S-2

If Ahmed Chalabi is to be trusted in his official capacity leading the Supreme National Commission for de-Baathification, his interview with Sistani in Najef left little room for the approval of the proposed legislation to re-integrate former baath members into Iraqi society. Ain't happenin'. Sistani has evidently assured Chalabi that the votes won't be there in parliament if the legislation clears the cabinet.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/worl...ld&oref=slogin

This makes our work immeasurably harder and is hardly in the spirit of reconciliation that is both necessary for Iraq to succeed as a nation and for America to continue supporting Iraq. Especially now.

I am slightly surprised by the assertiveness that we've seen lately from shia elements in Iraq. The re-emergence of Sadr and these comments attributed to Sistani, whose public utterances are minimal, seem aimed at reminding al-Maliki to whom he's beholden. If successful, we can forget any tangible progress in our last effort to secure Iraq and best tuck our tails between our legs and go home. We won't have any credibility with the sunni states facing a looming threat on the horizon from Iran.

Unless we go to the source while we can...

Shek

This is an ominous sign. I'm curious what the details of Sistani's objections were. Hopefully, there is more to follow.

__________________
"So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

Bluesman

Grim. It undoes a lot of the work of the past year.

__________________
"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
- George Orwell

astralis

i'm surprised chalabi even got air-time with sistani.

in any case, sistani is no doubt feeling pressure from the shia community, especially as the upstart sadr, with his proclivities towards violence, gains popularity.

look what happened when sadr fled, and told his militia members to stand down for the surge. a bunch of sunni bombings. not being able to strike back has to really gall the shias.

the sad thing is, up till now sistani has been quite the voice of moderation compared to the yahoos we've seen both in terms of religious and political leaders in iraq...

__________________
Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.

-Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

Bluesman

I wonder if we've been reading him wrong all along. After all, his title is 'Ayatollah', and this sure fits Tehran's Big Plan. The timing sure is suspect, too.

Maybe he's not as independent of Iranian influence as we thought.

Shek

He is from the quietest school of thought, which is a far cry from the Iranian theocracy. I'd like to see the details, as the one liner quote is less than clear. Was it a flatout rejection of any rollback, or just a rejection of the plan as is?

S-2

According to the article, about 1.5 mil out of 27 mil Iraqis were Baath party members. What, about 5.5% of the population? Almost certainly sunni and male. Within the sunni community, it's leading elements are effectively neutered forever from access to the political and governmental processes of Iraq. When you evaluate the impact upon 1.5 mil adult males out of a population segment of approx. 9.2 mil Iraqi sunnis, it's staggering. Defeating this legislation virtually guarantees perpetual exclusion for the adult sunni population.

Certainly fits the biblical tinge ascribed to Mesopotamia of an "eye for an eye". Still, it equally guarantees a festering and indefinite sunni insurgency sponsored from without. Perversely, this may actually work to America's benefit. I suspect that, in our absence, the al-Quds, Pasdaran, IRGC, etc., in conjunction with the state security apparatus of Iraq would find the suppression of a well-funded Iraqi sunni insurgency a MASSIVE headache.

Let it become their tar-baby, as it certainly will.

I can easily imagine Iranian ambitions and appetite over-reaching itself.

Ray

I dislike Chhalabi.

He is the cause of the Iraq War going sour. He fed coloured and false information.

Incredulous is the fact that he was once dubbed the "George Washington of Iraq" by American neoconservatives.

Chalabi failed to win a seat in parliament in the December 2005 elections.

His INC's failed to win a single seat in Parliament.

I think he is a Sunni and so how come he is cozying up to the Shias? He is a charlatan of questionable allegiance. I believe he also sold the US to the Iranians since he fell foul of the US!

__________________


"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

HAKUNA MATATA

S-2

Brigadier,

Chalabi is shia. His entree with Sistani was in, seemingly, an official capacity as the director/commissioner of the Supreme National Commission for De-Baathification seeking support for the proposed legislation.

"He is a charlatan of questionable allegiance."

To the Iranians, his allegiance appears secure, don't you think?

Ray

Thanks for the information about Chalabi being a Shia. I was not too sure.

I confess that I never quite liked him since he is the one who tricked all into Iraq.

What is the opinion on the Kurdistan question? I thought you would comment on the thread about Turkish reaction. Turkey, it appears, is not amused!

S-2

Brigadier,

"I thought you would comment on the thread about Turkish reaction."

Sir, my apologies. I've been off the net for a couple of months and am only now getting back into the swing. I owe SWIFTSWORD a reply to an excellent post of his from TWO MONTHS AGO so, clearly, I'm a bit behind. Hah! Not that I'll ever catch up, given the prodigious outputs of the likes of Shek and yourself. Still, I'll try, as this place can be sooo much fun.

I did just finish reading both articles and will post my comments soon. Increasingly, these flares suggest the cynical intractability of issues in this region. The notion of "no peace, no war" seems an apt condition for people who appear hell-bent to embrace vendetta at the expense of progress.

A major bummer, sir.

Shek

Philadelphia Inquirer
April 7, 2007

Iraq Orders Pensions Paid To Hussein Officers

By Bassem Mroue, Associated Press

BAGHDAD - Iraq's prime minister yesterday ordered pension payments for senior officers of Saddam Hussein's military and offered a return to service for lower-ranking soldiers, a major step aimed at defusing the Sunni insurgency and meeting U.S. benchmarks for his government.

The decision was made during a cabinet meeting late last month, according to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's office. It was not clear why the information was released only yesterday.

Many former top intelligence, security and military officials are believed to have joined the Sunni insurgency after former U.S. administrator L. Paul Bremer disbanded Iraq's 350,000-member military in 2003, a month after Hussein's regime was ousted.

The Maliki statement said any former officer above the rank of major would be given a pension equal to that of officers now retiring. Former officers above major who wanted to rejoin the army were encouraged to check with the military command to learn if they were acceptable in the Iraqi army that is being rebuilt by U.S. forces.

Those who had the rank of major or lower may voluntarily return to the army.

Lower-ranking officers and enlisted men with scientific or medical training would be given jobs in an appropriate government ministry, the statement said.

Maliki, who is the supreme commander of the armed forces, issued a 24-point reconciliation plan shortly after taking power last year. It was seen then as a positive bid to draw disaffected Sunnis into the political fold. It was never implemented.

There has been heavy opposition to the move among Shiite and Kurdish officials whose people were oppressed by Hussein.

Maliki and President Jalal Talabani were expected to introduce legislation in parliament last week that would allow former members of Hussein's Baath Party - including those in the feared security and paramilitary forces - to regain government jobs.

The Bush administration has set out several benchmarks for Maliki's government. One is passage of the de-Baathification law to encourage Sunnis to rejoin the political process.

The draft measure sponsored by Maliki and Talabani would set a three-month challenge period after which ex-Baath Party loyalists would be immune from legal punishment for their actions during Hussein's rule.

The bill, which excludes former regime members already charged with or sought for crimes, also would grant state pensions to many Baathists even if they were denied posts in the government or military.