Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War

**Shek** · 01-25-2007, 12:26 PM

I came across this paper today, and its empirical results argue that ethnicity or religion are not the primary determinants of causing insurgency and civil war. What is also interesting is that they dispute that the end of the Cold War created a rash of intrastate conflicts without the bipolar structure it emanated.

Quote:

ABSTRACT
An influential conventional wisdom holds that civil wars proliferated rapidly with the end of the Cold War and that the root cause of many or most of these has been ethnic nationalism. We show that the current prevalence of internal war is mainly the result of a steady accumulation of protracted conflicts since the 50s and 60s rather than a sudden change associated with a new, post-Cold War international system. We also find that after controlling for per capita income, more ethnically or religiously diverse countries have been no more likely to experience significant civil violence in this period. We argue for understanding civil war in this period in terms of insurgency or rural guerrilla warfare, a particular form of military practice that can be harnessed to diverse political agendas, including but not limited to ethnic nationalism. The factors that explain which countries have been at risk for civil war are not their ethnic or religious characteristics but rather the conditions that favor insurgency. These include poverty, which marks financially and bureaucratically weak states and also favors rebel recruitment, political instability, rough terrain, and large populations.

¤James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin are Professors of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305-6044.

**astralis** · 01-25-2007, 14:33 PM

shek,

IIRC i mentioned this paper in a thread a few months ago. it is an excellent paper and great food for thought, especially in light of what's happened in iraq. zakaria and other political scientists have since built upon the findings of this paper to argue that good governance trumps democracy in immediate importance, as the latter will arise more naturally from the former than the other way around.

**Shek** · 02-28-2007, 22:26 PM

Here's Fearon's article that was just published in Foreign Affairs.

Quote:

Foreign Affairs - Iraq's Civil War - James D. Fearon

Summary: The White House still avoids the label, but by any reasonable historical standard, the Iraqi civil war has begun. The record of past such wars suggests that Washington cannot stop this one -- and that Iraqis will be able to reach a power-sharing deal only after much more fighting, if then. The United States can help bring about a settlement eventually by balancing Iraqi factions from afar, but there is little it can do to avert bloodshed now.

James D. Fearon is Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences and Professor of Political Science at Stanford University.

Ray · 03-01-2007, 01:06 AM

Interesting articles.

Will read in detail.

Thanks for posting them.

01-25-2007, 14:33 PM	#2 (permalink)
astralis *Foreign Service* Moderator Lei Feng Protege Join Date: 08-23-05 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 2,944 Country:	shek, IIRC i mentioned this paper in a thread a few months ago. it is an excellent paper and great food for thought, especially in light of what's happened in iraq. zakaria and other political scientists have since built upon the findings of this paper to argue that good governance trumps democracy in immediate importance, as the latter will arise more naturally from the former than the other way around. __________________ Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present. -Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

03-01-2007, 01:06 AM	#4 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,144 Country:	Interesting articles. Will read in detail. Thanks for posting them. __________________ "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination." I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to. HAKUNA MATATA

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