lemontree

Understanding Pakistan's Strategy

The Indian diplomatic attempt to stop the sale F-16s is at best a knee jerk reaction. I am not aware whether the Indian political and intelligence establishment has an understanding of the strategy adopted by Pakistan and if they have any plans to counter it. My understanding of the situation is as under (I would request Indian members to contribute without flaming – A match stick and humans both have heads, one burns with a little friction. Which head do we wish to have – the matchstick or the human head?)

Coming back to the topic. Till 9th September 2001, the Pakistani economy was on the verge of collapse, and its conventional military capability was severely depleted and Pakistan was getting nowhere in its aims of defeating India and had in fact harmed itself more.

9th September 2001 changed all that and Pakistan became an ally in the WOT, and the Pakistani establishment assumed that it could continue terror striking in India, but the Indian reaction after 13th December 2001, to mobilize the armed forces was un-nerving to Pakistan and the world. Inspite of all the rhetoric the Pakistanis knew that they would be clobbered in a war with India.

US intervention held India back, with pressure on Pakistan to denounce terror and the “usual be nice”, meaning that the terrorists should not cross a threshold unbeatable to India. Then following the terror attacks in UK and the direct implication of Pakistan in the 7/7 other international terror incidents, forced the ISI to calm down. Hence, the absence of any major incident abroad and minor incidents in India till the 7/11 terror attack.

What is at stake for Pakistan if it continued with its earlier policy?

Pakistan was liable to loose out on major military supplies if it seemed to be a terror supporting country. They had to talk and show the world that they are working sincerely to bring peace. Hence, the following steps were taken:

- A ceasefire was announced and guns fell silent on the LOC.
- Announcements were made by the ruling military dictator of Pakistan that “no Pakistani territory would be used by jihadi groups to cause terror in India”.
- Buses were started to help people on either side of the LOC to interact.
- Cricket matches were held, and the new bonhomie beamed by the media to the world showed hope for a changing era of animosity.
- Visits by the Indian and Pakistani diplomats to wither country started.
- “Banning” terror groups operating in Kashmir and India.

The US saw that the sub-continent has become peaceful and the threat of war had receded. Financial aid to Pakistan continued writing off all prior debts that had befallen the nation in the wake of the 1998 post nuclear test sanctions. The assistance in the WOT had helped Pakistan tide over its immediate economic problems. Now remained, strengthening the depleted military capability.

Pakistan had to now continue the charade of peace measures to ensure that military supplies required from the US don’t get stalled. If one noticed the Pakistani response to India accusations after the Mumbai blasts, that there was a sharp contrast from the previous such responses. Musharraff was mellow in a lounge suit (khaki was avoided) and looked the picture of innocence when he “offered to help India in the investigations”, and his “pleas” of not blaming Pakistan without proof. What would Pakistan do with hard proof, if presented? They will simply refute it.

The global powers that matter are happy as long as there is no war that upsets their apple cart in the region.

So what are the options open to India?
Passive measures:
- Call Pakistan’s bluff, give them proof for terrorist bases in Pakistan and show it to the world as well.
- Prevent Pakistan’s access to the Indian market and elsewhere in the region where India can influence matters, even if it is tantamount to economic blackmail.
- Look eastwards and develop the highway linking South East Asia with India.
- No dialogue on Kashmir.

Active measures:
The fallacy of old age belief that a stable and secure Pakistan is a beneficial to India and the region must have dawned to many an observer. The more stable Pakistan gets – the more rabid their army become towards India. The only solution is a harried and weak Pakistani Army.

- Develop the Balochi and Gilgit insurgencies.
- Proactive elimination of terrorist leaders and ISI officials in PoK and Nepal, irrespective of diplomatic immunity.
- Harsh measures in J&K, arresting all separatist Hurriyat leaders (their boycott of the peace talks indicates collusion with Pakistani designs).
- Use the Punjab method, of an eye for an eye.
- Scrap Article 370. Get the Kashmiri Pundits back into the valley.
- Develop the dams on the Jhelum and Chenab.
- Engage Bangladesh and work towards elimination of ISI’s operation and support bases.

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Cheers!...on the rocks!!

Archer

LT

I think India should put the pressure on Pak anywhich way they can & maintain it. The F-16s are ok, the armaments package is not- the more we press on this issue the better for us & the IAF at wartime.

Frankly, in the ballyhoo over the nuke deal, we have compromised too much. I hate to say this, but the UPA is pathetic but the institutional malaise in the babucracy is far worse.

I propose the above as a passive measure & fully agree with all your other measures!

Finally, a kindred spirit!

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Karmani Vyapurutham Dhanuhu

My bow is stretched for its task

lemontree

Your concern is valid. But as a former infantier and a student of COIN and insurgency, those F-16s can be fried any time with a section 81mm or 120mm mortars, by a band of guerillas. A trained bunch of guerillas can keep the GE F-16 factory running in Texas as PAF would need replacements for those F-16 sqns.

667medic

Amen to that.
Pakistan was supposed to be more developed than S.Korea in 1965, it seems that the S.Koreans even sent an economic delegation there to study the "miracle".
That never stopped Pak from launching the 65 war.
GOI must follow a policy of no mercy for the enemey........

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Seek Save Serve Medic

667medic

BTW, I am seriously surprised that the bureaucrats don't seem to have even half the brain as Cpt LT.

667medic

Is it possible to arm the Pundits and the Ladakhis with proper weapons....

vinay60000

sir we had given them aerial photos of the terrosrist camp few years ago i donot think any thing happened ,if you remember india had claimed that pakistan is involved in illegal nuke operation but pakistan never accepted it but when western goverment came with proof only then they accepted thier deed ,this people will not take any thing by indians even hard proof will be insufficent for them

Maximus

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Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage.

Archer

LT, given the past history of Indo-Pak conflicts I think it would be very hard if not impossible for an insurgent group to get at those F-16's. IMHO, the planes are not such an issue as are their munitions- India should lobby to make these birds fancy toys, ie all shiny & stuff but without the #'s of munitions Pak has asked for, that actually make them a threat.

Archer

They are craven players of power politics. Kissing a politicians ass and making a high office is the ultimate solace for a babu, not ensuring that India's security is finally guaranteed- for as long as possible anyways. That job is left to the next incumbent. Sure, there are many good apples- but the a$s ki$$ers have risen to the top, ie the present NSA.

Akshay

Capt. LT, I am sure if not an armyman you would've certainly been a news editor. Your stature as a poster is unparallel amongst Indians on WAB.

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If at first you don't succeed, call it v1.0!

platinum786

Gilgit is a non issue folks, nobody cares what a few people do there, nobody cares how hard they are crushed, as long as they are crushed. Also your too late with Bugti, in the last 3 weeks over 70 commanderes including bugti's own family have surrendered, 900 fighters from his side and the accounts of the 42 most influental people in his tribe have been frozen, with no money to buy mercanaries we'll see what Bugti will do.

I can garuntee if we put a price o his head of a few million dollars his own children will hand him to us.

come on, lets get those creative juices flowing, let see what else you can come up with.

Archer

I guess that must be why you boys get so worked up over "RAW in Baluchistan" etc etc..and the tons of lurid prose against them pesky infidels..

I mean tough talk apart, when the shoe is on the other foot, it sure pinches! And badly at that!

lemontree

Archer,
Only, because its never been tried.

lemontree

Village defence platoons (VDPs) are instituted, but it is difficult for them to defend a village as villages in those mountains are spread over a large distance. A more compact re-organisation of villages (like the kibbutz defences of Israel in the 1940s) need to be undertaken for VDPs to be effective.

This structure will also encourage formation of agri co-op societies to enhance revenue generation of the smaller farmers.