The Shia Revival

**Shek** · 05-02-2007, 13:49 PM

A synopsis of Nasr's book, Amazon.com: The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future: Books: Vali Nasr, in this month's Military Review.

Quote:

http://usacac.army.mil/CAC/milreview...Jun07/nasr.pdf

The most significant development in the Middle East today is the rise of sectarian conflict. This is a process that has begun in Iraq, but it will not end there. In Iraq it has become the single most important determinant of that country’s future. However, it has already spread beyond Iraq, threatening stability in Lebanon as it shapes regional alignments and theregional balance of power.

The rise of sectarianism is an outcome of the Shia revival that followed the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. The war broke down the sunni minority regime that had ruled that country for decades and empowered Shias, producing the first Arab Shia government in history and setting in motion a region-wide Shia revival. What began in Iraq quickly translated into a regional political dynamic as Shias everywhere looked to Iraq with hope for positive changes in their own countries.

In the wake of regime change in Iraq, the Shia have made their mark on regional politics. From Lebanon to the Persian Gulf, through peaceful elections and bloody conflicts, the Shia are making their presence felt. Shia
politics were initially supportive of developments in Iraq. Senior Iraqi Shia leaders endorsed the political system the United States introduced to Iraq. Iraqi elections also received support from Iranian and Lebanese Shia religious
leaders. Following the elections, Shias joined the American-backed government in Baghdad, and Shias joined the new Iraqi security forces in droves. Post-Saddam Iraq presented an opportunity for creating stable relations between the United States and Iraqi Shias and, by extension, with the Shia populations across the region.

***

What Iran sowed in Lebanon, it expects to reap in Iraq. Washington is debating the merits of talking to Iiran about at a time when Tehran has hinted that it holds most of the cards, suggesting that if the United States wants to deal with Iran—not only over Iraq but also over Lebanon, the Palestinian issue, or Afghanistan—it has to accept Tehran’s terms for such an engagement. It was with a view to reverse this attitude that Washington escalated pressure on Iran in the first months of 2007, hoping to convince Tehran that there are limits to its influence and that it would likely face a high cost if it were to overreach.

The United States faces an increasingly fractious Middle East in the grip of old and new conflicts, each with its own issues and tempo, but all connected to the broader Shia revival and the Sunni reaction to it apparent in the sectarian conflict in Iraq. To get the Middle East right, Washington must understand this new force and how it is shaping the region. Only then will it be able to appropriately manage the multiple conflicts that are unfolding in the region, the alignments that they will produce, and the impact that they will have on U.S. interests.

Ray · 05-02-2007, 14:11 PM

As I have said on this forum many a time that Shias are on the ascendancy.

It has if pluses and minuses.

Plus is that the Sunnis, who are the majority, and are the backbone of the terror being perpetuated against the world, are being shown their place by the Shias, who are the minority and like it or not, less aggressive of the two. My experience is that because they are the minority, they are more amenable to see reason that the Sunnis.

Let the Shias and Sunnis, if they want, battle it out, even they cannot see the mediium of rational dialogue. Let the best man win in the Islamic supremacy struggle.

The Shias have been on the wrong end of the stick in Islamic history. They should be encourage to find their place in the sun. This encouragement will find positive response. In fact, in Iraq, allowing the Shias to find their rightful place is doing well in calming the Shias of Iran wherein the people are not too delighted with Ahmedinejad's wild ways.

While it may appear that the US is bumbling around in Iraq, it may not be so the case. In fact, the US is possibly on the right path to ensure that the balance of power in the ME is evening out and is not lopsided enough to blackmail the world as has been the case so far!

Kartajan · 05-03-2007, 09:49 AM

Hazaras, Qizilbashis, some Tajiks and a few Pathans are also Shias... how will their star rise in Afghanistan? Hazaras especially were on the recieving end of some of Taliban's worst brutalities, and if memory serves me right they weren't that well treated under other commanders either. Will the Coalition forces behind the NA government accept them as reliable allies? Or stigmatize them for fear of offending more powerful allies?

PS: I know Qizilbashis are an almost insignificant group now, but I just love typing "Q" words without "u" after them

aktarian · 05-08-2007, 05:12 AM

Quote:

The war broke down the sunni minority regime that had ruled that country for decades and empowered Shias, producing the first Arab Shia government in history and setting in motion a region-wide Shia revival.

I'm sorry but that's not true. Fatimids in Egypt in 10th-12th century were Arab shi'ias and ruling Egypt and parts of Middle east.

Alawites are, depending on your definition of shi'ias, shi'ias, arab and ruling Syria.

Ray · 05-08-2007, 14:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aktarian

I'm sorry but that's not true. Fatimids in Egypt in 10th-12th century were Arab shi'ias and ruling Egypt and parts of Middle east.

Alawites are, depending on your definition of shi'ias, shi'ias, arab and ruling Syria.

How did they vanish?

aktarian · 05-09-2007, 03:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray

How did they vanish?

Fatimids didn't vanish, they went the way of many ruling dynasties. Infighting that weakened them which enabled some group (in this case army) to take effective control and ultimately depose them. Then Egypt went sunni again.

Alawis are still around and ruling Syria (Assads are Alawis).

05-02-2007, 14:11 PM	#2 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,149 Country:	As I have said on this forum many a time that Shias are on the ascendancy. It has if pluses and minuses. Plus is that the Sunnis, who are the majority, and are the backbone of the terror being perpetuated against the world, are being shown their place by the Shias, who are the minority and like it or not, less aggressive of the two. My experience is that because they are the minority, they are more amenable to see reason that the Sunnis. Let the Shias and Sunnis, if they want, battle it out, even they cannot see the mediium of rational dialogue. Let the best man win in the Islamic supremacy struggle. The Shias have been on the wrong end of the stick in Islamic history. They should be encourage to find their place in the sun. This encouragement will find positive response. In fact, in Iraq, allowing the Shias to find their rightful place is doing well in calming the Shias of Iran wherein the people are not too delighted with Ahmedinejad's wild ways. While it may appear that the US is bumbling around in Iraq, it may not be so the case. In fact, the US is possibly on the right path to ensure that the balance of power in the ME is evening out and is not lopsided enough to blackmail the world as has been the case so far! __________________ "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination." I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to. HAKUNA MATATA Last edited by Ray : 05-02-2007 at 14:15 PM.

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05-03-2007, 09:49 AM	#3 (permalink)
Kartajan Regular Join Date: 03-14-07 Posts: 46	Hazaras, Qizilbashis, some Tajiks and a few Pathans are also Shias... how will their star rise in Afghanistan? Hazaras especially were on the recieving end of some of Taliban's worst brutalities, and if memory serves me right they weren't that well treated under other commanders either. Will the Coalition forces behind the NA government accept them as reliable allies? Or stigmatize them for fear of offending more powerful allies? PS: I know Qizilbashis are an almost insignificant group now, but I just love typing "Q" words without "u" after them

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