Neo

WASHINGTON, Aug 1: India’s effort to make a two-fold strategic partnership with the US and China has further increased Pakistan’s “already remarkable” geopolitical importance, says a new study by a US think-tank. The wave of terrorist attacks which struck London on July 7 and 21 further increased Pakistan’s position as a key Western ally in the war against terror, says Federico Bordonaro, a University of Rome professor who authored the power and interest news report, titled “Pakistan: a Geopolitical Crux.”

Prof Bordonaro, a security analyst with the Chicago-based PINR, told Dawnthat Pakistan’s location at the confluence of South and Central Asian regions contribute to its geopolitical importance.

“Several foreign powers are interested in Pakistan as an outlet for energy resources in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan,” said Mr Bordonaro, who is currently studying the security problems of South Asia, particularly in reference to India’s effort to emerge as a major naval power in the Indian Ocean.

Prof Bordonaro believes that South and Central Asian regions would soon witness a major tug-of-war between the US and China with both wanting to further increase their influence in Pakistan.

“It will be very interesting to watch how influential people in the Pakistan Army and the ISI reorient their focus in this competition,” he said, recalling that when the US decided to sell F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan in March this year there were people in the Bush administration who argued that it would increase the army’s attachment to the US.

“If China gets stronger than it already is, it will be a problem for the US,” said Prof Bordonaro, adding that the Chinese could use Gwadar to counter India’s efforts to dominate the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea.

The Indo-US nuclear deal, signed on July 18, could also harm US efforts to maintain a nuclear balance between India and Pakistan, he argues. Prof Bordonaro believes that although the US could not prevent India and Pakistan from testing their nuclear devices in 1998, the Americans later decided not to create an imbalance of power in South Asia.

“But the US also has chosen India in order to balance China’s growing influence in the region and if you do so, it is very difficult not to cause an imbalance between Pakistan and India. This is the tragedy of power politics.”

Asked if the Indo-US nuclear deal could cause Pakistan to move away from the US, Mr Bordonaro said: “This is a possibility that is growing. It depends on how Indo-US relations develop in the near future and on the situation in Waziristan.”

Prof Bordonaro says that officials in Islamabad realize it’s not in their interest to move away from the US but they may try to balance growing Indo-US relations with a more pro-Chinese position. “If this happens, it will begin a very interesting and dangerous process in South Asia.”

A lot will also depend on how long this present administrative setup in Pakistan continues, said Prof Bordonaro, adding that the Americans still back the present setup. “They are not yet thinking about the post-Musharraf era, even though they lost some of confidence in him.”

Prof Bordonaro says Uzbekistan’s decision to ask the US to remove its military base has only added to Pakistan’s geopolitical position. Commenting on Uzbekistan’s move, he said both Russia and China were trying to counter US influence in Central Asia. “In Kyrgyzstan, which has allowed US military presence, we see an increase in US influence while in Uzbekistan we see its influence waning.”

LUND

it is inevitable that Pakistan will slowly continue it drift towards China, as the author rightfully points out. Whether with or without Musharraf.

It will be better for pakistan to get out of U.S influence, and hoky politics of neo-con terror. The sooner this happens, the better off the country will be.

Neo

Well eventhough China is Pakistan's all weather friend, I think Pakistan should manoever it self somewhere inbetween these powers.
Closer ties with US means better relation with its allies, we are already taking benefit out of it.
Even after Bush era, we want good relations with Washington

Sameer

Of course Pakistan is important, but for the wrong reasons.

The only time we hear about Pakistan or engage with Pakistan is when terrorism is an issue.

flame me all you want but the above is simple truth. If it weren't for Pakistan and terrorism, the term Pakistan would never even come up in world news.

vicky007

Pak spins on Indo-US-Sino axis

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/a...ow/1189305.cms

NEW DELHI: "India is sitting pretty and time is running out for Pakistan", says Dr Ashutosh Mishra, a Pakistan expert and a Research Fellow at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, (IDSA), the country's strategic think tank, responding to a report published by Power and Interest News Report (PINR).

The report claims that Pakistan has achieved remarkable geopolitical importance in a paper titled, "Pakistan: a Geopolitical Crux".

He adds, "The domestic situation in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) is improving with the Hurriyat agreeing to contest elections. The reunion of Pandits and Muslims in the state, the Pandits agreeing to come back to J&K plus the 5000-crore package have all brought back optimism, that is leading to domestic stability."

The PINR states that two recent events have increased its geopolitical importance. First, India's two-fold strategic partnership with China and the United States and second, the London attacks on July 7 and 21.

Manmohan's recent US visit has fuelled a debate among foreign policy analysts and security experts.

One side views the Indo-US relationship vis-à-vis the Sino-US and Indo-Pakistan backdrop and the other sees bilateral relationships driven by individual needs and requirements.

It is this debate, in a muddled manner, which runs as a leitmotif in the PINR report. "My advice to Pakistan is not to worry about the Indo-US rapprochement and growing bilateral relationships because bilateral relationships should be viewed case by case. Individual strengths and needs are the raison d'eter of bilateral relationships", says Dr Mishra.

Like how US and China built their own bilateral ties right from the seventies till yesterday's strategic bilateral talks between the two countries that concluded yesterday in Beijing chaired by Vice Foreign Minister Dai Binguo and the US Deputy Secretary of State, Robert Zoellick which ended on a positive note to continue the constructive relationship of cooperation increasing dialogue, building mutual trust and promoting cooperation.

"This puts an end to Bush's formulation of strategic competition from Clinton's strategic cooperation with China and the recent US-Sino initiatives to handle differences properly", says Dr Srikanth Kondapalli, a China expert and a Research Fellow at the IDSA.

He adds," The trilateral relationships of India, US and the China presents an interesting picture. Both US and China share a strategic relationship. China and the US already had six rounds of defence related consultative talks with the latest that has concluded in Beijing. The Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) is case of strategic relationship between India and the US."

Which has led to even joint military exercises between India and the US. But such a request that was proposed by Gen Richard Meyers was turned down by China indicating that China still doesn't 'trust' the US completely given China's relationship with Taiwan and Japan.

"But the Chinese military will conduct joint exercises with the Indian army in Rajasthan this year", says Dr Kondapalli. Would this mean India and China are slowly bolstering their ties? Which justifies the idea that bilateral relationships should be measured by strengths and the requirements of the countries involved.

bull

a soverign country is not under anyones influence.

To be is a big SHAME

__________________
What's the difference between people who pray in church and those who pray in casinos?
The ones in the casinos are serious.

Ray

The geostrategic equation of the area less India can be understood by this post I made elsewhere.

Lahori paa jee

Despite the best efforts of our neighbours to malign our position in the world , they have been unsuccessful. Reason truely stated by Neo.

Pakistan's importance cannot be ignored and it has always been a frontline state in many issues of Asia. Its because of Pakistan's strategic location.

The Watcher

Pakistan will have increasing importance as the days will pass by because of industrial revolution taking place in Pakistan. Aso Pakistan is soon to be become a comercial hub for trade, and thats why Gawadar Port is being developed which will effectively help Pakistans economy and become a modern state in the world. Pakistan has been modernized very much in past 3 years, if we stay with the same pace i put my money down that it will become another UK.

Su-47MKI

When it comes to training jihadi pigs, Pakistan is definetly a frontline state. As for other issues, even Indonesia bares more importance than Pakistan. And yes, Pakistan is in a strategic location for Al Qaeda since it can launch attacks in Afghanistan and India and then flee back into Pakistan....

The Watcher

So your really trying to call yourself a Indian pig.. oh i c..

Son, we all pakistanis know you bihindians are pigs..

Hold on! whats up with the urine drinking? Aj kuch zada hi peli?

667medic

As long as you fagots dont stop the rape and torture of Balochis, Gawdar will just be a pile of ****.

Balochistan Zindabad, Sabse pehla Balochistan.....

The Watcher

WTF are you talking about u stupid bihindian? Gawadar will kick on ur balls.

Balochistan Zindabad! Good luck bihindians in dividing us, but can't do ****!

well u can but in ur pants.

667medic

LOL Pakifagot cant even understand simple English.
Way to go Mr.Bugti, show that Gwadar is a pile of **** .

The Watcher

Will no bihindian will know! You urine drinkers will be nuked!