Victory Has A Thousand Fathers

**troung** · 25 Jan 11,, 20:42

It was more of a political "cover-your-ass" move by the Soviets to sell the retreat to the public back home - didn't work. Between der Papst, Poland, a failing economy, and Afghanistan, the Soviets fell.

I see on their end, but I would love to read the case from those Americans that Soviets won in Afghanistan when they left tail between legs and the Afghan Communists controlled only the cities. We could leave tomorrow I guess and win then.

**Red Seven** · 28 Jan 11,, 14:24

Originally Posted by S-2

"Should I be disappointed with RAND?"

I'm unsure. The unabridged version is far more detailed. My point is whether the study is solidly-grounded. If so, then there's utility.

"The single most important COIN strategy is to cut the insurgents off from tangible support? Mao 101: the people are the sea in which the guerrilla fighter swims."

Which sea? The loci of the insurgency or the sanctuary. Often two different nations contributing to one key element, tangible support, which comes in many different forms.

Many of our Pakistani friends here argue that the afghan insurgency is entirely indigenous and is fueled solely by home-based support and arms and supplies acquired via donations, drug sales and theft. Many Americans suggest differently and place great emphasis on external sanctuary.

Then let's consider home-based support for a moment. How is it acquired? Is it by opposition against the host government? Is it by sympathy for the insurgent forces? Is it by intimidation exercised by the insurgent forces? Is it by services provided by the insurgent forces? Is it some combination of all?

Good points. I take the word "support" for an insurgency to include all of the above, although admittedly the Mao quote no longer adequately covers all ground.

**Deadtroopers** · 03 Apr 11,, 01:07

"By contrast, a team of U.S. military officers, most of whom have combat experience of their own in Afghanistan, concluded in their own study that the Soviet campaign was a success -- the Soviets withdrew their forces on terms of their choosing and left a friendly government behind"

Let me guess, these would be the sons and daughters of those US military officers who believe they were not defeated in Vietnam, citing much the same reasoning?

Unless and until the campaign can be prosecuted in what is now Pakistan it is lost. Strike another blow for the F.O. 's map drawing. The Paks should be persuaded to export the problem back to Kabul. Return the Durand Line territories (NW Frontier, Swat etc).
Then the insurgents can be put down in their rear areas.

If that can't be done withdraw our forces on terms of our choosing and leaving a friendly government behind :-)!!! (This has been British policy since 1839. Why change a winning formula.)

**Red Seven** · 19 Apr 11,, 14:21

Originally Posted by Deadtroopers

Unless and until the campaign can be prosecuted in what is now Pakistan it is lost.

I've been saying that since Tora Bora. If it had been vigorously prosecuted across the border then we might not be there now. If we had managed to kill UBL during or after his withdrawal into Pakistan, I wonder if we'd be sitting here today contemplating COIN, FID, nation-building or exit strategies for OEF.