troung

Decline in Iraqi Troops' Readiness Cited
Generals Tell Lawmakers They Cannot Predict When U.S. Forces Can Withdraw

By Josh White and Bradley Graham
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 30, 2005; Page A12

The number of Iraqi army battalions that can fight insurgents without U.S. and coalition help has dropped from three to one, top U.S. generals told Congress yesterday, adding that the security situation in Iraq is too uncertain to predict large-scale American troop withdrawals anytime soon.

Gen. George W. Casey Jr., who oversees U.S. forces in Iraq, said there are fewer Iraqi battalions at "Level 1" readiness than there were a few months ago. Although Casey said the number of troops and overall readiness of Iraqi security forces have steadily increased in recent months, and that there has not been a "step backwards," both Republican and Democratic senators expressed deep concern that the United States is not making enough progress against a resilient insurgency.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and his commanders yesterday publicly hedged their forecasts of U.S. involvement in Iraq, leaving it unclear when troops will be able to come home or how long it will take before Iraqi security forces can defend their homeland. The officials also gave somber forecasts of significant insurgent attacks in the coming weeks as Iraq faces important political milestones.

Yesterday in Iraq, three suicide attackers set off a series of car bombs in a northern, mainly Shiite town, killing at least 40 people and wounding many more. In western Iraq, a roadside bomb killed five U.S. soldiers. Sunni insurgents have said they want to disrupt the constitutional referendum next month and the elections set for December.

On Capitol Hill, Casey and Gen. John P. Abizaid, who leads the U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Iraqi forces are growing steadily but that it could be some time before they can take over large portions of the country. The readiness of Iraqi forces is a key element of the U.S. war strategy to gradually reduce American troops as Iraqi troops are able to effectively replace them.

"Over the past 18 months, we have built enough Iraqi capacity where we can begin talking seriously about transitioning this counterinsurgency mission to them," Casey said. Military figures show that there are about three dozen army and special police battalions rated at Level 2 or above, meaning they are taking the lead in combat as long as they have support from coalition forces.

Officials did not say specifically why two battalions are no longer rated at Level 1 and thus unable to operate on their own. They said generally readiness ratings can change for numerous reasons, such as if a commander resigns, or if more training is needed. Casey also said that the "Iraqi armed forces will not have an independent capability for some time."

In a House Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday afternoon, Rumsfeld and the commanders were pressed for specifics about when troops might withdraw. But the answers were vague, at least the ones provided in public, before members moved into a classified briefing.

"I can tell you, Congressman, it's all going to be conditions-based," Casey said in answering Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. (D-S.C.), who had sought a "reasonable time frame" for Iraqi troops to take over security duties. "It's not going to be like throwing a switch where all of a sudden, one day, the Iraqis are in charge."

Senators bristled at the disclosure that only one of Iraq's 86 army battalions is ready to fight on its own, including rare blunt criticism from Republicans. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said he believes the United States has not had enough troops to fend off insurgents permanently. McCain also chastised Air Force Gen. Richard B. Myers, who retires as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff today, for being overly optimistic because "things have not gone as we had planned or expected nor as we were told by you, General Myers."

Myers replied: "I don't think this committee or the American public has ever heard me say that things are going very well in Iraq. This is a hard struggle."

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she was discouraged by the lack of readiness by the Iraqi security force. She said that it "contributes to a loss of public confidence in how the war is going," and that "it doesn't feel like progress when we hear today that we have only one Iraqi battalion that is fully capable."

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said he doubts that U.S. commanders have a clear handle on the nature of the insurgency and noted that the war has been more difficult than he expected.

Defense officials and military commanders have frequently sounded upbeat since the January elections, at times predicting that significant numbers of U.S. troops might return home by next spring and declaring that the insurgency was waning. As attacks have intensified recently and as the war has become less popular in the United States, that optimism has slipped. Lawmakers have recently expressed concerns about the growing potential for civil war in Iraq.

Sen. Carl M. Levin (Mich.), ranking Democrat on the committee, said he believes that if Iraqis do not join together by the end of the year to reach a political solution that is agreeable to the minority Sunnis, the United States should consider a timetable for withdrawal. Levin said an indefinite U.S. presence could hinder Iraqi progress.

"That's not setting a date for departure at this time," he said. "That's simply conveying clearly and forcefully to the Iraqis that the presence of our forces in Iraq is not unlimited."

Asked whether the insurgency has worsened, Casey said it has not expanded geographically or numerically, "to the extent we can know that." But he noted that current "levels of violence are above norms," exceeding 500 attacks a week.

"I'll tell you that levels of violence are a lagging indicator of success," he added. "And what's really important is the fact that the Iraqis are at 98 percent registered to participate in the referendum, in the elections."

troung

Fewer highly trained Iraqi troops ready
Officials cautious about a pullout of U.S. forces in 2006

WASHINGTON

Top U.S. military commanders said Thursday that the number of highly trained Iraqi Army units capable of operating independently actually declined from three to one in the last few months and downplayed the likelihood of a withdrawal of U.S. troops next year.

Gen. George W. Casey testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee with other senior military leaders on the same day three car bombs exploded in the city of Balad, north of Baghdad, killing at least 60 people. Separately, the American military announced a roadside bomb had killed five Americans.

Casey, the top ground commander in Iraq, said earlier this year that he expected "some fairly substantial reductions" in U.S. forces in Iraq in 2006. His deputy, amplifying on those remarks, estimated that 20,000 U.S. troops could be withdrawn by next spring, with further cuts later in the year.

But Thursday, Casey and his colleagues were more cautious in their predictions. Instead of substantial withdrawals in the spring, Casey said only that there is a "possibility" that "reductions of coalition forces still exists in 2006."

There are now about 138,000 American troops in Iraq, a number that is expected to grow by 2,000 to beef up security before the end of the year.

Iraq will vote on a new constitution in about two weeks and is scheduled to hold nationwide elections in December.

"The next 75 days are going to be critical in what happens after that," Casey told the senators. He gave no hint of the number of troops that could be withdrawn in 2006.

Last month, President Bush dismissed talk of an American troop drawdown as "rumor" and "speculation," despite the public comments of Army officers, and cautioned that such a discussion would embolden the insurgents and impede the creation of an Iraqi government.

Both Republican and Democratic senators told the general Thursday they were concerned by the slow pace of U.S. training for Iraqi security forces and the continued inability of Iraqi ethnic groups to forge a political partnership.

Casey said there are more than 6,000 police officers, double the number from last year, and that there are 100 Iraqi Army and special police battalions operating with U.S. forces. A battalion has about 600 soldiers.

Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona wanted to know how many of the Iraqi Army battalions were fully trained and equipped at the top level, meaning they have the ability to operate independent of U.S. forces. McCain said the Pentagon reported in June that three Iraqi Army battalions were at this level.

"The number now is, if you're talking about level-1 trained, it's one," said Gen. John Abizaid, the top American officer in the region, who appeared before the committee with Casey and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.

"Now we've gone from three to one?" asked McCain.

"It doesn't feel like progress when we hear today that we have only one Iraqi battalion that is fully capable," said Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine.

Casey replied that "things change in battalions," such as equipment problems, personnel changes or other issues. But he provided no specific details about the two battalions whose status was downgraded.

He insisted that, overall, the Iraqi security forces have increased "quantitatively and qualitatively over the past year."

Iraq still lacks the infrastructure necessary to support a military and it's "going to be a while" before the country can achieve that goal, said Casey, who offered no specific timeline.

But the general said American troops have trained more than 30 Iraqi Army battalions that are at the next level of readiness, meaning they can lead combat operations with some U.S. assistance. Another 55 Iraqi Army battalions are still receiving training.

"I don't see the indicators yet that we are ready to plan or begin troop withdrawals given the overall security situation," McCain said. "And that just isn't my opinion alone."

Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts said he was troubled by reports that insurgents are infiltrating Iraq's security forces, citing one estimate that 5 percent of Iraqi government troops are secretly insurgents.

Are the insurgents benefiting from our military training and then using inside knowledge to ambush and kill our soldiers, and even using our weapons to do it?" asked Kennedy.

Casey said infiltration is "more problematic" with the Iraqi police, who are recruited locally, while soldiers are recruited nationally. He acknowledged that the system of screening recruits "is not a failsafe process, for sure."

That exchange prompted Rumsfeld to interject: "It's a problem that's faced by police forces in every major city in our country, that criminals infiltrate and sign up to join the police force."

Sen. Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, later challenged Rumsfeld, asking if he was implying that every U.S. police department is infiltrated by criminals.

Rumsfeld responded that he was not making any "blanket statement" but "from time to time that there are scandals in police departments in major cities in the United States where individuals did end up in police departments."

The senators also focused on Iraq's elections and the likelihood that the minority Sunnis, who make up the bulk of the insurgency, would vote against the proposed constitution on Oct. 15.

Casey said he doubted the Sunnis would be able to muster the necessary two-thirds vote in three provinces that would lead to a countrywide rejection of the constitution.

But in response to a question from Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, the top Democrat on the committee, Casey said it was "entirely possible" that the political situation in Iraq could worsen if a large number of Sunnis vote against the constitution.

The Iraqis must settle their po litical differences and come together, Levin said, even if the constitution is adopted. Levin also suggested that if the Iraqis are unable to resolve their political differences by the end of the year, the United States should consider adopting a timetable for troop withdrawal.

Casey quickly added that a Sunni vote against the constitution could also have a "positive effect," because it could "drive the Sunnis to participate even greater in the elections in December to get into the assembly."

Sen. James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican, dismissed talk of U.S. troop reductions, asking what the result would be "if we should surrender, if we should cut and run at this time."

"It would be a disaster for the region," Abizaid said. "It would be a disaster for the United States. People are standing up for their rights, people are coming forward and debating their future in a way that I've just never seen before."

Gen. Richard B. Myers, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said: "If we were to lose in Iraq -- whatever that means: pulling out or whatever -- that is a battle in this longer war, this war on terrorism. And my view is that as soon as we pull out, that would embolden this al-Qaida organization, their violent extremist techniques and that surely the next 9/11 would be right around the corner."

Abizaid told senators earlier in the hearing that al-Qaida, with its worldwide reach and attacks from London to Asia, was the greatest threat to the United States. Reed, the Rhode Island Democrat, asked how the U.S. commitment in Iraq would serve to counter the greater danger posed by al-Qaida.

"We've got to stabilize Iraq to fight the broader al-Qaida threat," said Abizaid. "Al-Qaida is not the main enemy in Iraq. It is the most dangerous enemy in Iraq and it feeds on the instability of Iraq."

tom.bowman@baltsun.com

troung

Fight all but gone out of Iraqi Army
October 1, 2005

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The number of the Iraqi Army's 86 battalions that can fight insurgents without coalition help has dropped from three to one, American generals have told Congress, while the security situation in Iraq is too uncertain for them to predict large-scale US troop withdrawals soon.

General George Casey, the US commander in Iraq, said on Thursday there were fewer Iraqi battalions at level one readiness than a few months ago. Although he said the number of troops and overall readiness of Iraqi security forces had steadily increased in recent months, and that there had not been a "step backwards", Republican and Democratic senators expressed deep concern that the US was not making enough progress against a resilient insurgency.

The director of national intelligence, John Negroponte, said the agencies under his command were still struggling to understand the nature of Iraq's insurgency. Not enough had been done about the insurgents, who by some estimates had killed more than 5000 Iraqi civilians and security forces, Mr Negroponte said.

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Advertisement"It's a very, very difficult issue," he said. "There's no analytical issue that is more important, no intelligence issue more important, than understanding the nature of the insurgency in all of its aspects."

He said US intelligence needed to take greater risks to share more sensitive information with allies such as Australia and Britain to address the threats.

General Casey said at a Senate armed services committee hearing that the constitutional referendum in two weeks and elections in December would help determine whether conditions improved enough for some of about 150,000 US troops to return home next year.

He appeared with the commander in the Middle East, General John Abizaid, the Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Richard Myers.

In Iraq, three suicide attackers set off a series of car bombs in the northern town of Balad, which is mainly Shiite, killing at least 40 people and wounding many more.

In the western town of Ramadi a roadside bomb killed five US soldiers, the military said on Thursday. Sunni insurgents have said they want to disrupt the referendum and elections.

A car bomb exploded in a crowded market in the southern town of Hilla yesterday killing at least 12 people and wounding 47, police said.

General Casey and General Abizaid told the committee Iraqi forces were growing steadily, but it could be some time before they could take over large portions of the country.

"We have built enough Iraqi capacity where we can begin talking seriously about transitioning this counterinsurgency mission to them," General Casey said.

The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, Reuters

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There is only one "level one battalion" which was not one of the three the others have dropped to "level two".

I think a full 1/3 of the IA battalions are "level two" which means they can operate in combat with American help.

dalem

Troung Never Posts Anything Positive regarding the Iraq front.

October 1, 2005

Columbia Heights, MN - Snoresville.

-dale

Ray

Dalem,

The Iraqis have no heart in what is being done because normally a Moslem will not fight a Moslem unless that Moslem is of the different sect or if they were fighting for booty and loot or to increase their empire.

That is their way of life and like it or not that is a good way, at least for the religion they believe in. One cannot grudge them this positive fact that they don't like to fight their brothers.

Even the Pakistani Army refused to fight the terrorists in NWFP and units mutinied.

The problem with people is that one superimpose thier values to judge others. Unless one observes and educate oneself about the others, one will continue to make the mistakes.

Communities and religions have different values and that is important for anyone interacting.

For example, the Japanese took on the US market because they studied the Americans, their values and their system; while the US judged them by its standards and hence they have swamped the US market when initially the US was swamping the Japanese markets.

These days one's perspective has to be global so that one is not caught napping.

The situation has so come to pass that till the time the US rids Iraq of terrorism in it entirety, they will have to remain and, at the same time, hope that one day the Iraqi Army and Police realise that they have to take over and do the job themselves.

It has achieved the state of being a massive conundrum.

Also, one should not wear blinkers or be an ostrich. One should boldly face the reality and find solutions.......and find them fast.

If they don't, then why complain that the Moslems are not tackling the problems of their society and religion?

They are also snoring!

troung

Actually I have posted plenty.... but who cares... I don't... it's called news... and readign between the lines some of the news is good...

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...093001660.html

Rumsfeld Defends Iraqi Forces

By Bradley Graham
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, October 1, 2005; Page A13

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said yesterday that Iraqi security forces are steadily improving, and he dismissed news of a drop in the number of highest-rated units as having minimal relevance.

"There are an awful lot of people chasing the wrong rabbit here, it seems to me," Rumsfeld told reporters, who pressed him and Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the top U.S. commander in Iraq, about the reduction in Iraqi forces considered able to operate independently.


Military commanders revealed the drop during congressional testimony Thursday, saying the number of "Level 1" Iraqi units had declined from three to one over the summer. The disclosure of the normally classified figures drew expressions of concern from some members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, who questioned whether U.S. forces are making sufficient progress in Iraq.

Casey arrived at a Pentagon news conference yesterday armed with statistics intended to show a much-improved Iraqi force. He noted, for instance, that the number of Level 2 units -- that is, those considered able to lead operations with U.S. support -- had doubled since May (up to 36 battalions out of a total 116 army and special police battalions, according to other officials).

Additionally, combined U.S.-Iraqi operations and independent Iraqi actions at the company level or above have jumped from about 100 in May to more than 1,300 now, Casey said. Such operations account for 80 percent of the total, he added.

"The important fact is," said Rumsfeld, ". . . that every day, every week, every month, the Iraqi security forces are larger, they're better equipped, they're better trained and they're more experienced."

He first called the decline in Level 1 units "irrelevant" and then minutes later retracted the remark, saying that "its relevance is minimal" compared with other factors.

Still, while some Iraqi units have improved, others have encountered setbacks. The rating system is based on a range of categories, including manning and equipment levels, logistics, training, leadership, and command and control. Because these conditions can fluctuate, Casey said, the ratings can change -- just as they do for U.S. units under a similar assessment process.

Casey said he did not know the specific reasons for the decline in Level 1 Iraqi forces. He recalled that some adjustments were made in the rating system to make it more understandable after its first run this spring, and some clarifications were provided to U.S. and Iraqi officers making the assessments.

Initially, he said, one brigade and two battalions had been rated in the top category. Now, the single battalion with a Level 1 rating was not even one of the original three units, he said.

The Bush administration has linked any future withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq to progress in the development of Iraqi forces. But Casey said "there is not a specific number" of Iraqi units "that have to be capable before we start reducing coalition forces."

Casey reiterated his expectation there will be some reduction in U.S. forces next year.

But he indicated the cut may not be as large as he thought as recently as July, when he predicted a "fairly substantial" withdrawal by next spring.

That prediction, he said, had assumed progress on the political and security fronts. But the draft constitution written this summer -- and to be put to a national vote on Oct. 15 -- has drawn strong Sunni Arab opposition and "didn't come out as the national compact that we thought it was going to be," Casey said.




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http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlates...313332,00.html

Rumsfeld Defends Iraqi Troops' Progress

Friday September 30, 2005 7:01 PM


AP Photo WHSW105

WASHINGTON (AP) - Iraqi security forces are getting better, not worse, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said Friday, a day after a top U.S. commander told Congress that the number of Iraqi army battalions capable of fighting without U.S. help had dropped from three to one.

``Every day, the number of Iraqi security forces are getting bigger, and they're getting better, and they're getting more experienced,'' Rumsfeld told reporters at the Pentagon.

On Thursday, Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, disclosed the reduced number of combat-ready Iraqi battalions to two congressional committees. His remarks prompted lawmakers of both parties to criticize the apparent lack of progress and question whether it would be possible to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq next year, as some have hoped.

But standing side by side with Rumsfeld Friday, Casey said Iraqi security forces are progressing and continue to take on a more prominent role defending their country with coalition forces.

``Next year at this time, I'll be much more concerned about it'' if few Iraqi battalions are still considered battle-ready by American officers.