Pakistan: The State of Denial

Ray · 05-01-2005, 12:37 PM

VIEW: The state of denial —Syed Mansoor Hussain

The more vociferous a denial, the greater the chance that the denied story might just be true. During the decade of progress, the only way many of us found out that something had gone wrong somewhere in Pakistan was when the official press issued denials that anything had gone wrong anywhere

A quick scan of recent newspapers suggests that denial is everywhere. In only one day, the army denied that any part of the US armed forces was involved in training members of the Pakistani armed forces to fight terrorism. Then there was a denial about intrusion of US planes into Pakistani territory. Another denial came from the president about having made any U-turn on Kashmir. The leader of the Q-League denied that the party would ever work with the PPP. Leaders of the ARD denied that there was any split within their organisation. The government of Punjab denied that the policemen outside Mr Zardari’s residence were there to keep him in confinement. And, almost everybody is continuously denying any deal between the government and the PPP.

All this reminds me of the US country-western song about Cleopatra being the queen of “denial”. Good queen Cleo might have been the queen of denial but Pakistan can be truly called the state of denial. After all, in a place where few things go right and even fewer are what they seem to be, it would be difficult for anybody to take the blame or credit for anything at all.

From an historic perspective, this would seem entirely justified. Every government that has ever ruled Pakistan was followed by another that denied whatever good its predecessor might have done. As a matter of fact members of the previous governments are put in jail for having done a superlatively bad job.

However there are certain things about Pakistan that cannot be denied. It is a country of about a hundred and forty million, a majority of whom live in appalling conditions in spite of the foreign exchange reserves that are presently around twelve billion dollars. Also, it has never had a freely elected government that was allowed to finish its constitutional tenure. For most of its existence it has been ruled by the army either directly or indirectly. And, for all the importance attached to Kashmir, Pakistan has not been able to win it on the battlefield or in the court of world opinion.

Moreover, most Pakistanis are Muslims and quite conservative at that, making it impossible to impose any system of laws that is offensive to conservative sensibilities. As far as the war on terror is concerned, Pakistan is a close ally of the US and is collaborating as much as it possibly can.

So, a little bit about some of these undeniable things. First, there is the question of the flourishing economy and persistent poverty. The growth rate of the economy is pretty good and if it stays significantly above that of population growth, in time there could be considerable poverty alleviation. The present trends seem to provide some hope for the future. But that future is not going to be around that soon and the present group of leaders will probably be long gone by the time that happens. A problem with the present trends is that they never continue indefinitely.

The next undeniable fact is the expansive role of the army in non-defence related activities. This is perhaps the major conundrum facing the country. Short of another cataclysm like the one in 1971, it is extremely unlikely that the army is going to return to its primary function as the defender of the country’s borders. Therefore, however many denials might be issued from whatever quarters, the chances are that Pakistan is not going to become a functioning participatory democracy any time soon.

Another undeniable fact is that the major impulse among most Pakistani Muslims is towards conservatism. As such any attempt to bring about some sort of moderation, enlightened or otherwise is destined to fail. Conservatism is on the rise the world over and Pakistan cannot escape from its effects. Perhaps one of the reasons for this increase in conservatism is the communications revolution brought about by the Internet. Existing social structures are under assault and the traditional elite are going to do their best to prevent further erosion of their positions of power within the family as well as in the society around them.

It is also an undeniable fact that Pakistan is cooperating fully with the US in the amorphous war on terror. However much anybody might wish to deny it, the US is going to use Pakistani territory and other resources made available to it as it sees fit. Any attempt to prevent this from happening is going to create an intolerable situation for Pakistan. The best that is possible is maintaining a fig leaf of independence while collaborating as required.

As far as Kashmir is concerned, it is undeniable that India is not going to give any part of it to Pakistan. Therefore if indeed there is to be peace between these two countries, Pakistan will have to accept this. The only question is whether these two countries really want peace — not just the absence of war but rather the sort of relations that allow two neighbours to trade freely with each other and to have their citizens travel across the borders without excessive restrictions.

The most denied and possibly the most deniable of all things these days is the news about the impending deal between PPP and the government. Conventional wisdom suggests that such a deal is impossible. If however a deal does happen on account of immediate imperatives for the army-dominated government, it is unlikely to change much of anything except the faces in the armoured Mercedes that ply the roads and block traffic.

Finally, a word or two about denials issued by politicians and official spokespersons; the more vociferous a denial, the greater the chance that the denied story might just be true. Very early in life I learnt a rather important lesson. Never deny a rumour especially if it has some truth in it. The appropriate course of action is to ignore all such ‘rumours’ since a denial only gives them legitimacy. During the halcyon days of the decade of progress, the only way many of us found out that something had gone wrong somewhere in Pakistan was when the official press issued denials that anything had gone wrong anywhere.

Syed Mansoor Hussain has practised and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at smhmbbs70@yahoo.com

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...1-5-2005_pg3_2

Anoop C · 05-02-2005, 12:00 PM

On creative accounting in Pakistan:

http://www.dawn.com/2005/05/02/ebr1.htm

Quote:

During the brief period 1999-2001, seven million people were pushed below the poverty line. This represented the fastest growth in poverty in Pakistan’s history.

Quote:

The year 2002-03 was the first time that the economic managers claimed that the GDP growth rate had risen and exceeded the 5-percentage point mark. Partly the higher GDP growth rate in 2002-03 was obtained by changing the base year figures, i.e., the preceding year. For example, the growth rate in the Public Administration & Defence sector in the preceding year – 2001-02 – was reported to be as high as 18.2 percent. This enabled the GDP growth rate in 2001-02 to be shown at 3.6 percent. In the subsequent year, the 2001-02, the Public Administration & Defence sector growth rate was revised downwards by about two-thirds to 6.5 percent.

The lower base year figure raised the Public Administration & Defence sector growth rate in 2002-03 to 5.2 percent and the GDP growth rate to 5.1 percent. If Public Administration & Defence sector growth at 6.5 percent in 2001-02 is accepted, then the claimed GDP growth rate in 2001-02 appears to be an over-estimate; conversely, if growth at 18.2 percent is accepted, then the claimed GDP growth rate of 5.1 percent in 2002-03 appears to be exaggerated. Either way, the credibility of official claims is rendered suspect.

The underlying concerns about the data, and the claims based thereon, are heightened by inconsistencies. For example, manufacturing value added in 2003-04 is shown to have increased by 13.4 percent despite a decrease in industrial consumption of electricity, gas and oil by 19.2, 13.8 and 20.7 percent, respectively. This implies an increase of energy use efficiency of between 24 to 29 per cent between 2002-03 and 2003-04. The sharp enhancement in energy use efficiency in the manufacturing sector over the period of just one year raises questions of plausibility. An explanation is called for.

Suspicion that a part of the data is ‘manufactured’ to support claims of success is provided by a number of instances. One such glaring case is growth in tax receipts. The customs duty data for 10 out of 13 commodity groups reported in the Budget documents for the years 2002-03, 2003-04 and 2004-5 show the same growth rate. For example, the growth in customs duty receipts is a uniform 3.1 percent, 9.7 per cent, and 27.0 per cent for all 10 commodity groups for three years, respectively. That customs duty receipts have been shown to increase at the same rate for different commodity groups demands an explanation. Clearly, the data appears to have been ‘created’ by applying a uniform growth rate for the 10 commodity groups.

Yet again, tax revenue targets for 2002-03 and 2003-04 were set at Rs460.6 billion and 510.0 billion respectively. Interestingly, actual receipts were also shown to be Rs460.6 billion and Rs510.0 billion for the two years. In 2003-04, targeted and actual receipts of direct and indirect taxes were also shown to be almost exactly the same at Rs161 and Rs348 billion, respectively. Such absoluteness exactness in achieving revenue targets – and that too two years in a row – is not feasible. Clearly, the data cannot be relied upon.

On plain vanilla misreporting to the IMF to avail of loans for purchases that would otherwise have been unavailable:

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/nb/2000/nb0023.htm

Quote:

"In their discussion of the issue, Directors expressed serious concern that the erroneous data had misled IMF staff and the Executive Board about economic performance; prevented the formulation and implementation of timely corrective measures; and resulted in the design of an adjustment program that was partly based on inaccurate information. They also noted that the provision of inaccurate data had allowed Pakistan to make substantial purchases under the extended arrangement and the Compensatory and Contigency Financing Facility, and under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, that otherwise may not have been available.
---
They noted that the misreporting of fiscal data had in part resulted from negligence in compiling and reconciling the fiscal reports for 1997/98 and 1998/99. In addition, weaknesses in the fiscal accounting, reporting, and audit procedures--including the absence of systematic data reconciliation processes and a mechanism to fully involve the Accountant General Pakistan Revenue (AGPR) in the preparation of fiscal reports--contributed to the discrepancies in the fiscal data.

Since the irregularities happened between 1997 and 1999 under a civilian govt., we may see renewed calls on this board for continued military rule in Pakistan

.

Anoop C · 05-02-2005, 18:42 PM

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-5-2005_pg7_58

Press freedom ‘predators’ in 2004

PARIS: RSF released a 34-strong list of what it calls media freedom “predators” – leaders and organisations around the world it accuses of “direct responsibility for press freedom violations”.

RSF said that because of the individuals or organisations it named, “journalists have been murdered, imprisoned, physically attacked and threatened in 2004”.

New to the list are Bangladeshi Interior Minister Lutfozzaman Babor, Bangladesh’s Maoist party Purbobanglar, Ivory Coast’s Young Patriots militia, Gambian President Yahya Jammeh and Nigeria’s State Security Service. The list also includes the name of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. afp

indianguy4u · 05-06-2005, 07:25 AM

hey very good thread man ray

Ray · 05-06-2005, 12:16 PM

Thanks.

I sure would appreciate a post from Asim.

Asim Aquil · 05-06-2005, 16:19 PM

This thread doesn't deserver any respect outta me. Ray its another one of your "Post crap about Pakistan thread". You tried this before once, remember? The thread got locked by Iron...

Bet you thought there are fewer Pakistanis in the scene now, so lets give it another shot?

amit · 05-06-2005, 19:05 PM

Both Pak and B'desh. Both in denial. How pathetic!

Ray · 05-07-2005, 01:01 AM

Asim,

This is from Daily Times and not some non descript Urdu flame newspaper read by the chaiwalas for kicks!

Don't like Daily Times?

Like the Dung and Yawn?

If something is wrong in this report from a known newspaper of Pakistan, do educate.Why should this be locked?

It is from a reputed newspaper of Pakistan and it is facts and not fiction; at least that is what the paper indicates.

I am sure this is not crap or else, the editor would have been in the lock up. Remember the case of the editor who was jailed in Pakistan?

This is the US and not Pakistan. Read the thread on Pakistan news freedom? Thread don't get locked in WAB or in the US just because of autocratic kicks as it may happen in Pakistan.

I do hope you show where this article is wrong so that we can be educated. I asked you since you claim to be a journalist and journalists know how the system ticks.

Asim Aquil · 05-07-2005, 01:07 AM

I like the dailytimes very much, thank you. When I move to Pakistan, would hope to write for it as well.

As I said, you've just tried to make a "Post everything wrong about Pakistan, thread".

Ray · 05-07-2005, 01:09 AM

Not at all.

This was with facts and figures. Very alarming.

Wanted comments.

That's all.

I thought you would like it.

Don't journalists always write on what is wrong everywhere and very rarely what is going right!

Asim Aquil · 05-07-2005, 01:11 AM

The most marvelous thing about the dailytimes is, it has the strongest drive to turn Pakistan into a secular country.

Ray · 05-07-2005, 01:12 AM

Asim,

Your signature is below:

Degenerated

"Andaz apne dekhte hain aine main woh
Aur Yeh bhi dekhte hain, k koi dekhta naho
Thori si jo peeli hai, daaka toh nahi daala
Chori toh nahi ki hai... Hungama hai kyun barpa?"
-- Ghulam Ali

Very positive?

Ray · 05-07-2005, 01:13 AM

Quote:

The most marvelous thing about the dailytimes is, it has the strongest drive to turn Pakistan into a secular country.

A bad thing?

I though Jinnah said it was a good thing once he got Pakistan and said so in his first address.

Ray · 05-07-2005, 01:15 AM

Asim,

Cheerup.

Now go find someone who will tell you:

"If I could be anything I would be your tear, so I could be born in your eye, live down your cheek, and die on your lips."

Convert that in Urdu and let the poetic beauty resound!

Asim Aquil · 05-07-2005, 01:17 AM

LOL. Ray, seriously, use the Spam filter. Reading all those junk fwds can have an adverse affect on you.

05-01-2005, 12:37 PM	#1 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 25,738 Country:	Pakistan: The State of Denial VIEW: The state of denial —Syed Mansoor Hussain The more vociferous a denial, the greater the chance that the denied story might just be true. During the decade of progress, the only way many of us found out that something had gone wrong somewhere in Pakistan was when the official press issued denials that anything had gone wrong anywhere A quick scan of recent newspapers suggests that denial is everywhere. In only one day, the army denied that any part of the US armed forces was involved in training members of the Pakistani armed forces to fight terrorism. Then there was a denial about intrusion of US planes into Pakistani territory. Another denial came from the president about having made any U-turn on Kashmir. The leader of the Q-League denied that the party would ever work with the PPP. Leaders of the ARD denied that there was any split within their organisation. The government of Punjab denied that the policemen outside Mr Zardari’s residence were there to keep him in confinement. And, almost everybody is continuously denying any deal between the government and the PPP. All this reminds me of the US country-western song about Cleopatra being the queen of “denial”. Good queen Cleo might have been the queen of denial but Pakistan can be truly called the state of denial. After all, in a place where few things go right and even fewer are what they seem to be, it would be difficult for anybody to take the blame or credit for anything at all. From an historic perspective, this would seem entirely justified. Every government that has ever ruled Pakistan was followed by another that denied whatever good its predecessor might have done. As a matter of fact members of the previous governments are put in jail for having done a superlatively bad job. However there are certain things about Pakistan that cannot be denied. It is a country of about a hundred and forty million, a majority of whom live in appalling conditions in spite of the foreign exchange reserves that are presently around twelve billion dollars. Also, it has never had a freely elected government that was allowed to finish its constitutional tenure. For most of its existence it has been ruled by the army either directly or indirectly. And, for all the importance attached to Kashmir, Pakistan has not been able to win it on the battlefield or in the court of world opinion. Moreover, most Pakistanis are Muslims and quite conservative at that, making it impossible to impose any system of laws that is offensive to conservative sensibilities. As far as the war on terror is concerned, Pakistan is a close ally of the US and is collaborating as much as it possibly can. So, a little bit about some of these undeniable things. First, there is the question of the flourishing economy and persistent poverty. The growth rate of the economy is pretty good and if it stays significantly above that of population growth, in time there could be considerable poverty alleviation. The present trends seem to provide some hope for the future. But that future is not going to be around that soon and the present group of leaders will probably be long gone by the time that happens. A problem with the present trends is that they never continue indefinitely. The next undeniable fact is the expansive role of the army in non-defence related activities. This is perhaps the major conundrum facing the country. Short of another cataclysm like the one in 1971, it is extremely unlikely that the army is going to return to its primary function as the defender of the country’s borders. Therefore, however many denials might be issued from whatever quarters, the chances are that Pakistan is not going to become a functioning participatory democracy any time soon. Another undeniable fact is that the major impulse among most Pakistani Muslims is towards conservatism. As such any attempt to bring about some sort of moderation, enlightened or otherwise is destined to fail. Conservatism is on the rise the world over and Pakistan cannot escape from its effects. Perhaps one of the reasons for this increase in conservatism is the communications revolution brought about by the Internet. Existing social structures are under assault and the traditional elite are going to do their best to prevent further erosion of their positions of power within the family as well as in the society around them. It is also an undeniable fact that Pakistan is cooperating fully with the US in the amorphous war on terror. However much anybody might wish to deny it, the US is going to use Pakistani territory and other resources made available to it as it sees fit. Any attempt to prevent this from happening is going to create an intolerable situation for Pakistan. The best that is possible is maintaining a fig leaf of independence while collaborating as required. As far as Kashmir is concerned, it is undeniable that India is not going to give any part of it to Pakistan. Therefore if indeed there is to be peace between these two countries, Pakistan will have to accept this. The only question is whether these two countries really want peace — not just the absence of war but rather the sort of relations that allow two neighbours to trade freely with each other and to have their citizens travel across the borders without excessive restrictions. The most denied and possibly the most deniable of all things these days is the news about the impending deal between PPP and the government. Conventional wisdom suggests that such a deal is impossible. If however a deal does happen on account of immediate imperatives for the army-dominated government, it is unlikely to change much of anything except the faces in the armoured Mercedes that ply the roads and block traffic. Finally, a word or two about denials issued by politicians and official spokespersons; the more vociferous a denial, the greater the chance that the denied story might just be true. Very early in life I learnt a rather important lesson. Never deny a rumour especially if it has some truth in it. The appropriate course of action is to ignore all such ‘rumours’ since a denial only gives them legitimacy. During the halcyon days of the decade of progress, the only way many of us found out that something had gone wrong somewhere in Pakistan was when the official press issued denials that anything had gone wrong anywhere. Syed Mansoor Hussain has practised and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at smhmbbs70@yahoo.com http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...1-5-2005_pg3_2 Last edited by Ray : 05-01-2005 at 12:48 PM. Reason: Pressed the Enter by mistake

05-06-2005, 16:19 PM	#6 (permalink)
Asim Aquil Contra Naturum *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 06-11-04 Location: Dubai Posts: 8,129 Country:	This thread doesn't deserver any respect outta me. Ray its another one of your "Post crap about Pakistan thread". You tried this before once, remember? The thread got locked by Iron... Bet you thought there are fewer Pakistanis in the scene now, so lets give it another shot? __________________ -- Administrator @ Pakistan Defence: Defence.pk

05-07-2005, 01:01 AM	#8 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 25,738 Country:	Asim, This is from Daily Times and not some non descript Urdu flame newspaper read by the chaiwalas for kicks! Don't like Daily Times? Like the Dung and Yawn? If something is wrong in this report from a known newspaper of Pakistan, do educate.Why should this be locked? It is from a reputed newspaper of Pakistan and it is facts and not fiction; at least that is what the paper indicates. I am sure this is not crap or else, the editor would have been in the lock up. Remember the case of the editor who was jailed in Pakistan? This is the US and not Pakistan. Read the thread on Pakistan news freedom? Thread don't get locked in WAB or in the US just because of autocratic kicks as it may happen in Pakistan. I do hope you show where this article is wrong so that we can be educated. I asked you since you claim to be a journalist and journalists know how the system ticks. Last edited by Ray : 05-07-2005 at 01:08 AM.

05-07-2005, 01:12 AM	#12 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 25,738 Country:	Asim, Your signature is below: Degenerated "Andaz apne dekhte hain aine main woh Aur Yeh bhi dekhte hain, k koi dekhta naho Thori si jo peeli hai, daaka toh nahi daala Chori toh nahi ki hai... Hungama hai kyun barpa?" -- Ghulam Ali Very positive? Last edited by Ray : 05-07-2005 at 01:14 AM.

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05-02-2005, 18:42 PM	#3 (permalink)
Anoop C Contributor Join Date: 01-20-05 Posts: 396	http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-5-2005_pg7_58 Press freedom ‘predators’ in 2004 PARIS: RSF released a 34-strong list of what it calls media freedom “predators” – leaders and organisations around the world it accuses of “direct responsibility for press freedom violations”. RSF said that because of the individuals or organisations it named, “journalists have been murdered, imprisoned, physically attacked and threatened in 2004”. New to the list are Bangladeshi Interior Minister Lutfozzaman Babor, Bangladesh’s Maoist party Purbobanglar, Ivory Coast’s Young Patriots militia, Gambian President Yahya Jammeh and Nigeria’s State Security Service. The list also includes the name of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. afp

05-06-2005, 07:25 AM	#4 (permalink)
indianguy4u Real Madrid CF *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 03-07-05 Location: Mumbai Posts: 3,213 Country:	hey very good thread man ray

05-06-2005, 12:16 PM	#5 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 25,738 Country:	Thanks. I sure would appreciate a post from Asim.

05-06-2005, 19:05 PM	#7 (permalink)
amit Patron Join Date: 11-16-04 Location: California Posts: 287	Both Pak and B'desh. Both in denial. How pathetic!

05-07-2005, 01:07 AM	#9 (permalink)
Asim Aquil Contra Naturum *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 06-11-04 Location: Dubai Posts: 8,129 Country:	I like the dailytimes very much, thank you. When I move to Pakistan, would hope to write for it as well. As I said, you've just tried to make a "Post everything wrong about Pakistan, thread".

05-07-2005, 01:09 AM	#10 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 25,738 Country:	Not at all. This was with facts and figures. Very alarming. Wanted comments. That's all. I thought you would like it. Don't journalists always write on what is wrong everywhere and very rarely what is going right!

05-07-2005, 01:11 AM	#11 (permalink)
Asim Aquil Contra Naturum *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 06-11-04 Location: Dubai Posts: 8,129 Country:	The most marvelous thing about the dailytimes is, it has the strongest drive to turn Pakistan into a secular country.

05-07-2005, 01:15 AM	#14 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 25,738 Country:	Asim, Cheerup. Now go find someone who will tell you: "If I could be anything I would be your tear, so I could be born in your eye, live down your cheek, and die on your lips." Convert that in Urdu and let the poetic beauty resound!

05-07-2005, 01:17 AM	#15 (permalink)
Asim Aquil Contra Naturum *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 06-11-04 Location: Dubai Posts: 8,129 Country:	LOL. Ray, seriously, use the Spam filter. Reading all those junk fwds can have an adverse affect on you.

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