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From the Christian Science Monitor another story of Kurdish success and the continuing grip on regional politics held by PUK and the KDP. While the high levels of economic development and low levels of violence are attractive to investors, particularly when coupled to a permissive environment for energy development, charges of corruption and nepotism plague the KRG.

"Kurdistan Gas City" and the Future of the KRG- CSM

From Nechirvan Barzani, the KRG prime minister-

"During a recent interview, Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani spoke with passion about his vision for the region, which he says can serve as a model for the rest of Iraq and a 'steppingstone' for investment in the rest of a country that has some of the world's largest untapped oil reserves.

'We just want to rebuild our region as part of Iraq, that's it. We are not a threat to anybody. We want to be a factor of stability,' says Mr. Barzani, denying that his region eyes secession.

His foreign relations adviser, Falah Mustafa, says that while 97.5 percent of Kurds in the region support the idea based on the results of an informal referendum in 2005, it would be unrealistic. 'It's better for us to go for something that's achievable and viable. We did not push too hard, we did not go unrealistic.'"

This is deeply reassuring and was conveyed to Turkish officials in a Baghdad meeting on Thursday, May 1st. What isn't so reassuring is the continuing friction between the Kurds and the Iraqi gov't over the award of energy contracts. While not unusual for the region, the absence of transparency in the various awarded energy contracts reflects a continuing hold on Kurdish politics by only a few key families.

It's nice to keep Kurdistan in mind when thinking of Iraq.

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"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski

Big K

from my point of view and truly honest, a Kurdistan idea is not a realistic one.

they dont want to go in all those troubles when they became a state...

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When i say, there will be no effect but i am not willing to remain silent.
-Fuzuli

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Kurds of Iraq will do what they have to do to survive. The comment about the referendum vote by Falah Mustafa is revealing that, despite an overwhelming mandate from it's constituency, the KRG sees real issues in not casting it's fate to Iraq and presently prefers a federated Iraq to an independant KRG.

When you think about it carefully, it makes perfect sense under the circumstances.

Big K

yes i see

but what now?... i mean Iraq is like a zombie...what will be in once-Iraqs territorys?...

bolo121

It seems that the Kurds want to formally agree to be part of Iraq while in practice running their own show. They might bribe the other factions to accept this by sharing revenue from oil and gas. This would maybe keep turkey from attacking as they have refrained from declaring an independent Kurdistan.
However the fly in the ointment is the PKK, if they could be persuaded by bribery and coercion to let up on Turkey well and good but if they continue to use the border as a safe haven while attacking turkey, then in the end Turkey would be compelled to retaliate with invasion.

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"...like a zombie"

I'm not sure there. Go read my thread here on the Iraq board about debunked myths of Iraq.

Big K, I believe that this has always boiled down to offering Kurds their best chance at secure self-governance. In northern Iraq they have that under the full protection of the Iraqi gov't and (for now and more importantly) the U.S. It is why Turkey's operations last December and February were not physically contested by the peshmerga or Iraqi army forces. The KRG understands that it's survival is fully linked to Iraq's because they cannot forever place America between themselves and Turkey.

This is good for the region. Both Turks and Kurdish Turk citizens need to see the success of an autonomous Kurdistan within a federated Iraq. While it may not be a perfect model for Turkish integration of Kurdish aspirations and identity to the nat'l fabric, it offers hope that mechanisms of functional accomodation can be found...

...particularly where there's money to be made.

Big K

thats the source and solution of all problems, isnt it?

and i heard that Turkish officials will be placed at NI soon?...this is a step forward right?

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"However the fly in the ointment is the PKK, if they could be persuaded by bribery and coercion to let up on Turkey well and good but if they continue to use the border as a safe haven while attacking turkey, then in the end Turkey would be compelled to retaliate with invasion."

It's hard to tell at this point. The operations last winter were only modestly protested by Kurds in key northern cities of Iraq. Very minimal noise by the Iraqi Kurd public and no defense made by PUK or KDP militias in support of the PKK.

Lots of possible reasons to include the Iraqi Kurds understanding the limitations that terrain and weather would inevitably play in the scope and outcome of these operations. All indications thus far also suggest that the PKK retains only very minimal support within the Iraqi Kurd communities and are generally alienated from mainstream Kurdish politics as they are increasingly seen as a threat to Kurdish autonomy.

I long ago predicted that Iraqi Kurdistan would become the final redoubt of the Kurdish diaspora. As such, it's security would/should be paramount when considered against an organization (PKK) who's actions could generate blow-back from Turkey that would destroy all of these hard-won recent Kurdish advances. Sorta the old Stalinist precept of defending the mother of the revolution (the Soviet Union) at the expense of risking all for the international proletariat.

bolo121

Yes i had noticed the lack of noise over Turkey's recent operations.
Really seems like touch and go politics wise.
But if the PKK leadership proves obstinate, I wonder if the other Kurd militias would move against them?
Another point would be if Turkey could use the Kurdish part of Iraq as a sort of safety valve, letting those who want to live as Kurds and not as Turkish Citizens emigrate.

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"...and i heard that Turkish officials will be placed at NI soon?...this is a step forward right?"

You're ahead of me there. Love to see a link if you can find one. I didn't know that. Long overdue and a HUGE step forward in the right direction. Turkey needs to be VERY CAREFUL here but there's a grand opportunity to reverse perceptions if both sides can engage constructively.

It would be foolish if it isn't treated as a four-cornered room. Iraqi and American mediation can help smooth perceptions and ease transitory problems but eliminating the PKK begins with Turkish and Kurdish officials and, ultimately, military commanders talking and then working on the ground.

The PKK benefits none of the regional players, to include Turkish Kurds, and it's to everybody's benefit that they pass into the pages of history as soon as possible.

snc128

that is what I see as well. they have huge idea differencies with the Iraqi Gov't based on oil politics and revenues. they cant claim to be peaceful while they act independent from Iraqi Gov.t about vital oil management issue. even in this phase, they are not loyal their Gov't, who knows what will be as long as they become powerful.
on the day, they declare their independence, the MidEast will face another problem to be fixed among so many other problems. then the question is: what if other etnically Kurd people rebel in their home countries, which are Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria, upon hearing an independent Kurdistan. this will probably means another intervention by US.
and that is what people in the region does not demand!
if US really wants to see stability in the region, and thus wants the terrorism trend is to over (because one of the major component of terror in the region is instability in terms of order and economics), he should teach Iraqi Kurds where they belong to!

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action speaks louder than words

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"...that is what I see as well. they have huge idea differencies with the Iraqi Gov't based on oil politics and revenues."

Read the Iraqi constitution. My suspicion is that many Turkish nationalists see what they wish to see. Naturally, you see an autonomous Kurdistan as a threat to Turkey.

I see it very differently. Note the comments by Kurdistan's leaders. They recognize their gains are tenuous and demand stabilization through legitimacy. They have that now and won't support Kurdish nationalist/terror movements elsewhere at the expense of those gains.

snc128, you choice is simple. You can have much more of the same and possibly worse or you can begin to build upon the positives that stem from the development of Kurdish autonomy in Iraq.

Mismanaged and, of course, you'll be able to achieve your worst nightmares of terror-war unceasing. Some in your government and here, however, might be seeing different possibilities than just more of the same ol', same ol'.

snc128

First of all, there is nothing like Kurdish nationalists. I presume, you are talking about PKK/PJAK terrorists and their derivatives. however, they are Lenninist/ Maoist communist organizations.

another mistake is the people you were refering as Kurdish leaders have very different characters and sayings. I appreciate their sayings which support peace and stability in the region.

my friends go to Iraq for commerical purposes. what most of them say that there are still clashes between Kurds and local Arabs. because most of the oil fields belong to individuals, especially to Arabs and Turkomans that had settled down in the north of Iraq.
of course, I can't prove these here.believe it or not. it is your choice.

as you know, according to new oil deal, oil revenue will be shared equally based on population. we are talking about Iraq: one the most instable country over the region! formality are very rare there.
TODAY'S ZAMAN - Kurdish oil move could start Iraqi energy rush
take a look at this!

my choice is frank enough. I said what I belive. some may think different than me as well as there will be some that thinks different than you, both in your Gov't and here.

I did not like this comment! I do not remember I said one word or imply about my political views.


as a last word, of course, I am not against my Kurd brothers' existing at the region. I just draw a scenario at my previous post.

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I made my comment in response to this by you-

"then the question is: what if other etnically Kurd people rebel in their home countries, which are Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria, upon hearing an independent Kurdistan."

This certainly implies your political views. It specifically speaks to the fears of those who believe that an autonomous Kurdistan shall inspire the same elsewhere.

Perhaps, perhaps not that the idea alone shall do so. Active assistance, however, from Kurdistan to groups attempting this objective would, now, create unbearable pressures on Iraq from Syria, Turkey, and Iran.

Were Iraq to formally partition, support by an independant Kurdistan for liberation movements in adjacent countries would likely provoke open war. Would Iran, Syria, and Turkey win? Nobody seems to have thoroughly suppress Kurdish aspirations yet so that's very much an open question. What can be assured, though, is that an independant Kurdistan would cease to exist.

The risk is too great for the tangential gains of Kurdish homelands in adjacent nations. Greater Kurdistan shall never exist. Thoughtful Kurds know this. Endangering their present gains for this unattainable ambition is not rational and there's been no indication- NOT A PEEP- that the KRG formally supports Kurdish nationalist movements in adjacent countries.

Sorry if you're offended but I've heard these expressed views of yours many, many times already from others and it only continues to prop up more of the same dangerous sentiments that have created this mess in the first place.

I'm looking for solutions and they won't come from more of the same.

bolo121

The point of view expressed in your post is the greatest threat. If Turkey can control its more ultra nationalistic elements and preserve common ground with the Kurds in Iraq, the issue of an independent kurdish nation with parts of turkey in it can be smothered somewhat.
If i recall from posts i read earlier in other threads, the kurds did initially control the whole area before saddam moved in and began to settle arabs especially in the towns so that he could control the oil fields.
There is no need to teach the Iraqi Kurds anything. They recognise their position and its vulnerabilities. Their posture in iraq, where they are willing to share oil revenues in exchange for local autonomy is eminently reasonable.