Shek

General Petraeus Gets CENTCOM (Updated) (SWJ Blog)

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"So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

nebula82

Do you think General Petraeus is a future viable candidate for the position of Army Chief of Staff? It would seem to be the most likely progression after his term at Centcom expires. After all he oversaw the development of the counterinsurgency field manual some yrs ago, think he would make a good candidate for Army Chief of Staff.

Nebula82.

bolo121

Could this also be a precautionary move as the surge winds down? After all the political progress needed in order to keep the quiet period going has so far not been forthcoming. So move the good general up the chain so that as things slowly unwind again, he wont be that much in the spotlight.

S-2

No. It's pretty clear now that Thomas P.M. Barnett's article on Adm. Fallon was a set-up by Fallon to sell his message as he was heading to the door.

Fallon lost. Petraeus' message about the Iranians is the clearer and stronger impulse. Any sort of broad and globally-balanced perspective (read "NAVY") is gone to be replaced by a focused COIN effort in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Barnett's article is accurate to suggest that the schism is so profound as to demand a clear demarcation in choices. That choice has been made.

The fascinating survivor in all this is Gen. Odierno. Quite the self-transformation.

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"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski

S-2

Continuity of leadership and direction.

Comments from nat'l talking-heads-

"Max Boot (Commentary's Contentions): Odierno spent the year from early 2007 to early 2008 working closely with Petraeus to supervise the implementation of the surge. They were by far the most successful team of commanders we have had in Iraq–potentially the Grant/Sherman or Eisenhower/Patton of this long conflict. Yet there was a strong impetus back in DC to break up the winning combination–as seen in Odierno’s rotation home earlier this year and in persistent rumors that Petraeus would be sent to NATO. That is something I warned against in a January post, in which I suggested that a better move would be to send Petraeus to Centcom and Odierno to MNFI. But, based on his track record, I knew I could not necessarily count on the President doing the right thing. Now he has. That gives us a chance to build on the initial success of the surge in the challenging months that lie ahead.

Shawn Brimley (Democracy Arsenal): First, it clearly reflects a desire for some continuity in Iraq over the presidential transition – this is a good thing. With Ambassador Crocker retiring in early 2009, this will ensure that at least the top military commander in Iraq will stay consistent through the transition. Wartime transitions are inherently dangerous, and I'm glad Gates and Co. are thinking this through.

Phil Carter (Intel Dump): After ousting Adm. William "Fox" Fallon for various sins, Gates tapped his top Iraq commander to run the organization responsible for both of America's wars and a bunch of other hotspots. As my friends at Abu Muqawama note, the challenge will be for Petraeus to command CENTCOM in a way that embraces all of these places, and shows no improper preference for Iraq (although Iraq is the main effort for CENTCOM, so some preference will be natural). Another challenge will be for Petraeus to sustain himself and his staff in yet another grueling assignment. Granted, he'll be home-based in Tampa, Fla., but I don't imagine he'll spend much time there.

Charlie (Abu Muqawama): General David Petraeus has been tapped to replace Admiral Fox Fallon at Centcom. But CNN buries the lead: the real story is that LTG Odierno is headed back to Iraq to replace Petraeus.

Abu Muqawama (Abu Muqawama): Abu Muqawama respectfully disagrees with Charlie that the big story here is Odierno moving to Iraq. Abu Muqawama has no problem with this and thinks he's an okay choice at this stage in the conflict. The big story is Petraeus moving to CENTCOM. Why? Because aside from the president, no one man is more closely associated with the war in Iraq than General David Petraeus. America's success or failure in Iraq will largely determine his legacy.

Tom Barnett (Thomas PM Barnett): But overall, good for the military change process and good for the COIN vector. If Petraeus goes from CENTCOM to the CJCS, which many will now anticipate all the more, depending on his perceived success in this post, then he logically ends up as the pivotal player in military's post-9/11 evolution, eclipsing Schoomaker and Rumsfeld by a ways. His career trajectory thus contradicting the "one-off" school of thought on Iraq.

Richard Fernandez (The Belmont Club): More important than his battlefield successes in Iraq may be the implied victory in Pentagon politics that his nomination to CENTCOM chief suggests. It's important to remember that before the Surge, Petraeus' ideas were on the margin. Now they are in the mainstream.

William Kristol (Weekly Standard Blog): The allegedly lame duck Bush administration has--if this report is correct--hit a home run. CENTCOM is the central theater of the war on terror, and the president is putting our best commander in charge of it. What Odierno achieved as day-to-day commander in Iraq was amazing (see Fred and Kim Kagan’s article, "The Patton of Counterinsurgency"), and he’s clearly the right choice for MNFI. Bush has done the right thing, overriding opposition from within the Pentagon. He deserves congratulations--and thanks.

Spencer Ackerman (Washington Independent): Terrence Daly, a retired Army officer and long-time mentor to many counterinsurgency theorists, considered the appointment auspicious for both the course of both ground wars -- though not necessarily for the rise of counterinsurgency within a military often reluctant to embrace it. "This moves Petraeus into an important post from where he will be able to oversee the prosecution of both of our major counterinsurgencies, Afghanistan and Iraq," Daly said. "It moves him away from the Army, however, where he was regarded as a possible successor to Gen. George Casey as chief of staff of the Army; and, unlike Casey who wants to take the Army back to the emphasis on conventional fire and maneuver warfare, one who would carry out far-reaching reforms to enable it to deal with COIN [counterinsurgency] more effectively."

Blademaster

Looks like there is a fundamental shift to the way the Army will fight its future wars. I think Robert Gates is forcing the Pentagon to abandon its mindset of fighting Cold War style and Gulf War I style battles and wars and focus more on the COIN operations like the US went through after the Tet offensive when Abrams replaced Westmoreland. But of course, they will go through this shift back to conventional warfare like they did in the mid 70s when US's military forces were termed as a "hollow" force.

Why can't they have two forces: one for conventional warfare and one for COIN?

Shek

$$

Blademaster

And yet they spend more on relearning that they have to shift to the other kind of force after spending more money learning that what they have doesn't work.

It actually saves more money in the long run if you have two forces at the same time.

Shek

Welcome to the world of 5 year budget plans, single year budget execution, and 2, 4, and 6 year election cycles. The government budget cycle is inefficient, but it has to also be tied to the legislature since that is its Consitutional role.

Ryan Bailey

In the broadest sense we may find some nationally motivating collective enchantment with the dedication to committed refinement and perpetual honing of military formations and strategies that the US General Officer Corps has come to embody in the GWOT.

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"If we will not be governed by God then we will be ruled by tyrants" -William Penn

S-2

"In the broadest sense we may find some nationally motivating collective enchantment with the dedication to committed refinement and perpetual honing of military formations and strategies that the US General Officer Corps has come to embody in the GWOT."

Ryan,

Gotta work on your brevity. That's one sentence. I can be damned "wordy" but that really takes the cake.

DO NOT- I repeat, DO NOT write a MOU, LOI, OER, or any other acronym-laced military correspondence with such verbosity. Some colonel from Texas will likely eat you for lunch and remove the remains with a silver toothpick.

Equilibrium

Odierno's longevity has long interested me as well. He is believed by many to have followed a counterproductive search and destroy COIN strategy with his division during the 2003-05 period. Thomas Ricks in "Fiasco" goes into some detail about his operations during that period.

I find the irony in that Petraeus was reasigned to Leavenworth for criticizing the DoD leadership and Gen. Sanchez' strategy during the 2003-05 period while Gen. Odierno, who was committed to the previous COIN strategy advanced when Petraeus returned like the Phoenix in '07.

Ironduke

I sure hope Petraeus isn't being "kicked upstairs."

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The Buck Stops Here

Ironduke

I agree. No offense, but you are a bit too verbose.

S-2

I know. I'm workin' on it.