‘Last gasp' of Iraq's violent extremists or new beginning?

**Merlin** · 12th April 2009 09:36

Most officers disagree with Robert Gates's 'last gasp' comment.

‘Last gasp' of Iraq's violent extremists or new beginning?

Apr 12, 2009 [MiamiHerald] WASHINGTON -- Midway through a week of mayhem in Iraq, Defense Secretary Robert Gates raised eyebrows when he said the recent resurgence of violence in Baghdad was "a last gasp" of Islamic extremists.

It was an echo of former Vice President Dick Cheney, who in 2005 said the insurgency was "in the last throes." The following two years were the deadliest period of the war.

Today, as in 2005, other top U.S. military and intelligence officials worry that escalating tensions could threaten the administration's plans to draw down American forces in Iraq.

A truck bomb Friday in the northern city of Mosul killed five U.S. soldiers in the deadliest attack on U.S. forces in 13 months. Since Monday, a series of explosions around the country has killed at least 60 Iraqis and injured 200.

Speaking Tuesday on "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer" on PBS, Gates said that recent violence in Baghdad was an attempt by "al-Qaida, trying sort of as a last gasp, to try and reverse the progress that's been made."

Asked why Gates played down the rise in suicide bombings, a top administration official told McClatchy Newspapers: "He made a mistake. This is more likely the first gasp of more violence, not the last."

The official, who insisted on anonymity because of the consequences of publicly criticizing a Cabinet officer, said that contrary to what Gates said, most U.S. intelligence and military officials are afraid that ethnic and sectarian violence in Iraq could explode again because "all sides are just waiting for us to leave to finish settling scores."

Tensions over land and oil recently have been increasing between Sunni Kurds and Sunni Arabs in northern Iraq, especially in Mosul and the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, and between Sunnis and Shiites in Baghdad and elsewhere.

"Clearly, changes are happening," said a senior defense official, who also requested anonymity for similar reasons. "We are watching this in terms of where the trends go. I haven't heard anyone else describe it as the last gasp."

In Iraq, many politicians and victims blame the violence in Baghdad and Mosul on sectarian tensions, not on al-Qaida in Iraq. In Mosul Friday, witnesses said that tensions between the mostly Shiite police force and the majority Sunni population have increased recently. ...

"It is inevitable that violence will go up as U.S. troops leave. Is it enough to destabilize the state? We don't know yet," said David Kilcullen, an Australian counterinsurgency expert who's advised Army Gen. David Petraeus, the former top U.S. commander in Iraq. "The danger is not that Iraq will fall back quickly. It's that will fall back slowly as we were sending more troops to Afghanistan." ....

If the violence continues, the administration may have to reconsider the pace of the drawdown in Iraq and the plans for Afghanistan. That could alter Obama's 19-month Iraq withdrawal.

"I think the Obama administration is learning that it may need to care more about Iraq," Kilcullen said.

**Robert W** · 12th April 2009 16:39

Asked why Gates played down the rise in suicide bombings, a top administration official told McClatchy Newspapers: "He made a mistake. This is more likely the first gasp of more violence, not the last."

The official, who insisted on anonymity because of the consequences of publicly criticizing a Cabinet officer, said that contrary to what Gates said, most U.S. intelligence and military officials are afraid that ethnic and sectarian violence in Iraq could explode again because "all sides are just waiting for us to leave to finish settling scores."

Ok...everyone who can't stand the nameless/faceless gutless turd who can't seem to shut up...but won't stand up for what they say...raise their hand
for god sake what is the opinion of the administration???
A ten year old who reads the news can figure out that factions in Iraq are just waiting for the USA to pull out so they can settle this for themselves.

New extreamism...hardly...just a continuation of old scores to settle...the civil war that this conflict has been itching for...so unless the USA is going pick a side we might just want to get out of the way...if there is a question about this ask a Soldier....I have...one that has spent 39 months there...the last 15 in Mosul.

**Merlin** · 12th April 2009 17:03

Robert W, The cucial consideration is whether Iraq can remain stable after the Obama announced US troop withdrawal date.

**Robert W** · 12th April 2009 18:01

Originally Posted by Merlin

Robert W, The cucial consideration is whether Iraq can remain stable after the Obama announced US troop withdrawal date.

I agree...
I just don't see all of the opposing factions and country's just standing pat
the Kurds/Shia/Sunni people of Iraq, not withstanding Turkey/PKK problem
Iran/Muqtada al-SADR, Al Qaeda In Iraq, Sons of Iraq and all of the various
political ambitions of the people in government...all I can say is I wouldn't want to be one of the fifty thousand troops that are going to remain with lousy rules of engagement.

Just my two...

**tankie** · 13th April 2009 19:36

It will be interesting to see how :democracy: pans out after the withdrawal , but IMO Iraq will go back to what it was ,but even more bloody . I hope im wrong and the people who gave their lives did not die in vain .

**Merlin** · 15th April 2009 07:10

Originally Posted by Robert W

... unless the USA is going pick a side we might just want to get out of the way...

With so much oil reserve in Iraq, the US would of course care about whether the winning side is a friendly one, and which neighboring country is going to have a strong influence over it.

**Merlin** · 18th April 2009 16:03

This is one of the basic reasons for keeping to the Obama withdrawal plan. Only time will tell whether this proves to be correct, or at least until next year.

'US presence in Iraq favors Qaeda'

17 Apr 2009 Iraq's Defense Ministry rules out any change in the US withdrawal plan despite concerns over rising al-Qaeda attacks targeting security forces.

In an interview with AFP on Friday, Iraq's Defense Ministry Spokesman, Mohammed al-Askari, warned, "al-Qaeda is trying to regain power through terrorist operations aimed at proving its existence and raising its spirits ahead of the withdrawal of US forces from the cities."

Askari said a prolonged US military presence in the country would paradoxically favor al-Qaeda by giving the militants enough excuse to justify their terrorist acts.

"It would be good for al-Qaeda if US forces stayed in Iraq, because they could justify their kidnappings, bombings and killings," he noted.

Under a US-Iraqi security pact signed in November -- far later than an expected time in summer -- the 140,000 US troops currently stationed in Iraq must leave all cities and major towns by June 30 and fully pull out of Iraqi soil by the end of 2011.

The remarks follow almost 11 days after a sharp rise in explosions and bomb attacks in major Iraqi cities, targeting Baghdad above all. ...

At least 86 have been killed since the start of the month, in what is seen as al-Qaeda-linked violence across the country.

**Merlin** · 23rd April 2009 16:47

From Iraq we got some good news and some bad news. First the good news, if this news is really correct.

Iraq Al-Qaeda boss Abu Omar al-Baghdadi 'is captured'

23 Apr [Times] Iraqi forces said today that they had arrested one of the most wanted al-Qaeda leaders in Iraq, even as his suicide bombers killed more than 70 people in attacks in and around Baghdad.

Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, a leader of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq, was held in the capital after a tip-off, said Major General Qasim Atta, Baghdad’s security spokesman.

The Islamic State of Iraq is a shadowy, al-Qaeda-linked, Islamist umbrella group that in 2006 declared an independent caliphate in mainly Sunni West Baghdad, as well as in areas to the north and west. Modelled on the Taleban in Afghanistan, it murdered and intimidated anyone who did not adhere to its strict Islamist rulings.

Iraqi security forces have reported al-Baghdadi’s death and capture on several different occasions in the past, ... Some intelligence sources ... claimed that they are fronts either to throw the security forces off the scent or, in the case of al-Baghdadi, to give the terrorist network an Iraqi face. ....

**Merlin** · 23rd April 2009 16:57

Now this below is the bad news.

Bombings kill more than 70 in Iraq

1 hr ago BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Suicide bombers in Iraq launched two deadly attacks Thursday, killing at least 45 people in Diyala province and at least 28 in Baghdad, an Iraqi Interior Ministry official said.

An attacker set off a suicide vest at a restaurant in Imam Wais, a Diyala provincial security official said. The area is about 43 miles (70 kilometers) northeast of Baquba, capital of the sprawling province that is north and east of Baghdad.

The Diyala bombing, which targeted Iranian pilgrims, also wounded 28, ... the pilgrims -- who had been visiting Shiite shrines -- stopped for lunch at the restaurant when the attack occurred. .... the restaurant collapsed after the bombing, ....

In central Baghdad, a bomber clad in a suicide vest attacked a crowd of national police, killing 28 police and civilians and wounding 52. Police had been helping the Red Crescent distribute aid to displaced families in the Karrada district.

Despite the declining levels of violence in Iraq over recent months, the latest strikes reflect what appears to be a slight uptick from March to April of assaults on civilians, U.S. and Iraqi security forces, and the U.S.-backed militias called Awakening Councils or Sons of Iraq. ....

**Merlin** · 24th April 2009 04:21

Apparently the two incidents are related. The bombings are likely in retaliation to the reported capture of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the al Qaeda leader in Iraq.

Iraq: dozens killed following al-Qaida leader capture

24 Apr [Guardian] At least 83 people were killed across Iraq yesterday in four bombings that swiftly followed the apparent arrest of the country's most wanted man, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, al-Qaida's leader in Iraq. ....

Major General Qassem Attar of the Iraqi army later said Baghdadi had been arrested around noon in Resafa district, not far from the scene of the second explosion, in what he described as a "heroic operation" by Iraqi forces. He said the bombings were likely to have been al-Qa'ida's response to the arrest.

The announcement of his capture was treated cautiously by American and British military officials who now have less access to details of Iraqi military operations than they did last year. But several officials last night described the announcement as credible. ....

**Merlin** · 25th April 2009 09:02

After these increase in bombing attacks, and one month before the US withdrawal date, Clinton made an unannounced visit to Iraq.

Clinton in Iraq amid new violence

Hillary Clinton has landed in the Iraqi capital Baghdad for her first visit to the country as US secretary of state.

Her visit comes in the wake of two days of suicide bomb attacks on Baghdad and other Iraqi towns which killed at least 155 people and wounded many others.

Mrs Clinton said she wanted to help identify how to counter the violence.

President Barack Obama, who visited Iraq a couple of weeks ago, has committed the US to withdrawing troops from Iraqi cities by the end of June.

All combat brigades are to leave by next summer.

Violence fell sharply in Iraq in the last year.

But because of the recent attacks, there will be a lot of head-scratching about whether the timetables should be stuck to or whether they should be flexible, the BBC's Jim Muir in Baghdad says.

The attacks do not yet seem to be a sustained trend, but they seem to be starting to take on a rhythm which is truly alarming for the Iraqi government and for the Americans, our correspondent says. ...

**Swift Sword** · 25th April 2009 18:54

At the risk of sounding cynical: wake me up when the car/truck/suicide/roadside/market/Mosque/xyz-bombings drop off to pre 2003 levels.

Then we shall discuss the "last gasp".

William

**Merlin** · 26th April 2009 04:14

On the one hand, Clinton while visiting Baghdad, pledges to keep troops in Iraq if violence escalates.

But back home, I feel the US public is already having an Iraq fatigue. They seem to be hoping not to delay the troop withdrawal, see below. They feel it is not their concern if the Iraqi fight among themselves.

Clinton pledges to keep troops in Iraq if violence escalates

26 Apr [Guardian] The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, made a surprise visit to Baghdad yesterday to reassure Iraqi leaders that the Obama White House would refrain from withdrawing its troops from urban areas if renewed violence continued to worsen.

Clinton's visit, her first since being appointed in January, followed a sharp surge in attacks over the past three days that left as many as 155 dead and prompted fears that recent security gains could unravel.

The attacks, which have mostly taken place in and around Baghdad, have sparked concern that the planned US drawback in July could destabilise areas which the withdrawal was meant to consolidate. .....

Hefty support for Obama's Iraq withdrawal: poll

7 Apr WASHINGTON (AFP) — More than two-thirds of Americans support President Barack Obama's plans to withdraw most US troops from Iraq, a new poll said Tuesday as Obama paid a surprise visit to Baghdad.

A total of 69 percent backed the withdrawal plan while 30 percent were opposed, the poll by CNN and Opinion Research Corp. said.

In February Obama announced he was pulling most combat troops out of Iraq by August 2010, although a force of up to 50,000 will remain until the end of the following year. The current deployment is more than 140,000.

A military accord signed last November between Baghdad and Washington requires all US forces to leave the country by the end of 2011. ...

**Robert W** · 26th April 2009 20:33

A total of 69 percent backed the withdrawal plan while 30 percent were opposed, the poll by CNN and Opinion Research Corp. said.

That seems about right,
I think most people in the US have come to the conclusion that the US military has taken this about as far as they can....or should...as I have written in other threads on this board before,Unless we are going to take one side whichever it would be... the future of their country is their own they are going to have to sort out for themselves.
You can see that the current administration's heart just isn't in this one that was never a secret the President never supported this campaign from the start or any time up till now we have spilled enough American blood and spent enough of our treasure to have the credibility to say....it's time to "fly" on your own.

My two...

**1947** · 23rd May 2009 00:22

al queda may still keep attacking but i dont believe the people of iraq are to keen on visiting the atrocities they committed around 2006 /2007

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