An Iraq civil war will be felt far beyond its borders

Ray · 10-27-2005, 12:07 PM

Quote:

An Iraq civil war will be felt far beyond its borders

Thursday, October 27, 2005

An Iraq civil war will be felt far beyond its borders

By Charles J Hanley

‘If it’s a war between Sunni and Shia, this war might be extended from Lebanon to Afghanistan’

ANY all-out civil war in Iraq could shake the political foundations of places beyond that stricken land, sending streams of refugees across Iraqi borders, tempting neighbours to intervene and renewing the half-buried old conflict of Sunni and Shia in the Muslim world, Middle East analysts say.

“If it’s a war between Sunni and Shia, this war might be extended from Lebanon to Afghanistan,” says Diaa Rashwan, an Egyptian expert on Islamic militancy.

In a series of Associated Press interviews, other regional specialists did not foresee such falling dominoes - open war between Islam’s two branches spreading elsewhere from Iraq. But they believe regional tensions have already sharpened because of the rise of Iraqi Shias to power under US military occupation.

This “really changes the power structure in the Middle East, not only in Iraq, but in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia,” said longtime US Mideast scholar William R Polk, referring to two other Arab lands with fragile religious divides.

Iraq’s new constitution, approved in an Oct 15 referendum whose results were certified Tuesday, is largely opposed by the Sunni Muslim minority, since it could lead to a virtual breakup of the country into oil-rich Shia and Kurdish regions in the south and north, and a resource-poor Sunni center.

A permanent government will be elected Dec 15, inevitably controlled by the Shia majority. Many fear this will lead to clashes between Sunni and Shia armed groups, transforming the Sunnis’ long-running anti-US insurgency into a civil war. A key neighbour has voiced urgent concern.

“All the dynamics are pulling the country apart,” Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said of Iraq. Speaking with Washington reporters on Sept. 22, the Saudi also warned that Iraq’s disintegration would “bring other countries in the region into the conflict.”

Turkey and Iran top that list. The Turks might be tempted to intervene in Iraq’s north to keep its autonomous Kurds from supporting Turkey’s own Kurdish separatists. Shia Iran might act - with arms, intelligence, even “volunteers” - to ensure victory by a friendly Iraqi Shia leadership in any civil war, analysts say. “The Turks would be the most worried and have the most capacity” - a strong military - “to do something about it,” Polk said.

Persian Iran, sharing a long border and a history of warfare with Arab Iraq, has multiple interests in its neighbor’s future, noted W. Andrew Terrill, Mideast specialist at the US Army War College. The Iranians clearly do not want a return to a hostile Sunni-led Iraq like that of ousted President Saddam Hussein. But Terrill said Tehran also must worry about a Shia-run government that is too reliant on Washington “that is willing to accept permanent US military bases that may be used to threaten and intimidate the Iranian regime.”

Two mostly Sunni neighbours, Syria and Jordan, are largely unable and unlikely to try to influence a civil war next door, analysts say. But both would bear a heavy burden if Iraqi Sunnis were driven to seek refuge across the border, fleeing Balkan-style “ethnic cleansing” - a prospect haunting regional officials.

“What’s happening in Iraq is already affecting the region. There are a half-million Iraqis in Jordan, a country of 5½ million people,” Hasan Abu Nimah, a former Jordanian UN ambassador, told the AP. An even greater influx “would put a strain on services and schools and create difficulties of all kinds.”

Egyptian analyst Mohamed el-Sayed Said worries about a broader struggle between Islam’s two branches - the Sunnis, long dominant in the Arab world, and the schismatic, often oppressed Shias, historically viewed as “subversives”.

“Not in recent memory have we had a civil war between Sunnis and Shias,” noted Said, deputy director of Cairo’s Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. “If we have one in Iraq, it would probably inflame divisions in other countries, particularly Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.”

In Lebanon, analysts say, the Shia party Hezbollah may draw on Iraq’s Shia ascendancy for political and material support in its contest for power with Lebanese Christian and Sunni factions. Said does not expect a new Lebanese civil war, but sees the “trust and amity” between Lebanese Shias and Sunnis seriously undermined if their coreligionists fall into full-scale war in Iraq.

To Iraq’s south, Saudi Arabia’s relatively small, downtrodden Shia minority is unlikely to take up arms against the Sunni fundamentalist monarchy, say Said and others. Instead, they fear that Sunni extremists, returning home to Saudi Arabia from a losing battle in Iraq, will seek revenge through terror attacks on Saudi Shias.

Rashwan, also of the Al-Ahram center, said similar sectarian violence could break out in Bahrain and other Gulf states with significant Shia populations. Militants would not need to flock to Iraq to wage their version of holy war, Rashwan said. “The Shia-Sunni divide exists in your own country. You can create your own battlefield.”
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...10-2005_pg4_13

The situation is moving towards confrontation.

An interesting issue that seems to have been missed out is that the other problem which is the provision allowing provinces to form regional alliances -- powers that would even be allowed to maintain their own security forces. In the best case, this arrangement would lead to a sort of Iraqi National Guard. In the worst case, these security troops will become ethno-religious paramilitary forces that lay the groundwork for civil war.

bonehead · 10-27-2005, 13:29 PM

Civil war in Iraq can not be a surprise. There is no way the sunnis will accept losing the power they once had. Sunnis and shia shaired animosity for centuries. The only thing the two branches of muslims hate even more is Isreal and the U.S.A. Their way of life is killing and murdering to spread their religion. The very few mid eastern muslims in leadership that want peace are usually the first victims.

lwarmonger · 10-27-2005, 14:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bonehead

Civil war in Iraq can not be a surprise. There is no way the sunnis will accept losing the power they once had.

Pride goeth before the fall. If they were smart, they'd realize their best shot is trying to work peacefully with the Shias. They are outnumbered 3-1, and lack a patron to supply them with weapons and direct military support. Iran will be more than happy to intervene, I'm sure.

Ray · 10-27-2005, 16:55 PM

lwarmonger,

The reality is what Bonehead has mentioned.

Take the devastating Earthquake in the Kashmir.

Instead of concentrating on providing relief, Pakistan (Sunnis) have shot up the Shias in Gilgit and in the bargain has caused an unnecessary law and order problem and a diversion from the relief work that was being done!

If there was brains involved, then one could understand. Hatred numbs their brains.

Unless you experience it, you won't understand it!

Bluesman · 10-27-2005, 18:46 PM

Riiiiight. If there hasn't been civil war by now, there won't be. The Sunnis are 20% of the population, and the Shia and Kurds have 'em MASSIVELY out-gunned. Furthermore, if the country stays together, the Sunnis get a cut of the oil, which they will NOT get if the Sunnis somehow succeed in seceding.

I do not believe that the Sunnis want to give up what power and wealth they now have for some squalid squat in the slums of Baghdad and a worthless stretch of western Iraq desert that noone wants. Not only that, it would probably be the end of most Sunnis mere existence in Iraq, because the Shia and the Kurds - which are mostly Sunni - have just about had enough of their crap, and if given the excuse and the power - which they have RIGHT NOW - goodbye, losers.

They will keep doing what they have done since the invasion: whining every step of the way down the road to democratization, and accepting the inevitable: loss of their exalted position as a ruling minority.

bonehead · 10-27-2005, 23:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluesman

Riiiiight. If there hasn't been civil war by now, there won't be. The Sunnis are 20% of the population, and the Shia and Kurds have 'em MASSIVELY out-gunned. Furthermore, if the country stays together, the Sunnis get a cut of the oil, which they will NOT get if the Sunnis somehow succeed in seceding.

I do not believe that the Sunnis want to give up what power and wealth they now have for some squalid squat in the slums of Baghdad and a worthless stretch of western Iraq desert that noone wants. Not only that, it would probably be the end of most Sunnis mere existence in Iraq, because the Shia and the Kurds - which are mostly Sunni - have just about had enough of their crap, and if given the excuse and the power - which they have RIGHT NOW - goodbye, losers.

They will keep doing what they have done since the invasion: whining every step of the way down the road to democratization, and accepting the inevitable: loss of their exalted position as a ruling minority.

The sunnis are a lot of things, but they are NOT retards. They will wait until we are gone before trying anything like open warfare. For now they are perfecly willing to drag their feet and whine while they let insurigents from other countries do the dirty work and the bleeding for them. All the while hoping and praying we leave befor their future is set in stone. The longer the U.S. stays, the harder it will be for the sunnis to get away with anything. Yes, the sunnis are outnumbered, but that is exactly how suicide bombers like it. Arms can pour across the border at a whim, Hell, so could half of Syria. Iran responds...and here we go again. The Kurds would jump ship in a heartbeat and support the sunnis if they thought they could get an independant statehood out of the deal. If the sunnis do give up; that would be a best case scenario and we have not seen that since the initial invasion.

Ray · 10-28-2005, 10:23 AM

One should not look at the Sunni issue in isolation and Iraq centric.

The Sunni Arab nations will be observing the whole tamasha (circus) with a keen eye.

They will not permit a Shia dominated country in their neighbourhood.

A Shia dominated country in the neighbourhood would mean the diminishing power of the Sunnis in Arabia.

In the Sunni Shia equation, it is just not acceptable.

Something like Northern Ireland of the olden days.

bonehead · 10-28-2005, 13:37 PM

Politics reign supreme in the western world so we all too often forget that politics takes a back seat to religion in other parts of the world.

10-27-2005, 18:46 PM	#5 (permalink)
Bluesman WAB Bartender *Defense Professional* *Military Professional* Join Date: 11-24-04 Location: Vacaville, CA. Posts: 7,387 Country:	Riiiiight. If there hasn't been civil war by now, there won't be. The Sunnis are 20% of the population, and the Shia and Kurds have 'em MASSIVELY out-gunned. Furthermore, if the country stays together, the Sunnis get a cut of the oil, which they will NOT get if the Sunnis somehow succeed in seceding. I do not believe that the Sunnis want to give up what power and wealth they now have for some squalid squat in the slums of Baghdad and a worthless stretch of western Iraq desert that noone wants. Not only that, it would probably be the end of most Sunnis mere existence in Iraq, because the Shia and the Kurds - which are mostly Sunni - have just about had enough of their crap, and if given the excuse and the power - which they have RIGHT NOW - goodbye, losers. They will keep doing what they have done since the invasion: whining every step of the way down the road to democratization, and accepting the inevitable: loss of their exalted position as a ruling minority. __________________ "The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory." - George Orwell

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10-27-2005, 13:29 PM	#2 (permalink)
bonehead *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 01-12-05 Posts: 1,913	Civil war in Iraq can not be a surprise. There is no way the sunnis will accept losing the power they once had. Sunnis and shia shaired animosity for centuries. The only thing the two branches of muslims hate even more is Isreal and the U.S.A. Their way of life is killing and murdering to spread their religion. The very few mid eastern muslims in leadership that want peace are usually the first victims.

10-27-2005, 16:55 PM	#4 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,144 Country:	lwarmonger, The reality is what Bonehead has mentioned. Take the devastating Earthquake in the Kashmir. Instead of concentrating on providing relief, Pakistan (Sunnis) have shot up the Shias in Gilgit and in the bargain has caused an unnecessary law and order problem and a diversion from the relief work that was being done! If there was brains involved, then one could understand. Hatred numbs their brains. Unless you experience it, you won't understand it!

10-28-2005, 10:23 AM	#7 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,144 Country:	One should not look at the Sunni issue in isolation and Iraq centric. The Sunni Arab nations will be observing the whole tamasha (circus) with a keen eye. They will not permit a Shia dominated country in their neighbourhood. A Shia dominated country in the neighbourhood would mean the diminishing power of the Sunnis in Arabia. In the Sunni Shia equation, it is just not acceptable. Something like Northern Ireland of the olden days.

10-28-2005, 13:37 PM	#8 (permalink)
bonehead *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 01-12-05 Posts: 1,913	Politics reign supreme in the western world so we all too often forget that politics takes a back seat to religion in other parts of the world.

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