Ray

Cage the tiger
The West’s over-dependence on General Parvez Musharraf is frightening.

15 February 2005: The United States and Britain are exercising extraordinary discretion in nudging General Pervez Musharraf to go. The Commonwealth declared last week that Musharraf ought to quit from his dual role as president and military chief by 2007 when national elections are due. The US state department, which has a new secretary, Condoleezza Rice, endorsed this position, adding that it expected international-standard elections in 2007 in which all political parties participated.

That is not all. Diplomats say that Rice raised the issue of return of democracy in Pakistan with British foreign secretary Jack Straw in her first European visit since her confirmation, testimony to how much importance the US suddenly places in democratic, moderate Pakistan. But in deference to an ally against terror, the US has pulled back from exerting direct pressure on Pakistan and General Musharraf, preferring Straw for that role.

Straw during his Pakistan visit is expected to broach the subject with Musharraf. As our published Intelligence (“UK to pressure Musharraf on democracy,” 14 February 2005) says yesterday, Straw’s position will exceed that of both the US and the Commonwealth, impressing on Musharraf to hasten the process of returning democracy to Pakistan, and withdrawing from his own role as military president soonest. Second, Straw will demand the unconditional return of exiled political leaders like Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharief, while Musharraf insists that they stand trial for abuse and misuse of office.

What is the provocation for this sudden pressure on Musharraf? This is a grey question, because circumstances have not suddenly turned against him, although they are generally fairly bad. Last year, he was under considerable pressure, surviving two Al-Qaeda and military-inspired assassination attempts, by October, he was over the hump in regard to generals opposed to him in the Pakistan army, in the main, General Mohammad Aziz, who retired with a few other troublesome colleagues, and by December-end, the deadline for Musharraf to shed his uniform had expired, his promises to the opposition MMA broken, but there was no great ill-effect of it.

So why this sudden mounting pressure this year? Diplomats have no single reason to suggest, but one suspects, the US and Britain have realised the danger of loading all their anti-terrorist demands and demanded reforms and moderation of Pakistan on one man, that too a man in uniform, with no democratic institutional support and only the grudging backing of the army. The army, but in particular two corps commanders, are enraged with US pressure, their anger heightened by American demands to screen all vehicles, including military vehicles, coming from NWFP and Baluchistan for contraband and drugs.

The US believes the Pakistan army officer corps is involved in drug smuggling, an old and proven charge since at least the time of General Zia-ul-Haq, and recently, New York customs detained some Pakistani military officials for over two hours, while their baggage was intensively searched. In her meeting with Straw, Rice talked about reorganising the Pakistan army, to contain the growing internal opposition to the US, and Straw will presumably communicate this to Musharraf.

Whatever the reason for pressuring Musharraf, not to be overly dependant on him, or to balance off the first free elections in Iraq in years, or demands on Nepal King Gyanendra to restore democracy, all events situated in Asia, it is clear that the generalissimo has to go. South-Asia watchers like Stephen Cohen are mistakenly attributing all manner of statesmanly qualities to Musharraf, including that he wants to return Pakistan to Jinnah’s secular vision, when the reality is that Musharraf is alive only because no assassin has succeeded so far. To base all hopes, aspirations and policies on one man, however malleable, is dangerous and foolhardy, and General Zia’s explosive death in midair tells it all.

Pakistan is not Turkey, and Musharraf can never be Ataturk, with his ideas of paternalistic dictatorship. The times have changed, we are in the middle of an Islamic resurgence, not the end of the Ottoman Caliphate, as in Ataturk’s case, and Pakistan has tasted democracy. Only on democracy can the West pin all its hopes, of a moderate Pakistan, which abandons terror as state policy, lives at peace with its neighbours, and becomes a benign example for the rest of the Islamic world.

The whole Pakistani logic for a praetorian state is flawed, that it needs its disproportionately large army and nuclear weapons to guard against India, when it provoked all the four wars with it. Because the Pakistan military is so large and powerful vis-à-vis the civil society, it needs to be satisfied on so-called national interests and national demands, and to satisfy the first, terror groups like the Harkat variants, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Toiba, and so on, are nurtured, and of the demands, the preeminent one is Jammu and Kashmir, to be wrested from India even at the cost of Pakistan’s destruction. This is Pakistan army chauvinism at play, not any core national interest, which is again a function of a very large and predatory military.

This is like raising a tiger at home, and then complaining about all the meat it consumes, and the threat to the lives of inmates. The point is to cage the tiger, defang it, take it away from society, and this is what needs to be done to the Pakistan army. It needs to be caged, barracked, reduced in strength, and disarmed of weapons of war, tactical, strategic and nuclear, and only allowed the small arms required for self-defence. Then see how the threat from the Pakistan army to civil society vanishes overnight, the threat from Pakistani expansionism to Afghanistan and India evaporates, and Pakistan suddenly realises the merits of good neighbourly relations.

All the fundamentalisation, radicalisation of Pakistan, has stemmed from the army, the army that was jihadised by General Zia. The impact of this on elected governments is too well chronicled, but it also produced Sunni fundamentalism/ terrorism, peculiarly called Deobandi/ Tabligi fundamentalism in Pakistan, which in turn provoked Shia wrath within the military against Zia, leading to his assassination.

While the Sunni Al-Qaeda is targeting Musharraf for his American friendship, Shia divisions have cropped up anew in the military under him, provoked more recently by his assistance to America in the planned hostilities against Iran. It is all mixing up to a deadly cocktail in Pakistan, and it could blow up in the face of America anytime. Plus, the West is depending on him to unravel the Kashmir tangle, and India is slowly getting sucked into dependence on him, even though the situation is very fragile and shaky in Pakistan.

What to do? Democracy has to be restored, no question, but elected governments will remain imperiled by the twin forces of the military and jihadis. The scope of American reorganisation plans for the Pakistan army must be widened, including massive force reduction and barracking, and the jihadis have to be ruthlessly disarmed and the willing among them reeducated and re-employed.

Musharraf could be the man to do all this, but he should be tempted only if he chucks up his uniform. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are at the core of Sunni/ Wahabi fundamentalism and terrorism, and the world would not be safe until both these countries are democratised, denuked, and coerced to attend to the development, health, education and employment needs of their populations. In different ways, both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are becoming failed states, and the sooner this is recognised, the better.

lulldapull

As usual an Indian article. But nevetheless, some truth to it, some speculation....and as always some propaganda.

All these speculations and propaganda can end Ray...if Kashmir imbroglio is resolved to both parties satisfaction. Its not an impossible event...mind you.

amit

Lulldapul, I've picked up a Pakistani newspaper once in California and oh my god, how biased it is. At leat Indian newspapers try to not bash Pakistanis on every little thing. Anyway, the US media is also biased. When Dish Network carried CNN International, I saw the US war in a whole different perspective.

lulldapull

Yaar Amit at least Indians are educated ppl! Most Pakistani paindoo jhuggay are just jahil yaar! Very backward. I know.........

Its hard for me to even get along with them.

but as far as this India pakistan thing is concerned the problem is that of a nasty divorce!.....I hope that was the fairest analogy to draw upon. But that is really what it is. A very bad divorce.

now in its bhanchod 60th year! ...but as you ahve seen Indian Pakistani here in the u.S.....aik doosray key ghaand say bahar hee naheen nikaltay...once they see each other. ...At least north Indians and pakistanis..

Rahul

Lull, wtf do "paindoo", "jhuggay", and "jahil" mean? Sorry but my hindi/urdu/"whatever the f**k ur speaking" isn't very good. As for most Pakistanis being backwards, I don't live in Chicago near Devon street or anything so I don't know but I've heard that Indians and Pakistanis over there act as if they were in India and Pakistan. That could explain some of your...observations (didn't u say you live around there Lull?). Where I live though, it's a small town and pretty much all the Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi families I know get along well enough.

Good analogy btw with the nasty divorce. Going w/ what u said, Kashmir is the kid they're both fighting over then (or maybe the nice car or condo or lot, who knows).

I agree, after mf-ing 60 years, you'd think ppl would get over stuff.

I don't get this part of your last paragraph (the urdu/hindi/wtf: "one ____ of _______ is not ____" ???) either. Sorry, but I was just wondering, if it isn't too much trouble, could you translate some of that? I really am interested in hearing what you have to say. It's just I don't know much Hindi/Urdu/whatever.

__________________
Am out of town for a while and then have tons of work coming up at school. Will be back once that's all done.

lulldapull

Paindoo jhugga is a typical and very uncouth punjabi villager!
The 0ne that cusses with a "Oh bhaaaancho"! in the beginning of every sentnce!

And what that sentence emans is that once these Indians and Pakii's see one another...then thats it man! Its like a fatal attraction! All differences go flying out the window and they both become real good buddies!

oh yeah! you should see them at Devon yaar! Both communities live right next to one another, as if that partition never happened!

Dono saalay gaandoo hain! Very strange!

amit

Ludapull, how can you call Indains in the US backwards? Indians, along with the Japense, are the most sucessful, richest, and hapiest ethnic groups in the US. Indians have a 75K income, while the Pakistani-Americans have an average 50K income.

lulldapull

Abaay I called pakistanis backward! Not Indians!

Samudra

True though it is , this bit is funny.

lemontree

The US and everyone do not have any alternative to challenge Musharraf. Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are thieves who have ruined Pakistani economy, they are just poster stars for democracy.
If Musharraf has survived for so long, it is because of his political acumen and hold over the army. Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif would'nt have lasted this long, with the type of domestic terror and economic termoil that Pakistan is undergoing.

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Cheers!...on the rocks!!