Pakistan vs. Taliban thread

[Ironduke]

Pakistan 'fighting for survival'

Pakistan's military is fighting "for the survival of the country" against Taleban militants in the Swat valley, its prime minister says.

Yusuf Raza Gilani was speaking as the army tried to retake Swat's main town, Mingora, where a curfew is in force.

The government signed a peace agreement with the Swat Taleban in February, allowing Sharia law there, which was heavily criticised by Washington.

The militants then moved towards the capital, Islamabad.The army said it had killed 55 more militants on Saturday, having said that more than 140 militants had died in earlier clashes.

The fighting has already displaced some 200,000 people, while a further 300,000 are estimated to be on the move or about to flee, the UN says.

Sitara Imran, minister for social welfare in North West Frontier Province, called the exodus "one of the huge displacements, internal displacements in the world".

'Feeling helpless'

"This is not a normal war," Prime Minister Gilani told reporters on Saturday, Reuters news agency reports, "this is a guerrilla war."

"This is our own war. This is war for the survival of the country," he said.

The BBC's Mark Dummett in Islamabad says that for the first time since the military launched the offensive against the Taleban in the Swat valley, the fighting has spread into the centre of Mingora.

An indefinite curfew is preventing people from fleeing the area.

"We are feeling so helpless, we want to go but can't," Mingora resident Sallahudin Khan told Reuters news agency.

"We tried to leave yesterday after authorities relaxed the curfew for a few hours, but we couldn't as the main road leading out of Mingora was literally jammed with the flood of fleeing people."

The army has also accused the Taleban of holding the civilian population hostage and blocking their exit.

Mobile phone networks, water and electricity have all been cut in the town which is normally home to half a million people. There are fears that food and medicine will run out if the fighting does not end soon.

Our correspondent says the government is hoping for a quick victory, while it still has the support of the Pakistani people.

The US says the militants in northern Pakistan pose a direct threat to its security, and has demanded they be confronted.

Pakistani military spokesman Gen Athar Abbas said the military's objective was to eliminate the militants from the Swat valley and also the neighbouring districts of Dir and Buner.

Up to 15,000 troops have been deployed to take on 4-5,000 militants.

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan 'fighting for survival'

[JAD_333]

President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari appeared side by side on the Charlie Rose show last night. It was 80% pap and 20% substance, but is worth watching.

The interview with Sarah Cheyes that followed it was more informative. She's the former PBS reporter who stayed on in Kandahar after the Taliban were driven out. She runs a cooperative there and is special advisor to the US commander. She's highly intelligent and well informed; she tells it like it is. Rose just let her speak.

Charlie Rose - Home

[Parihaka]

The impression I'm getting is that it's just same old same old. Air strikes and artillery with no attempt to differentiate between civilian and Talibunnies. Personally I think this was their last best chance. I now doubt rump Pakistan will survive for more than a year.

[JAD_333]

Originally Posted by Parihaka

The impression I'm getting is that it's just same old same old.

I have the opposite impression after the past week's events.

[Parihaka]

Originally Posted by JAD_333

I have the opposite impression after the past week's events.

I don't see any change of operation by the PA. They've gone in and pounded civilian centres before, claimed along with the govt. a great victory, and retired to the south to drink whisky, smoke cigars and throw poo at the Indians.
Meanwhile the civilian population is displaced, radicalised and more sympathetic to the Talibunnies.
The only difference I can discern is the fighter jets now spend a lot less time in the air before they reach their targets, and the Artillery can basically fire from their bases.

[Parihaka]

Is this a COIN operation by Pakistan army?

A recipe for disaster.

The Pakistan armed forces have launched a ferocious assault on the jehadi positions in Swat and surrounding areas. Reports suggest that heavy artillery, fighter air crafts and helicopter gunships have been used against the jehadi positions. Any one familiar with this kind of weaponry would be aware of the kind of collateral damage caused by such attacks.

Many in the US administration are hailing this as a proof of the will and resolve of the Pakistan army to take on the jehadis. They are blatantly wrong. The option being exercised by Pakistan army is the easier option: of strafing the complete area, a la Vietnam. The right option — and obviously the more difficult one — for the Pakistan army would be to put boots on ground and do real counterinsurgency. Let the soldiers target the jehadis while limiting the collateral damage caused to innocent civilians and winning their hearts and minds. That’d be nearly impossible for any Pakistani general to achieve. How does he justify his action by his troops against their religious brethren and countrymen, extremists who are ostensibly fighting for what the current-day Pakistan stands for — Islam?

One of the foremost thinkers on modern counterinsurgency, General Dave Petraeus, heads the US Central Command. Pakistan happens to be a part of his jurisdiction. He has simplified the COIN doctrine in to three actionable stages: Clear, Hold and Build. Pakistan army seems to be in the first stage of COIN operations in Swat. What it forgets is that Clear stage involves clearing the designated area of insurgents, not clearing it of all forms of life. If it continues this way, there will be nothing left for the Pakistan army to hold and build, except some barren piece of charred land. Would Petraeus approve of such mindless destruction of own villages and towns as part of a COIN operation?

Pakistan army has earlier tried the same tactics to quell the Baluch uprising. However unlike the Baluch uprising, which is propelled by an ethno-regional aspiration, the insurgency in Swat is for a religious cause. The sway of the Islamist cause is not restricted to FATA or NWFP. It has a pan-Pakistan appeal, in fact even an international appeal among the Muslims. For a declared Islamic country — where the society has also been increasingly radicalised — this is more of an ideological battle than a military fight. The Pakistan army may have partially succeeded in Baluchistan, but the different motives and ideological causes in Swat will breed even more jehadis all over Pakistan and attract a few of other nationalities as well.

It is interesting to note that even now the Pakistan army is moving in only against the Pakistani Taliban. Pakistan army and the ISI still continue to maintain their relations with the Afghan Taliban. It is a throwback to the Musharraf era where Pakistan used to kill or hand over an Al Qaeda Number Two or Number Three every time the military dictator was under pressure from the US. The beginning of Musharraf’s fall started with the military action in the Red Mosque at Islamabad, which turned the jehadis against the Pakistani security establishment. Will the Swat offensive — like the Red Mosque incident — mark another turning point in the attitude of the jehadis against the Pakistan army? Will this antipathetic action against the Pakistani security establishment involve the jehadis of all ilk — the Pak Taliban, the Afghan Taliban and numerous other groups like the JuD in Punjab?

Pakistan army’s track record in all its wars against India has proved that it is incapable of successfully waging a conventional war. The recent action in Swat confirms that it is incapable of even conceptluasing and planning, forget about winning, a counterinsurgency conflict.

[Parihaka]

Pakistan army fights, but can it win?

ISLAMABAD – Pakistan's army has a rare window of support for its latest campaign against Taliban militants near the Afghan border, and U.S. hopes are pinned on the military for bringing stability to both countries.

But so far, refugees say, the military is relying on helicopter gunships, aerial bombings and artillery while avoiding close combat — tactics it has used before with little success.

While it is still early in the battle for the Swat Valley, some fear the campaign will follow the pattern of previous offensives in the frontier zone, which have been more limited and ended inconclusively after heavy collateral damage in towns and villages and massive displacement of the population.

"If the government, the army wants to control and crush the Taliban, why don't they send ground troops to flush them out?" said Yar Mohammad, a 50-year-old stone mason who fled the valley and was in a refugee camp Thursday. "Why are they only shelling, which hurts the public most of all and creates anti-government feeling?"

Washington, anxious to stop the spread of the insurgency in Pakistan and Afghanistan, has given the army billions of dollars in aid and embedded about 30 U.S. military trainers with forces in the northwest.

While analysts say the money is sharpening the army's counterinsurgency capabilities, they caution the force must abandon its obsession with archrival India to be effective.

For more than 50 years, Pakistani soldiers have been preparing for conventional land battles on the plains of the Punjab against Hindu India rather than going door-to-door against fellow Pakistani Muslims on the mountainous border. It currently has more than 100,000 of its 500,000 troops stationed on the Afghan frontier. Most of the rest are on the Indian frontier, experts say.

"They are trying to shift the priorities, but still the mindset is always toward India," said retired general and military analyst Talat Masood.

"They can't ignore the past legacy and current tensions," he said, referring to the aftermath of last year's Mumbai terror attacks where both nations moved troops to the border.

Fighting in the Swat Valley and surrounding districts began last week after a three-month-old peace deal collapsed.

According to military figures, scores of militants have been killed. There has been no official word on civilian casualties, but at least 45,000 people — and probably many more — have fled, creating a humanitarian emergency.

The Swat Taliban are estimated to have up to 7,000 fighters — many with training and battle experience — equipped with rocket-propelled grenades, explosives and automatic weapons. They are up against some 15,000 troops who, until recent days, had been confined to their barracks under the peace deal.

The battle represents the most sustained operation in the border region since a six-month campaign in Bajur and Mohmand districts ended with a declaration of victory in March. While it did drive out or kill many militants, the army razed towns and some 500,000 people were forced from their homes. They have yet to return.

Since then there have been several militant attacks in the districts. Last month, the commander of the Taliban contingent in the area made a defiant radio broadcast over an illegal FM radio station vowing to implement hardline Islamic law.

"If you look at what went on in Bajur it seems to me the army was tired of taking casualties and used artillery to flatten places," said Shaun Gregory, from the Pakistan Security Research Unit at the University of Bradford in Britain. "That is not much of a strategy either for winning hearts or minds or defeating militancy."

Military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas dismissed criticism of that operation and the one in Swat, saying the strikes were targeting areas where militants were confirmed to be. He noted operation was still ongoing and that tactics were evolving.

Gen. Ashfaz Parvez Kayani, the chief of Pakistan's army, last week promised tough action, saying he was "aware of the doubts being voiced about the intent as well as the capability of the army to defeat the militancy in the country." On Thursday, he vowed to commit enough resources to the Swat campaign to beat the insurgency.

In Washington, a senior U.S. defense official said it was too early to gauge the success or scope of the Swat operation, but noted that most of the offensives in the tribal regions since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks were not sustained.

"They are kind of like raid-style or punishment-type operations, not true, full-scale offensives," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media. "The fighting they did in Bajur was helpful, but it was only in one area as opposed to a full-scale sweep."

Several of the offensives, including the one in Swat, ended with hasty peace deals amid public and political criticism of the heavy handed military approach. A commonly held feeling in the Muslim nation that the United States — not the Taliban — is the country's main enemy added to doubts about the need to fight the militants.

This time around, however, analysts say, the country is more united behind the military approach. The Taliban have been blamed for scuttling the deal by moving out of Swat into neighboring Buner district even after the government imposed Islamic law.

It is now hard for politicians previously skeptical of the need to battle the Taliban to maintain that position.

Still, most of those escaping the battle zone in recent days have complained more about military operations than the Taliban actions. High civilian casualties and the sight of up to one million refugees in the northwest with no hope of returning home could very quickly erode support for the military.

[n21]

Originally Posted by JAD_333

I have the opposite impression after the past week's events.

They are draining the pool to catch a fish!

All the reports about Pakistan and PA talks about "how they are trained for tank battles in plains against the Indian Army and not for COIN .." etc etc

I never heard these comments where PA was carrying out "COIN" against Baloch Insurgents. So it is not that PA is fresh grass in the field of COIN.

PA is carrying out random bombardment because that it is most "visible" form of action,which inturn ensures that American aid keeps flowing AND prevents large scale PA causalities.

As far as PA's desire to fight with Taliban is consider,PA's 11th Corps(an entire Corps!) is based in Peshwar...few kilometers from a Taliban training camps!

[JAD_333]

Originally Posted by Parihaka

I don't see any change of operation by the PA. They've gone in and pounded civilian centres before, claimed along with the govt. a great victory, and retired to the south to drink whisky, smoke cigars and throw poo at the Indians.
Meanwhile the civilian population is displaced, radicalised and more sympathetic to the Talibunnies.
The only difference I can discern is the fighter jets now spend a lot less time in the air before they reach their targets, and the Artillery can basically fire from their bases.

No dispute on the heavy handedness. But as for a change in the level of determination, we shall see.

[JAD_333]

Originally Posted by n21

...PA is carrying out random bombardment because that it is most "visible" form of action,which inturn ensures that American aid keeps flowing AND prevents large scale PA causalities.

True, a good show keeps the stockholders happy.

As far as PA's desire to fight with Taliban is consider,PA's 11th Corps(an entire Corps!) is based in Peshwar...few kilometers from a Taliban training camps!

Not very encouraging to say the least. Have you been there?

[axeman]

Originally Posted by JAD_333

No dispute on the heavy handedness. But as for a change in the level of determination, we shall see.

As long as your dollars pour in. Change we believe in.

Originally Posted by JAD_333

True, a good show keeps the stockholders happy.

This is not a game. Real people with their very real lives are taking a beating here.

[JAD_333]

Originally Posted by axeman

This is not a game. Real people with their very real lives are taking a beating here.

Quite right; I was not making light of the people's suffering: just agreeing with another poster that PA is prone to over-the-top military actions to impress $$ sources that they are doing something.

Anyone who saw the video of the Taliban beheading men they suspected of being spies cannot take what is going on lightly. And from what one reads, the PA has caused innocent people to suffer from indisriminate bombings. Nasty all around.

[BudW]

Imagine if the Pakistan military tangled with India's considering the performance against the Taliban.

[JAD_333]

Originally Posted by BudW

Imagine if the Pakistan military tangled with India's considering the performance against the Taliban.

Bud, you're talking apples and oranges. The PA is up against an insurgency that has no tanks, artillery and is imbedded among the local population. There is no front and no fortifications.

A war with India would likely have a front and the opposing armies would employ conventional weapons and war fighting tactics. That is not to say the PA would do any better than it is now, but simply to say that the nature of fighting insurgents is worlds apart from a fighting a conventional war.

[Parihaka]

Shaky Pakistan Is Seen as a Target of Plots by Al Qaeda

K. M. Chaudary/Associated Press
Published: May 10, 2009

WASHINGTON — As Taliban militants push deeper into Pakistan’s settled areas, foreign operatives of Al Qaeda who had focused on plotting attacks against the West are seizing on the turmoil to sow chaos in Pakistan and strengthen the hand of the militant Islamist groups there, according to American and Pakistani intelligence officials.

One indication came April 19, when a truck parked inside a Qaeda compound in South Waziristan, in Pakistan’s tribal areas, erupted in a fireball when it was struck by a C.I.A. missile. American intelligence officials say that the truck had been loaded with high explosives, apparently to be used as a bomb, and that while its ultimate target remains unclear, the bomb would have been more devastating than the suicide bombing that killed more than 50 people at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad in September.

Al Qaeda’s leaders — a predominantly Arab group of Egyptians, Saudis and Yemenis, as well as other nationalities like Uzbeks — for years have nurtured ties to Pakistani militant groups like the Taliban operating in the mountains of Pakistan. The foreign operatives have historically set their sights on targets loftier than those selected by the local militant groups, aiming for spectacular attacks against the West, but they may see new opportunity in the recent violence.

Intelligence officials say the Taliban advances in Swat and Buner, which are closer to Islamabad than to the tribal areas, have already helped Al Qaeda in its recruiting efforts. The officials say the group’s recruiting campaign is currently aimed at young fighters across the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia who are less inclined to plan and carry out far-reaching global attacks and who have focused their energies on more immediate targets.

“They smell blood, and they are intoxicated by the idea of a jihadist takeover in Pakistan,” said Bruce O. Riedel, a former analyst for the C.I.A. who recently led the Obama administration’s policy review of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

It remains unlikely that Islamic militants could seize power in Pakistan, given the strength of Pakistan’s military, according to American intelligence analysts. But a senior American intelligence official expressed concern that recent successes by the Taliban in extending territorial gains could foreshadow the creation of “mini-Afghanistans” around Pakistan that would allow militants even more freedom to plot attacks.

American government officials and terrorism experts said that Al Qaeda’s increasing focus on a local strategy was partly born from necessity, as the C.I.A.’s intensifying airstrikes have reduced the group’s ability to hit targets in the West. The United States has conducted 16 drone strikes so far this year, according to American officials, compared with 36 strikes in all of 2008.

According to a Pakistani intelligence assessment provided to The New York Times in February, Al Qaeda has adapted to the deaths of its leaders by shifting “to conduct decentralized operations under small but well-organized regional groups” within Pakistan and Afghanistan. At the same time, the group has intensified its recruiting, to replace its airstrike casualties.

One of Al Qaeda’s main goals in Pakistan, the assessment said, was to “stage major terrorist attacks to create a feeling of insecurity, embarrass the government and retard economic development and political progress.”

The Qaeda operatives are foreigners inside Pakistan, and experts say that the group’s leaders, like Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, appear to be wary of claiming credit for the violence in the country, possibly creating popular backlash against the group.

“They are trying to take an Arab face off this,” said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University.

“If you look at Al Qaeda as a brand, they know when to broadcast the brand, as the group has done in North Africa,” Mr. Hoffman said. “And they know when to cloak the brand, as it has done in Pakistan.”

As a result, it is difficult for American officials to assess exactly which recent attacks in Pakistan are the work of Qaeda operatives. But intelligence officials say they believe that the Marriott Hotel bombing was partly planned by Usama al-Kini, a Kenyan Qaeda operative who was killed by a C.I.A. drone on New Year’s Day.

According to Mr. Hoffman, Al Qaeda might be trying to achieve a separate goal: getting the C.I.A. to call off its campaign of airstrikes in the tribal areas. A wave of terrorist violence could foment so much popular discontent with the government of President Asif Ali Zardari, he said, that Pakistan might then try to pressure the Obama administration to scale back its drone campaign.

For now, however, Obama administration officials say they believe that the covert airstrikes are the best tool at their disposal to strike at Al Qaeda inside Pakistan, which remains the group’s most important haven, but where large numbers of American combat forces would never be welcome.

The April 19 strike that hit what appeared to have been a truck bomb in a compound used by Al Qaeda set off an enormous secondary explosion, intelligence officials say. A second, empty truck destroyed in the same attack may also have been there to be outfitted with explosives, they say.

In another significant attack, on April 29, missiles fired from a C.I.A. Predator killed Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi, an Algerian Qaeda planner who American intelligence officials say they believe helped train operatives for attacks in Europe and the United States.

Still, officials caution that Al Qaeda has not abandoned its goal of “spectacular” attacks in the United States and Europe. According to one American counterterrorism official, the group continues to plan attacks outside its sanctuary in the tribal areas, aiming at targets in the West and elsewhere in Pakistan.

“They are opportunistic to the extent they perceive vulnerabilities with the uncertain nature of Pakistani politics and the security situation in Swat and Buner,” said the American counterterrorism official, who like other officials interviewed for this article was not authorized to speak publicly on intelligence issues. “They’re trying to exploit it.”

In meetings this past week in Washington, American and Pakistani officials discussed the possibility of limited joint operations with American Predator and Reaper drones.

Under one proposal, the United States would retain control over the firing of missiles, but it would share with the Pakistani security forces some sophisticated imagery and communications intercepts that could be relayed to Pakistani combat forces on the ground.

C.I.A. officials for months have resisted requests by Mr. Zardari to share the drone technology. In a television interview broadcast Sunday, the Pakistani leader said he would keep pressing to get his own Predator fleet.

“I’ve been asking for them, but I haven’t got a positive answer as yet,” Mr. Zardari said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“But I’m not giving up.”