Future of Democracy in Iran

**Shek** · 02-13-2007, 14:04 PM

Here's a piece that is nearly two years old, and so it obviously doesn't take into account some of the events since then. However, I find the argument that Milani advances appealing on many fronts.

Here are his proposed policy prescriptions:

Quote:

1. First, the United States should end the embargo and replace it with smart sanctions on the regime, its foundations, and its leaders.

2. Second, the United States must declare in words and show in deeds that, in spite of any changes in its economic or diplomatic ties with the Iranian regime, it is always on the side of the Iranian people and their democratic efforts.

3. Third, as a necessary consequence of the above principles, the United States should also declare that it will not provide cash assistance to any Iranian media outlet or opposition group inside or outside of Iran. At the same
time, it should offer technological support to all democratic forces who want to broadcast to the Iranian people, insisting on transparency in all such aid and assistance. This will dissuade corrupt and opportunist elements from
banking on dangled U.S. dollars and will also free genuine democratic forces from the taunts and taints of a regime that labels all of its opponents as U.S. lackeys.

4. Fourth, a concomitant part of this plan can and indeed must be a commitment to a transparently funded, independent, and autonomous radio and The U.S. and the EU do not share the same interests and goals toward Iran. television program broadcast to Iran, dedicated to the cause of democracy and human rights and universally accessible.

5. Fifth, current U.S. laws have placed draconian limits on the ability of Iranian artists, intellectuals, and activists—for a time even Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi—to gainfully publish their works in the United States. Not only must these laws be immediately rescinded, but the United States must then help enable democratic activists in Iran to publish their works in English as well as the translation of great works on democracy into Persian.

6. Sixth, the United States should make goodwill gestures to the Iranian people that will further disarm the regime’s propaganda about the U.S. “crusade” against Islam in Iran and throughout the rest of the Muslim world. Public diplomacy can be better accomplished with deeds rather than mere words. Just as humanitarian aid in the aftermath of the tsunami seems to have improved the U.S. image in Indonesia, so too in Iran will simple, cost efficient, humanitarian gestures go a long way toward neutralizing the venom of Islamist propaganda jihad.

7. Seventh, the United States must use its influence in international organizations to bring pressure on the regime when it clearly abuses the human and democratic rights of the Iranian people. Unfortunately, the EU’s silence in the face of last February’s parliamentary coup by the conservatives is likely to embolden them in the upcoming elections. The regime understands power well, and it must be made aware that the Iranian people are not alone in their fight, that international organizations are ready to come to their aid.

So, what are your thoughts on his policy prescriptions, and as a second path of discussion, what are the means through which we can best reach a receptive Iranian audience. His article mention books and radio - is there a generational gap in our ideas here - what about blogs, podcasts, etc.? Do we need to operationalize the propagation of ideas at the 20 something level in terms of age so that we don't use mediums that are "so yesterday"?

zraver · 02-13-2007, 20:48 PM

The proposal only has one major flaw. Unfortunately this flaw is so severe that it dooms the idea from its very inception. Namely you cannot expect the US Federal Goverment to excise common sense in any case, let alone an issue as important as Iran.

xerxes · 02-14-2007, 22:40 PM

Shek, I see this as the following:

Quote:

Originally Posted by shek

1. First, the United States should end the embargo and replace it with smart sanctions on the regime, its foundations, and its leaders.

That is quite unlikely to be effective ... an ideal sanstions directed at the regime and its foundations is even less effective than an ideal smart-bomb designed to score 200% ... frankly, If i were an American and I want to end Iran's regime: there are effective ways to go: 1) full-scale invasion and total war, while holding nothing back, ... or a severe heavy sanctions against Iran directed at everything and all avenues ... which most likely will endup in war

Quote:

Originally Posted by shek

2. Second, the United States must declare in words and show in deeds that, in spite of any changes in its economic or diplomatic ties with the Iranian regime, it is always on the side of the Iranian people and their democratic efforts.

No one really believes that US is really after a freedom agenda ... look at Colonel Gaddafi regime, he gaveup his WMD ambitions and was simply granted a blank check for survival by the States ... frankly the current regime in Iran can easilly become a US client-state by simply doing US bidding and US couldnt careless about democratic-process/freedom and all those cute words

Quote:

Originally Posted by shek

3. Third, as a necessary consequence of the above principles, the United States should also declare that it will not provide cash assistance to any Iranian media outlet or opposition group inside or outside of Iran. At the same
time, it should offer technological support to all democratic forces who want to broadcast to the Iranian people, insisting on transparency in all such aid and assistance. This will dissuade corrupt and opportunist elements from
banking on dangled U.S. dollars and will also free genuine democratic forces from the taunts and taints of a regime that labels all of its opponents as U.S. lackeys.4. Fourth, a concomitant part of this plan can and indeed must be a commitment to a transparently funded, independent, and autonomous radio and The U.S. and the EU do not share the same interests and goals toward Iran. television program broadcast to Iran, dedicated to the cause of democracy and human rights and universally accessible.

It looks really good in writing .. but in practice corruption, favors and betrayals are the rules of the game....

Quote:

Originally Posted by shek

5. Fifth, current U.S. laws have placed draconian limits on the ability of Iranian artists, intellectuals, and activists—for a time even Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi—to gainfully publish their works in the United States. Not only must these laws be immediately rescinded, but the United States must then help enable democratic activists in Iran to publish their works in English as well as the translation of great works on democracy into Persian.

that would be a ncie gesture ....

Quote:

Originally Posted by shek

6. Sixth, the United States should make goodwill gestures to the Iranian people that will further disarm the regime’s propaganda about the U.S. “crusade” against Islam in Iran and throughout the rest of the Muslim world. Public diplomacy can be better accomplished with deeds rather than mere words. Just as humanitarian aid in the aftermath of the tsunami seems to have improved the U.S. image in Indonesia, so too in Iran will simple, cost efficient, humanitarian gestures go a long way toward neutralizing the venom of Islamist propaganda jihad.

i dont agree with that because Iran's propoganda machine is wisely feeding on the nationalism issue which has more meat than the Islamic issue .... IMHO

Quote:

Originally Posted by shek

7. Seventh, the United States must use its influence in international organizations to bring pressure on the regime when it clearly abuses the human and democratic rights of the Iranian people. Unfortunately, the EU’s silence in the face of last February’s parliamentary coup by the conservatives is likely to embolden them in the upcoming elections. The regime understands power well, and it must be made aware that the Iranian people are not alone in their fight, that international organizations are ready to come to their aid.

this one is hard to answer .... i have to do some thinking ... the problem with this list is that it is too ideal and less practical IMHO. But I will say that human abuse in Iran today is much less worse than in Afghanistan, Saddam's Iraq or today's Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, ... and as far as democratic rights of the Iranian people, eventhough it not very powerfull, it is the next best thing next to Israel and Turkey, and I might add it is something that was simply non existant during the Pahlavi rule.

**Ironduke** · 02-22-2007, 03:27 AM

Orange/Rose/Cedar revolution for Iran?

I think a softer approach may be more successful... threats are likely to alienate the Iranian people. The Ayatollahs may not be able to overthrown overnight, and an effective change has to be triggered from within.

Bigfella · 02-22-2007, 04:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ironduke

Orange/Rose/Cedar revolution for Iran?

I think a softer approach may be more successful... threats are likely to alienate the Iranian people. The Ayatollahs may not be able to overthrown overnight, but an effective change has to be triggered from within.

Common ground here ID. I think the article provides a very intelligent set of options for future US Administrations. I use the plural deliberately, because it might take more than one. Unfortunately Zraver may have a point:

"The proposal only has one major flaw. Unfortunately this flaw is so severe that it dooms the idea from its very inception. Namely you cannot expect the US Federal Goverment to excise common sense in any case, let alone an issue as important as Iran." - zraver

America has occasionally shown the ability to use relative subtlety to affect regime change. The fate of Milosovic in Yugoslavia provided an excellent example.

When force was used it was not used in an attempt to remove him, but to protect others from him. As much if not more important were the sanctions. In the short term both helped Milosovic consolidate his power, but in the longer term they stood as examples of the damage & shame he had brought to the nation. In the end it was Yugoslavs themselves who removed him - a vastly better option than any invasion could bring.

Obviously Iran has significant differences, but some important similarities too. One of the most important is that wghile Iran is a dictatorship, it is far from totalitarian. People do get to express opinions in the press & at the ballot box, though the possibility of change is still limited. There is a thrving civil society in Iran which has little time for the mullahs. The trick is not to forget that these people are also proud Iranians. Remember that the last serious attack on Iran (by our good friend Saddam) cemented the power of the Ayatollahs.

The measures outlined in the article will help those elements of Iranian society keen for change without coming off as heavy-handed US interference. This may not be the fastest course to a democratic Iran, but in the long run change from within will be far more effective than change from without.

Swift Sword · 02-22-2007, 08:49 AM

Milani has some good ideas but I would go a little bit further.

Opening up trade a bit might have some very positive effects.

Even though it would help the Ayatollahs a bit in the short run with their cash flow problems there are several upsides:

1. Historically: in South America, in the wake of trade agreements and economic liberalization, hard line regimes renounced nuclear weapons ambitions and eventually melted away to varying degrees;

2. again, historically: influxes of wealth have a tendency to create new kinds of elites who, given time will demand social and political stature to match their fancier cars, homes and fine clothes and thus create a competing political bloc;

3. hopefully: an advancement of the material condition of the Iranian "Joe Six Pack" would make him more resistant to any regime or party's scheme to rollback said advances at a future date.

4. practically: an increase in cash flow is required if Iran is not going to become a failed state within a decade and I have a sneaky suspicion that a partially subsidized theocracy is preferential to a failed state in Iran;

5. pragmatically: regardless of what the future government of Iran looks like or what pattern it follows be it a democracy (prefferably) or something else, it serves U.S. and allied interests to have the Iranians and their trade aligned with the "West" rather than Russia and China.

I am not saying that we should give the current regime the keys to the store, rather that when you throw a dog a bone, even one that is strange and comes across as hostile, often times they might sit, roll over or wag their tail just the same.

xerxes · 02-24-2007, 02:53 AM

this is a BBC documentry on Iran .. i have already posted this link on another thread ... so this just incase

Rageh Inside Iran - Google Video

xerxes · 03-04-2007, 04:41 AM

This is a short video - a few minutes - that present images of the Iran-iraq war along with a nice soundtrack. I guess it has its propoganda value, but it is one of those video that only an Iranian would probably understand it. It has images from the revolution/war and the sacrifice that people made for the it and the price they paid. Enjoy!

YouTube - The Holy Defence

02-22-2007, 03:27 AM	#4 (permalink)
Ironduke Burgomaster Join Date: 08-02-03 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 6,784 Country:	Orange/Rose/Cedar revolution for Iran? I think a softer approach may be more successful... threats are likely to alienate the Iranian people. The Ayatollahs may not be able to overthrown overnight, and an effective change has to be triggered from within. __________________ The Buck Stops Here

02-22-2007, 08:49 AM	#6 (permalink)
Swift Sword *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 10-23-05 Location: Carl Perkins' Cadillac Posts: 764	Milani has some good ideas but I would go a little bit further. Opening up trade a bit might have some very positive effects. Even though it would help the Ayatollahs a bit in the short run with their cash flow problems there are several upsides: 1. Historically: in South America, in the wake of trade agreements and economic liberalization, hard line regimes renounced nuclear weapons ambitions and eventually melted away to varying degrees; 2. again, historically: influxes of wealth have a tendency to create new kinds of elites who, given time will demand social and political stature to match their fancier cars, homes and fine clothes and thus create a competing political bloc; 3. hopefully: an advancement of the material condition of the Iranian "Joe Six Pack" would make him more resistant to any regime or party's scheme to rollback said advances at a future date. 4. practically: an increase in cash flow is required if Iran is not going to become a failed state within a decade and I have a sneaky suspicion that a partially subsidized theocracy is preferential to a failed state in Iran; 5. pragmatically: regardless of what the future government of Iran looks like or what pattern it follows be it a democracy (prefferably) or something else, it serves U.S. and allied interests to have the Iranians and their trade aligned with the "West" rather than Russia and China. I am not saying that we should give the current regime the keys to the store, rather that when you throw a dog a bone, even one that is strange and comes across as hostile, often times they might sit, roll over or wag their tail just the same. __________________ Pharoh was pimp but now he is dead. What are you going to do today?

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02-13-2007, 20:48 PM	#2 (permalink)
zraver Contrary by nature. *Military Professional* Join Date: 10-22-06 Location: Arkansas Posts: 2,502 Country:	The proposal only has one major flaw. Unfortunately this flaw is so severe that it dooms the idea from its very inception. Namely you cannot expect the US Federal Goverment to excise common sense in any case, let alone an issue as important as Iran.

02-24-2007, 02:53 AM	#7 (permalink)
xerxes Padishah Shahanshah *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 01-23-07 Location: Canada Posts: 949 Country:	this is a BBC documentry on Iran .. i have already posted this link on another thread ... so this just incase Rageh Inside Iran - Google Video

03-04-2007, 04:41 AM	#8 (permalink)
xerxes Padishah Shahanshah *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 01-23-07 Location: Canada Posts: 949 Country:	This is a short video - a few minutes - that present images of the Iran-iraq war along with a nice soundtrack. I guess it has its propoganda value, but it is one of those video that only an Iranian would probably understand it. It has images from the revolution/war and the sacrifice that people made for the it and the price they paid. Enjoy! YouTube - The Holy Defence

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