the price of staple goods. In a country already beset with high unemployment and weak growth, these latest events will do little to attract foreign investment and encourage trade.

The issue around which substantial disagreement and conjecture have revolved further illustrates the often divisive and unconstructive role of the international community and the ambivalent motivations behind specific reforms. As a recent report by the European Stability Initiative scrupulously argues, police reform - over which progress towards signing a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU has stumbled - is motivated not by internal security concerns, progress on which has been a major achievement of the post-war period, but by political considerations - namely, the internal structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Despite the existence of a plethora of policing models throughout Europe, such as those in Germany, Switzerland and Belgium, the strict and inflexible requirement that Bosnia and Herzegovina introduce a centralised police structure abuses and undermines the potential of EU conditionality.

That this political crisis is attributable to decisions taken by the international community highlights the paradoxical position it occupies. The international community has a pivotal role to play in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but articulating political crises as a means through which to recover lost credibility and legitimacy undermines its capacity to act as a reform mediator.

Confrontational politics of this sort does little to generate a political climate in which consensus and compromise can be achieved. Instead, such destabilisation affects those who must contend daily with the rising cost of living and a ever gloomier economic outlook. Former high representative Lord Ashdown once remarked that the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina "have to decide who to vote for in the elections. This country has to mature." In regularly pinning blame on the people and their politicians for reform failures, the international community has sought to exclude itself from scrutiny and responsibility. As such, the irony of Lajčák's words is not lost when he says that "it is clear to everyone that Bosnia and Herzegovina doesn't function as a healthy and normal state".

Comment is free: An unhealthy state

Is the international community blame free?

Ray · 11-30-2007, 00:57 AM

In fact, with Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo etc, there looms the dangers of fundamentalists in Islam touching base in Europe.

http://www.epc.eu/TEWN/pdf/81451702_...%20Balkans.pdf

BALKAN MUSLIMS AND THE FUTURE OF ISLAM IN EUROPE

Therefore, while Kosovo may take European and US help to rid itself of Serbia, it may at a later stage, realise its niche and be a part of the growing Islamic spread in the world!

I fear the same short-sighted backfiring as was with the arming of the Mujahideens in Afghanistan against the Soviets.

Ray · 12-21-2007, 22:39 PM

Quote:

Defining moment for the Balkans

The year 2008 will be a decisive one for the Balkans, particularly for Kosovo, Serbia proper, Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. And as the international community dangles carrots and offers up unearned rewards in an attempt to appease the perceived losers in the Kosovo status game, regardless of the outcome, bloodshed is likely.

Editor's Note: This is the first in ISN Security Watch's 2008 Prognosis series. Please find a link to the entire series at the end of this article.

Prognosis by Anes Alic for ISN Security Watch (21/12/07)

The political and security focus in the Balkans in 2008 will depend on the outcome of a status resolution for the Serbian province of Kosovo, whose ethnic Albanian leaders have vowed to declare independence in February.

The international community will be closely monitoring developments in other countries in the region, fearing that a unilateral proclamation of independence in Kosovo and Serbia's reaction could profoundly affect particularly Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Should Kosovo declare independence, international community officials involved in the process are preparing for a low-level insurgency. International forces already have begun boosting their military and police strength, faced with the possibility that an insurgency could spill over into Macedonia, southern Serbia and Bosnia.

Whatever decision on Kosovo is made, some form of violence is inevitable, and the international community is hoping that its forces in the form of the Kosovo Force (KFOR) and the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) will manage to keep the situation under control. Even though both sides, the ethnic Albanians and Serbs, have called for a peaceful end to the status process, they have also made it clear that they will accept nothing short of a decision in their respective favors. Both sides have armed paramilitary forces ready to "defend their homeland."

Likely scenarios

Should Kosovo's Albanian leaders fulfill their promise and proclaim unilateral independence in February - a move that will largely depend on the level of the support from western powers - several scenarios are likely, though the order in which they are played out is less predictable.

First of all, the Serbian majority in northern Kosovo will reject an independence proclamation and seek form of autonomy for the area in an attempt to remain tied to Serbia proper. Indeed, Serbian enclaves in Kosovo are still completely politically and financially integrated with Serbia, including administratively and with regard to schools, health care and retirement funds.

On 11 December 2007, Serbia opened a government office in Kosovo's ethnically divided town of Mitrovica, saying it would "serve to intensify Belgrade's parallel network of services for Serbs." The move was criticized by the UN, which called the move a deliberate provocation.

However, the creation of a Serbian majority entity within the borders of an independent Kosovo will resound throughout other former Yugoslav republics - all of which have their own disgruntled minorities whose political representatives have promised greater autonomy.

For its part, the Albanian minority in southern Serbia has warned that if Kosovo Serbs create an autonomous entity in the province, the ethnic Albanians in that region would attempt to create a similar autonomous entity there.

Next in line would be Macedonia, whose 25 percent ethnic Albanian minority and their radical leaders have pledged an armed rebellion and secession from the country, with the aim of integrating with Kosovo. However, such a move lacks support from ethnic Albanian political leaders in the Macedonian government.

Since November 2007, Macedonian paramilitary groups, led by the Albanian National Army (ANA) - a group operating in Kosovo and Macedonia and listed as a terrorist organization by the US and the EU - threatened to renew the 2001 rebellion and already has clashed several times with Macedonian forces, which have very limited authority in the areas of the country bordering Kosovo.

Macedonian secessionists are closely monitoring the Kosovo status solution, and regardless of the outcome, Macedonia will face political and security instability.

Finally, the final Kosovo solution will have a serious ripple effect in Bosnia-Herzegovina and pose grave consequences for the country's territorial integrity.

Bosnia's Serb-dominated entity of Republika Srpska was created during the war on the territory the Bosnian Serb military conquered between 1992 and 1995. By the end of the war, Republika Srpska was a largely ethnically cleansed territory, legalized by the Dayton Peace Agreement.

Since 1996, most international community efforts have been focused on stripping powers (both economic and military) from the country's separate entities and, for all intents and purposes, doing away with these separate governments and working toward a unified country.

However, Republika Srpska's existence as a separate entity created through the results of a military conflict and based on a simple ethnic majority has in some respects legitimized the calls of other separatists in the region.

Politicians in Republika Srpska, which comprises 49 percent of Bosnian territory, have warned that should Kosovo declare or be granted independence by the international community, they will hold a referendum among Bosnian Serbs to vote on secession from Bosnia and annexation to Serbia. According to a November 2007 public opinion poll held in Republika Srpska, 77 percent of Bosnian Serbs believed Serbs should break away from Bosnia if Kosovo Albanians seceded from Serbia.
Waiting on Belgrade

It is still not clear how Serbia will react should Kosovo gain independence, though Belgrade has said that a military response is not an option.It has threatened to impose an economic and travel blockade on Kosovo in the event that the province declared independence. Such a move would include cutting telephone and electricity services, which could paralyze the province for some time.

Whether Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders will choose to unilaterally declare independence depends largely on the amount of perceived support for such a move from western power houses. It is expected that the US and a handful of EU countries will be the first in the line to officially recognize an independent Kosovo.

Serbia has not of yet announced a course of action against those countries that choose to officially recognize an independent Kosovo. But Belgrade could decide to sever diplomatic ties with and recall its ambassadors from those countries. Initiating trade embargoes with the latter, however, would have a negative impact on the Serbian economy.

Belgrade's most probable course of action will be through "legalese" in the form of declaring the ethnic Albanian parts of Kosovo in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 by seceding from the sovereign territory of Serbia.

Serbia could use this resolution to keep the northern part of Kosovo and its Serbian majority under Belgrade's authority.

The Kosovo issue will be the focus of the upcoming Serbian presidential elections set for 20 January, even though more or less all candidates hold the same stance concerning Kosovo - that it is an integral part of Serbia.

Outside forces and appeasement rewards

The success of eventual international recognition of an independent Kosovo will also depend on Russia's reaction. So far, the traditional Serbian ally has managed to block all western efforts to grant Kosovo independence, but has stopped short of suggesting an alternative solution other than to opine that no decision can be made on Kosovo without Belgrade's approval.

Presumably, Russia will continue to insist on further negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, though the US, Britain and France rejected such a call on 12 December, after another round of talks failed and it became clear that finding a solution to satisfy all parties would be impossible.

Regarding the unstable political and security situation in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, in 2008 the EU will step up efforts to bring those two countries closer to integration.

In November and December 2007, the EU initialed the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, the first step toward membership, even though the two countries showed no visible progress. The signings were widely seen as an attempt to appease local leaders and prevent radicalization.

On 17 November, the EU initialed the SAA with Serbia, despite the fact that the main obstacle to the agreement, Serbia's failure to arrest and hand over Bosnian Serb wartime general Ratko Mladic, has not been cleared. Then on 4 December, the EU initialed the same agreement with Bosnia, even though just weeks before, the country was facing the worst political crisis in its post-war history.

One of the main pre-negotiation conditions between Bosnia and the EU is police and constitution reform, both intended to strengthen state-level institutions. Since 2005, local leaders have failed to make any progress on these reforms due the Bosnian Serb fears that the suspension of the separate Republika Srpska police and further stripping of its power through constitutional changes would ultimately mean the entity's demise. Now that the international community has postponed the police reform requirement, some progress can be expected in 2008, as long it does not interfere with ethnic interests.

The initialing of the SAA with Bosnia-Herzegovina was made possible after local leaders pledged to solve the problem of police reform or face international community sanctions. Nonetheless, progress on these reforms in 2008 is unlikely, as the country's ethnic leaders have not changed their stances and show no signs of budging to reach consensus.

For its part, Serbia can expect quicker EU integration as it holds the key to stability in its hands, with EU country leaders describing Serbia "as the region's lynchpin," which must not be allowed to "destabilize."

Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who will take over the EU's rotating presidency in January, said in a recent statement that Serbia could win EU membership candidate status in mid-2008.

A similar message was sent following a 14 December meeting of EU leaders in Brussels, where they stressed that independence for Kosovo from Serbia was inevitable but that Serbia could earn itself expedited EU accession on two conditions: that it fully cooperate with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, with or without arrest of Ratko Mladic, and that is recognize an independent Kosovo. At the same meeting, EU leaders also agreed in principle to send a 1,800-strong security force to Kosovo.

But even if Serbia were to accept these two conditions, which Belgrade initially rejected, it would spark heated discussion within the EU, where some members fear that granting Kosovo independence without Serbia's explicit approval could undermine their own territorial integrity. Russia, opposing Kosovo's independence, continues to argue that half a dozen ethnic enclaves around the Black Sea would be inspired to declare independence following the Kosovo example.
ISN Security Watch - Defining moment for the Balkans

The Colonel's (OoE) repeated contention that it will explode irrespective of what is decided seems to be a reality.

There will be a serious fallout and it will be exploited by all parties including the Islamic radicals and then the world will regret for its petty bloody mindedness!

**Ironduke** · 01-15-2008, 14:19 PM

I can see spilling over into Macedonia... they had their own problem with an insurgency just a few years back IIRC.

Khan_Han · 01-16-2008, 02:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor

Should've left Milosevic alone. At least he would've kept Islam at bay.

Who was going to keep Turkey at bay? It is well documented that Turkey had stated that if NATO does not intervene it will on its own. No one will turn a blind eye to ethnic clensing. Especially in the middle of Europe!

**Ironduke** · 01-16-2008, 02:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Khan_Han

Who was going to keep Turkey at bay? It is well documented that Turkey had stated that if NATO does not intervene it will on its own. No one will turn a blind eye to ethnic clensing. Especially in the middle of Europe!

The last time Turkey threatened intervention in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Russians threatened them with WWIII. They backed off.

Khan_Han · 01-16-2008, 05:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ironduke

The last time Turkey threatened intervention in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Russians threatened them with WWIII. They backed off.

And what did our NATO allies the US do my friend? Also, what did Turkey do in Cyprus?

**Officer of Engineers** · 01-16-2008, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Khan_Han

Who was going to keep Turkey at bay? It is well documented that Turkey had stated that if NATO does not intervene it will on its own. No one will turn a blind eye to ethnic clensing. Especially in the middle of Europe!

No, they didn't. That is a simple myth. Turkey could not mount the expedition necessary.

10-09-2007, 16:50 PM	#2 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 27,114 Country:	It will also be the start of another international beggar bowl and basket case nation! __________________ "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination." I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to. HAKUNA MATATA

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10-09-2007, 22:27 PM	#3 (permalink)
Expat Canuck Homesick Fool *Military Professional* Join Date: 05-17-05 Location: Melbourne, Australia Posts: 1,020 Country:	We could use more of those..........

11-26-2007, 22:50 PM	#5 (permalink)
Feanor Banished Join Date: 06-12-07 Location: San Jose, CA Posts: 2,385 Country:	Should've left Milosevic alone. At least he would've kept Islam at bay.

11-30-2007, 00:57 AM	#9 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 27,114 Country:	In fact, with Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo etc, there looms the dangers of fundamentalists in Islam touching base in Europe. http://www.epc.eu/TEWN/pdf/81451702_...%20Balkans.pdf BALKAN MUSLIMS AND THE FUTURE OF ISLAM IN EUROPE Therefore, while Kosovo may take European and US help to rid itself of Serbia, it may at a later stage, realise its niche and be a part of the growing Islamic spread in the world! I fear the same short-sighted backfiring as was with the arming of the Mujahideens in Afghanistan against the Soviets.

01-15-2008, 14:19 PM	#11 (permalink)
Ironduke Burgomaster Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 6,847 Country:	I can see spilling over into Macedonia... they had their own problem with an insurgency just a few years back IIRC.

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