zraver

OoE I dissagree the Rusisan mobile launchers SS-25 Sickle which will equipp 3 divsions by 2015 is an absolute second strike capability. The ABM does not hav ethe capability to target MIRV's that cross range manuverability and a decoy screen. Russia has not had counter force cability for decades. They lost any real hope of it in the 50's with Looking Glass and later via the Ohio SSBN's.

America has enjoyed an absolute first strike capability for decades as well. first via low level insertion of bombers and later via submaroine and stealth. WW3 hasn't broken out becuase of it. America's counter force is limited to rouge states, even China has enough capability to swamp the ABM system and fry alot of babies in critcal economic centers to ward off a first strike.

MrFirst, the scale of economics does not permit 1000's of intercpetor missiles. If the US wanted a system capable of stopping a masse dnuclear attack it would be building ground based lasers along strategic points and pouring R&D dollars into ever bette rlasers that can target hop rapidly. We are not doing that, and until our reasearch ehad sin that dorection there is no reason to worry.

MrFirst

I believe Russians worry about lasers much less than about strategic ABMS.

Officer of Engineers

Hmmm, yeah, when was the last time WE got things on schedule? I, however, was commenting on the current setup.

There are several points here. The American nuclear triad is always something on 75% alert (maybe less these days). The Soviets (and Chinese) rely on political warning to bring the Strategic Rocket Forces up to readiness. Thus, the probability of a Soviet 1st strike was slim and non-existing for the Chinese.

The reverse, however, is damning for the Russians.

Currently? With only 20-25 non-MIRV ICBMs?

__________________
Chimo

zraver

OoE I wa a bit off on my numbers the Rusisans have 300 SS-25 currently which will be phase dout by 2015 and replaced with the SS-27. Russia's mobile forces have neve rlacked for funding. Even when the res tof the country went to hell they kept the mobile forces well supplied. Russia is now enjoying boom times economically and has no shortage of funding.


I am one of those who thinks China has a greater missile capability than they claim. 20 is jsut too low for the amount of fissile material they have available and thier strategic needs vs bot the US and USSR/Russia. China also has Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea at nuclear gun point as deterence.

wabpilot

No, they are not. According to our State Department some 100 of 250 nuclear demolition devices are unaccounted for. To be fair, the Russians claim that they are accounted for, but George Tennant, former Director of Central Intelligence has testified publically that the CIA remains unconvinced of Russian claims to be able to account for the missing nuclear demolition devices.

In addition, there have been two reports that Russian tactical nuclear weapons were either sold to Iran by Kzakhstan or stolen by Iran from Kzak stores. Neither of those reports have been fully substantiated by the State Department, but the CIA remains concerned.

Additionally, Russia lacks the controls that the United States considers necessary to handle nuclear weapons, according to General Eugen Habinger, former C-IN-C of US Strategic Command. The Nunn-Lugar Commission has also expressed similar doubts in testimony to Congress.

Officer of Engineers

Colonel,

Aren't those testimonies over a decade old and beyond the shelf life of those devices?

In the area of nuclear proliferation, the Chinese and because of them, the Pakistanis did far, far more damage. The Iranians got hold of a working Chinese nuke blueprint.

Officer of Engineers

Well, not quite. The SRF has been disbanded and the AF has absorbed the missile units. Still, the mobile units, including the SSBNs, were never meant to be counter-force but as city busters.

Welcome to the wonderful world of the PLA 2nd Artillery Force watching. I've seen estimates as high as 60 ICBMs and 1000 warheads.

What we do know.

1) We have only identified 4 ICBM brigades.
2) The National Command Release Authority is civilian, the Central Military Commission, not military
3) The nukes are not mated to their delivery vehicles
4) The 2AF has been so frustrated with the CMC that they've now devised conventional, not nuclear tactics.

It's not the Chinese could not do this, it's that we have not seen evidence that they've done so. I would be curious if you have evidence to the contrary.

Alex_Ivanov

Then they should work harder with buffer states, after all, gas/oil deficit in both cases was completely fault of Ukraine and Belarus, as was explained.

I have two strong feelings:
1. Before that there will be pipeline to China, so Russia will diversify buyers before Europe diversifies sellers, and will be able to choose more reliable consumer without crazy buffer states on the pipeline.
2. During my lifetime Russia will stop selling oil and gas abroad. It will be for domestic use only and resources will be saved for future generations.

wabpilot

Just remember, the customer is always right.
There's a fast way to assure that you don't make any money.

MrFirst

The customer is always right?
Why the customer Chavez is not right? He wanted to buy spare parts for his F-16s but the seller haven't sold.

highsea

Alex- If I am contracted to deliver my product to my customer, I am obligated to deliver. If the trucking company refuses to deliver, I have to find another way to fulfill my contract. My customer isn't interested in my problems. He has his own.

Europe isn't interested in Russia's problems with her former subject states. The contracts are not with Belarus or Ukraine, they are with Russia. It is up to Russia to meet her obligations, not the EU states to resolve her disputes.

Regardless of your position on Putin's pipeline diplomacy, it still leaves Europe not trusting Russia as a supplier, since no one knows when or with whom Putin will next choose to flex his muscles.

__________________
My baby called me up. She said- Why don't you ever take me out? Pick me up in your brand new car....You shake the short change from the old fruit jar...

Ray

Highseas,

You are right about the business ethics aspect.

However, in international issues, countries love to default to put the pressure.

Just so that one understands, the Pakistanis were howling about the US non delivery of the F 16s. I believe they had even given an advance payment (I could be wrong).

I am sure some clause must have been written down wherein the supplier nations are covered. But then not having seen either the US or the Russian agreements, I could be wrong.

Upfront, it appears defaulting is the name of the game and the nations who are the beneficiary are the ones who are left holding the can!

Russia also defaulted and failed to give the Cryogenic engines to India!

And we howled 'Unfair'!

When it a suppliers market, the 'customer' nation can only hold its head and shake in wonderment!

There is no doubt Europe requires gas and oil.

If not Russia, then who?

Economics plays a role!

__________________


"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

HAKUNA MATATA

highsea

This is true. Sometimes the reasons are better than other times.

They did make advance payments, and we held the funds for several years before returning it.

That was a mistake on our part, since it went a long way towards pushing Pakistan to North Korea. Law of Unintended Consequences at work.
I would think if that was the case, Russia would have mentioned it in her defense.
Short term, maybe. I'm not so sure if it pays in the long run. In this case, Putin further alienates the EU, and I really don't think that is good for Russia.
But you ended up getting it anyway, just through a more convoluted path.
The Eu has to work this out for themselves. As you say, it's a seller's market today. The EU recognizes this, and the new Energy Plan is an attempt to address the problem.
Indeed it does. What do you suppose Putin's response would be if Turkmenistan raises gas prices to Russia?

kams

No Highsea, we did not get it. Instead of complete ToT, we got 6 (6-8 not sure of exact no.) engines (and some drawings).

highsea

Kams, you did get it. The next GSLV launch will use the Indian-built stage.