Kurdish region rethinking independence

Ray · 12-04-2007, 02:25 AM

Quote:

WORLD
Kurdish region rethinking independence

Turks' recent threat to invade tells many they need Iraq

By Bay Fang | Tribune correspondent
10:33 AM CST, December 2, 2007

IRBIL, Iraq - In the barren brown hills outside the Kurdish capital of Irbil, across the highway from what used to be the American outpost in northern Iraq, a little piece of the U.S. is being built.

Skeletons of villas dot the hillside, neat two-story structures with garages that look out of place among the spare cypress trees. A sign on the side of the highway is emblazoned with the same sun that is on the Kurdish flag, behind the words: American Village.

"It's a little Columbia, Md., here in Iraq," said Jim Covert, the Kurdistan country director for Virginia-based Sigma International Construction, developer of the $80 million project. "They love anything American here, so we're building this as a typical American subdivision."

The project, which will include 400 villas and a mall, originally waa intended for Baghdad. When that city descended into chaos, the company decided to transplant the concept 200 miles north, far from the car bombs and sectarian violence that plagued the rest of Iraq.

American Village is one of a gaggle of complexes popping up around town with such names as English Village and Italian Village to house thousands of international businesspeople and middle-class Iraqis pouring into the area.

The regional government passed its own investment and oil laws last year and recently announced more than 20 oil and gas agreements with foreign companies. These are all signs of the Kurdistan region's speedy path to what some might call de facto independence.

Despite their long-held aspirations toward independence, many Kurds may now be at a crossroads in their thinking.

The recent threat of an incursion by Turkey in pursuit of Kurdish guerrillas has caused many here to recognize how much they need Iraq. Concerns about that threat rose again Saturday when the Turkish military announced it had attacked 50 to 60 Kurdish rebels inside Iraqi territory, inflicting "significant losses," although the threat of a large-scale invasion has diminished.

While some of the region's leaders have pushed for a more active role for the Kurdish regional government in negotiating a solution to the crisis, they also were forced to confront the reality that they could not go it alone.

"Many of us have come to recognize that nationalism is both limiting and limited," said Barham Saleh, a Kurd and deputy Iraqi prime minister. "While I as a Kurd always dream of a Kurdish state, and consider it a fundamental right of the Kurdish people, I have come to see that being part of the larger market of Iraq, with the protections afforded us by a democratic Iraq, offers the Kurdish people tangible advantages."

Since the Kurdish enclave became semiautonomous after the 1991 gulf war, under the protection of a UN-established no-fly zone, it has been surrounded by neighbors with sizable Kurdish ethnic populations and therefore wary of the Kurdish experiment in self-rule. At various times, Syria, Turkey and Iran have all launched attacks inside the territory.

In the most recent crisis, many watchers of the Kurdistan region believe that if it had not been part of a sovereign Iraq, the Turkish military would not have hesitated to launch a much more significant attack across the border. While concerns about that possibility have diminished, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that his Cabinet had authorized the army to mount "a cross-border operation."

The Washington factor

The Kurdistan region's relationship with the U.S., commonly seen as its protector, also depends largely on its role in the greater Iraq. Washington considers Kurdish participation in the Baghdad government as a key to protecting American interests in Iraq.

"The Kurds' role in Baghdad is fundamental to checking the rise of [Shiite] fundamentalism," said one senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "If the Kurds weren't part of the central government in Baghdad, it would simply be a [Shiite] majority dominating a Sunni minority, and the chances of a secure, stable and prosperous Iraq would be severely diminished."

But some Kurds feel conflicted, believing the region does more for the central government than it gets in return. Under the constitution's revenue-sharing formula, the northern Kurdish enclave receives 17 percent of all Iraqi oil revenue. But many Kurds think their economy deserves more.

Falah Mustafa Bakir, the Kurdish government's head of foreign relations, argues that the Kurdistan region should not be held back by the central government's ineptitude.

"It should not just be us doing things. Iraq has a big budget, but it can't implement it," he said. But he articulates the dilemma faced by the region. "Today we live in Iraq. We want to help our people, and we want to help build Iraq. But at the same time, we want to move ahead, and provide a better quality of life. The question is, can we do it alone?"

For many in Iraqi Kurdistan, the answer was always "of course." In an informal referendum conducted alongside Iraq's 2005 election, 95 percent of voters said they would prefer an independent Kurdistan.

Back at the American Village office, Awat al-Barzanji pores over the plans for his 9,000-square-foot villa, known as the "Palace" model.

Al-Barzanji, who was the spokesman for the United Nations in Irbil from 1997 to 1999, returned in 2004 to work for his family's construction company.

'Always that if'

"This place could turn into a miniature [United Arab Emirates] in five years' time," he said. "But there's always that if -- if their cards are played right, if policies have that as an aim, if they draw a line between Kurdistan and the rest of Iraq, and keep all the problems down there."

Thousands of refugees from other parts of Iraq have arrived over the past few years, but tough registration laws limit the number who stay. A security trench around Irbil is 3 yards wide and 3 yards deep, and there are only seven points of entry around the city. Kurdish militiamen who staff the checkpoints quiz those entering the city and are especially tough on Arab newcomers.

Despite popular distrust, the Kurdistan government is trying to reach out both to neighboring countries and to other Iraqis.

The government also has reached out diplomatically to Iran, which opened a new consulate in November. Although several countries have what are called embassy offices or commercial sections in the Kurdish north, Iran and Russia are the only ones with full consulates.

"They are acting like a state as much as they can," said Luigi Orsini, whose card reads Consular Correspondent of the Embassy of Italy in Baghdad but who is referred to as the Italian ambassador. "They have their own channels to receive diplomats."

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bfang@tribune.com

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...ck=1&cset=true

Kurdish independence will be a headache for the US.

It will alienate a NATO ally, Turkey and at the same time would make the relations with Iraq frosty.

However, with Kurds within the Iraq Union, the US will have a decisive ally within the Iraqi state and thus will be able to influence the decisions made by the Iraqi government.

Since Iraq has the second largest oilfields and the largest source of sweet oil, it will be beneficial to have Iraq on the amenable to US strategic and national interests.

Therefore, it apparently is panning out in the US' favour and the change in the mindset surely would have had the US backing.

Cynics may even claim that the recent Turkish attacks on Kurd rebels would have also had tacit approval so as to coax the Kurds see reason.

S-2 · 12-04-2007, 03:33 AM

"Cynics may even claim that the recent Turkish attacks on Kurd rebels would have also had tacit approval so as to coax the Kurds [sic] see reason."

Heaven forbid!

Cynical or otherwise, there's times when recalcitrant souls need to be reminded on which side that their bread is buttered.

TTL · 12-04-2007, 05:37 AM

By the way recent ''Turkish Attacks'' was on PKK not Kurdish Regional Government. Though in my opinion it is quite true that Kurds don't have any regional allies and won't be able to sustain an independent state without extensive US aid.

S-2 · 12-04-2007, 18:03 PM

"Though in my opinion it is quite true that Kurds don't have any regional allies and won't be able to sustain an independent state without extensive US aid."

Well, they're sorta already sustaining the independant state of Iraq and, with our help, they'd be fine on their own. The issue remains the PKK and slowly Kurds are seeing the limitations which come with supporting trans-national kurdish terrorism.

They've gained a lot. Kurds could equally lose it in a heartbeat. One nation prevents that and one alone-America. Had America left Iraq one year ago it's reasonable to suggest that Turkish forces would today be patrolling a living hell for all concerned on the streets of kurdish Iraq. Good, bad, or indifferent for Turkey, it would be the end of all Kurdistan has heretofore gained.

That's leverage, baby. Nobody, least of all the KRG, needs this headache just now and I've little doubt that we didn't assuage the Turkish gov't's anger right to the brink but no further.

Turkey now needs to use this issue as an opportunity to actively promote/engage with the Iraqi and KRG security components in bi/multilateral discussions of mutual concerns. Doing so pro-actively in the name of a mutually identified and agreed concern can open doors to greater cross-border knowledge, trust, and cooperation. This, in turn, builds the credibility of the respective institutions in their oppos eye. It allows you to, in the parlance of Ronald Reagan, "...trust but verify..." by exchanging info and planning joint ops/patrols, etc. You can guage the other's commitment.

If I were Turkey, I'd be leaning for much closer ties while relaxing the overt threats. We'll then see if the KRG are more forthcoming with their assistance.

Ucar · 12-05-2007, 05:12 AM

A bit of political insight from Turkey

Turkey's official policy both in international and domestic affairs, has been and still is to recognize Iraq as a unitary country. The KRG is by definition is unacceptable to Turkey. This point has been stressed implicitly several times by decision makers, since it would mean the establishment of an authority leading to the way to a Kurdish national state. Therefore, Turkey has preferred to support Kurdish groups in the region against PKK, but has not officially recognized their sovereignty in the region.

Thus, Turkey is preferring to hold negotiations with the US and Baghdad government as the representatives of parties to this problem. Therefore, although there is an ongoing organic link between Turkish and KRG security establishments in the region, Turkey prefers to handle its communications and decisions via Baghdad.

TTL · 12-05-2007, 06:37 AM

What I meant was an independent Kurdish State separated from Iraq. I agree that Turkey should follow a constructive policy towards Iraq, and would like to see a balanced and stable neighbour in Turkey's south so we can trade and cooperate with them on many issues including security. However trans-national Kurdish insurgency is perceived as a threat by Turkey,Iran and Syria. Also shiites and sunnis have problems with the Kurds over the oil income. How can they sustain themselves with enemies on every side. This is why I think their dream to create a separate state will remain only a dream for now.

Big K · 12-05-2007, 07:13 AM

Alexander the Great asked Aristo how to dominate people that live on the lands that he conquered?
1- exile persons of prominence?
2- jail them?
3- kill them?

answer of Aristo

1- they will regroup and make a revolt against you
2- your prisons will be home of militant and will go out of control
3- next generation will grow with hatred and shake your throne...

and heres the Aristo's solution:

"saw the seeds of discord,
when they fight eachother impose yourself as arbitrator,
clog the roads leading to the agreement"...

heres the situation in Iraq!

S-2 · 12-05-2007, 07:20 AM

"Turkey's official policy both in international and domestic affairs, has been and still is to recognize Iraq as a unitary country."

This, too, is America's policy. Doing anything otherwise is a de facto challenge to Iraq's sovereignty and an explicit encouragement of partition.

That said, Ucar, your comments provoke a variety of considerations-

"The KRG is by definition is unacceptable to Turkey. This point has been stressed implicitly several times by decision makers, since it would mean the establishment of an authority leading to the way to a Kurdish national state."

I believe that this might be an obstinate refusal by Turkey to acknowledge a fait accompli that now exists and would manifest itself rather more prominently as a sovereign state. While partition is increasingly unlikely, it must still be considered in light of Iraq's inability to achieve legislative reconciliation.

This PKK-engineered crisis has provoked a delicate balancing act by America's diplomats. To date, I've been pleasantly surprised that we've managed such a nuanced consideration. Too, Turkey's restraint in light of continuous provocation has been commendable.

Ucar, here's the issue- should the Peshmerga eliminate the PKK, what then? I believe that America possesses enough leverage with the Kurds, much less the Iraqis, to eventually accomplish this objective. I think doing so is in everybody's interest.

That said, it will be in Kurdistan that Turks will seek cross-border economic opportunities. Even something so simple as a Turkish trade legation in Irbil, for instance, will find a Kurdish flag flying near by. Do you not send the trade representatives anyway?

Khan_Han · 12-05-2007, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S-2

"Turkey's official policy both in international and domestic affairs, has been and still is to recognize Iraq as a unitary country."

This, too, is America's policy. Doing anything otherwise is a de facto challenge to Iraq's sovereignty and an explicit encouragement of partition.

That said, Ucar, your comments provoke a variety of considerations-

"The KRG is by definition is unacceptable to Turkey. This point has been stressed implicitly several times by decision makers, since it would mean the establishment of an authority leading to the way to a Kurdish national state."

I believe that this might be an obstinate refusal by Turkey to acknowledge a fait accompli that now exists and would manifest itself rather more prominently as a sovereign state. While partition is increasingly unlikely, it must still be considered in light of Iraq's inability to achieve legislative reconciliation.

This PKK-engineered crisis has provoked a delicate balancing act by America's diplomats. To date, I've been pleasantly surprised that we've managed such a nuanced consideration. Too, Turkey's restraint in light of continuous provocation has been commendable.

Ucar, here's the issue- should the Peshmerga eliminate the PKK, what then? I believe that America possesses enough leverage with the Kurds, much less the Iraqis, to eventually accomplish this objective. I think doing so is in everybody's interest.

That said, it will be in Kurdistan that Turks will seek cross-border economic opportunities. Even something so simple as a Turkish trade legation in Irbil, for instance, will find a Kurdish flag flying near by. Do you not send the trade representatives anyway?

(1) The Sovereignty of the Turkish Republic is of utmost importance to the Turkish people. We could not care less about any lost potential trade opportunities with Northern Iraq.
(2) There is no such thing as "Kurdistan". There never was and there never will be! Today's Nation State's are NOT built on ethnicity. Hence, the Kurdish peoples cannot just aim to resurrect an independent nation of theirs on another sovereign nations soil! If such, is accepted by the International community, this will lead to worldwide devastation! The Kurdish people should accept living as either an Iraqi, Syrian, Iranian or Turkish citizen and get on with their lives.
This is like saying that the Native Americans should have an independent state on US territory…Who will accept this? NO ONE!!!
(3) Trust me Turkey can reverse such “fait accompli”!! It’s not, for no reason that we have massed 300,000 heavily armed soldiers on the Iraqi border! It was said in 1974 that Turkey is bluffing but we all saw what happened. Hopefully, the current situation will not escalate to such level, because it will be the beginning of World War 3!

S-2 · 12-05-2007, 16:26 PM

"(1) The Sovereignty of the Turkish Republic is of utmost importance to the Turkish people. We could not care less about any lost potential trade opportunities with Northern Iraq."

Do you live in southeastern Turkey? What does cross-border trade with a region who's economy is booming have to do with your nat'l sovereignty, particularly if security along such border is established in the absence of a threat by the PKK? What then threatens your nat'l sovereignty such that a trade legation cannot visit Irbil? Your reaction is confoundingly obstinate and makes me wonder just how closely you may have read my comments before turning red with anger.

"(2) There is no such thing as "Kurdistan". There never was and there never will be! Today's Nation State's are NOT built on ethnicity. Hence, the Kurdish peoples cannot just aim to resurrect[hmmm..."resurrect"/"never was"-got me there ] an independent nation of theirs..."

Go to your southern border. Look at the flags. Gaze in wonder.

"The Kurdish people should accept living as either an Iraqi, Syrian, Iranian or Turkish citizen and get on with their lives."

I agree. The KRG finally affords Kurds a place to safely live their lives without fear or discrimination. I sincerely hope all Kurds who feel unsafe or discriminated upon will move to the KRG. Those who don't feel so threatened can, of course, remain Syrian, Turkish, or Iranian.

The Kurdish Regional Gov't exists. The Iraqi Constitution recognizes it's existence as a regional entity of state. It functions, to date, remarkably well in it's administration and governance. It is a pillar of stability who's economy is exploding in an otherwise chaotic nation to your south. Under the circumstances within Iraq, that should matter and be BUILT UPON AND ENCOURAGED by neighboring nations.

"If such, is accepted by the International community, this will lead to worldwide devastation!"

Your reaction to such a condition is sufficiently hysterical to assure worldwide devastation, to be sure. However, your fears of an independant Kurdistan haven't been fully realized. Further, so long as Iraq evolves successfully, they won't be. Turkey should do EVERYTHING it can to see this transpire, particularly given the alternative.

Now, the alternative becomes interesting, Khan Han. What would you recommend to the kurdish people should Iraq implode? BTW, just for context and as I mentioned earlier, with each passing day of evolved success within Iraq this seems less likely.

Still, issues of reconciliation within Iraq's parliament will ultimately define that nation's viability or otherwise. Without reconciliation, there is no Iraq. Plain and simple. Under those conditions, the enclaves already taking shape will go their separate ways, it seems.

To whom shall the Kurdish enclave go? What's THEIR alternative but to declare independance? Were I Turkish, I'd ASSIST such an endeavor. It's primacy as a kurdish state neuters any trans-national movement such as the PKK. It's existence offers a place to which Kurds of any nation can migrate if unwilling/unable to tolerate the prevailing rules of the land. It's vulnerability offers leverage and cooperation, not confrontation, to assure it's continuance.

It is no threat to Turkey.

"(3) Trust me Turkey can reverse such “fait accompli”!!"

Perhaps. Perhaps not. In any case, what would that solve for Turkey-an end to the PKK?

Khan_Han · 12-12-2007, 01:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S-2

"(1) The Sovereignty of the Turkish Republic is of utmost importance to the Turkish people. We could not care less about any lost potential trade opportunities with Northern Iraq."

Do you live in southeastern Turkey? What does cross-border trade with a region who's economy is booming have to do with your nat'l sovereignty, particularly if security along such border is established in the absence of a threat by the PKK? What then threatens your nat'l sovereignty such that a trade legation cannot visit Irbil? Your reaction is confoundingly obstinate and makes me wonder just how closely you may have read my comments before turning red with anger.

Well, lets see...we supply Northern Iraq the money, products and services and they supply the PKK, a terrorist organisation trying desperately to undermine Turkish sovereignty.

"(2) There is no such thing as "Kurdistan". There never was and there never will be! Today's Nation State's are NOT built on ethnicity. Hence, the Kurdish peoples cannot just aim to resurrect[hmmm..."resurrect"/"never was"-got me there ] an independent nation of theirs..."

Go to your southern border. Look at the flags. Gaze in wonder.

The terrorist organization, Al Qaeda also has a flag, symbols and occupys territory between the Pakistani and Afghanistan. I suppose you also accept them as a country worthy of recognition!

The Kurds will never have a country of theirs. They have no claim based on International Law or International Customary Law. If they get a country of their own then the African Americans will, the Native Indians will etc etc

"The Kurdish people should accept living as either an Iraqi, Syrian, Iranian or Turkish citizen and get on with their lives."

I agree. The KRG finally affords Kurds a place to safely live their lives without fear or discrimination. I sincerely hope all Kurds who feel unsafe or discriminated upon will move to the KRG. Those who don't feel so threatened can, of course, remain Syrian, Turkish, or Iranian.

What racism are you implying? Turkey has had 3 Presidents of Kurdish Decent, 2 Cheifs of General Staff and dozens of Government Ministers. Can you please show me any signs of racism? The Turkish people and Government differentiate very well between PKK Terrorists and Turks of Kurdish origin. We crush the Terrorists, we open our arms to Turks of Kurdish origin. I myself am partly Kurdish but I will never ever aspire for a Kurdish State!

The Kurdish Regional Gov't exists. The Iraqi Constitution recognizes it's existence as a regional entity of state. It functions, to date, remarkably well in it's administration and governance. It is a pillar of stability who's economy is exploding in an otherwise chaotic nation to your south. Under the circumstances within Iraq, that should matter and be BUILT UPON AND ENCOURAGED by neighboring nations.

Ofcourse, it's economy is exploding, it is getting pumped by Western money! 5 helicopters full of money everyday actually! Let's see what will hapen when this money supply is stoped!

"If such, is accepted by the International community, this will lead to worldwide devastation!"

Your reaction to such a condition is sufficiently hysterical to assure worldwide devastation, to be sure. However, your fears of an independant Kurdistan haven't been fully realized. Further, so long as Iraq evolves successfully, they won't be. Turkey should do EVERYTHING it can to see this transpire, particularly given the alternative.

Now, the alternative becomes interesting, Khan Han. What would you recommend to the kurdish people should Iraq implode? BTW, just for context and as I mentioned earlier, with each passing day of evolved success within Iraq this seems less likely.

Still, issues of reconciliation within Iraq's parliament will ultimately define that nation's viability or otherwise. Without reconciliation, there is no Iraq. Plain and simple. Under those conditions, the enclaves already taking shape will go their separate ways, it seems.

To whom shall the Kurdish enclave go? What's THEIR alternative but to declare independance? Were I Turkish, I'd ASSIST such an endeavor. It's primacy as a kurdish state neuters any trans-national movement such as the PKK. It's existence offers a place to which Kurds of any nation can migrate if unwilling/unable to tolerate the prevailing rules of the land. It's vulnerability offers leverage and cooperation, not confrontation, to assure it's continuance.

It is no threat to Turkey.

Let's see...their aim, the Kurdish Regional Governments aim (or perhaps an aim of a third-party who dictates it from behind) is to secure the Mosul and Kirkuk oil reserves! Two cities which have never been formally been ceded by Turkey to Iraq.

"(3) Trust me Turkey can reverse such “fait accompli”!!"

Perhaps. Perhaps not. In any case, what would that solve for Turkey-an end to the PKK?

In 1918, at the end of World War I, British forces cheated on the Armistice of Mudros by requiring the defeated Ottoman forces to withdraw completely from both the city and the province of Mosul - ensuring that Mosul became a bitter bone of contention. Ataturk's National Pact of 1919, the emotive 'title deed' of modern Turkey, included the province within its boundaries and it was only reluctantly that Turkey accepted the 1925 League of Nations ruling that the province would remain part of Iraq. Deep down, most Turks who know this history still feel cheated.

Some background about Mosul and Kirkuk
It is most unlikely that Turkey will ever seek to regain the province of Mosul except in the case of complete Iraqi meltdown. But the Kurds are justifiably fearful of Turkey, even so. They are also fearful that just as Britain reassured Turkey in 1923 that the Kurds would not be allowed to form a separate political entity, so the US may likewise reassure its NATO ally that no Kurdish state will be allowed on its south-eastern border.

See Turkish Tensions over Mosul and Kirkuk

Thus, if the status quo in Iraq changes and there is the slightest hint that Iraq will be divided, the Turks will exercise the their right under International Treaty and International Customary Law to regain Mosul and Kirkuk. There is also a League of Nations resolution to this effect!

S-2 · 12-12-2007, 02:40 AM

Alright. So the fait accompli that you're actually eager to reverse is...Mosul and Kirkuk, rightfully Turkic, eh? Want them back, do ya?

So much for your pontifications about sovereignty. You're not sweating the PKK. You LIKE them. It's your access ramp to the re-conquest of northern Iraq. That's Iraq, Khan Han. As you said, Kurdistan doesn't exist as a nation-state-yet. Meanwhile, Iraq does.

You're really a piece of work. If you were to represent Turkish authority, with allies like you, who needs enemies?

Khan Han, you represent the perfect embodiment of all that's wrong in your part of the world. Go read your comments again. They're laughable conspiracies. Your ambitions for Kirkuk and Mosul is the only conspiracy that bears any weight.

Meanwhile...really, five helicopters of cash a day? Wow.

Ucar · 12-12-2007, 04:54 AM

Dear Sir S-2

Before you go on to argue and discuss with a Turk in any issue concerning the Turkish government, or anything "Turkish" thereof, here are some tips and guidelines even if we Turks like them or not....

In my perception, the Turkish political system can be summarised as a Preatorian Democracy. The system and the elites need, even require imagined or real threats in order to justify its continued existence. PKK is a reality for our every day lives. How an end, at least a plan to end can not be realized is a taboo in Turkey. It is safe to discuss it in public, read it on newspaper, but it is NOT safe to direct such questions to members of the ruling elite. There is an official reality, and a perceived reality which is immediately distorted by official channels in order not to create a question "Why?" in people's mind. If you are given the answer before you ask the question, you simply do not ask it anymore.

Turkey has suffered succcessive national traumas as a result of coups by successive military generals, and has been very successfully transformed into an apolitical country. Turkey has not faced this reality. The people responsible for such traumas are generally regarded as "great men".

The average Turkish citizen is ignorant of world affairs, heavily doctrinated, and educated well in material sciences and little to none in branches of social sciences. Thus, we have an extremely self-centric notion of reality, where all manner of actions by other countries are perceived as a threat to the existence of the nation, or the sovereignty or the country. For a Turk, national history -what little of it is revealed- ends with Ataturk's death in 1938. We are a nation whose past and identity has been cerefully and purposefully destroyed.

Now we will revert to the discussion at hand.

Successive Turkish governments have repeatedly announced that they would accept only a unitary Iraq. In saying this, nobody imagined that the unitary Iraq would contain a KRG. Turkish rulers imagined that unitary meant what it meant in Turkey.

Naturally, this binds other alternatives in foreign policy and alternative approaches. Now, we can not "openly" move in a friendly manner towards the KRG because it undermines what was said earlier. Therefore, we are forced to revert to backdoor channels with reduced effect. Even if we wanted to establish tangible links with the KRG via Baghdad government, this would create immeasurable problems in domestic politics.

Quote:

To whom shall the Kurdish enclave go? What's THEIR alternative but to declare independance? Were I Turkish, I'd ASSIST such an endeavor. It's primacy as a kurdish state neuters any trans-national movement such as the PKK. It's existence offers a place to which Kurds of any nation can migrate if unwilling/unable to tolerate the prevailing rules of the land. It's vulnerability offers leverage and cooperation, not confrontation, to assure it's continuance.

A possible solution could not have put in any better words than this.

I will not argue on this issue any longer. Having been, worked, fought and bled in SE Turkey, I can only propose that we Turks stop to think for a moment, accept that we made horrible mistakes in our politics and policies, and build a new approach where PKK will be abolished through popular support and cooperation.

Khan_Han · 12-12-2007, 06:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S-2

Alright. So the fait accompli that you're actually eager to reverse is...Mosul and Kirkuk, rightfully Turkic, eh? Want them back, do ya?

So much for your pontifications about sovereignty. You're not sweating the PKK. You LIKE them. It's your access ramp to the re-conquest of northern Iraq. That's Iraq, Khan Han. As you said, Kurdistan doesn't exist as a nation-state-yet. Meanwhile, Iraq does.

You're really a piece of work. If you were to represent Turkish authority, with allies like you, who needs enemies?

Khan Han, you represent the perfect embodiment of all that's wrong in your part of the world. Go read your comments again. They're laughable conspiracies. Your ambitions for Kirkuk and Mosul is the only conspiracy that bears any weight.

Meanwhile...really, five helicopters of cash a day? Wow.

Again, we see that you are trying to distory my words in a bid to slander and degrade myself and the Turkish peoples. What I said above is very clear! If and only when, Iraq is divided into 3, the Turks will not hesitate to intervene and reverse the status quo in favour of it. It would not allow the parititioning of Iraq into Sunni, Shia or Kurdish enclaves.

You try desperately hard not to recognize Turkey's right to certain oil reserves in Mosul and Kirkuk, despite the fact that such reserves were under the sole ownership of His Imperial Majesty, Sultan Abdul Hamid Khan. Turkey for decades has been receiving royalties from BP, Exon Mobil and all the other companies which exploit Iraqi petrol! This is because Iraq recognized the fact that Turkey had a legitimate claim to these reserves through the exiled Sultans estate. Do your research on these reserves and you shall see what I mean. It is only now that the Kurdish leadership wants to renege on these agreements and stop paying the royalties that Turkey started to show its teeth.

All I can say is that at the slightest sign of Iraq being partitioned the Turks will intervene. This will be the begining of WW3! His Excellency, Abdullah Gul President of the Turkish Republic has also stated this recently! He said "our troops have been given the mandate to act if required"...He also said if required the Misak-ı Millî borders will be reviewed!

Misak-ı Millî
Misak-Ä± MillÃ® - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

__________________________________________________ _____________
LEAGUE OF NATIONS DOCUMENTS
QUESTION IRAQ'S CLAIMS AND OWNERSHIP
OF PETROLEUM RESOURCES IN KURDISH AREA
Following the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the area which is now Iraq was under British mandate until 1932 when it became an independent state with its present, but potentially contested, borders. The issue of the Iraq/Turkey border occupied the League of Nations Council for years.

The attached League of Nations documents reflect Turkey's concerted efforts to obtain international recognition for its legal claims to the Mosul Vilayet, northern (Kurdish) Iraq, which the League of Nations Council conditionally attached to Iraq in 1926. The principal document in the annexed collection is Iraq's Declaration of 30 May 1932. The conditional attachment and the declaration illustrate the meticulous efforts made by the League to protect the inhabitants of the contested area in religious, language and property matters. These inhabitants were mostly of non-Arabic origin, Assyrians, Kurds, Turkomans, etc. The 1932 Declaration appears to have fixed the limits of Iraqi sovereignty in that the detailed minority rights thus prescribed [of particular interest to Mr. M. van der Stoel, Special Rapporteur of the Commission on Human Rights] take precedence over subsequent Iraq "laws, regulations or official actions" (art.1) and are even "placed under the guarantee of the League of Nations." (art.10) Moreover, "all rights of whatever nature acquired before the termination of the mandatory regime by individuals, associations or juridical persons shall be respected." (art.14)

In 1945, Iraq joined the United Nations while it was still a member of the League of Nations, i.e., without altering the "obligations of international concern" (art.10) which Iraq incurred as a condition of its independence. The articles mentioned above, some of which have a direct bearing on the question of oil ownership, could not have been unilaterally abrogated by Iraq and consequently, remain fully in force.

Since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Iraq has been repeatedly condemned for grave breaches of international norms. Yet the Security Council has throughout affirmed the commitment of all Member States to the "independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq." (Resolutions 686 and 688). Given the implications of the League of Nations documents, Iraq's "sovereignty and territorial integrity" under international law are conditioned; use of these terms in official UN documents does not convey rights Iraq has not acquired in due course.

With regard to the oil ownership question, these documents provide a prima facie ownership case in favor of some Turkish citizens and Kurdish tribes in whose ancestral lands the largest oil field, in Kirkuk, is situated. Accordingly, the seizure protection wording of Resolution 712, paragraph 5, may not stand in a tribunal. It is thus advisable to execute Resolutions 706 and 712 either exclusively on the basis of oil pumped from uncontested Iraqi fields not in the Mosul Vilayet area or on the basis of corresponding agreements with the Turkish Government and the involved Kurdish tribes.

MOSUL VILAYET DOCUMENTS RE-DISCOVERED (update 22.9.07)

Khan_Han · 12-12-2007, 06:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ucar

Dear Sir S-2

Before you go on to argue and discuss with a Turk in any issue concerning the Turkish government, or anything "Turkish" thereof, here are some tips and guidelines even if we Turks like them or not....

In my perception, the Turkish political system can be summarised as a Preatorian Democracy. The system and the elites need, even require imagined or real threats in order to justify its continued existence. PKK is a reality for our every day lives. How an end, at least a plan to end can not be realized is a taboo in Turkey. It is safe to discuss it in public, read it on newspaper, but it is NOT safe to direct such questions to members of the ruling elite. There is an official reality, and a perceived reality which is immediately distorted by official channels in order not to create a question "Why?" in people's mind. If you are given the answer before you ask the question, you simply do not ask it anymore.

Turkey has suffered succcessive national traumas as a result of coups by successive military generals, and has been very successfully transformed into an apolitical country. Turkey has not faced this reality. The people responsible for such traumas are generally regarded as "great men".

The average Turkish citizen is ignorant of world affairs, heavily doctrinated, and educated well in material sciences and little to none in branches of social sciences. Thus, we have an extremely self-centric notion of reality, where all manner of actions by other countries are perceived as a threat to the existence of the nation, or the sovereignty or the country. For a Turk, national history -what little of it is revealed- ends with Ataturk's death in 1938. We are a nation whose past and identity has been cerefully and purposefully destroyed.

Now we will revert to the discussion at hand.

Successive Turkish governments have repeatedly announced that they would accept only a unitary Iraq. In saying this, nobody imagined that the unitary Iraq would contain a KRG. Turkish rulers imagined that unitary meant what it meant in Turkey.

Naturally, this binds other alternatives in foreign policy and alternative approaches. Now, we can not "openly" move in a friendly manner towards the KRG because it undermines what was said earlier. Therefore, we are forced to revert to backdoor channels with reduced effect. Even if we wanted to establish tangible links with the KRG via Baghdad government, this would create immeasurable problems in domestic politics.

A possible solution could not have put in any better words than this.

I will not argue on this issue any longer. Having been, worked, fought and bled in SE Turkey, I can only propose that we Turks stop to think for a moment, accept that we made horrible mistakes in our politics and policies, and build a new approach where PKK will be abolished through popular support and cooperation.

Sn. Ucar, what are you talking about?? I truly hope you are not part of the Turkish Military establishment as you would be a disgrace! 2 Kurdish Presidents, 2 Kurdish Chiefs of General Staff, Over 30 Kurdish Ministers in the Turkish political scene and you are talking about how Turkey made mistakes and failed. What else do you want Turkey to do?? The Kurds are not a minority in Turkey but a member of the fundamental fabric of Turkish society. It is only afew individuals financed from Europe that is causing all the comotion in Turkey!!

The Kurdish people need not go anywhere! They can live under the current leaderships provided that Democracy prevails. If you have Tribe elders running the show like Talabani and Barzani, then you cannot expect much from such population. The Kurdish people need democracy not land nor a State. They already have the land on which they can prosper on. They should unite with their Arab and Turkomen cousins and aim to improve their living standards in Iraq. They can go nowhere by attacking Turkey in a bid to achieve independence. They have enough autonomy to live in peace and with prosperity. All they have to do is accept the facts.

12-04-2007, 03:33 AM	#2 (permalink)
S-2 *Military Professional* Join Date: 09-11-06 Location: Portland, Oregon Posts: 2,110 Country:	Ray Reply "Cynics may even claim that the recent Turkish attacks on Kurd rebels would have also had tacit approval so as to coax the Kurds [sic] see reason." Heaven forbid! Cynical or otherwise, there's times when recalcitrant souls need to be reminded on which side that their bread is buttered. __________________ "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski

12-04-2007, 18:03 PM	#4 (permalink)
S-2 *Military Professional* Join Date: 09-11-06 Location: Portland, Oregon Posts: 2,110 Country:	TTL Reply "Though in my opinion it is quite true that Kurds don't have any regional allies and won't be able to sustain an independent state without extensive US aid." Well, they're sorta already sustaining the independant state of Iraq and, with our help, they'd be fine on their own. The issue remains the PKK and slowly Kurds are seeing the limitations which come with supporting trans-national kurdish terrorism. They've gained a lot. Kurds could equally lose it in a heartbeat. One nation prevents that and one alone-America. Had America left Iraq one year ago it's reasonable to suggest that Turkish forces would today be patrolling a living hell for all concerned on the streets of kurdish Iraq. Good, bad, or indifferent for Turkey, it would be the end of all Kurdistan has heretofore gained. That's leverage, baby. Nobody, least of all the KRG, needs this headache just now and I've little doubt that we didn't assuage the Turkish gov't's anger right to the brink but no further. Turkey now needs to use this issue as an opportunity to actively promote/engage with the Iraqi and KRG security components in bi/multilateral discussions of mutual concerns. Doing so pro-actively in the name of a mutually identified and agreed concern can open doors to greater cross-border knowledge, trust, and cooperation. This, in turn, builds the credibility of the respective institutions in their oppos eye. It allows you to, in the parlance of Ronald Reagan, "...trust but verify..." by exchanging info and planning joint ops/patrols, etc. You can guage the other's commitment. If I were Turkey, I'd be leaning for much closer ties while relaxing the overt threats. We'll then see if the KRG are more forthcoming with their assistance.

12-05-2007, 05:12 AM	#5 (permalink)
Ucar *Military Professional* Join Date: 06-19-07 Posts: 292 Country:	Addition to S-2's remarks A bit of political insight from Turkey Turkey's official policy both in international and domestic affairs, has been and still is to recognize Iraq as a unitary country. The KRG is by definition is unacceptable to Turkey. This point has been stressed implicitly several times by decision makers, since it would mean the establishment of an authority leading to the way to a Kurdish national state. Therefore, Turkey has preferred to support Kurdish groups in the region against PKK, but has not officially recognized their sovereignty in the region. Thus, Turkey is preferring to hold negotiations with the US and Baghdad government as the representatives of parties to this problem. Therefore, although there is an ongoing organic link between Turkish and KRG security establishments in the region, Turkey prefers to handle its communications and decisions via Baghdad.

12-05-2007, 07:13 AM	#7 (permalink)
Big K HürGeneral *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 12-11-06 Location: Istanbul Posts: 1,046 Country:	Alexander the Great asked Aristo how to dominate people that live on the lands that he conquered? 1- exile persons of prominence? 2- jail them? 3- kill them? answer of Aristo 1- they will regroup and make a revolt against you 2- your prisons will be home of militant and will go out of control 3- next generation will grow with hatred and shake your throne... and heres the Aristo's solution: "saw the seeds of discord, when they fight eachother impose yourself as arbitrator, clog the roads leading to the agreement"... heres the situation in Iraq! __________________ When i say, there will be no effect but i am not willing to remain silent. -Fuzuli

12-05-2007, 07:20 AM	#8 (permalink)
S-2 *Military Professional* Join Date: 09-11-06 Location: Portland, Oregon Posts: 2,110 Country:	Ucar Reply "Turkey's official policy both in international and domestic affairs, has been and still is to recognize Iraq as a unitary country." This, too, is America's policy. Doing anything otherwise is a de facto challenge to Iraq's sovereignty and an explicit encouragement of partition. That said, Ucar, your comments provoke a variety of considerations- "The KRG is by definition is unacceptable to Turkey. This point has been stressed implicitly several times by decision makers, since it would mean the establishment of an authority leading to the way to a Kurdish national state." I believe that this might be an obstinate refusal by Turkey to acknowledge a fait accompli that now exists and would manifest itself rather more prominently as a sovereign state. While partition is increasingly unlikely, it must still be considered in light of Iraq's inability to achieve legislative reconciliation. This PKK-engineered crisis has provoked a delicate balancing act by America's diplomats. To date, I've been pleasantly surprised that we've managed such a nuanced consideration. Too, Turkey's restraint in light of continuous provocation has been commendable. Ucar, here's the issue- should the Peshmerga eliminate the PKK, what then? I believe that America possesses enough leverage with the Kurds, much less the Iraqis, to eventually accomplish this objective. I think doing so is in everybody's interest. That said, it will be in Kurdistan that Turks will seek cross-border economic opportunities. Even something so simple as a Turkish trade legation in Irbil, for instance, will find a Kurdish flag flying near by. Do you not send the trade representatives anyway? Last edited by S-2 : 12-05-2007 at 07:23 AM.

12-04-2007, 05:37 AM	#3 (permalink)
TTL New Member Join Date: 10-20-07 Location: ANKARA Posts: 24 Country:	By the way recent ''Turkish Attacks'' was on PKK not Kurdish Regional Government. Though in my opinion it is quite true that Kurds don't have any regional allies and won't be able to sustain an independent state without extensive US aid.

12-05-2007, 06:37 AM	#6 (permalink)
TTL New Member Join Date: 10-20-07 Location: ANKARA Posts: 24 Country:	What I meant was an independent Kurdish State separated from Iraq. I agree that Turkey should follow a constructive policy towards Iraq, and would like to see a balanced and stable neighbour in Turkey's south so we can trade and cooperate with them on many issues including security. However trans-national Kurdish insurgency is perceived as a threat by Turkey,Iran and Syria. Also shiites and sunnis have problems with the Kurds over the oil income. How can they sustain themselves with enemies on every side. This is why I think their dream to create a separate state will remain only a dream for now.

12-05-2007, 16:26 PM	#10 (permalink)
S-2 *Military Professional* Join Date: 09-11-06 Location: Portland, Oregon Posts: 2,110 Country:	Khan Han Reply "(1) The Sovereignty of the Turkish Republic is of utmost importance to the Turkish people. We could not care less about any lost potential trade opportunities with Northern Iraq." Do you live in southeastern Turkey? What does cross-border trade with a region who's economy is booming have to do with your nat'l sovereignty, particularly if security along such border is established in the absence of a threat by the PKK? What then threatens your nat'l sovereignty such that a trade legation cannot visit Irbil? Your reaction is confoundingly obstinate and makes me wonder just how closely you may have read my comments before turning red with anger. "(2) There is no such thing as "Kurdistan". There never was and there never will be! Today's Nation State's are NOT built on ethnicity. Hence, the Kurdish peoples cannot just aim to resurrect[hmmm..."resurrect"/"never was"-got me there ] an independent nation of theirs..." Go to your southern border. Look at the flags. Gaze in wonder. "The Kurdish people should accept living as either an Iraqi, Syrian, Iranian or Turkish citizen and get on with their lives." I agree. The KRG finally affords Kurds a place to safely live their lives without fear or discrimination. I sincerely hope all Kurds who feel unsafe or discriminated upon will move to the KRG. Those who don't feel so threatened can, of course, remain Syrian, Turkish, or Iranian. The Kurdish Regional Gov't exists. The Iraqi Constitution recognizes it's existence as a regional entity of state. It functions, to date, remarkably well in it's administration and governance. It is a pillar of stability who's economy is exploding in an otherwise chaotic nation to your south. Under the circumstances within Iraq, that should matter and be BUILT UPON AND ENCOURAGED by neighboring nations. "If such, is accepted by the International community, this will lead to worldwide devastation!" Your reaction to such a condition is sufficiently hysterical to assure worldwide devastation, to be sure. However, your fears of an independant Kurdistan haven't been fully realized. Further, so long as Iraq evolves successfully, they won't be. Turkey should do EVERYTHING it can to see this transpire, particularly given the alternative. Now, the alternative becomes interesting, Khan Han. What would you recommend to the kurdish people should Iraq implode? BTW, just for context and as I mentioned earlier, with each passing day of evolved success within Iraq this seems less likely. Still, issues of reconciliation within Iraq's parliament will ultimately define that nation's viability or otherwise. Without reconciliation, there is no Iraq. Plain and simple. Under those conditions, the enclaves already taking shape will go their separate ways, it seems. To whom shall the Kurdish enclave go? What's THEIR alternative but to declare independance? Were I Turkish, I'd ASSIST such an endeavor. It's primacy as a kurdish state neuters any trans-national movement such as the PKK. It's existence offers a place to which Kurds of any nation can migrate if unwilling/unable to tolerate the prevailing rules of the land. It's vulnerability offers leverage and cooperation, not confrontation, to assure it's continuance. It is no threat to Turkey. "(3) Trust me Turkey can reverse such “fait accompli”!!" Perhaps. Perhaps not. In any case, what would that solve for Turkey-an end to the PKK?

12-12-2007, 02:40 AM	#12 (permalink)
S-2 *Military Professional* Join Date: 09-11-06 Location: Portland, Oregon Posts: 2,110 Country:	Reversing Fait Accomplis-Khan Han Reply Alright. So the fait accompli that you're actually eager to reverse is...Mosul and Kirkuk, rightfully Turkic, eh? Want them back, do ya? So much for your pontifications about sovereignty. You're not sweating the PKK. You LIKE them. It's your access ramp to the re-conquest of northern Iraq. That's Iraq, Khan Han. As you said, Kurdistan doesn't exist as a nation-state-yet. Meanwhile, Iraq does. You're really a piece of work. If you were to represent Turkish authority, with allies like you, who needs enemies? Khan Han, you represent the perfect embodiment of all that's wrong in your part of the world. Go read your comments again. They're laughable conspiracies. Your ambitions for Kirkuk and Mosul is the only conspiracy that bears any weight. Meanwhile...really, five helicopters of cash a day? Wow.