Geopolitical Risk Rises in F.Y.R.O.M.

Ray · 09-14-2007, 12:58 PM

Quote:

''Intelligence Brief: Geopolitical Risk Rises in F.Y.R.O.M.''

Geopolitical risk in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (F.Y.R.O.M.) is on the rise after ethnic clashes involving the Albanian minority broke out last week. Ethnic tensions and rivalry over territory are threatening to destabilize the young republic, complicating the political situation in the western Balkans. Kosovo, which is seeking independence from Serbia, and other southern territories in Serbia near the villages of Bujanovac and Konculj are likely to suffer from a new wave of Albanian-Slavic inter-ethnic conflict in the F.Y.R.O.M.

On Monday, September 10, a policeman and an armed man were killed during clashes in the ethnic Albanian region that borders Kosovo. Such events prompted official statements from Skopje's politicians. While government officials have qualified the killings as criminal-related incidents, opposition leaders from the Social-Democratic party warned about the political significance of the recent clashes. The reason is that in 2001 ethnic conflict between Albanians and Slavic citizens erupted in the region.

For the moment, it is difficult to predict the exact nature of the recent clashes. One fact, however, is clear: if the ongoing turmoil transforms into a perpetual conflict, Skopje's promising economic outlook will be dealt a serious blow, and international economic players may cool down their interest in new investments. Macedonia is currently a candidate for E.U. integration and is also expected to join N.A.T.O. in 2008, and the last development its rulers and citizens need is a revival of ethnic conflict.

Skopje's rigorous monetary policy, its goodwill in implementing E.U. directives for economic policy, cheap labor and foreign investments have created a quickly improving economic environment during the past few years. Investors were confident, political stability was more than acceptable for a country that confronted the risk of ethnic conflicts, and the march toward Euro-Atlantic integration seemed unstoppable. Now, as the Kosovo question is heading toward a crucial breakthrough in November and December (with elections and new decisions by the E.U. and the U.N. expected), and as Serbia confronts its Albanian question once again, Skopje's political destiny is more than ever linked to its geopolitical context.

Macedonia's political geography is complex. Its relatively small territory is the home of different national identities, which have often been on opposing sides of each other during conflicts. After the demise of the former Yugoslavia, ethnic rivalry has been dramatically revived from Slovenia to Macedonia and was one of the main causes of the bloody Bosnian and Kosovo wars. Serbs, Albanians, Macedonians, and Greeks all have geopolitical interests over F.Y.R.O.M.'s territory, although of diverse nature.

Because national boundaries do not match ethnic and cultural ones, some had predicted during the 1990s that Macedonia's Albanian minority would have clashed against the central government just like in Serbia, or even that faith-driven conflict would have opposed Albanian Muslim to the Slavic Christian/Orthodox majority. That bleak forecast did not come true until now, even though the 2001 incidents were a dangerous signal of the underlying tensions.

After last week's clashes, however, Western decision-makers and investors will have to monitor the situation in F.Y.R.O.M. more closely. Moreover, regional stability will be challenged in the coming months. While the most powerful geopolitical trend in the western Balkans is the progressive integration of the region within the E.U. and N.A.T.O., mismanagement of the Kosovo question may trigger a dangerous chain reaction. The worst case scenario is one where Kosovo's stalemate transforms into open conflict between Belgrade and Pristina, with the involvement of some southern Serbian regions and Macedonia.

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of enquiries@pinr.com. PINR reprints do not qualify under Fair-Use Statute Section 107 of the Copyright Act. All comments should be directed to comments@pinr.com.

PINR - Intelligence Brief: Geopolitical Risk Rises in F.Y.R.O.M.

Kosovo and now Macedonia.

There sure will be a serious confrontation in the near future.

With the Islamic radicalism stated to be on the rise in this area (though it is nowhere near the Middle East and other Islamic countries in fervour), would there be a case of a clash of civilsations?

With the US backing the Moslems in Europe so as to break the Russian influence, it would be more of a NATO and Russia confrontation than the Islamic - West standoff?

Ray · 09-14-2007, 13:19 PM

Quote:

Macedonian rumblings

UCK/NLA logo from Wikipedia2007-09-13 Clashes between ethnic Albanians and Macedonian security forces in villages near the border with Kosovo mirror those of the 2001 conflict when civil war was narrowly avoided . And while Macedonian officials deny that anything significant is afoot, these rumblings could be a sign that tensions over Kosovo are reverberating across the region.

Several incidents involving ethnic Albanians in Macedonia and the country's security forces are threatening a renewed conflict, in a situation many are linking to recent developments regarding the future status of the Serbian province of Kosovo.

Six years after an internationally supervised peace agreement prevented further clashes in 2001 - clashes that were on the verge of precipitating a civil war - and only two years after Macedonia gained EU candidate status in 2005, renewed violence portends a dangerous regression.

The incidents, all on the border with Kosovo, echoed those in 2001, when ethnic Albanian paramilitary groups, under the umbrella of the National Liberation Army (NLA), began forcefully taking control of villages bordering Kosovo, displacing non-Albanian civilians and clashing with Macedonian security forces.

The first took place early last month, when alleged ethnic Albanians attacked a police station in Gosince, near the border with Kosovo. This incident was followed by a similar one on 31 August, in which ethnic Albanians clashed with security forces near the mountain village of Tanusevci, also bordering restive Kosovo.

Then, on 10 September, an ethnic Albanian Macedonian police commander was shot dead and two other police officers were injured in a gunfight in the nearby village of Vaksince. One gunman was also killed and two others injured.

Local Albanian paramilitary commanders had warned Macedonian security forces that they would not be welcome in Tanusevci, saying that the village was under the control of the inhabitants themselves. Clashes erupted when police chose not to heed the warning and attempted to enter the village.

Macedonian media reported that all civilians fled the village, most likely crossing the border into Kosovo, and that only members of ethnic Albanian paramilitary units were left in the village. There are reportedly no Macedonian borders guards at this Kosovo crossing, and the nearest police patrol is some 20 kilometers away.

Déjà vu

The renewed clashes between ethnic Albanian militants and Macedonia's security forces are being viewed as belated reprisals for the 2001 insurgency, which left some 100 people dead (according to official figures which are disputed by many) and 170,000 displaced.

Clashes between Macedonian security forces and armed groups of the NLA began in January 2001 in the same mountain region in Northwestern Macedonia as the August/September 2007 incidents.

The 2001 clashes saw the ethnic Albanian minority, which comprises around 25 percent of the population, demanding greater educational rights, as well as representation in the government, armed forces and police.

Clashes ended in August 2001 when the government and rebels signed the EU and NATO-mediated Orhid peace agreement calling for greater recognition of ethnic Albanian rights in exchange for a rebel pledge to hand over weapons to NATO peacekeeping forces.

Ethnic Albanian insurgents also agreed to drop any separatist demands and to fully recognize all Macedonian institutions. In return, the Macedonian government pledged to make the Albanian language an official language and to increase the participation of ethnic Albanians in government institutions, the police and the army.

Still, even after the peace accord, ethnic Albanian officials have not been fully satisfied with the resultant changes - a situation that has continued to cause much tension between the ruling conservatives and the largest ethnic Albanian opposition party, the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI).

Downplaying danger

The Macedonian government has denied that the recent incidents are in any way a reflection of a renewed insurgency and refuse any comparisons to the 2001 conflict. Instead, government officials claim the clashes were criminal, and unrelated to minority disputes.

Macedonian Interior Minister Gordana Jankulovska, speaking to parliament, said of the clashes, "they can't be put in the context of politics. This is not a security question."

The government believes that the area where clashes occurred is being used as a hideaway by ethnic Albanian militants indicted for various crimes in Kosovo and during the 2001 conflict in Macedonia.

Macedonian media said that seven Kosovo Albanians recently escaped from a high-security prison in Kosovo and another in Macedoni, finding shelter in Tanusevci. (Allegedly all the escaped inmates were sentenced for atrocities committed in the Kosovo and Macedonian conflicts.) Reports say that police were heading to the village to arrest the suspects when they were attacked by a paramilitary unit.

However, other observers, including western diplomats, fear that the recent incidents could be linked to the process of finalizing Kosovo's status - over which their has been a deepening crisis in recent months, with talk now of partition.

Unable to reach a compromise on Kosovo's final status - with ethnic Albanians saying they will settle for nothing short of full independence and the Serbian government unwilling to consider this and offering only broader autonomy – the international community, which is supervising talks launched in 2006, is out of solutions acceptable to both sides.

There have been reports suggesting that the international community might accept the partition of the province, but only if the two sides agree. So far, officials from both sides have rejected the idea. However, there are rumors that Serbian and Kosovo Albanian delegations have used recent backdoor diplomacy to inform European officials of options for a partition.

International mediators have a 10 December deadline to report to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on progress in the talks. After that date, the US and EU will have to decide whether to recognize Kosovo's independence.

Dominoes

Western diplomats warn that if Kosovo moves towards partitition it could set a dangerous separatist precedent for the entire region. Macedonia would be first in the line, and similar moves could be triggered in Bosnia's Serb-dominated Republika Srpska entity, or even among Bosnia's Croats, who have been haggling to carve the country up into a third, Croat, entity.

In addition, in mid-August, a former member of parliament and the leader the Albanian guerrillas, Xhezair Shaqiri (aka Commander Hoxha), announced that the Macedonian village of Tanusevci was preparing a referendum on seceding from Macedonia and becoming a part of Kosovo.

Shaqiri told the Skopje-based Albanian-language daily Fakti that the "Macedonian government is showing absolutely no interest in this part of the country, while Tanusevci and Kosovo are linked geographically and have many family ties."

Soon after, two more nearby villages, Brest and Malino, also stated they would organize referendums on separation from Macedonia and merger with Kosovo.

As such, international mediators involved in the status negotiation process have emphatically stressed that any partition of Kosovo would only deal with the province's Serb-dominated northern part, which may become a part of Serbia proper. But momentum for border changes could reverberate throughout the region, taking the issue beyond the control of the international community.

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ISA Portal - Macedonian rumblings

09-14-2007, 13:21 PM	#3 (permalink)
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