Fears abound over stalled Kosovo status

Ray · 06-29-2007, 02:43 AM

Quote:

Fears abound over stalled Kosovo status

Motel Restaurant ODA E JUNIKUT (litscherFlickr)
Image: litscher, Flickr

As Kosovo status talks stall, western diplomats try to decide what to do next to avoid a descent into violence and a collapse of the Kosovo Albanian leadership.

By Tim Judah for ISN Security Watch (26/06/07)

Progress on resolving the future status of Kosovo has stalled. "We are nowhere," says a diplomat in Brussels close to the process.

More than 18 months after former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari was asked by the UN to begin work on finding a final status solution for Serbia's disputed southern province, all forward momentum is now blocked and the diplomats of the world's most powerful countries appear at a loss as to do what to do next.

Ever since the end of the war eight years ago, Kosovo has been under the jurisdiction of the UN. Of its 2 million people, some 90 percent are ethnic Albanians, who are solid in their determination that Kosovo should become an independent state.

Kosovo Serbs, who number perhaps 130,000, are solid in their determination that Kosovo should remain part of Serbia, as is Serbia's leadership.

Kosovo's current status is regulated by UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which states that Kosovo is part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to which Serbia is the legal successor state. However, the resolution also stipulates that full account be taken of the 1999 Rambouillet Accords, which spoke of a final settlement "recognizing the will of the people."

For much of last year, Ahtisaari oversaw desultory talks in Vienna between Serbs and Kosovo Albanians on the future of the province. When they could not, as was widely foreseen, reach agreement, he formulated a plan that was presented to the Security Council on 26 March.

The plan calls for "supervised independence." That is to say that while Kosovo would become an independent state, the current 17,000-strong NATO-led peacekeeping force would remain while the UN mission in Kosovo, known as UNMIK, would be replaced by two others. The biggest of these would be an EU police and justice mission, while the smaller would be a so called International Civilian Office (ICO) headed by an International Civilian Representative (ICR) who would exercise extremely strong powers in the new country.

For the moment though all of this remains theoretical. Western diplomats who worked on Kosovo had assumed that despite its reservations Russia would eventually trade Kosovo's independence for a gain elsewhere. However, until now, that has proved not to be the case.

Originally, Kosovo Albanians were led to believe by their leaders, who were egged on by western diplomats, that Kosovo would become independent by the end of last year. However, the presentation of the Ahtisaari plan was postponed because Serbia's leaders asked for time in which to hold a general election. After that, Kosovo Albanians told their leaders that the territory would be independent by the end of May this year. Then it was hoped that a deal would be done at the G-8 summit in early June. Now similar, if increasingly forlorn, hope is turning to the summit between US President George W Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kennebunkport on 1-2 July.
No Plan B

For some months before Ahtisaari presented his plan, Russia began to voice ever more vocal opposition to it. Putin and other Russian officials said that as Kosovo had only been a province of Serbia and not a Yugoslav republic it did not have a right to independence, and that if it did become independent, international law would be violated and a precedent set for frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union and beyond.

"I told my colleagues that this time the Russians were serious and they meant it," says a senior EU diplomat from a former communist country who talked to ISN Security Watch, "but they just said, 'we know what we are doing.'"

In the same vein, diplomats questioned by ISN Security Watch over the last year as to what Plan B would be in case Russia made plain it would not allow Kosovo to become independent, at least through a resolution of the Security Council expressing support for the Ahtisaari plan, have consistently replied that there was no Plan B. And indeed, it seems that there was not.

Last week, a new draft resolution on the future of Kosovo was circulated at the UN. It drew heavily on an idea proposed by France's new president Nicholas Sarkozy at the G8 summit. The draft suggests that there should be 120 more days of discussion after which the Ahtisaari plan would come into force "unless the Security Council expressly decides otherwise."

Russia instantly objected, and so it seems that this idea is now dead, or at least mortally wounded. It is now hoped that presidents Bush and Putin can break the deadlock at Kennebunkport.

However, there appears to be no reason why they should, especially as Bush told Albanians in Tirana on 10 June: "We need to get to moving […] and the end result is independence." By contrast, Russian officials say almost daily that they will only consent to something agreed between Serbs and Albanians, which is tantamount to a Serbian veto over the process.

Some now believe that the diplomatic initiative to resolve the status of Kosovo will fizzle out until France is president of the Security Council in September. Others believe that Russia will not budge on the Kosovo issue until both parliamentary and presidential elections are over, the first being in December and the latter in March next year.
Fears of another war

In the meantime, western diplomats have begun scrambling for a workable Plan B. Time is of the essence now because as Karen Pierce, the UK's deputy permanent representative to the UN said last week: "One should bear in mind the ability of events on the ground, particularly in the Balkans, to overtake what we might want to do here in New York, if we don't address the concerns of the people of Kosovo."

Indeed, since all of Kosovo's elected leaders have promised that Kosovo would already be independent, the fear is that their credibility will collapse and, as what happened in the late 1990s, formerly fringe elements would move to claim the center ground.

An attempt to do this already seems to be under way. Addressing veterans of the Kosovo Liberation Army, the former guerrilla army that battled the Serbs in 1998-99, Abdyl Mushkolaj, chairman of one of the main veteran's associations said last week that the officially disbanded KLA was only "on a ceasefire." Referring to the blood of fallen comrades, he said: "I have already said it a thousand times and I am reiterating it, that if the national issue is jeopardized - and it can only be jeopardized by Serbia - there is no doubt that there will be another war here.

On 30 June, a demonstration against the current situation is planned in Kosovo. If this, or future rallies, turn violent, as did demonstrations in February, then the signs are that this would suit Serbia because it would help to tarnish the Kosovo Albanian cause in the rest of the world.

Likewise, Russia would not suffer if violence broke out in the province as it withdrew its own troops in 2003. Indeed, there is a growing belief amongst western diplomats that if violence did break out, Russians such as Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, would positively relish the difficulties faced by western countries with troops or other personnel there on the ground because they were personally humiliated in 1999 when NATO went to war with Serbia over Kosovo and they were unable to prevent it. At that time, Lavrov was Russia's permanent representative at the UN. In other words, this would be sweet revenge.

So, in an effort to avoid a descent into violence and a collapse of the Kosovo Albanian leadership, western diplomats are trying to decide what to do next.
Seeking a way forward

Several issues have become clear over the last few weeks. The first is that if a resolution is tabled at the UN that would lead to Kosovo's independence, Russia would veto it. Secondly, a US threat to recognize Kosovo's independence bilaterally if its Albanians declared independence without waiting for a UN resolution, has gone into abeyance.

The reason for this is that EU diplomats have insisted that there can be no EU mission in Kosovo to replace the UN without a resolution. So far, the EU is united on the issue; however, beyond that a number of new questions have arisen. The first is whether the EU should support a two-tier resolution strategy, which is an evolution on the thinking behind the current draft.

The difference is however that the first resolution would not demand a new Security Council resolution to stop the Ahtisaari plan coming into force. It would replace the UN with the EU and ICO and foresee a review after a year or so at which it would be hoped Russia would then consent to Kosovo's sovereignty. While some in Brussels and especially in the Council of the EU are believed to favor this tack, others are against it. The former see this as an opportunity to give an impression of momentum to Kosovo's Albanians, while opponents see grave dangers in this approach.

The opponents argue that if the EU came to Kosovo to support what would in effect be a continuation of the status quo, the mission would risk failure as it would arrive in a sullen and hostile Kosovo as opposed to the friendly, post-independence one which was envisaged for it when it was planned.

However, these two ideas are actually only the main ones now being considered. Indeed, one frustrated EU diplomat told ISN Security Watch that he would happy if, among the 27 member states, there were only two ideas of how to proceed.

Borut Grgic, an adviser to Kosovo's premier Agim Ceku, says "patience" among Kosovo's Albanians is not the problem. The real problem is that the Kosovo Albanian leadership fear that "western consensus and direction are falling apart.

"There no longer seems to be a clear light at the end of the tunnel. I just hope that the Americans and Europeans remain firm like the Russians. We had Ahtisaari but now it seems like we are back to Square One with 27 different voices."

ISN Security Watch - Fears abound over stalled Kosovo status

What's next?

Will Kosovo explode?

Effects on Serbia, Albania or Europe?

Effects on EU Russia relationship?

**Officer of Engineers** · 06-29-2007, 13:54 PM

Sir,

As I stated last year, it will be the status quo for a long time to come. Kosovo cannot survive without annexing southern Serbia and that would mean war that NATO would gladly step aside from and let Serbia clobber the Kosovo Albanians.

NATO money is keeping the place afloat. Once that's gone, Kosovo would become just another failed state looking to be annexed by either Serbia or Albania. Bet on Serbia.

Ray · 06-29-2007, 14:40 PM

Colonel,

Honestly, the Americanism comes to mind - a Goddamned Clusterfvck!

If what you say is correct. then why give them independence in the first place?

**Officer of Engineers** · 06-29-2007, 16:28 PM

So that we can say job's done and get the hell out of that clusterfvck. Sir, Kosovo is a crime infested cesspool. NATO's presence is allowing a drug trade, human trafficking, and a pedophile prostitution ring. I strongly doubt that NATO personnel are involved but there is no doubt that crime is flourishing ... and we want nothing to do with it.

Ray · 06-30-2007, 00:35 AM

Heavens!

Garry · 07-03-2007, 13:28 PM

But is there other viable scenario? I mean there are two alternatives - Kosovo independent.... and another Kosovo is an autonomy within Serbia....

I don't see both scenarios realistacally possible.... what then!?!?!?

**Officer of Engineers** · 07-03-2007, 14:17 PM

The current one - NATO/EU being blackmailed into staying a long, long, long time.

Garry · 07-03-2007, 15:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

The current one - NATO/EU being blackmailed into staying a long, long, long time.

Seems like this is the only one left..... when there is no good solution maybe better to avoid making decisions and wait.... But then I agraid that locals may start attacking NATO troops....

**Officer of Engineers** · 07-03-2007, 18:41 PM

Meaning that we will leave that much sooner ... and leave the 2nd Kosovo War to be fought by themselves.

Ray · 07-04-2007, 01:59 AM

And Turbulent will flow the Kosovo River with gory red!

MrFirst · 07-07-2007, 06:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garry

But is there other viable scenario? I mean there are two alternatives - Kosovo independent.... and another Kosovo is an autonomy within Serbia....

I don't see both scenarios realistacally possible.... what then!?!?!?

There is the only real way - to leave it back to Serbia. Because noone besides Serbia doesn't want to get it, and eventually Kosovo risks to become the same sort of country like arab Palestina, the stray land of permanent chaos and disorder. The Kosovo's neighbours and other states will run from it like from leprous - as it takes place in case of Palestina. There is no hope on NATO or UN, "too many cooks spoil the broth" and this is for ever.

lazybastard · 07-08-2007, 11:47 AM

Quote:

By Fatos Bytyci

PRISTINA, Serbia (Reuters) - Veterans of Kosovo's 1998-99 guerrilla war said on Sunday they were prepared to take up arms again if deadlock between the West and Russia continued to block the province's independence from Serbia.

Veterans of the ethnic Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) warned the international bodies running the territory, primarily the United Nations, not to block the process.

Kosovo Albanian leaders "should not accept any delay to a status decision, nor new talks, which would bring only new hostility", the veterans said in a statement published in several Kosovo newspapers. They called on parliament to declare independence.

If the demands are not met, "we the veterans of the KLA war will be forced to act as KLA soldiers to fulfill the oath of our national heroes", the statement said.

The KLA veterans' association represents rank-and-file fighters after many senior commanders entered politics and eventually Kosovo's government after the war. It is unclear how much support the KLA veterans enjoy.

The statement was the most direct warning from the KLA veterans since Serbia ally Russia slammed the brakes on a Western-backed drive at the United Nations to grant Kosovo's secession from Serbia after 8 years under U.N. administration.

Kosovo's 2 million Albanians, 90 percent of the population, are growing increasingly impatient for independence, having seen the West delay the decision twice last year to limit the expected fallout in Serbia.

The KLA waged a guerrilla war against Serb forces in 1998-99. Serbia's brutal response, expelling hundreds of thousands of Albanian civilians, drew NATO into an 11-week bombing campaign to drive out Serb forces.

Independent estimates put the civilian death toll at between 7,500 and 10,000, mostly Albanians. The territory is now patrolled by 16,000 NATO peacekeepers.

Russia has threatened to veto a Western-backed U.N. Security Council resolution effectively offering statehood.

The West is now considering more talks between Serbs and Albanians, after 13 months of dialogue that ended in stalemate in March.

But Kosovo's leaders are coming under increasing public pressure to declare independence unilaterally, a step diplomats say would split the 27-member EU and possibly trigger a breakaway bid by Serb-dominated northern Kosovo.

Kosovo guerrilla veterans warn of new war | International | Reuters

Ray · 07-09-2007, 12:52 PM

Quote:

U.S. Diplomat Hints at Delay for Kosovo Independence

By NICHOLAS WOOD
Published: July 9, 2007

DUBROVNIK, Croatia, July 8 — A senior United States diplomat, speaking at a conference in Croatia over the weekend, cast doubt on a quick resolution of Kosovo’s future, suggesting that an agreement that would enable it to claim independence might not come until next year.

The assessment by Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, is likely to be seen as a setback for Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian leadership. This spring, Western officials had held out hope that the future of the province, which technically remains part of Serbia, would be resolved within weeks. Mr. Fried told delegates at a conference on NATO’s enlargement in this seaside Croatian resort that he hoped Kosovo’s future could be resolved in the months leading up to the alliance’s summit meeting in Romania next April.

“I can’t give a precise date, but I suspect it will be a number of months before the Bucharest summit,” he said.

Mr. Fried’s comments are the clearest indication to date that the United States now acknowledges that it is unlikely that Russia will soon agree to a United Nations plan that would grant the province independence under supervision of a mission led by the European Union. Senior European Union politicians at the conference on Friday and Saturday also cast doubt on whether an agreement could be reached this summer.

For the past eight years, the region has been administered by the United Nations after a 78-day NATO-led bombing campaign forced Serbian security forces, accused of committing widespread atrocities against ethnic Albanians, to withdraw from the province. With increasing impatience, Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians, who make up 90 percent of the province’s population, are pressing for independence. But Russia is supporting Serbia in its opposition to independence for Kosovo.

Kosovo’s Albanian leaders had hoped that President Bush’s meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia this month might resolve the issue. But instead they left the Kosovo discussions to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov at a later date.

Western leaders and United Nations officials have also warned that further delays may ignite violence in the province.

On Thursday, Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general, issued a report to the Security Council saying that if the province’s “status remains undefined, there is a real risk that the progress achieved by the United Nations and the provisional institutions in Kosovo can begin to unravel.”

And on Friday, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, the NATO secretary general, said: “It is important at this moment for all to exercise restraint and calm. But I think on the other hand that we should prevent unnecessary delay in trying to find a solution.”

Despite those warnings, the emerging consensus among European and American policy makers is that the status quo will have to remain for months in the hope that Russia can eventually agree to a resolution allowing for effective independence for Kosovo. The gamble is that Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian leadership can maintain calm as long as it knows independence is not in doubt, Western diplomats here said.

“We are going to keep on working within the United Nations,” Mr. Fried said in an interview. “We are not going to be rigid and doctrinaire.” He was scheduled to meet with ethnic Albanian leaders in Kosovo on Monday.

Russia has rejected two draft resolutions in the Security Council, contending that an agreement between the Serbs and ethnic Albanians is necessary to resolve the issue. American officials have suggested that if Russia continues to reject the proposal before the United Nations, the United States could recognize Kosovo’s independence unilaterally.

But most European nations continue to seek a United Nations-sanctioned agreement.

“Britain and the U.S. thought the Russians would go along with this,” said a senior European politician with extensive knowledge of the Balkans, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of damaging the negotiations. “Now the entire strategy has blown up in their face.” But with the United States at odds with Russia over missile defense and other matters, Western officials also are conceding that the search for a resolution of the Kosovo issues may now be drawn out over many months.

“If you think that this is a passing phase in Russia, then you are dramatically wrong,” said Kai Eide, Norway’s senior diplomat and the author of a United Nations report in 2004 that first advocated Kosovo’s independence.

Mr. Fried, comparing the breakup of the Soviet Union to the breakup of Yugoslavia, of which Serbia was a part, said, “They look at Yugoslavia as a microcosm of the Soviet Union, and they hate this.”

Despite that, Mr. Eide and other European politicians said the West had to use the next year, if necessary, to find a solution that would gain Russian support. But so far, there are no alternative proposals.

Carl Bildt, Sweden’s foreign minister, said European foreign ministers recently discussed the possibility of alternative solutions that would lead to recognizing Kosovo without Security Council backing, but he said that “the consequences of going unilateral are quite severe,” and that it would be extremely difficult to find unanimous support among European Union nations.

But American and other officials warn that events in Kosovo may ultimately force Europe into taking a more resolute stance.

“If the U.N. resolution does not work out, the Europeans will have to ask themselves how much violence are they prepared to take?” one senior Western official said. At some point, he said, “hard decisions will have to be taken by the United States and Europe.”

Disappointing for Some, but one War Less

Better sense has prevailed or are people being just cussed and pig headed?

Garry · 07-10-2007, 03:51 AM

It is not easy to support Kosovo albanians independence and then deny same right to Basks, Kurds, Hungarians of Czech, Serbians of Bosnia, Corsicans.... Russians in northern Kazakhstan.... or in Eastern Ukraine.... British in Gibraltar.... etc.

I would rather NOT open this Pandora box..... I would prefer all of those to be within the states they are now.

The western powers are provocating albanians by ACCEPTING their independence from the begining. NOBODY would go to negotiate anything less than independence in such case..... and albanians do not!!! They are NOT FORCED to look for other solutions.... they KNOW that their independence is already APPROVED.... why to negotiate seriously?!?!?

I think this cowboy policy will backfire

Berkis · 07-10-2007, 08:05 AM

I don’t think that as a result of secession of Eritrea, for instance, Corsicans will demand their idependence more persistently. Did Chechens became more assertive after Montenegro seceeded?

Nations are linked by something much tighter than formal or legal ties. The real issue is not about the independence of Kosovo, but rather whether Serbia has some tools (apart from use of force) to keep Kosovo in its borders.

06-29-2007, 13:54 PM	#2 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 16,553 Country:	Sir, As I stated last year, it will be the status quo for a long time to come. Kosovo cannot survive without annexing southern Serbia and that would mean war that NATO would gladly step aside from and let Serbia clobber the Kosovo Albanians. NATO money is keeping the place afloat. Once that's gone, Kosovo would become just another failed state looking to be annexed by either Serbia or Albania. Bet on Serbia. __________________ Chimo

07-10-2007, 08:05 AM	#15 (permalink)
Berkis Regular Join Date: 04-28-07 Location: Latvia Posts: 72 Country:	I don’t think that as a result of secession of Eritrea, for instance, Corsicans will demand their idependence more persistently. Did Chechens became more assertive after Montenegro seceeded? Nations are linked by something much tighter than formal or legal ties. The real issue is not about the independence of Kosovo, but rather whether Serbia has some tools (apart from use of force) to keep Kosovo in its borders. __________________ Usus magister est optimus

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06-29-2007, 14:40 PM	#3 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 27,117 Country:	Colonel, Honestly, the Americanism comes to mind - a Goddamned Clusterfvck! If what you say is correct. then why give them independence in the first place?

06-29-2007, 16:28 PM	#4 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 16,553 Country:	So that we can say job's done and get the hell out of that clusterfvck. Sir, Kosovo is a crime infested cesspool. NATO's presence is allowing a drug trade, human trafficking, and a pedophile prostitution ring. I strongly doubt that NATO personnel are involved but there is no doubt that crime is flourishing ... and we want nothing to do with it.

06-30-2007, 00:35 AM	#5 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 27,117 Country:	Heavens!

07-03-2007, 13:28 PM	#6 (permalink)
Garry *Defense Professional* Join Date: 06-18-04 Posts: 1,619	But is there other viable scenario? I mean there are two alternatives - Kosovo independent.... and another Kosovo is an autonomy within Serbia.... I don't see both scenarios realistacally possible.... what then!?!?!?

07-03-2007, 14:17 PM	#7 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 16,553 Country:	The current one - NATO/EU being blackmailed into staying a long, long, long time.

07-03-2007, 18:41 PM	#9 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 16,553 Country:	Meaning that we will leave that much sooner ... and leave the 2nd Kosovo War to be fought by themselves.

07-04-2007, 01:59 AM	#10 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 27,117 Country:	And Turbulent will flow the Kosovo River with gory red!

07-10-2007, 03:51 AM	#14 (permalink)
Garry *Defense Professional* Join Date: 06-18-04 Posts: 1,619	It is not easy to support Kosovo albanians independence and then deny same right to Basks, Kurds, Hungarians of Czech, Serbians of Bosnia, Corsicans.... Russians in northern Kazakhstan.... or in Eastern Ukraine.... British in Gibraltar.... etc. I would rather NOT open this Pandora box..... I would prefer all of those to be within the states they are now. The western powers are provocating albanians by ACCEPTING their independence from the begining. NOBODY would go to negotiate anything less than independence in such case..... and albanians do not!!! They are NOT FORCED to look for other solutions.... they KNOW that their independence is already APPROVED.... why to negotiate seriously?!?!? I think this cowboy policy will backfire

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